Conference Chamionship Picks

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Why the Bears can win it:

1) Field Conditions: Green Bay set football fans across America acting like little school-girls after eviscerating the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. As the name indicates, it was a dome—meaning perfect field conditions, and no adverse weather that could possibly affect any facet of the game. Soldier Field is pretty much the opposite. Crappy turf (that the Bears have experience playing on), cold weather, and always a chance for catastrophic wind conditions. Not ideal for a team fast becoming “the greatest show on turf” 2.0…on average turf at least.

2) A history of containing the Packer’s offense: Green bay managed to score only ten points week 17 in a game they had to have to earn a playoff berth that mattered nothing to Chicago. They put up only 17 points in a week three loss to the Bears. If there is one similarity between both contests it’s that Green Bay’s running game was virtually non-existent. In week 17 they totaled 60 yards with Rodgers leading the way running for 21 yards on seven carries. In week three they totaled only 63 yards—John Kuhn the high man with 31 on six carries. Is that enough when the passing game might be hampered due to weather and the turf?

One of Chicago’s greatest strengths defensively is the ability to stop the big play with their cover-two defense. That matches up well with the Packer’s offense that is one of the most explosive in the league. Whether or not Green Bay can get those big, back-breaking plays will in all likelihood determine who wins this contest.

3) The Return Game: Chicago’s greatest advantage lies in their excellent special teams unit (1st in DVOA). The Bears accumulated 184 return yards in their matchup with the Packers back in September on three punt returns and three kick returns. They must dominate the field position battle again if they are to beat Green Bay.

Why the Packers can win it:

1) Aaron Rodgers: At the risk of sounding like the rest of the sports talk world I will admit that Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL, and two wins away from grabbing the “best quarterback alive” crown from Tom Brady. His stats for the 2011 postseason (two games): 546 passing yards, six touchdowns, 78 percent passes completed, zero interceptions, and one rushing touchdown. Chicago contained Rodgers and the offense fairly well in the regular season, but can they do it a third time against a quarterback playing his best ball ever? My gut says no.

2) Chicago’s weak offensive line: Green Bay has one huge advantage in this contest: one of the best pass rushers alive in Clay Mathews. And they also have defensive tackle B. J. who has been a force (five sacks over last seven games) and Charles Woodson—probably the best pass rushing defensive back in the game. Green Bay’s pressure package is most definitely strong enough to harass Jay Cutler all game long. The Bear’s line hasn’t been exposed in weeks, but this could be the Sunday it falls apart.

Bottom Line: Chicago has some of the more archaic theories favoring them, such as the “nobody believes in us” corollary, the fact that Green Bay has been hyped so much that they may be overrated, and the Packer’s tendency to commit a few dumb penalties per game as well as coach Mike McCarthy committing a few coaching blunders at the worst possible times. But if you look at it objectively, Green Bay is the more talented team--definitely on offense (by 60 miles) and maybe even on defense. It feels wrong to pick the Pack because every blowhard in America is siding with them—but it’s the right move. I went with Atlanta because of all the little things, completely disregarding Green Bay's superior talent. I won't make that mistake again.

Prediction: Green Bay-31, Chicago-20

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Jets can win it:

1) Health: The Jets are completely healthy, the Steelers are not. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is not playing well (nearly lost them the game last week), and Polamalu isn’t dominating games like a healthy Polamalu once did.

2) Pass rush: Like I mentioned above, the Steeler’s offensive line literally doesn’t have any bodies left, they’re down to the lowest of the low on the depth chart. After seeing what the Jets D-line did to the Pats last week, there is no reason to think they can’t have a repeat performance against Pitt. Shaun Ellis had the game of his life against New England, and he will have to do the same in his matchup with Pittsburgh Center Maurice Pouncey.

Rex Ryan has been masterful thus far in the postseason in devising schemes to shut down first Peyton Manning and then Tom Brady. I expect to see Ryan come up with some creative pressure schemes that will bother Big Ben.

3) Secondary: It looks like Darrelle Revis will be covering Hines Ward and Antonio Cromartie will be given the tough assignment of matching up with Mike Wallace. Wallace is just the type of receiver Cromartie like to cover and Antonio should be up to the task with his length and speed. With Revis locking up Hines Ward, the burden will fall on Pittsburgh’s young receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. They have shown in recent weeks that they are capable of doing just that, and the Jets should struggle containing their speed with their third and fourth defensive backs. New York handled New England’s slow receiving core, are they capable of doing the same against a much faster group?

Why the Steelers can win it:

1) Big Ben: Unlike Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when he’s forced out of the pocket. New York has a definite advantage against the offensive line, but they must contain Big Ben or else the matchup is a wash. With all of the speed Pittsburgh enjoys in the receiving corps, expect a couple deep ball connections that will swing the game.

2) Defense: No shit I hear you say. It may be obvious, but it must be said. Neither New England’s defense nor Indianapolis’s was capable of pressuring or confusing Mark Sanchez, yet I believe the Steelers will be. Polamalu didn’t play in the Steeler’s week 15 loss and they felt it. He is so important to the defense with his ability to cover the entire field, blitz the quarterback, and his nose for the ball. This will be the Sanchize’s toughest matchup in weeks…

3) Receiving Corps: For Pittsburgh to win, their stable of wideouts must have outstanding games. Even with Cromartie covering him week 15, Mike Wallace still managed to catch seven balls for 102 yards. Even though it’s an excellent matchup for Antonio, what transpired in their last meeting must still worry Rex and friends. Wallace is definitely capable of another big day, but it looks like this one will fall on the shoulders of Sanders and Brown. Both will have favorable matchups, at least one needs to deliver.

Bottom Line: Both squads strength lies in defense, and both possess elite running games. The difference lies in the quarterbacks, where Ben Roethlisberger has played his best in big moments and Mark Sanchez can make big plays but is maddeningly inconsistent.

Also, the Jets reaped the benefit of a kick return touchdown week 15 that proved to be the difference in the game. Then, they got a safety in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter and still almost lost. The chances that New York gets a special team’s touchdown and a safety again in the same game is slim, which means they will have to rely more on offensive execution and defensive dominance to win this one.

In that respect, I like the Steelers…

Prediction: Steelers-27, Jets-20