These contests are always bloody, always close, and are always decided by who makes the big play at the end of the game. When the Steelers won this year, it was Polamalu getting the strip sack towards the end of the fourth quarter. When the Ravens won earlier in the season it was Flacco connecting with Houshmandzadeh for the go ahead touchdown in the last minute.
Key Matchup: Mike Wallace vs. whoever is covering him.
Baltimore’s defense has one weakness: speed. They were able to shutout Dwayne Bowe, but Mike Wallace is a different animal entirely. Wallace is one of the two or three fastest players in the game, and he seems to connect with Big Ben on a sixty yard bomb at least once per game. If Wallace dominates, it will put more pressure on the Ravens offense—exactly what Pittsburgh wants.
Possible Goat: Steeler’s offensive line.
It’s banged up beyond recognition. They’re starting tow backup tackles, and they’re facing a defensive line headed by 350 pound behemoth Haoli Ngata. It may take three guys to contain him—then you’ve got Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Ray Lewis blitzing? It could be a rather uncomfortable day for Ben Roethlisberger in the pocket. If that’s the case, the Ravens have a huge advantage.
Possible Hero not named Big Ben, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice or other noticeable player: Lardarius Webb
With Chris Carr a game time decision and Lardarius Webb Baltimore’s fastest corner he will likely get the daunting assignment of covering Mike Wallace. If he can deliver a magical performance and channel his inner Revis, it will make it a hell of a lot easier for Ngata and friends to get to Big Ben.
Stat of the game: The combined score of the last 17 Baltimore-Pittsburgh contests: 302-302.
Interesting subplot that doesn’t really matter: Terrell Suggs wore this shirt in a Wednesday press conference:
If I had to throw up a wild guess, I would say the Ravens won’t have a warm welcome in Heinz Field…
Prediction: Steelers: 23 Ravens: 17
Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons
I may be the only person in America (outside of Atlanta) picking the Falcons. The Packers have to be one of the biggest bandwagon teams of the past five years. In one sentence here’s why I like the dirty birds: Green Bay likes to shoot itself in the foot, repeatedly (ok, allow me a few more sentences). Between Mike McCarthy bungling timeouts at a Jim Caldwellian level, a few more penalties than you would like to see, and a prolific offense that like’s to take it’s foot off the gas at the worst possible times you have a possible “coaching implosion”. Atlanta doesn’t shoot itself in the foot, and always put’s itself in position to win. Advantage: Atlanta
Key Matchup: James Starks vs. Atlanta’s front seven
I know the Packer’s offensive line plays a huge part in Stark’s success but it’s more fun to talk about Green Bay’s secret weapon, ok? James Starks topped 120 yards against the Eagles in his first NFL start—that’s downright cockamamie. Without a running game the Pack have no ability to protect a lead and are easier to defend—with a back capable of running for 100+ yards that weakness is lessened. If Starks can have a repeat performance the advantage tips Green Bay’s way.
Possible Goat: Atlanta’s play calling and Mike McCarthy’s game management.
I couldn’t pick one—sue me. The Falcon’s lost to New Orleans week 16 because offensively they played not to lose. If they’re play calling continues to be that conservative they will be one and done. You need to take risks to beat great teams—conservative offense doesn’t get it done. Hopefully Mike Smith and company learned they’re lesson.
Mike McCarthy’s game management Wildcard weekend was atrocious. I went into detail about it in my Wildcard recap column, check it out. If Green Bay loses a close one I fear we’ll be able to blame a couple miss-used timeouts or suspect play calling as the result.
Possible Hero not named Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Clay Mathews or other noticeable player: Michael Jenkins
The former first round pick can truly earn his paycheck with a monster performance Saturday night. Atlanta’s most glaring weakness is a lack of explosive offensive players. Roddy White is tremendous, but they suffer a dramatic drop off after that. Green Bay’s got Greg Jennings and Donald Driver; the Patriots have Wes Welker and Deion Branch. Jenkins needs to play like an elite number two wideout for the birds’. If not, Atlanta won’t put up the requisite points to defeat the Pack.
Stat of the game: Aaron Rodgers numbers during his three years as starter: 12,394 yards, 86 touchdowns, 31 interceptions, 13 rushing touchdowns.
Interesting subplot that doesn’t really matter: Clay Matthew’s is a pro bowl linebacker for the Packers. His father played 278 games in the NFL, the third most all time. His uncle was inducted into the pro football Hall of Fame in 2007 and is widely considered one of the greatest offensive linemen ever. His grandfather played four seasons in the NFL for the San Francisco 49ers. His younger brother Casey plays for the Oregon Ducks, and forced a fumble against Auburn in the national championship that would have been the play of the game if Auburn didn’t storm back with the winning field goal. Clay needs to mate with Serena Williams and create a new family sports dynasty.
Prediction: Atlanta: 28 Packers: 24
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