This will be a multi-part feature analyzing the postseason from every possible angle; giving you the classic 3,000 word Blitzswish columns you have come to
(A note on statistics used: OFF and DEF is total yards gained (OFF) and total yards given up (DEF). Courteous of ESPN.com. DVOA=total team DVOA. OFF. DVOA=offensive DVOA. DEF. DVOA=defensive DVOA. DVOA statistics courteous of http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff).
AFC
Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)
RANKS: OFF. (14th) DEF. (2nd) DVOA (2nd) OFF. DVOA (5th) DEF. DVOA (1st)
Why they’ll win it all: Dick LeBeau’s defenses are consistently the best in the league, and that’s no different this season. With Troy Polamalu healthy Pittsburgh’s D goes from good to phenomenal. They dominate nearly every defensive statistic there is, from yardage allowed (2nd) to rushing yardage allowed (1st) to QB pressures (1st with 48 sacks) to points allowed (1st with 14.5) to interceptions (5th with 21) to first downs allowed (5th) to third down conversions (tied for 2nd). That’s a really long way of informing you the Steelers defense is the best in the league…by far. They’ve given up more than 22 points only once this season, to the New England Patriots.
Offensively, the Steelers have the weapons to be great. Wideout Mike Wallace topped 1,200 receiving yards and grabbed double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his young career. After a sluggish start to the season for the passing game Roethlisberger seems to be rounding into form. The offense has averaged 26 points per game since week eight. Pittsburgh has recommitted running the ball this year, ranking 11th in rushing yardage after not cracking the top 18 in 2008 and 09’. They’ve found a work horse back in Rashard Mendenhall, diversifying their offense and taking part of the load off Ben Roethlisberger.
Don’t discount the Dick LeBeau effect; he’s the best defensive coordinator in football. There aren’t many people in the world that can formulate a defensive game plan like he can.
Why they won’t win it all: In week ten New England showed us that the Steeler’s defensive backs can be exposed if the quarterback gets excellent protection and is smart with the football. Brady was able to look Polamalu off and attack Pittsburgh’s corners. Not everyone has a quarterback and offensive line the caliber of the Patriots but they developed the blueprint to beat the “Steel Curtain”. I don’t know if another team is as capable of thrashing Pittsburgh’s D like the Pats, but if they meet again in the AFC championship, look out.
Scariest team to play: New England Patriots
Prediction: Appearance in the AFC championship
New England Patriots (14-2)
RANKS: OFF. (8th) DEF. (25th) DVOA (1st) OFF. DVOA (1st) DEF. DVOA (19th)
Why they’ll win it all: According to the football outsiders DVOA statistics the Patriots 2010 offense is the best they have ever recorded (going back to 1993)…even better than their 2007 counterparts. That’s pretty amazing when you consider the 07’ squad put up the most points in NFL history. Here’s the difference: With Moss gone, Brady can spread the ball to a bunch of different wideouts—all who work hard and run precision routes. It’s one of Brady’s greatest strengths, and he finally has an offense to accentuate it.
Enough can’t be said about the versatility and precision of New England’s offense. They have an excellent one-two bunch at runningback, two veteran, experienced receivers, and a pair of exemplary rookie tight ends. With a top five offensive line like the Pats have its hard to throw their offense off its game. The numbers they put up are astonishing. New England has scored at least 31 points in eight straight games, averaging 32 for the season. It’s not just porous defenses they’re taking advantage of—39 against the #1 ranked Steelers, 31 against the #2 ranked Packers, 36 against the #5 ranked Chicago Bears, 45 against the #6 ranked Jets. That’s four of the six best defenses in the NFL…and they have embarrassed each one.
New England’s offense wins games, but the defense has improved dramatically over the second half of the season. Average quarterback rating against the Patriots over the first ten games: 94.7. Over the past six: 56.5. The stat is skewed based on the level of QB they have faced recently, but even average quarterbacks were posting career days against the Pats earlier in the year (I’m looking at you Colt McCoy and Mark Sanchez).
Why they won’t win it all: The defense grew from “ugly” to “serviceable” as the season wore on but it remains young and mistake prone. Can emerging shutdown corner Devin McCourty handle the pressure of the postseason? What about Pat Chung and Brandon Spikes? The young D has played well against the likes of Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger…can they do it again come the postseason? Inconsistency is always an issue with younger squads, especially come playoff time. Because of Bill Belichick and the presence of veterans such as Vince Wilfork I like their chances.
New England has also struggled to stop the run. It’s been covered up thanks to a high scoring offense that forces opponents to pass, but like the Packers showed, control the ball and you have a very good chance of winning. The team that beats the Patriots will run for at least 150 yards, maintain a 2:1 clock advantage, and find a way to grab an extra possession.
Scariest team to play: Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Super Bowl appearance
Baltimore Ravens (12-4)
RANKS: OFF. (22nd) DEF. (10th) DVOA (4th) OFF. DVOA (12th) DEF. DVOA (4th)
Why they’ll win it all: Like Pittsburgh, defense is the strength of the Baltimore Ravens. The fearsome threesome (never again) of Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, and Ed Reed has been the heart of the D for over five years. Baltimore gives up only 17 points a game, and Ed Reed leads the league in interceptions—even though he’s missed six games because of injury. Another interesting stat I came across: Baltimore’s four losses were by a combined 16 points…never losing one by more than five. It works the other way too, beating teams by double digits three times. It reminds me of the old Patriots, winning ugly but wining nevertheless.
Why they won’t win it all: Baltimore’s offense has shown flashes of what everyone thought it would be before the season, but overall it’s failed to reach expectations. Anquan Boldin, in particular, has failed to live up to his #1 receiver billing accumulating shy of 850 receiving yards after consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with the Cardinals. Ray Rice also has had a down year coming off a spectacular sophomore campaign. Although he’s broken 1,700 yards from scrimmage for the second straight season, his rushing average has plummeted from 5.3 per carry to 4.0. He’s been handed the ball 53 more times yet has done little to capitalize.
It seems the Raven have an identity crisis, varying between a pass heavy-spread you out attack to a pounding, run heavy style. They need to figure this out quick as they prepare to battle the Chiefs on wildcard week end. If they want to reach the Super Bowl they better hope their offense is better than average…
Scariest team to play: Indianapolis Colts
Prediction: Loss in the divisional round
Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)
RANKS: OFF. (12th) DEF. (14th) DVOA (17th) OFF. DVOA (13th) DEF. DVOA (21st)
Why they’ll win it all: Coming off a hideous 2009 campaign, KC has drastically improved on both sides of the ball (28th in DVOA last year)…a rare feat. Much of it is due to a strong rookie class and Matt Cassel’s MVP-type year. Cassel in particular has really grown into his role as a franchise quarterback after a moribund 2009 year. 2009: 2,924 yards, 16 TD’s, 16 interceptions, 69.9 QB rating. 2010: 3,116 yards, 27 TD’s, 7 interceptions, 93.0 QB rating. An incredible turn around by a guy all Pats fans are rooting for.
Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones form the league’s most effective one-two punch leading the NFL in rushing yardage and finishing amongst the top five in yards per carry. Jones is the wily veteran and an effective goal line runner but Charles might be the best back in the league. He finished the year with the highest per carry average since the merger—a crazy 6.4. Wideout Dwayne Bowe also had his coming out party this season—accumulating over 1,100 receiving yards and catching 15 touchdowns. To make a deep run Kansas City needs to be able to play with balance…limiting Cassel’s drop backs while keeping the two heading monster of Jones and Charles fed. KC can’t beat elite teams if Cassel has to throw 40+ times.
Why they won’t win it all: The Chiefs haven’t put together a consistent string of strong games all season, and they’ve only beaten one playoff team: the Seattle Seahawks. They beat the Rams and Titans convincingly in weeks 15+16 only to get pummeled by the Raiders in the finale. They were shut-out by the Chargers in week 14 and lost four games by double digits.
Defense looks to be the Chief’s biggest weakness; ranking near the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. They couldn’t seem to touch the Raiders week 17, allowing them to accumulate 209 yards on the ground. That’s a bad sign for Kansas City, a team that needs to control the clock and win on the ground. If they can’t stop the run they will lose the clock battle and Cassel will be forced to throw more. He’s had a terrifically efficient year, but not sure he’s capable of leading a team from behind.
Scariest team to play: Baltimore Ravens
Prediction: Loss in wildcard round
Indianapolis Colts (10-6)
RANKS: OFF. (4th) DEF. (20th) DVOA (15th) OFF. DVOA (6th) DEF. DVOA (24th)
Why they’ll win it all: Peyton Manning has singlehandedly dragged the Colts to the playoffs, passing more times and for more yards than he ever has in his career. Not only is he the quarterback, but he calls the plays, comes up with much of the offensive game plan, and possibly coaches the team depending on how alive Jim Caldwell is feeling. As a direct result of his increased responsibilities he’s thrown more picks than he has since 2001. It’s a miracle Manning’s been able to do what he has without Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Austin Collie and the 17 other injured players I’m forgetting to mention.
With Joseph Addai back from injury the Colt’s running game got a huge shot in the arm. It should take some of the load off Manning and improve the play action that is such as integral part of Indianapolis’s offense. They’ve rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games now…
Why they won’t win it all: The Colts defense is bad, really bad. ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer described it better than anyone. His premise was that for the Colts to stop an aspect of someone’s game their entire defense needs to concentrate on stopping that aspect. For example, to stop the run Indianapolis needs to stack the box…making them vulnerable to the pass and vice-versa. That makes the D easy to expose and easy to accumulate yardage and points against. The stats back it up: Indy has given up 24.2 points a game-23rd in the league. Teams have scored at least thirty points five times, and at least 24 in ten. The offense is good, but good enough to make up for a defense that is among the worst in the NFL?
Scariest team to play: Pittsburgh Steelers
Prediction: Loss in divisional round
New York Jets (11-5)
RANKS: OFF. (11th) DEF. (3rd) DVOA (6th) OFF. DVOA (16th) DEF. DVOA (6th)
Why they’ll win it all: I feel like a broken record at this point, but similar to the Steelers and Ravens, defense is New York’s forte. Compared to last year, though, the unit has taken a step back. Part of it is due to the sheer of difficulty of remaining the best defense in the league two straight years but it also stems from Darrelle Revis not replicating last year’s excellence. Still, the Jets defense remains one of the strongest units in the NFL, holding opponents to 19 ppg and near the top of every defensive statistic.
Mark Sanchez is woefully inconsistent but New York’s running game remains one of the best in the league. They’ve racked up over 2,300 yards-3rd, and a 4.4 average. They rank 5th in the Football Outsider’s rushing DVOA. The Jets need to be able to run effectively and control the clock, thus limiting what Mark Sanchez needs to do. New York has shown the ability to win from behind with Sanchez at the helm—but only against poor teams. They need to avoid a situation in which Mark Sanchez has to bring the team back from behind…he hasn’t shown the ability to do that against playoff caliber teams.
Why they won’t win it all: Not to put my foot in my mouth, but the Jets have a difficult road ahead. It’s a passing league and New York has the second most inconsistent quarterback in the postseason (first, would of course be whoever starts for Seattle). The Jets are one of only three teams in the tournament not starting a pro-bowl quarterback—along with the Ravens and Chiefs. Both Flacco and Cassel are coming off better seasons than Sanchez. If it comes down to Mark needing to lead a fourth quarter comeback against say the Steelers, or Ravens I would be worried.
Scariest team to play: Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots
Prediction: Loss in wildcard round
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