This will be a multi-part feature analyzing the postseason from every possible angle; giving you the classic 3,000 word Blitzswish columns you have come to
(A note on statistics used: OFF and DEF is total yards gained (OFF) and total yards given up (DEF). Courteous of ESPN.com. DVOA=total team DVOA. OFF. DVOA=offensive DVOA. DEF. DVOA=defensive DVOA. DVOA statistics courteous of http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff).
NFC
Atlanta Falcons (13-3)
RANKS: OFF. (16th) DEF. (16th) DVOA (8th) OFF. DVOA (10th) DEF. DVOA (12th)
Why they’ll win it all: The Falcons remind me of the Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwich. Boring, simple-yet efficient, ALWAYS good, and always there for you. Atlanta doesn’t turn the ball over (+14 turnover differential-3rd in the league), doesn’t commit many penalties (least amount of penalties in the league with 58), moves the ball exceedingly well (353 first downs-3rd, number of third downs converted-1st), and has converted an insane 11 of 15 fourth downs. They’re exceedingly efficient, relatively mistake free, and can beat you in a multitude of ways.
The ability to win games in different ways is a key ingredient in the postseason. How many teams over the past decade have won it all while only being exceptional at one phase of the game? Zero. The 2007 Patriots are a perfect example. Tom Brady led a prolific passing attack-the best ever-but the offense had a mediocre rushing attack and the defense was merely average. The Falcons can win games in different ways. They’re running game is led by Michael Turner, 3rd in the NFL with 1,371 yards and a 4.1 average. Matt Ryan is an MVP candidate and finished the year with a 91.0 quarterback rating. Roddy White is arguably the best wide out in the game. John Abraham has 13 sacks and spearheads one of the better pass rushes in the league. You get the idea? Stop Turner, and Matt Ryan is fully capable of throwing the Falcons to victory. Concentrate on stopping their passing attack, and the Michael Turner-led running game will control the clock and pound the defense all game. It’s a multi-faceted attack with few weaknesses-on either side of the ball.
Why they won’t win it all: For all Atlanta’s efficiency, they lack explosiveness and that “wow” factor. Matt Ryan averages 6.49 yards per pass-25th among the top 30 quarterbacks in the league. Their running game averages 3.8 yards per rush and they lack a receiver who averages over 12.3 yards per catch (who has caught more than 25 passes). Defensively, Atlanta has even fewer weaknesses. Similarly to the offense, they do everything well, yet nothing spectacularly. The only soft spot could be rushing defense which is ranked 10th in the league in terms of yardage. They allow a 4.6 yards per rush average, one of the highest marks in the NFL.
That was way too many numbers wasn’t it? Moving on…
Scariest team to play: Philadelphia Eagles
Prediction: Super Bowl appearance
Chicago Bears (11-5)
RANKS: OFF. (30th) DEF. (9th) DVOA (16th) OFF. DVOA (28th) DEF. DVOA (5th)
Why they’ll win it all: Three reasons: Special Teams, defense and Jay Cutler. They’ve got the number one special teams unit according to the football outsiders led by the prolific Devin Hester. Along with a top five defense Chicago thrives by winning the field position battle and managing the opponent’s offense just enough for Jay Cutler to either win or lose the game. About Jay Cutler. Chicago’s defense/special teams are great, but Cutler is the heart of the team. If he performs at a high level, the Bears usually win. If he doesn’t they lose. In seven of Chicago’s eleven wins Cutler’s quarterback rating has been greater than 97.0, with only one performance dipping below 82.0. When Chicago loses it has never gone above 69.0. That’s as telling a statistic as we have about the Chicago Bears. Cutler is fully capable of getting hot and throwing the Bears all the way to the Super Bowl, but he is equally capable of having a patented Cutler four interception implosion.
Why they won’t win it all: The Bears have the worst offensive line in football, and it’s not even close. They have given up 56 sacks all year, six worse than the 31st best offensive line. Cutler’s been hit 92 times-24th in the league. When Cutler has been sacked four or more times the Bears are 3-4, sacked six times or more they’re 0-3.
Chicago also lacks a consistent running game. They average only 3.9 yards per carry and 101 yards per game. Matt Forte is a solid back’, sort of a Brian Westbrook clone. He’s a shifty runner who is great in space and an able pass catcher. But they lack a runningback who can complement Forte. They don’t have someone who can pound away between the tackles and get a key third and one. Because of that hole they convert only 32.8% of their third down attempts. They’ve made only 76 first downs via the ground, which would rank 28th in the league. This lack of a potent ground game has turned the Chicago offense into a one-dimensional attack that can beat you one way-through the air. Because of the Bear’s bad pass protection and Cutler’s occasional poor decision making this can back fire on them. Like I’ve said before, if we get the good Cutler the Bears will be dangerous, otherwise look for an early exit.
Scariest team to play: Atlanta Falcons
Prediction: Loss in divisional round
Green Bay Packers (10-6)
RANKS: OFF. (9th) DEF. (5th) DVOA (3rd) OFF. DVOA (7th) DEF. DVOA (2nd)
Why they’ll win it all: Although Aaron Rodgers is undoubtedly the face of the franchise; Green Bay’s defense is the unit that consistently wins them games. They held the Bears and Giants to 20 points in weeks 16 plus 17. They played the Patriots prolific offense better than anyone during New England’s eight game winning streak and offensive tear. The combination of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams forms perhaps the best cornerback tandem in the league. B.J Raji is one of the best young defensive linemen in the game and golden-locked Clay Mathews has burst onto the scene with a phenomenal sophomore year. The stats speak for themselves; Green Bay’s defense is capable of containing any offense out there.
And that Aaron Rodgers guy, he’s pretty good too. Despite all the weapons Green Bay has lost (like emerging tight end Jermichael Finley and runningback Ryan Grant) Rodgers still has the offense performing at a high level. The Packers 45-17 thumping of the New York Giants in week 16 showcased their offense at its peak. When Aaron Rodgers is given protection (sacked 38 times-18th in the league) he does things like throw for 400 yards and four touchdowns.
Why they won’t win it all: One injury that Green Bay has struggled with is the loss of halfback Ryan Grant. His replacement, Brandon Jackson, has done little to boost the ground game-posting 703 yards with only a 3.7 per carry average. Remember how I said a team needs to be able to win in a multitude of ways? With the lack of a running game (Packers are ranked 24th in the NFL) Green Bay is forced to pass more than average. Aaron Rodgers is fantastic, but can they make a deep postseason run this way? Recent history says it’s possible. The 2009 Indianapolis Colts reached the Super Bowl with the worst rushing attack in the league. The 2008 Cardinals also reached the Super Bowl with the NFL’s last ranked running game. The team that won the 08’ Super Bowl-the Steelers-had the 23rd ranked ground game. Those squads had one thing in common: a top flight quarterback. Is Aaron Rodgers at the level of Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger? History says he’ll need to be for Green Bay to make a run.
One last Green Bay gripe. They can be maddeningly inconsistent. The squad that put up 45 against the Giants was vastly different than the one that managed only ten against Chicago. Both defenses are comparable, why were the Packers able to obliterate one, but struggled against the other? One good sign to take away from the inconsistency: if their offense struggles the defense is capable of picking up the slack and vice-versa. Both sides of the ball will need to be at their best to make it through the NFC…
Scariest team to play: New Orleans Saints
Prediction: NFC championship appearance, loss to Falcons
Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
RANKS: OFF. (2nd) DEF. (12th) DVOA (5th) OFF. DVOA (3rd) DEF. DVOA (14th)
Why they’ll win it all: Michael Vick. The entire Eagles squad plays as well as their quarterback does. When Vick is on, he wins games all by himself…and it’s amazing to watch. Because of how dependent the Eagles are on the performance of their quarterback, they are a hard team to figure out. I could see them making it to the Super Bowl if Vick is hot, if not, I see them losing to Green Bay in round one.
This team has weapons. LeSean McCoy is Brian Westbrook 2.0 at the halfback position while DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are a terrific wide receiver pair. This offense can put up points faster than the 49ers canned Mike Singletary. That’s what makes them such a terrifying team to face…they can lay 21 on the scoreboard in only a few plays. Just ask the Redskins.
Why they won’t win it all: I’ve written this before, but I don’t trust the Eagles because of the style of offense they run. It’s predicated on the big play, and if those bombs to DeSean Jackson aren’t working the offense stalls. This is roughly the 567th time I’ve used this analogy (from Michael Lombardi) but Philadelphia’s offense is akin to an NBA team that relies on the three pointer. When they’re falling it’s terrifying…when they’re not the offense is less than great.
With that said, I have two additional worries. The first concern is health. Vick and Jackson have been beat up all season, and with their slight builds it’s a miracle they have been able to stay upright for as long as they have. Because of the way Vick chooses to play his position, and an average offensive line, I wonder if Vick can make it through a deep postseason run. Did you see him against the Vikings a couple of weeks ago? I don’t care if Vick says he’s 100%, I’m surprised he can even move after the beating he took. I also worry about the state of the defense. Before week 17 the Eagle’s D had given up five straight weeks of 24 or more points. The loss of both Nate Allen and Brandon Graham was a big blow as was the likely career ending injury suffered by DB Ellis Hobbs.
Scariest team to play: Green Bay Packers
Prediction: Loss in wildcard round to the Packers
New Orleans Saints (11-5)
RANKS: OFF. (6th) DEF. (4th) DVOA (10th) OFF. DVOA (11th) DEF. DVOA (9th)
Why they’ll win it all: New Orleans defense has become one of the strongest squads in the league. They’re actually better than last year, jumping five spots in defensive DVOA between this year and last. Much of that is due to the emergence of defensive back Malcolm Jenkins-a true shutdown corner.
Drew Brees once again has the offense at the top of the league. New Orleans receiving core goes four deep, and Brees is a perennial 4,000 yard 68% completion passer. With the depth at every offensive position the Saint’s offense may be the most consistent in the NFC. It goes without saying, but Brees is a masterful quarterback, and he’s proven his acumen under pressure. The Saints ability to run out the clock and close the game against Atlanta was telling…I didn’t think they could do it with the NFL’s 28th best ground attack.
Don’t forget about the Sean Payton factor. I love a coach who is willing to make the ballsy calls that most coaches wouldn’t dare try (onside kick after halftime anyone?). He might be the best in the league at devising offensive game plans—don’t think that won’t be a factor as the Saints prepare to make a second postseason run.
Why they won’t win it all: Brees is as good as they come, but he’s thrown 22 interceptions this season…six games with at least two picks and 12 straight with at least one. Some of it has been poor luck, but Brees has had to force the ball more than last year. His receivers aren’t getting as open like they were during the Super Bowl run. Another problem stems from the running game, which has been depleted by injury. News broke Wednesday that Pierre Thomas would be placed on injured reserve, joining rookie revelation Chris Ivory. Tough break for the Saints who will have to rely on Reggie Bush, Julius Jones, and some guy named DeShawn Wynn. The loss of their two starting runningbacks turns the Saints into a one-dimensional offensive team. Last season they enjoyed the sixth best ground attack—meaning Brees passed 514 times; much less than the 658 times he chucked it this year.
Scariest team to play: Chicago Bears
Prediction: Loss in divisional round
Seattle Seahawks (7-9)
RANKS: OFF. (28th) DEF. (27th) DVOA (30th) OFF. DVOA (29th) DEF. DVOA (29th)
Why they’ll win it all: They won’t. They can’t right? Arguably the worst team to ever make the playoffs gets to host the defending champs in the wildcard round. It’s hard to find anything good to say about the Seahawks, but special teams are somewhere to start. Leon Washington is a dynamic return man leading the third best special team’s squad according to the football outsiders. They’ve returned three kicks back for touchdowns-tied for the most in the NFL. Otherwise, no reason to think Seattle can scare anyone. Except the football gods…
Why they won’t win it all: Where to start? The worst ground game in the league. Bottom third passing game. Their two best quarterbacks are Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst. Imagine if the two best movies in your DVD case are Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre. That’s the Seahawks in a nutshell. They’re great at nothing, andddd not really great at anything either. Consider this, in each of Seattle’s nine defeats they’ve lost by at least fifteen points. When it rains it poor’s--and it does that a lot in Washington…
Scariest team to play: Everybody, including “The Tiny Football League”
Prediction: Loss in wildcard round to the Saints
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