After fears of a shortened NFL season subsided this summer and visions of Patriot’s football began dancing in my head, I became very excited. Irrationally excited, in fact, because my Patriots looked better than last year, where they went 14-2 only to be shocked by the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs. As your typical whiny, entitled New England fan, I was DESPERATE for another title, even though the Pats are only seven years removed from their last. Now, at the halfway point of the season, familiar doubts are manifesting themselves, and frankly, the same old issues are appearing right before our eyes.
So what are they?
No ability to beat press coverage…
We’ve heard this on a consistent basis ever since Randy Moss hung up the cleats. With no one to stretch the field and put the fear of god in opponents, defenses can focus solely on press coverage and not worry about receivers getting far up the field. Suddenly, the Patriots are struggling to rack up big plays against elite defenses. Wes Welker can get up the field against the Dolphins and Bills—28th and 17th ranked defenses respectively—but not against the Steelers or Cowboys.
Last Sunday, Pittsburgh stifled New England’s potent attack by playing more man coverage than they ever have before. Dick LeBeau—Pittsburgh’s long-time defensive coordinator—is famed for his zone blitz scheme, considering he practically invented it. Lots of man-to-man coverage isn’t something you often see from a LeBeau-led defense. Yet he knew it was the best way to contain the Patriot’s passing attack after giving up over 30 points to it last year, and it worked. Beautifully. Brady averaged less than six yards per pass and the Patriots had only one “big play” of over twenty yards.
If one of the most renowned defensive minds in history changes his entire scheme because he knows how to beat you, that’s probably not a good thing.
Perfect offensive execution all game, every game…
Matthew Stafford tosses a 50 yard bomb to Calvin Johnson at least once per game, usually when he’s bracketed by two defenders. It always works. Aaron Rodgers occasionally rolls out of the pocket and rockets a pass to one of his 67 viable receiving options down the field for a huge gain. Cam Newton likes to toss long balls to Steve Smith just to see how Smith manages to haul it in and what kind of fight inevitably breaks out between Smith and the poor defensive back in coverage (see: Roman Harper).
Tom Brady hasn’t had the luxury of a game breaking receiver since the Moss era. Brady has Wes Welker, a fast-improving duo of tight ends, and the ever reliable Deion Branch. Welker is fantastic, but he is a slot receiver. 5’9 slot receivers can only do so much. Deion Branch is about as explosive as a Giraffe. As good as tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are—which is very—they aren’t beating any cornerbacks on a fly route down the field.
The offense, as far as I can tell, relies on precise route running, an encyclopedic knowledge of the playbook, and a telepathic relationship with the quarterback. Against a zone defense, with good protection, Brady shreds it. They don’t stand a chance. His savvy receivers find the soft spots in the zone, Brady fires precision passes with impeccable timing, and we can all look forward to more Ugg commercials and enlightening Belichick press conferences.
But here’s the problem, when that execution breaks down, when mistakes are made, New England’s offense grinds to a halt. Brady fires short passes through impossibly small windows and the whole operation looks decidedly ugly. It’s like the opposite of the Eagles or Lions—squads that live or die by the big play. Besides Brady—the maestro that controls the operation—there isn’t a single, jaw-dropping talent on the offensive side of the ball. Sometimes, in a league as even and competitive as the NFL, execution isn’t enough. Sometimes, it all comes down to what the body can accomplish, not the mind. The Patriots lack the sort of game-breaking skill position player the Eagles, Lions, and Chargers seem to have in abundance. Not every defense has the personnel to follow Pittsburgh’s blueprint, but when they do, the Patriots don’t stand a chance.
Perennially Spinning the "Wheel of Mediocre Cornerbacks"
Besides Devin McCourty and Pat Chung, can you name anyone else in the Patriot’s secondary? Have you ever heard of Kyle Arrington, Antwaun Molden, Phillip Adams, and James Ihedigbo? If you haven’t, don’t feel bad. I’m also trying hard to acquaint myself with New England’s secondary, only it has been difficult because it changes week to week.
Considering the Patriots have spent 11 picks in the first three rounds of the draft over the past five seasons on defensive players, and only three are currently starting, it’s no wonder the defense blows chunks. Occasionally, teams hit it big with undrafted players and low-round draft picks, but generally (and I do stress generally), players are picked high in the draft for a reason: they are very talented. New England has managed to whiff on the majority of high round defensive picks, and all those players picked off the scrap heap aren’t working out. Somehow, I’m not surprised.
Not enough pressure on the opposing quarterback…
It’s the fourth year of the defensive rebuilding project, and it’s the fourth year without a pass rush. Year after year pundits predict the Pats will select a pass rushing linebacker or defensive linemen in the first couple rounds of the draft, and draft after draft they disappoint. Why do the Patriots neglect this gaping hole in the roster every year? The answer is they don’t…they just turn to free agency rather than the draft. Belichick seems to prefer aging defensive lineman and other castoffs and misfits to high-grade pass rushing talent. I have no explanation. Seriously, I don’t. But mediocre secondary play and a non-existent pass rush is a dreadful combination. Season-killing in fact.
The cold hard truth…
You’d think Devin McCourty, coming off of a Pro Bowl rookie season, would be able to shake his super sophomore slump. You’d think the return of All-Pro middle linebacker Jerod Mayo would provide a huge boost to the defense. Hell, you’d almost think Albert Haynesworth would be able to regain some of his old mojo. In short, you’d think New England’s defense will be a stronger unit over the last nine games of the season than the first seven. That’s the good, but the bad? Read on…
The Jets, in last year’s divisional showdown, unveiled the blueprint for containing the Patriot’s offense. Play man coverage, be physical with the receivers, get pressure on Brady without blitzing, and keep them off the field with your offense so Brady and Belichick don’t have enough time to figure it out. Easier said than done, I know, but there are a handful of teams with the personnel to do so. Those teams happen to be a strong Super Bowl contender and a division rival. New England’s offense couldn’t do anything against the Jets in last year's playoffs, and then faced with a similar game plan against the Steelers, once again looked lost.
They say you should never make the same mistake twice. Well, the Patriots did, and they have yet to convince anyone they wouldn’t make it a third time…or a fourth…or a fifth…
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