Week 4 Picks

I went 3-13 last week. God help me if that ever happens again. Betting against the spread is harder than it looks people.

Without further ado, my week four picks:

Detroit Lions +1.5 @ Dallas Cowboys



We’re here folks; we’re at the point where Calvin Johnson can singlehandedly swing games. Dallas doesn’t have a soul who can cover him and as we saw against the Buccaneers, he WILL win games. In other news, Tony Romo is still hurting, Miles Austin is out, Dez Bryant is a likely scratch (and even if he does play he won’t be close to 100 percent) and Felix Jones continues to play with a dislocated shoulder. That's basically every key player on their offense either out or seriously hurting.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears -5

Last season the Bears went 8-3 against non-playoff teams. They might not be great and they certainly can’t protect jay Cutler, but they’re good enough to beat the Panthers at home—trust me. Don’t get swept up in this Carolina upset pick; Chicago is the better team.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Occasionally, you just have to ride it. I’ve doubted Fitzpatrick for three straight weeks now and each week he has politely shoved it back into my face. I’m riding Fitzmagic until his wizardry subsides…

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns +3

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Colt McCoy is like a poor man’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s definitely got some FITZMAGIC in him. But enough to beat the Titans? Tentatively, I think so. How long can Tennessee rely on Matt Hasselbeck, considering he hasn’t played a full 16 game season in four years? Chris Johnson hasn’t shown us anything—ANYTHING—in three games, and I’m afraid he might not turn it around this season. With the loss of Kenny Britt Tennessee’s offense will take a step back and the Browns will be there to capitalize.

Minnesota Vikings -6 @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is an awful, awful team. Not only are they unwatchable, but somewhere along the way Todd Haley angered the football gods. How else can we explain the multitudes of injuries they’ve suffered? Minnesota could be 3-0 right now if they figured out how to play football in the second half. Just be careful if they lead the Chiefs 24-3 at halftime. You were warned.

Washington Redskins -7 @ St. Louis Rams

Rex Grossman is the most predictable quarterback on Earth. As Grossman rolled out of the pocket Monday night with Anthony Spencer hot on his trail, I knew instantaneously that a strip-sack for the game was coming. But give Grossman a decent lead ask him to milk it? He can do that. There’s no way St. Louis can score on the surprisingly great Washington defense.

New Orleans Saints -10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville quarterbacks have averaged 124 passing yards per game and have thrown one passing touchdown to five interceptions. Are they version 2.0 of the 10’-11’ Cardinals? I think that tells you everything you need to know. Can we move on?

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans -3

Do you know how excited I was when Houston put up 13 quick points on the Saints? Do you know how bitter and full of snark I was when they lost? They’re a good team, they just need to figure out how to score in the red zone…otherwise they would have laid 40+ points on the Saints. Meanwhile, the Steelers beat the Colts only because of the Kerry Collins-Curtis painter dynamic. Imagine if Peyton Manning was playing...

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

San Francisco is blessed with a strong defense and is always a few Ted Ginn kick returns away from blowing the game open, but per the Football Outsiders, their offense is the 29th best in the NFL. They can’t run the ball and Alex Smith has been efficient yet decidedly unspectacular (504 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception on the season). This will all be tested by Philly’s elite pass defense on Sunday.

New York Giants -5 @ Arizona Cardinals

Look, the Giants can do one thing really, really well: rush the passer. Kevin Kolb is skittish under pressure, loves to throw off his back foot and if it weren’t for the greatness of Larry Fitzgerald would be in some seriously deep crap right now. It hurts my soul, but I’ve got to go with the Giants.

Atlanta Falcons -5 @ Seattle Seahawks



It’s true; Atlanta has been mediocre to start the 2011 season. They lost to Tampa Bay last Sunday because they were called for encroachment on a play in which the Bucs were going to simply kneel the football to take some more time off the clock. But it’s also true that Tarvaris Jackson is still quarterbacking the Seahawks. That doesn’t sit well with me…

Miami Dolphins +1 @ San Diego Chargers

It happens every year; the Chargers simply suck in September. Pencil it in with permanent marker as long as Norv Turner is coaching. San Diego blew a game in New England because of four turnovers, barely beat the Chiefs and needed a second-half comeback to defeat the Vikings. Oh, and Philip Rivers has quietly had a bad three weeks. He’s thrown six interceptions to four touchdowns, and for the first time since 2007 he doesn’t have a Quarterback Rating above 100. The Chargers are gonna’ blow this one; I can feel it.

New England Patriots -8 @ Oakland Raiders

This contest will go one of two ways:

Option A: Darren McFadden has a dominant day on the ground; Oakland accumulates 180+ rushing yards and control the time of possession something like 34 to 27. They keep Brady off of the field, pressure him all day with that stellar front four, and don’t allow him to pick their weak—and injured—secondary apart. They win 31-28.

Option B: Belichick’s defense does what it does best (take away the opponent’s greatest strength, like how the Patriots eliminated Antonio Gates in week two) and contains Oakland’s number one ranked rushing attack. Jason Campbell can’t get it done through the air and Brady puts together a masterpiece performance after the Buffalo debacle. New England wins 38-20.

The Oakland pick is cute, but historically, you shouldn’t pick against the Patriots after a loss. Seriously, since the Brady-Belichick era began they’ve only lost back-to-back games five times, and only twice since 2006. Make the safe pick.

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers -10



Tom Brady has put up video game-like numbers in 2011, but Aaron Rodgers has very quietly been the best player in football. His stat line: 917 yards, 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, 72 percent of passes completed and 8.9 yards per attempt. There is no way he doesn’t light up the 29th best pass defense in football. NO CHANCE.

New York Jets +1 @ Baltimore Ravens

The Jets have been a little disconcerting through three weeks of football. They can’t run the ball (26th per DVOA), struggled to stop the run against Oakland and seem to be missing an identity. They used to rely on the running game and a stellar defense, but they seem to be moving towards a pass heavy offense. Mark Sanchez hasn’t shown us that he’s ready. I trust that New York can turn it around and right the ship, but running back Shonn Greene’s lack of production has to be concerning. He’s gone for only 134 yards on 41 attempts this season. LaDainian Tomlinson has been terrific, but we saw how he broke down late in the 2010 season.

But I trust Baltimore even less and this is the best defense they’ve faced all year. I think the Jets will be fired up for this one…aren’t you excited for Rex Ryan’s jiggling neck fat?!?!

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6

Bet against THE PAINTER at all costs. Also, isn’t there a way Goodell can pull some strings and replace the Colt’s FOUR night games with something better? Just remember after Painter throws three picks and the Colts offense accumulates under 200 yards of offense that we get this three more times during the season. What did ESPN do to deserve this?

Last Week: 3-13

Overall: 20-28

Upset of the Week: Miami Dolphins OVER San Diego Chargers

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions OVER Dallas Cowboys

Pounding of the Week: Green Bay Packers OVER Denver Broncos