He’s been nothing short of incredible. Just from watching him do his thing, it appears that quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having a season unlike any other in history. Do the numbers back this up?
Brady’s numbers at the midpoint of his legendary 2007 season:
2,431 yards, 30 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, 74 percent of passes completed, 9.1 yards per attempt.
And here are Rodgers numbers through eight games:
2,619 yards, 24 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, 72.5 percent of passes completed, 9.9 yards per attempt.
Rodgers has thrown six less touchdowns, one more interception, and is just short of Brady’s completion percentage, but he has thrown for more yards, and is flirting with double digit yards per attempt…which hasn’t been done since the fifties. The Football Outsiders go into some great depth HERE on Rodger’s season, but suffice to say if he continues on this pace, he’ll finish with the greatest season of quarterbacking in history, and it’s not even as close as you’d think.
Now, enough with numbers…they’re boring. What about watching him? Has there ever been a quarterback able to throw as accurately and as powerfully as Rodgers can on the run? Take THIS throw against the Chargers for example, where he rolls out of the pocket, immediately feels the pressure, and launches a 64 yard bomb to Jordy Nelson for the game winning touchdown. That was on the run, three yards from the sideline, half a second away from being smashed into the turf by Chargers linebacker Travis LaBoy. I couldn't do that with a tennis ball.
2. The All-second half team…
It happens every season: a team gets hot in the second half after a poor start and makes it into the playoffs completely unexpectedly. Last year it was the Packers, and before them, the Chargers. Who will it be this year? A relatively pointless endeavor, as it’s almost impossible to predict, but what the hell, I’ll give it a shot. The candidates…
-San Diego Chargers: The Charger’s defense is putrid; let’s just get that out of the way. It sucks; it isn’t the unit that finished last year ranked seventh in the Football Outsider’s defensive efficiency rankings. As many others have said, it’s pretty clear this Chargers team just isn’t as good as last year’s squad that probably should have made the playoffs if it weren't for a horrid special teams unit.
-Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys were gifted a fairly pedestrian schedule over the remaining half of the season. They get to play the Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, and the frisky Bills. Plus, they’ve still got both games against the division-leading Giants, one of which is on the last week of the season, possibly to decide the NFC East. They’re a good team that can’t seem to put it all together with any kind of consistency. But I don’t care, I’m enthralled by their talent, and with much of the public discourse directed at other things besides Tony Romo’s deficiencies, the Cowboys could be primed for a run while not under the spotlight. With Romo and the Cowboys, that’s always a good thing.
-Philadelphia Eagles: They’re pretty damn good by most statistical measures, but as I wrote above, their margin of error is slim to none. They’d need to go at least 7-1 the rest of the way, with games against the Patriots, Cowboys, Jets, and Giants left on the schedule. That’s tough…probably too tough.
-Tampa Bay Buccaneers: For whatever reason, the Bucs can’t seem to get there passing game together. After a brilliant 2010 season, quarterback Josh Freeman has thrown only eight touchdowns to 10 interceptions, is averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt, and has the Tampa Bay offense scoring just north of 18 points per game—24th in the league. You can’t win without offense, and no team in last season’s playoff field averaged less than 20 points a game during the regular season.
So there you go, I like the Cowboys to be the second half’s “Surprise team”. Am I looking forward to Tony Romo trade rumors and Jerry Jones canning Jason Garrett after a 2-6 finish? You bet!
3. Why we should absolutely write the Eagles off, and why we should absolutely not write the Eagles off…
Let’s take a quick look at the NFC playoff picture for the sake of argument:
NFC North: At 8-0, with Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, the Packers are winning this division. You can safely jot that down with permanent marker. The Lions are 6-2, and a prime candidate for the first wildcard spot. The Bears, at 5-3, looked strong last night. To everyone’s chagrin, they’re also a contender.
NFC South: In all likelihood, the Saints and Falcons will battle it out for the division, and the loser could play a role in the wildcard race. Both could finish with at least 10 wins, especially considering Atlanta’s relatively easy schedule going forward.
NFC West: The 49ers are 7-1, will win the division easily, and will battle it out all season with the Packers for the NFC’s number one seed.
NFC East: The Giants are 6-2, have a two game lead on the division, and are coming off three straight solid victories. The Cowboys—at 4-4 and super talented—could make a run.
That’s eight teams all with varying degrees of playoff chances, and then we have the Eagles. Oh, the Eagles. Based on the field I just listed, Philadelphia needs to go 7-1 the rest of the way. Anything less and they’ve got no chance. At 3-5 there room for error is nonexistent.
So why shouldn’t we write them off? The Giants have been known to blow big division leads. Last season, the Giants also started 6-2, but went 4-4 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs by a smidge. The season before that the Giants started off 5-0, then finished 3-8, missing the postseason. That’s two straight seasons of fast starts and poor finishes…give me one good reason that’s not in play for a third straight season?
4. Examining the Patriots loss and what it means for the rest of the season…
I wrote about the Patriots HERE a few days before they lost to the New York Giants. For those who haven’t read it, here’s the Cliffnotes version: The Patriots have a lot of problems that probably can’t be corrected this season. As fulfilling as it is to see my writing validated, it was miserable watching all my criticisms unfold on the football field. The offensive line couldn’t protect Brady (especially up the middle, where starting center Dan Koppen was lost for the season in week one), big plays down the field were at a premium, and the defense couldn’t make stops when it mattered. That’s about it. Unless Chad Ochocinco is imbued with the spirit of Randy Moss circa 2007 and the Ravens inexplicably ship Ed Reed to the Patriots for Kyle Arrington, New England’s prospects look bleak. That suction sound? That was the toilet as I attempted to flush my head down the toilet…
5. You’re also not gonna’ believe this, but the Jets are peaking after a rough start…
Do you remember when the Jets were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens by 17 points and Mark Sanchez completed only 11 passes out of 35 attempts? Do you remember how the Jet’s offense managed only seven first downs and 150 total yards of offense? You remember that offensive implosion, the nine point loss to the rival Patriots next week, and a 2-3 record heading into week six? That feels like a very long time ago…thus, is the National Football League.
We’ve been conditioned to believe in offense over defense, that it’s a passing league, and that quarterbacks are the face of the NFL. By and large, it’s all true. But for the third year in a row, the Jets are breaking the rules. According to the Football Outsiders, New York ranks first in overall DVOA, above the 8-0 Packers. I’ll leave it to the FO guys to explain exactly why that is, but suffice to say their offense isn’t as bad as you would think—discounting that pathetic performance against the Baltimore Ravens, of course.
And then there’s Mark Sanchez—the much-maligned GQ model-by-offseason. No one is talking about it, but just like Sanchez improved from his rookie campaign to his sophomore season, he has made another incremental jump. For a full season his stats prorate to 3,550 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Nothing spectacular, but a better Sanchez means a better Jets team. Considering they’ve made the AFC championship the past two seasons, could this be their year? *Barf*
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