Week 9 Picks

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Has a team ever been outscored 89-10 its first two games, then gone on a 4-1 run? Suddenly, the Chiefs are right in thick of the playoff hunt. The Dolphins are not, and despite a competitive two game streak, no team likes to play the Chiefs on the road. You heard the crowd in Monday night’s contest against the Chargers, right?

Atlanta Falcons -7 @ Indianapolis Colts

Quietly, despite the lack of a pass rush, and inconsistent play from rookie wide receiver Julio Jones, the Falcons find themselves ranked 13th and 6th in offense and defense, respectively. The Colts are sitting pretty at 24th and 32nd. Moving on…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints -6

The Saints just lost to the 0-6 Rams. Do you honestly think they’re losing this game?

New York Jets -1 @ Buffalo Bills

I trust the Jets defense more than I trust the Bills offense. Buffalo’s defense would be amongst the worst in the league if it wasn’t for their mighty turnover differential (they’ve forced 19 turnovers, second most behind the Jets). History and the laws of statistics say that Buffalo’s turnover differential returns to the mean.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys -10

Can someone explain how Tony Romo didn’t even target wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin last Sunday against the Eagles until the second half? He realizes it’s arguably the best pass catching tandem in the league, right?

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans -11

After reading THIS about the Brown’s offense, I’ll struggle to favor them again the rest of the season. I mean, seriously?

San Francisco 49ers -5 @ Washington Redskins

Wasn’t that 3-1 start fun? The Redskins have been outscored 76-33 since the fast start, including being shut out by the Buffalo Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans -1

Another gut feeling. Tennessee isn’t as bad as they’ve shown the past couple of weeks.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders -4

As long as Tim Tebow keeps doing Tim Tebow like things (meaning throwing wildly inaccurate passes, taking comical amounts of sacks, and ripping off a handful of spectacular runs per game) I’ll keep picking against the Broncos.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots -6

The blueprint for beating the Patriots: play lots of man coverage, pressure Brady without blitzing, and control the time of possession battle handily. New York can rush the passer with their vaunted front four, but their pass defense is a middling 15th in the NFL.

St. Louis Rams +7 @ Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb is listed as doubtful for Sunday, which means John Skelton will get his first start of the season. In five games last season, Skelton completed 47.6 percent of his passes for 662 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He averaged less than four yards per pass attempt in two games. I rest my case.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ San Diego Chargers

Michael Lombardi had this money quote in his Wednesday column, “A few years ago the Chargers gained a reputation for being an extremely talented team that underachieved. But now it seems everyone still thinks they are that elite team, while in reality they are a team in transition, in need of more talent.” I think that sums it up quite succinctly.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Historically, this is a close game. But I don’t trust Baltimore’s offense at all. AT ALL. I didn’t before the season, and I surely don’t now.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles -8

Philadelphia has gotten to opposing quarterbacks 22 times—sixth in the league. I fear for Jay Cutler’s life anytime he has to face an elite pass rushing defense.

Upset of the Week: New York Jets OVER Buffalo Bills

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Baltimore Ravens

Pounding of the Week: Houston Texans OVER Cleveland Browns

Last Week: 6-7

Overall: 59-54-7