Week 10 Picks

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles -10

I don’t really need to go into detail here, do I? You’re comfortable with Philadelphia’s pass rush vs. Arizona’s offensive line? You’re okay with Arizona’s secondary (According to the Football Outsiders, the league’s 29th ranked pass defense) vs. Philly’s speedy wideouts? Speaking of Arizona’s secondary, I noticed that rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson was on Michael Lombardi’s midseason All-Pro team. Yes, he’s an incredible punt returner, but have you seen him in coverage?

Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers -2

Let’s get something straight: the Titans aren’t good. Chris Johnson doesn’t even deserve to be a starting halfback at this point, and without Kenny Britt, Tennessee’s passing attack has fallen off a cliff…and so has their defense. Whereas it was a top five defense during the first half of the season, it has now plummeted to 21st in the league.

Houston Texans -5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let’s get something else straight: The Bucs aren’t as bad as the Titans, but they aren’t great either. Quarterback Josh Freeman’s touchdown to interception ratio plummeted from 25-6 last season to 8-10 this season. Wide Receiver Mike Williams—a borderline Pro Bowl candidate last year—is averaging below ten yards a catch and has snagged only one touchdown pass. That sums up Tampa Bay’s current offensive struggles quite succinctly.

Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins -1

I will NEVER understand what possessed Matt Moore to throw for 244 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions last Sunday against the Chiefs. Here’s what I DO understand: John Beck is horrendous. So is Rex Grossman. We deal in absolutes here, and as far as we know, the Dolphins have the edge in the Quarterback battle. Alright, that’s all I’ve got. I suggest you avoid this game…

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts +10

Can you F’ing believe the Colts are eight losses away from drafting the greatest pro prospect since John Elway? This pick stems from the simple belief that karma won’t allow the Colts to ‘earn’ the number one pick, just like karma decided to make the Raiders semi-competent the year the Patriots owned their first round pick. Let’s go Curtis Painter!

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs -4

The Chiefs were just blown out by the previously hapless Dolphins…that means they’re storming back with a dominating win to restore confidence only to lose again the following week, right?

Buffalo Bills +9 @ Dallas Cowboys

Here’s the thing about Buffalo’s loss last week to the Jets: it wasn’t that the Bills looked so bad, more so that the Jet’s defense looked so good. Thankfully for the Bills, Dallas’ defense has seen a drastic drop-off the past couple of weeks. Especially against the run game, where the Cowboys were once ranked in the top five but now reside at 23rd overall. Have at it, Fred Jackson.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5

Are we sure the Saints are good? According to the Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, the Saints defense is only a smidge better than the Patriots—widely regarded as one of the worst units in the NFL. They’re especially weak against the run, and the Falcons have one of the better running backs in the league. Quietly, Atlanta’s defense has had a solid season…despite the lack of a consistent pass rush.

St. Louis Rams +7 @ Cleveland Browns

I picked the Rams last week because I liked what I saw from a dominating win over the Saints. Predictably, they fell flat on their face. BUT, keep in mind that if it wasn’t for a botched field goal, they would have won. They’re better than the Browns, they just are.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Something else we need to get straight: The Bengals are good, not great. You realize the teams they’ve beaten are a combined 16-32, right? This is a pretty obvious back-down-to-Earth game for the Bengals. Now that I’ve said that I’m looking forward to a 23-20 Cincinnati win. Just call me Nostradamus.

Baltimore Ravens -6 @ Seattle Seahawks

I suppose this is a possible let down game after narrowly escaping with a win over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. But what the hell, it’s the Seahawks, the league’s 26th ranked offense up against the league’s best defense. That matchup is too one-sided to argue with.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers -3

East to West coast, possible let-down game for the Giants, a bad matchup for their defense, and what will be an invisible running game all add up to a Giants loss. If that sounds ridiculously arbitrary, it is. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from picking games the past two years, it’s that the smarter you try to become the worse your picks turn out. Don’t ask me why, the NFL is crazy yo.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears -4.5

I think the Bears might be a good team. For all the hate we toss Jay Cutler’s way he’s right up there with Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Michael Vick as one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL. He really is good enough to carry Chicago’s offense now that the Bears have, you know, decided to protect him. As a famous philosopher once said, he’s pretty good when he’s on his two feet.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets -2.5

The Jets are flat-out better this season. Their secondary is good enough to shut down New England’s cadre of pass catchers, and Rex Ryan has always been able to get pressure on Brady with exotic blitz packages. Oh, and New England’s defense has a habit of making even the most mediocre quarterbacks look really, really good. Say hello to the first three game losing streak in a long, long, long time Patriots Nation…

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -9

The Patriots fan in me refuses to believe that the Packers will go 16-0 (that’s my record, dammit!), but tomorrow night ain’t gonna be their first loss. In other news, let’s stop with the ‘Packers might be the greatest team in history’ bullshit that will surely crescendo to a fever pitch if the Pack manage to reach 10-0. You’ll be hearing a lot more from me if that happens…

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts OVER Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock of the Week: New York Jets OVER New England Patriots

Pounding of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles OVER Arizona Cardinals

Last Week: 6-7-1

Overall: 65-61-8