Blake Griffin: Making Grown Men Act Like School Girls on a Nightly Basis

That sound? That’s the audible gasp of 50,000 spectators as Blake Griffin catches the basketball ten feet from the rim and prepares to put it through the hoop. It’s going in—we know that much, but the most fascinating question—how will Blake do it this time? Will he blow by his defender and slam it home, perhaps bank in the elbow jumper? Maybe he’ll throw it to Baron then rise up for an alley-oop. Occasionally, he gets bored of dunking on fools and prefers to throw in a 360 layup. However he does it, one thing is constant: Blake Griffin is a basketball clairvoyant. He’s a master surgeon, only his tool of choice is a blunt axe.


Watching Blake Griffin play basketball happens to be the greatest sports spectacle we have in 2011. How many other athletes elicit that audible “gasp” that Blake does whenever he is involved in a play? No one. Not LeBron, not Durant, not Howard, not Dwyane Wade. Blake already has top 25 dunk compilations on YouTube, and he’s only played 46 games of professional basketball. A buddy of mine recently asked me if I had seen the Blake Griffin dunk. My reply: which one? Blake’s Mozgov throw down will probably go down as the signature play of the 2010-11 season, much like Rondo’s steal and scoop in last year’s postseason or Dwyane Wade’s mid-air-three-from-the–foul-line game winner of the year before. Unless, of course, Griffin and Davis connect for a 95 foot alley-oop—definitely in play.

Yes, he’s exciting, and we know he can dunk, but how good is he as a basketball player? Pretty damn great—actually let me rephrase that—historically great. Blake is averaging 22.6 points, 12.7 rebounds, and 3.5 assists. He knocks down his almost 17 field goal attempts per game at a 51 percent rate. That near 13 rebounds a game average ranks fourth in the NBA. Through the last 30 years, only four rookies have averaged over 12 boards per game, Shaq being the most recent before Blake. So yeah, Griffin is the first rookie in 18 years to average over 12 rebounds a game. At the risk of sounding like your AP Calculus professor, let’s dig into some more advanced statistics. Griffin ranks in the top ten in offensive rebound percentage, defensive rebound percentage, and total rebound percentage (meaning he grabs a crap ton of all available rebounds on the floor).

Offensively, Blake Griffin is equally as gifted. 41 rookies over the past 30 years have led their teams in scoring attempts (a combination of field goal and free throw attempts) and Griffin is on pace to enter that club. Even more astonishing, he scores 1.10 points per attempt, a figure that would place him eighth among that list. He is one of eight forwards in the history of the NBA (and ABA) to average over 22 points per game—along with such names as Rick Barry, Elgin Baylor, and Bernard King.

Getting even more statistically advanced, Blake Griffin projects to finish his rookie season with 9.8 win shares (Win shares are an estimate of the number of wins contributed by a player. They were invented by Bill James for baseball, than later adapted for basketball. If you’re curious about how it works, read this: http://www.basketball-reference.com/about/ws.html. P.S: I tried to read it, and then my head exploded. Just a word to the wise…). How good is that number of 9.8 win shares? Really freaking good.

Here’s a list of the greatest win share seasons by rookies of the past thirty years (courteous of the New York Times basketball blog, Off the Dribble).

David Robinson (89-90): 15.1

Michael Jordan (84-85): 14.0

Tim Duncan (97-98): 12.8

Larry Bird (79-80): 11.2

Magic Johnson (79-80): 10.5

Shaquille O’Neal (92-93): 10.4

Chris Paul (05-06): 10.4

Hakeem Olajuwon (84-85): 10.2

Blake Griffin, of course ranks ninth, right behind Hakeem the dream. That’s just about the greatest company one could hope for, with five hall of famers, two soon to be hall of famers, and one guy known as the evolutionary Isaiah.

Do I sound kind of like a fan boy? Wouldn’t doubt it. Am I delusional? A little. Do I realize we’re not even to the all-star break yet? Yes. Would I make out with Richard Simmons for front court seats to a L.A Clippers game? I won’t answer that, but just know I thought about it. Not only is Blake Griffin the most exciting athlete in professional sports, through 46 games he is putting up one of the best rookie seasons of the past thirty years. A true franchise player.

Dipping beyond stats for a moment, Blake Griffin’s greatest accomplishments might be making the Clippers relevant, and causing point guard Baron Davis to care again (about things other than food). Who has wanted to watch the other L.A team play over the past—I don’t know, ten years? Were you that excited to watch Chris Kaman brick a hook shot? Davis has been a good player when he tried, but making him want to try is the difficult part. He’s settled in to his role as facilitator and third banana—content to throw alley-oops to Griffin. Blake is like Baron’s new toy, every game he likes to try a new trick with him. I’m just waiting for that full court alley-oop, its coming any day now…

The Clips have been plagued by a dogmatic and ignorant owner for the last 479 years (rough estimation), but finally they have a reason to hope. A few more role players and half cognizant coach later, we might have the next contender for the Western Conference throne…

Read This

I wouldn't normally devote an entire post to one link, but this column by Les Carpenter deserves it. It's not often that a piece of writing leaves me speechless, this was one of them. Read it.

http://www.thepostgame.com/homepage/201101/big-coach-little-gym

Quarterback Cogitations

This is the age of the quarterback. The NFL is now a passing league. The Quarterback is the most important person on the football field. How many times have you heard those sentiments over the past several years? Too often, I’m sure. But the quarterback position truly is phenomenally important, and its significance can often be misunderstood. I had several revelations while watching Sunday’s doubleheader (a rarity for me, I know) about the most deified of athletic positions.
I love stats, I really do. I use them often to support a point or to define an argument. They’re integral in sports talk and every fan worth his salt is a living encyclopedia of them. As recently as last week I was fairly confident in all the statistics we have to define a quarterback’s performance. These include: passing yards, touchdown passes, interceptions, completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating. Those together, give a pretty perfect picture of a quarterback’s day—or so I thought. That assumption has been challenged—not only by the conference championship games but the year as a whole.

Allow me to begin this case study with Ben Roethlisberger; a quarterback, who—at least on the surface—seemed to have a poor game against the New York Jets. His stats: 10-19, 133 yards, 7 ypa, 35.5 QB rating, 11 runs for 21 yards and a touchdown. Those don’t look good, in fact, they look terrible. But the game itself told an entirely different story. How about Ben’s ability to stay upright and move around the pocket—a talent Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees simply don’t possess. What about Roethlisberger’s ability to make plays in the nick of time? That sounds so archaic…I know. If you’re a huge stat nerd you probably exited this site before you even finished this sentence. But it’s undeniable—when the Steelers need a play, Big Ben makes it. (Examples from the AFC championship include Ben’s third and 12 scramble, his touchdown run, and his two clutch throws to end the game)

This isn’t a new idea. It’s called being great in the “clutch” or being unflappable under pressure. Great athletes throughout the years have had it, guys like Joe Montana, Michael Jordan, Roger Staubach. These plays that great players make show up on the stat sheet simply as just another play. Think of it in basketball terms: where an athlete’s clutchness is often defined by his ability to make key shots even if he’s shooting poorly. When I guy goes 2-14 for the night, and then hits the game winning three—that’s nerve. Not many people have that quality.

Is all I’m doing rehashing old principles? Fans have always revered athletes that have that certain quality—athletes who relish the opportunity to secure a win with a couple impossible plays. But the quarterback position is often defined simply by the passing yards accumulated, the touchdowns thrown, the interceptions avoided. We simply have no way to define a QB’s clutchness—we need one. Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers, Mark Sanchez, is some of what they do unquantifiable? Stat geeks mobilize! Too bad I suck at math…

The difficulties of having an immobile quarterback…

The New York Jets defense was able to stonewall first Peyton Manning, and then Tom Brady. Why couldn’t they do the same to Ben Roethlisberger? Mobility.

Michael Lombardi brought this point up on the most recent “B.S Report”. When a quarterback is as unable to create plays on the run as Brady and Manning are, it makes it even harder to beat the man coverage so prevalent in the Jet’s defensive strategy. Man coverage creates some openings that allow a mobile quarterback to run, and big Ben took advantage. New York failed to take Ben’s legs into account, and it cost them. As Lombardi pointed out, they needed to treat Roethlisberger like Michael Vick.

Ben’s ability to avoid the rush and extend the play also played a huge part in Pittsburgh’s win. Not only did his receivers have more time to lose their man, but New York’s defensive backs often bit on Ben’s pump fakes and began cheating off their coverage’s as Roethlisberger moved around the backfield.

Big Ben brings a whole new set of skills to the table…

On Jay Cutler…

2011’s instant classic The Fighter revolves around boxer Micky Ward, a working class man who grew to fame not just because of his talent but his determination. His fighting style revolved around absorbing massive amounts of punishment, wearing his opponent down, and then delivering the knockout blow with a couple viscous right handers. Ward’s ability to get the crap beaten out of him yet triumph in the end is a characteristic that American’s revere and one that has made millions and millions of dollars at the box office.

So it’s no wonder Jay Cutler has been lambasted by the fans and media after he did not return to action midway through Sunday’s NFC championship. I’m sure y’all know the story by now…Cutler was injured in the last drive of the first half and didn’t return to the contest—despite looking quite healthy as he watched the game unfold from the sideline.

It looked more like he was benched, or refused to return to the game (as the Bears were getting blown out by 14-0) rather than being legitimately injured. When most players are injured—scratch that, ALL—one of four things happen. 1) The injured player in question is being carted off the field. 2) He’s getting vigorously worked on by a legion of trainers on the sideline as he grimaces towards the camera. 3) He lies motionless on the field for several long, terrifying minutes. 4) A couple medical staffers aid the injured player as he limps off the field and disappears for the game. What did Cutler do? He stood on the sideline, bundled in a Chicago Bears wind breaker, with the familiar “I’d rather take a ride through a trash compactor than be on this field” scowl.

I’m not going to question Jay Cutler’s toughness based on one game. Throughout his quarterbacking career he’s suffered behind awful offensive lines (going back to his days at Vanderbilt). He’s been sacked 87 times over the past two seasons and missed only one game (after he was sacked 11 times against the Giants)…he can take the punishment.

Do you really think that Cutler’s teammates would have defended him as steadfastly as they did if he did indeed fake (or milk) an injury? Here’s a clue for you: they wouldn’t. It’s common knowledge throughout the sports world that Jay isn’t the most likeable of fellows—making it all the more likely his teammates would simply call him out. We see it all the time; players are people too; if they see something they don’t like on their own team, they’ll let people know. Brian Urlacher—the undisputed heart of the Chicago Bears—would not let Cutler get a pass for faking.

Cutler, we now know, suffered a grade two MCL sprain—which will not require surgery, but takes roughly 3-4 weeks to recover from. Stephania Bell of ESPN said that an MCL sprain restricts lateral movement and makes it difficult to plant full weight through the leg. You can see how that would be quite a problem for a quarterback. Lovie Smith added in his press conference, "You never want a player on the field if he can't protect himself or perform his duties.” Ding, ding, ding!!!

This isn’t to say no one is at fault here. Every single person on the Bear’s PR staff needs to think about where they went wrong in handling this situation. I don’t care if he didn’t need crutches or a massive brace; it looked really really bad from the onlooker’s perspective. At least help the poor guy out and create the illusion that Cutler was severely injured. Cutler—though incapable of playing—deserves some blame also. Not once did we see him pouring over play sheets, or helping Hanie/Collins execute the offense. He gave the whole world the impression he had mentally checked out after his team was getting blown out of Soldier Field.

Please, Jay, make it look like you care…

Defense still wins championships…

It’s so easy to become enticed by all the high scoring offenses that proliferate the NFL these days. But what level of defense do we have in the Super Bowl this year? According to the Football Outsiders DVOA statistic we have the number one (Steelers) and number two (Packers) defensive squads. That’s not to say top ranked offenses can’t win it all either (Green Bay has the seventh ranked offense, Steelers the 5th) but it highlights the importance of defense in what many are proclaiming an offensively dominated league.

That’s partly true, 2010 saw 22 quarterbacks throw for 3,000+ yards—a league record. The 2007 Patriots nearly won the Super Bowl with the best offense ever (still bitter) and games are resulting in higher scores than ever before. But the fact remains, any offense can be stopped. Over the past ten or fifteen years, can you ever remember one that hasn’t been stymied? Bill Belichick engineered a brilliant game plan to shut down “The greatest show on turf” in the 2001 Super Bowl. The New York Giants sacked Tom Brady five times en route to a shocking Super Bowl upset. The only counter I can think of is the 2009 Saints, but they weren’t even the top ranked offense of that season!

So what does this prove? That you need both to win a championship. Anything can be stopped...you’re team better be able to win left handed if a Super Bowl victory is the ultimate goal.

Take it from a grieving Patriots fan…

I’ll leave you with this:

Perhaps the greatest video I have ever seen. Pay attention to Rashard Mendenhall (No. 34) as he jumps on Big Ben’s back. He does something quite interesting…

Conference Chamionship Picks

Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears

Why the Bears can win it:

1) Field Conditions: Green Bay set football fans across America acting like little school-girls after eviscerating the Falcons in the Georgia Dome. As the name indicates, it was a dome—meaning perfect field conditions, and no adverse weather that could possibly affect any facet of the game. Soldier Field is pretty much the opposite. Crappy turf (that the Bears have experience playing on), cold weather, and always a chance for catastrophic wind conditions. Not ideal for a team fast becoming “the greatest show on turf” 2.0…on average turf at least.

2) A history of containing the Packer’s offense: Green bay managed to score only ten points week 17 in a game they had to have to earn a playoff berth that mattered nothing to Chicago. They put up only 17 points in a week three loss to the Bears. If there is one similarity between both contests it’s that Green Bay’s running game was virtually non-existent. In week 17 they totaled 60 yards with Rodgers leading the way running for 21 yards on seven carries. In week three they totaled only 63 yards—John Kuhn the high man with 31 on six carries. Is that enough when the passing game might be hampered due to weather and the turf?

One of Chicago’s greatest strengths defensively is the ability to stop the big play with their cover-two defense. That matches up well with the Packer’s offense that is one of the most explosive in the league. Whether or not Green Bay can get those big, back-breaking plays will in all likelihood determine who wins this contest.

3) The Return Game: Chicago’s greatest advantage lies in their excellent special teams unit (1st in DVOA). The Bears accumulated 184 return yards in their matchup with the Packers back in September on three punt returns and three kick returns. They must dominate the field position battle again if they are to beat Green Bay.

Why the Packers can win it:

1) Aaron Rodgers: At the risk of sounding like the rest of the sports talk world I will admit that Aaron Rodgers is the hottest quarterback in the NFL, and two wins away from grabbing the “best quarterback alive” crown from Tom Brady. His stats for the 2011 postseason (two games): 546 passing yards, six touchdowns, 78 percent passes completed, zero interceptions, and one rushing touchdown. Chicago contained Rodgers and the offense fairly well in the regular season, but can they do it a third time against a quarterback playing his best ball ever? My gut says no.

2) Chicago’s weak offensive line: Green Bay has one huge advantage in this contest: one of the best pass rushers alive in Clay Mathews. And they also have defensive tackle B. J. who has been a force (five sacks over last seven games) and Charles Woodson—probably the best pass rushing defensive back in the game. Green Bay’s pressure package is most definitely strong enough to harass Jay Cutler all game long. The Bear’s line hasn’t been exposed in weeks, but this could be the Sunday it falls apart.

Bottom Line: Chicago has some of the more archaic theories favoring them, such as the “nobody believes in us” corollary, the fact that Green Bay has been hyped so much that they may be overrated, and the Packer’s tendency to commit a few dumb penalties per game as well as coach Mike McCarthy committing a few coaching blunders at the worst possible times. But if you look at it objectively, Green Bay is the more talented team--definitely on offense (by 60 miles) and maybe even on defense. It feels wrong to pick the Pack because every blowhard in America is siding with them—but it’s the right move. I went with Atlanta because of all the little things, completely disregarding Green Bay's superior talent. I won't make that mistake again.

Prediction: Green Bay-31, Chicago-20

New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Why the Jets can win it:

1) Health: The Jets are completely healthy, the Steelers are not. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is not playing well (nearly lost them the game last week), and Polamalu isn’t dominating games like a healthy Polamalu once did.

2) Pass rush: Like I mentioned above, the Steeler’s offensive line literally doesn’t have any bodies left, they’re down to the lowest of the low on the depth chart. After seeing what the Jets D-line did to the Pats last week, there is no reason to think they can’t have a repeat performance against Pitt. Shaun Ellis had the game of his life against New England, and he will have to do the same in his matchup with Pittsburgh Center Maurice Pouncey.

Rex Ryan has been masterful thus far in the postseason in devising schemes to shut down first Peyton Manning and then Tom Brady. I expect to see Ryan come up with some creative pressure schemes that will bother Big Ben.

3) Secondary: It looks like Darrelle Revis will be covering Hines Ward and Antonio Cromartie will be given the tough assignment of matching up with Mike Wallace. Wallace is just the type of receiver Cromartie like to cover and Antonio should be up to the task with his length and speed. With Revis locking up Hines Ward, the burden will fall on Pittsburgh’s young receivers Emmanuel Sanders and Antonio Brown. They have shown in recent weeks that they are capable of doing just that, and the Jets should struggle containing their speed with their third and fourth defensive backs. New York handled New England’s slow receiving core, are they capable of doing the same against a much faster group?

Why the Steelers can win it:

1) Big Ben: Unlike Tom Brady, Ben Roethlisberger is at his best when he’s forced out of the pocket. New York has a definite advantage against the offensive line, but they must contain Big Ben or else the matchup is a wash. With all of the speed Pittsburgh enjoys in the receiving corps, expect a couple deep ball connections that will swing the game.

2) Defense: No shit I hear you say. It may be obvious, but it must be said. Neither New England’s defense nor Indianapolis’s was capable of pressuring or confusing Mark Sanchez, yet I believe the Steelers will be. Polamalu didn’t play in the Steeler’s week 15 loss and they felt it. He is so important to the defense with his ability to cover the entire field, blitz the quarterback, and his nose for the ball. This will be the Sanchize’s toughest matchup in weeks…

3) Receiving Corps: For Pittsburgh to win, their stable of wideouts must have outstanding games. Even with Cromartie covering him week 15, Mike Wallace still managed to catch seven balls for 102 yards. Even though it’s an excellent matchup for Antonio, what transpired in their last meeting must still worry Rex and friends. Wallace is definitely capable of another big day, but it looks like this one will fall on the shoulders of Sanders and Brown. Both will have favorable matchups, at least one needs to deliver.

Bottom Line: Both squads strength lies in defense, and both possess elite running games. The difference lies in the quarterbacks, where Ben Roethlisberger has played his best in big moments and Mark Sanchez can make big plays but is maddeningly inconsistent.

Also, the Jets reaped the benefit of a kick return touchdown week 15 that proved to be the difference in the game. Then, they got a safety in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter and still almost lost. The chances that New York gets a special team’s touchdown and a safety again in the same game is slim, which means they will have to rely more on offensive execution and defensive dominance to win this one.

In that respect, I like the Steelers…

Prediction: Steelers-27, Jets-20

Morning Fix

Michael Silver on the tight relationship between Darrelle Revis and Rex Ryan:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=Ag4o7Bkzpw1Iu4Kvdyv1OCY5nYcB?slug=ms-revisryanjets012011

An interesting read over at the Football Outsiders about the Steeler's offensive line and Baltimore's Blitz:
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/word-muth/2011/word-muth-one-game-season

Celtics Hub delivers all the information you need about the Celtics and Jermain O'Neal's plan to return:
http://celticshub.com/2011/01/20/jermaine-oneals-full-recovery-plan-courtesy-of-danny-ainge/#more-15147

Patrick Hruby discusses how to survive at you local health club and the various archetypal characters you will encounter: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/page2/story?page=hruby/110120_gym_freaks

An interesting (if depressing) theory that most NBA playoff teams from last year are actually worse this time around: http://hoopdata.com/blogengine/post/2011/01/21/Too-Many-Teams-Getting-WORSE!.aspx

Blake Griffin and Redemption (Not what you think):
http://www.hardwoodparoxysm.com/2011/01/21/blake-griffin-redemption-for-the-reluctant/

Video of the day:
Mike Tomlin takes a dig at ESPN reporter that divulged team plays...pretty funny.
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Tomlin-takes-a-dig-at-ESPN-reporter-for-divulgin?urn=nfl-310130

Morning Fix

This is a new post I'm going to try out for the next couple of weeks. I might not have time every morning, but I will be as diligent about it as possible. Enjoy.

Mike Reiss of ESPNBoston shares his thoughts on the Patriots offensive needs this offseason.
http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/new-england-patriots/post/_/id/4692207/assessing-patriots-need-for-rb-wr

Michael Lombardi of NFL.com provides a thoroughly excellent analysis of where the Ravens and Patriots are headed this offseason: http://www.nfl.com/news/story/09000d5d81dcb207/article/patriots-ravens-need-to-take-hard-look-at-shortcomings?module=HP_spotlight

Adrian Wojnarowski tackles Prokhorov's stunning decision to back out of Melo' talks
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news;_ylt=AnsVkmccsEga8M5pU_tjM7c5nYcB?slug=aw-netsanthony011911

Tom Brady is going to have foot surgery today. I just vomited all over my keyboard.
http://www.boston.com/sports/football/patriots/articles/2011/01/20/tom_brady_to_have_surgery_on_right_foot/

Deer Antlers and football. If that doesn't make any sense (it shouldn't), read this:
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news;_ylt=AoNqYWJAIlBNpl4zRZB54OhDubYF?slug=dw-deerantlers011911

Chris Forsberg of ESPN outlines exactly why Shaq is still awesome at 38:
http://sports.espn.go.com/boston/nba/columns/story?columnist=forsberg_chris&id=6039945

Deadspin with a note on the craziness of Tom Jackson:
http://deadspin.com/5737952/tom-jackson-is-an-insane-person

Deadspin with a hilarious take on the most recent Al Davis sighting. (Warning: have a vomit basket in hand)
http://deadspin.com/5737664/last-nights-winner-al-davis-for-still-being-alive

Former Broncos Tight End Nate Jackson with an interesting take on trash talking:
http://deadspin.com/5736740/

Fascinating column on Carmelo Anthony. How good is he, really?
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/23950/carmelo-anthony-superstar

If you want to have a clear understanding of the NFL labor situation READ THIS by Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk: http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/01/12/ten-things-to-know-about-the-labor-situation/

Way too Much Vitriol for One Man to Handle

The President of the United States has a cabinet made up of 37 advisors. The White house staff is made up of roughly 1,700 people. That’s 1,737 men and woman who have one goal in life: to help the president perform at the top of his game. In football, there are ten other athletes whose singular goal on the football field is to allow the quarterback to play the best he can possibly play. Receivers must run precise routes and have the ability to make difficult catches. Running backs need to have a nose for the hole, always push forward, and be able to pick up the blitz. The offensive line must understand who they’re blocking and execute. Tight ends must be able to run a great route and catch a tough ball one play then block the next. When everyone does their job, all the quarterback needs to do is understand the situation and throw the football.


When everyone isn’t on the same page, more falls on the quarterbacks shoulder—more than any one man is capable of. Football is the penultimate team sport, there are no one man wrecking crews. How can a QB complete a pass when the intended target doesn’t turn around? How can the quarterback function when a 330 pound behemoth breaks through the line play after play? In a sport as team oriented as football, everyone needs to function as one. The quarterback signs the bills, but there are many people that make it happen.

All season the Patriots had us fooled. They looked to be the most balanced New England team since their Super Bowl winning years. An improving defense, the first 1K rusher since Corey Dillon, a stable of wide receivers, a dangerous special teams unit, a mistake free squad…wasn’t this team made for the Super Bowl?

They had us fooled.

Tom Brady threw the ball 45 times Sunday night—a season high. Balance, what balance? The offensive line couldn’t block Shaun Ellis and Mike DeVito to save its life (or the life of its quarterback for that matter). Deion Branch flat dropped the biggest catch of the season on 4th and 13 late into the game. Woodhead and Green-Ellis badly missed several blitz pickups. An offense that has performed like a well-oiled machine for the past eight straight games looked like they just met and challenged the neighborhood bad boys to a pickup game.

Perhaps the biggest factor in Tom Brady’s success this season was the balance and depth at every position along the offense. And better yet…they were all on the same page—unlike last year. It came crashing down Sunday night as Brady was forced to carry an impossible load. He was sacked five times and hit even more. How is that supposed to not affect him? Pundits and fans alike are questioning Brady’s once prodigious “clutchness”. This isn’t Brady people, this is an offensive line that was confused and pushed around all game. This was a group of receivers that weren’t running precise routes or making the tough catches. Yeah, Brady’s pick was bad. But they recovered, and the turnover resulted in zero points. Tom put it behind him, drove his team the length of the field, and fired a perfect pass to Alge Crumpler for a touchdown—only to have the veteran drop it.

In a sport where success is determined by the team as a whole, the Patriots relied too heavily on their all-pro quarterback. Take a page from the Jets, talent--sometimes--beats scheme.

A run-down of how the Pats lost, the way I see it:

1. Wide Receivers couldn’t get open

There were times when Brady had all day-I counted two plays in which he had five seconds to throw-and he still couldn’t find an open receiver. Darelle Revis is almost like a defensive back in Madden. Branch broke left; Revis was one step ahead of him. He ran a dig to the middle, Revis sniffed it out. He was so good it sometimes looked like pass interference because you couldn’t imagine how a human got so close to another human without making contact. A video game corner made flesh…


2. Offensive Line got destroyed

You know that one scene in Deliverance, the one the film is most famous for: “Squeal like a pig”? The New England Patriot’s offensive line was unfortunately on the receiving end of that awful incident. The most shocking part? There were times when New York only sent three guys—and they still would get to Tom-not-so-terrific. ESPN’s Sal Paolantonio reports that New York blitzed only six times. SIX TIMES!!! The look on Brady’s face for most of the game was terrifying for Patriots fans, and shocking for the rest of America. Again, nothing special by the Jets, just Shaun Ellis and Mike DeVito dominating a line known as one of the best in the league.


3. Emotions favored the Jets

Not the most definitive of factors, but here me out. Wes Welker’s foot filled press conferences was humorous, but it might have swung the emotional energy the Jets way. New York seemed particularly fired up that Wes had taken shots at Ryan’s wife, an off limit topic to the Jet’s players. If you haven’t heard Bart Scott’s postgame comments yet, it’s a must-see: http://espn.go.com/new-york/video/clip?id=6028527.


Vince Wilfork admitted Monday that he didn’t agree with Welker’s benching for the first drive of the game…did other teammates feel that way? Probably, considering Wilfork is one of the leaders in the locker room. I don’t think it’s a stretch to imagine that the benching of one of the team’s most popular players put everyone in the wrong frame of mind.


Welker’s antics didn’t result in the Patriot’s poor execution across the board, but it may have affected the unity of the team. As the Jets were slapping helmets and having a good time, New England seemed tight and nervous. Remember that Pittsburgh game week ten? As New England got off to a bad start Brady could be seen screaming at his offensive counterparts like Al Pacino from Any Given Sunday. That’s the version I like to see—not “deer in the headlights” Brady.

A note on New York’s prolific trash talk:

It was obnoxious, belligerent, rage inducing…and brilliant. Mark Sanchez, fresh off a poor performance against the Indianapolis Colts figured to be a fixture in the national spotlight leading up to the game…and not in a good way. But, instead of “How can the Jets beat the 14-2 Patriots with an erratic quarterback like Sanchez” it was “What we’ll Rex Ryan come up with next?” You barely heard a peep about New York’s wildly inconsistent quarterback; instead, you couldn’t get through five minutes of Sports Center without a clip of Ryan’s many press conferences.

The Jets made this one personal. It wasn’t just your average playoff game; it was a chance to avenge a week eleven embarrassment and to vanquish their arrogant foes. They didn’t approach Sunday night with quiet determination, but rather loud bellicosity. This wasn’t just a game, a vessel to entertain millions and earn a paycheck—it was war. Don’t you get the feeling the Jets really do hate the Patriots? Bart Scott scares me. If you gave him a club, tied Brady to a chair, and informed Bart that he would only serve six months in prison for beating the snot out of Tom…I don’t think he would do it. But he would think about it. He’s a scary individual.

Rex Ryan masterfully played the 45-3 beating into the Jets favor. They weren’t intimidated by the Pats, only pissed and ever so confidant. For all of Ryan’s sloppy appearance and seemingly silly demeanor, he is a master manipulator and tactician. He worked his team up to a “Norse berserker” like frenzy and formulated a game plan that put a choke hold on the league’s top offense.

Ryan said this battle was “all about Belichick vs. Rex Ryan”. He said this was personal. And he said after the game that no one out-coaches Bill Belichick.

Rex, for once you have all the right in the world to be brash.

Division Round Part II

Seattle Seahawks @ Chicago Bears

Do I dare bet against the Seattle Seahawks? Yes, yes I do. For the 7-9 Hawk’s to beat the defending champs was impressive, but let us not forget the 17 previous weeks of evidence we have that points to Seattle being one of the poorer teams in the league. Their win against the Saints was impressive, but look at some of the factors going against the Saints:

-New Orleans was down to Reggie Bush (a prototypical third down back’) and Julius Jones, who has rushed for 2,172 yards over the past five years, in the backfield.

-Malcolm Jenkins-New Orleans best defensive back-did not play. His replacement, Roman Harper was beyond awful.

-The Saints had to travel 5,000 miles across the country and play in the loudest stadium in football.

-Seattle had the “nobody believes in us” corollary fueling them, one of the most underrated motivational factors in sports.

I’m not taking anything away from the Seahawks—they totally deserved to win—but play that game ten times, and the Saints win seven.

Key Matchup: DE Raheem Brock vs. LT Frank Omiyale

Everyone knows Chicago’s Achilles heel: pass blocking. It’s improved since they were demolished by the Giants early in the season, but it is still the Bears weakest unit. Seattle’s Raheem Brock is coming off an impressive three game hot streak in which he’s notched four sacks and two forced fumbles. Chicago tackle Frank Omiyale has a tough assignment containing Brock…he will need to be successful if the Bears want to move the ball.

Possible Goat: Jay Cutler

We know three things about Jay Cutler: He’s got the emotional capacity of a coffee cup, he’s got a rocket arm, and he tends to have a couple “crap the toilet” quarterback performances per year. Cutler has had eight straight good games; he’s bound for a stinker at some point—right? If Chicago loses it’s because their offensive line fails to block and Jay Cutler implodes. Jay is the quarterback; therefore he’ll take the brunt of the blame…

Possible Hero not named Jay Cutler, Devin Hester, Matt Hasselbeck or other noticeable player: Leon Washington

Chicago is favored by nine. I’ve gone through the most critical matchup. If Seattle wins, it will also be because of a huge special teams play. Mark it, note it, carve it in stone, brand it on your forehead. Leon Washington is the guy who will likely make it happen.

Stat of the game: Jay Cutler was sacked six times, and the Bears went 0-12 on third down during these two teams last matchup in week six.

Interesting subplot that doesn’t really matter: Apparently, Jay Cutler is no Teddy Bear. Check it out: http://sports.espn.go.com/espn/news/story?id=6017986.

Prediction: Chicago-27 Seattle-17


New York Jets @ New England Patriots



That about covers it…

After a week of trash talking that has reached an intolerable level it’s finally game time. Is it telling that New York was a minute away from losing to the banged-up-beyond-belief Indianapolis Colts? New England has great matchups across the board offensively, and the Jets have struggled to pressure the quarterback all season.

The Patriots have been on an incredible no turnover streak, and as we saw from Atlanta, all good things come to an end. I’m waiting with bated breath for a multiple turnover game from my beloved Pats…all it takes is a couple bad breaks.

Key Matchup: Antonio Cromartie vs. whoever he covers

New York added Cromartie during the offseason specifically to matchup with Randy Moss, and other big, fast wideouts such as Miami’s Brandon Marshal or Houston’s Andre Johnson. Now that Moss is gone Cromartie doesn’t have an ideal matchup against any of New England’s undersized wideouts. He was burned repeatedly during the Monday Night Massacre, what does Rex Ryan do with him this time? He would seem to pair well with TE Rob Gronkowski but that would leave either Branch or Welker with an obvious mismatch. Brady is incredible at finding mismatches, it will be key for the Jets to minimize them.

Possible Goat: Rex Ryan

He’ll be a joke for a longggg time if he doesn’t win this game—especially if his Jets are blown out of Foxborough. This is a reckoning of sorts for Ryan, he’s thrown all his chips on the table—he needs to deliver. No one will take him seriously if he doesn’t either win or take the Patriots to the brink.



Possible Hero not named Tom Brady, Darrelle Revis, Danny Woodcock-I mean Woodhead, or other noticeable player: Eric Smith

Jets strong safety Eric Smith was obliterated during the 45-3 beat down. That was his first opportunity as starter, with several games now under his belt Smith has performed dramatically better. Brady picked on him repeatedly in their former matchup, can he come back strong? He’ll need to…

Stat of the game: Tom Brady has thrown 14 touchdowns to 12 interceptions over his last eight playoff games.

Interesting subplot that doesn’t really matter: Bart Scott had this to say to Newsday about Wes Welker, “I’ll tell you what. Be very careful what you say about our coach, His (Welker’s) days in a uniform will be numbered. Put it that way.”

Stay classy New York!

Prediction: New England-33 New York-20

Division Round Part I

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers

These contests are always bloody, always close, and are always decided by who makes the big play at the end of the game. When the Steelers won this year, it was Polamalu getting the strip sack towards the end of the fourth quarter. When the Ravens won earlier in the season it was Flacco connecting with Houshmandzadeh for the go ahead touchdown in the last minute.

Key Matchup: Mike Wallace vs. whoever is covering him.

Baltimore’s defense has one weakness: speed. They were able to shutout Dwayne Bowe, but Mike Wallace is a different animal entirely. Wallace is one of the two or three fastest players in the game, and he seems to connect with Big Ben on a sixty yard bomb at least once per game. If Wallace dominates, it will put more pressure on the Ravens offense—exactly what Pittsburgh wants.

Possible Goat: Steeler’s offensive line.

It’s banged up beyond recognition. They’re starting tow backup tackles, and they’re facing a defensive line headed by 350 pound behemoth Haoli Ngata. It may take three guys to contain him—then you’ve got Terrell Suggs, Ed Reed, and Ray Lewis blitzing? It could be a rather uncomfortable day for Ben Roethlisberger in the pocket. If that’s the case, the Ravens have a huge advantage.

Possible Hero not named Big Ben, Joe Flacco, Ray Rice or other noticeable player: Lardarius Webb

With Chris Carr a game time decision and Lardarius Webb Baltimore’s fastest corner he will likely get the daunting assignment of covering Mike Wallace. If he can deliver a magical performance and channel his inner Revis, it will make it a hell of a lot easier for Ngata and friends to get to Big Ben.

Stat of the game: The combined score of the last 17 Baltimore-Pittsburgh contests: 302-302.

Interesting subplot that doesn’t really matter: Terrell Suggs wore this shirt in a Wednesday press conference:



If I had to throw up a wild guess, I would say the Ravens won’t have a warm welcome in Heinz Field…

Prediction: Steelers: 23 Ravens: 17


Green Bay Packers @ Atlanta Falcons

I may be the only person in America (outside of Atlanta) picking the Falcons. The Packers have to be one of the biggest bandwagon teams of the past five years. In one sentence here’s why I like the dirty birds: Green Bay likes to shoot itself in the foot, repeatedly (ok, allow me a few more sentences). Between Mike McCarthy bungling timeouts at a Jim Caldwellian level, a few more penalties than you would like to see, and a prolific offense that like’s to take it’s foot off the gas at the worst possible times you have a possible “coaching implosion”. Atlanta doesn’t shoot itself in the foot, and always put’s itself in position to win. Advantage: Atlanta

Key Matchup: James Starks vs. Atlanta’s front seven

I know the Packer’s offensive line plays a huge part in Stark’s success but it’s more fun to talk about Green Bay’s secret weapon, ok? James Starks topped 120 yards against the Eagles in his first NFL start—that’s downright cockamamie. Without a running game the Pack have no ability to protect a lead and are easier to defend—with a back capable of running for 100+ yards that weakness is lessened. If Starks can have a repeat performance the advantage tips Green Bay’s way.

Possible Goat: Atlanta’s play calling and Mike McCarthy’s game management.

I couldn’t pick one—sue me. The Falcon’s lost to New Orleans week 16 because offensively they played not to lose. If they’re play calling continues to be that conservative they will be one and done. You need to take risks to beat great teams—conservative offense doesn’t get it done. Hopefully Mike Smith and company learned they’re lesson.

Mike McCarthy’s game management Wildcard weekend was atrocious. I went into detail about it in my Wildcard recap column, check it out. If Green Bay loses a close one I fear we’ll be able to blame a couple miss-used timeouts or suspect play calling as the result.

Possible Hero not named Aaron Rodgers, Matt Ryan, Clay Mathews or other noticeable player: Michael Jenkins

The former first round pick can truly earn his paycheck with a monster performance Saturday night. Atlanta’s most glaring weakness is a lack of explosive offensive players. Roddy White is tremendous, but they suffer a dramatic drop off after that. Green Bay’s got Greg Jennings and Donald Driver; the Patriots have Wes Welker and Deion Branch. Jenkins needs to play like an elite number two wideout for the birds’. If not, Atlanta won’t put up the requisite points to defeat the Pack.

Stat of the game: Aaron Rodgers numbers during his three years as starter: 12,394 yards, 86 touchdowns, 31 interceptions, 13 rushing touchdowns.

Interesting subplot that doesn’t really matter: Clay Matthew’s is a pro bowl linebacker for the Packers. His father played 278 games in the NFL, the third most all time. His uncle was inducted into the pro football Hall of Fame in 2007 and is widely considered one of the greatest offensive linemen ever. His grandfather played four seasons in the NFL for the San Francisco 49ers. His younger brother Casey plays for the Oregon Ducks, and forced a fumble against Auburn in the national championship that would have been the play of the game if Auburn didn’t storm back with the winning field goal. Clay needs to mate with Serena Williams and create a new family sports dynasty.


Prediction: Atlanta: 28 Packers: 24

Must See TV

If you watch anything tonight watch these:

(Put it this way, how many more trailers of  "The Rite" and "Season of the Witch" do you want to suffer through?)

Enjoy, Picks will be up tomorrow morning.

Wildcard Recap

1. What were the Colts trying to do on offense?


Seriously, what the hell? You’ve got a team with an awful defense and a banged up offense. Your biggest strength: one of the greatest quarterbacks ever and a healthy number one wideout—one of the best in the game. Logically, you rely on your all-pro quarterback, and air it out, right? Actually, the Colts did the opposite. They went in with an ultra-conservative game plan and only targeted Reggie Wayne once. Keep in mind, Wayne is the same guy that caught 111 balls for over 1,300 yards during the regular season. Sure, Darelle Revis was covering him, but you would think the Colts would do everything possible to get him open…such as sending him in motion, moving him to the right side (he was on the left the entire game), trying to get Revis off of him. They didn’t, and they lost.

Indianapolis was also poor on third down (6-13) and even worse when facing third and short. They continuously attempted to run on those short third downs, and predictably failed. 29th ranked rushing attack, meet third best run defense. Balance is all well and good, but isn’t it logical in life to stop doing something that doesn’t work? Why is football any different? It was quite obvious going into the game that Indianapolis was going to be incapable of running on the Jets—therefore put the game in the hands of your best player: Peyton Manning. I have no way to prove this, but Peyton Manning was likely involved in many of those run calls, considering what a command he has over the offense and the amount of audibles he calls at the line of scrimmage. Judging by what New York’s defense was doing (dropping 7-8 guys in coverage) Peyton likely thought the best plan of attack was to run against a reduced box. Unfortunately he forgot two key points, the Colts halfbacks aren’t very good and their line is poor at run blocking. You get an A+ for selflessness Manning, but a D for execution…

2. Dwayne Bowe???

Bowe’s stock sky-rocketed this year after catching 15 touchdown passes and amassing over 1,100 receiving yards. He caught zero balls for zero yards for zero touchdowns against the Ravens. Is he really a number one wideout? His three best games this season were against his own division or the NFC west—the two worst in football. Not exactly a resume builder. Fox had a few great clips during the game against Baltimore of Bowe getting knocked on his ass as he began his route. That’s a clear indicator a guy is unable to beat man coverage and shake his man. Based on that, is Dwayne Bowe really a number one caliber wide receiver? I’m starting to think the answer is no…



3. Mark Sanchez is not playing like a Super Bowl caliber quarterback…

Solid defensive play and a strong ground game can only get you so far. Mark Sanchez needs to play at a high level if the Jets have a chance at beating the New England Patriots. He honestly looked awful Saturday night against the Colts. He overthrew something like 60 receivers, give or take a few. Even that last pass to Braylon Edwards that essentially won the game was more a great catch than a great throw. The explosive Patriots WILL put up points and the Jets will need to match them. We have no proof that Sanchez can in fact keep up with the Brady bunch. Sanchez will also need to prove he can perform at a high level in frigid weather—something he hasn’t really done at all during his short career. There won’t be snow (according to AccuWeather, at least) but it will be cold and windy. How will a quarterback who is wildly inaccurate perform in conditions that will only accentuate that weakness?


4. Mike McCarthy…oh boy.

I was legitimately angry after watching the Packers defeat the Eagles. And it wasn’t because of Any Reid’s mustache or Peyton Manning’s annoying new commercials. It was because witnessing Mike McCarthy manage the clock is like watching the unrated cut of the “Texas Chainsaw Massacre.” After a failed third down conversion by Philadelphia with just under two minutes to go-in field goal range-McCarthy refused to call TO, letting 40 seconds run off the clock. It then gets more bizarre. The Packers reverted between a classic two minute drill drive trying to score points and being content to let the clock run out. What were they thinking? If you’re going to run the clock out, just do it. Don’t run the ball, take a shot down field, then run it again.


5. Despite Baltimore’s big victory, weaknesses are evident…

I know, I’m a buzz kill. But after watching Baltimore defeat Kansas City I couldn’t help notice some of their more glaring weaknesses. Offensively, their receivers are slow and struggle to consistently get open. Joe Flacco doesn’t feel the rush like other elite quarterbacks, and Baltimore’s running game is BAD. Ray Rice seems to get at least 15 yards on every checkdown he catches but can’t seem to get any space on the ground. They were only able to gain the upper hand against the Chiefs when Baltimore’s defense forced a bunch of turnovers and took over the game. If their defense doesn’t dominate can the offense carry the team?


6. How the hell Seattle won:

This is how crazy Seattle’s victory was:

1. Matt Hasselbeck hasn’t thrown four touchdowns since October 11th, 2009.

2. Marshawn Lynch hasn’t rushed for 100+ yards since December 18th, 2008.

3. Seattle hadn’t beaten a team with a winning record since October 17th, 2009.

4. Pete Carroll’s first postseason victory since 1997.

5. The first team with a sub-.500 record to not only make the playoffs, but to win a playoff game.

6. Pete Carroll out-coached Sean Payton. You read that right.

I thought Seattle had a chance to win, yet I also thought it was more likely that after New York defeated Indianapolis Rex Ryan would leap onto Peyton Manning, smell his foot, than rip out his heart Conan style as Jim Caldwell watched passively from 15 feet away. It was late, okay. The Saints have had a top ten defense all season, while Seattle has had one of the three worst offenses all season. Who saw the Hawk’s dropping a 40-burger Sunday? I guess Malcolm Jenkins really is that good, and Roman Harper really is that bad.

But kudos to Pete Carroll for out-coaching Sean Payton, Matt Hasselbeck to playing out of his freakin’ mind and Marshawn Lynch to having one of the five greatest runs ever.

THIS SUCKS

I'm going through a severe case of writer's block...that's what is taking me so long to post my thoughts about wildcard weekend. Hopefully, I'll have them up either tonight or tomorrow.

Until then, this is an interesting/terrifying/exciting column about the upcoming deadline for renewal of the NFL's Collective Bargaining Agreement by Doug Farrar. Some revealing stuff in this one, definitely worth a read...

http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/50-days-away-a-lockout-looms-larger-than-ever?urn=nfl-306224

Wildcard Weekend Part II

Wait, the Seahawks won?

Baltimore Ravens @ Kansas City Chiefs (19-13)

I almost picked the Seahawks yesterday, but I couldn't bring myself to do it. I almost want to pick the Chiefs here, this time I'm going for it. Baltimore's offense has been less than stellar all season, lacking big play ability and-surprisingly-a strong running game. Kansas City plays well at home (7-1), and an efficient day from Matt Cassel will equal a loss for the Ravens. Can a less-than-average secondary contain Dwayne Bowe and an aging Ravens defense stop the one-two punch of Jamaal Charles + Thomas Jones (Thamaal Jarles)? I'm going with my gut-something I should have done yesterday.

Green Bay Packers @ Philadelphia Eagles (31-20)

I haven't been a believer in the Eagles all season, time to see if my thoughts hold up today. If you're curious, and you havent already, and you feel like digesting 5,000 words, take a gander at my postseason previews for each team a couple of posts ago. Their, I really describe why I don't like the Eagles. Packers will dominate...

Wildcard Weekend Part I

New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks (31-20)

Picking a team starting Reggie Bush and Julius Jones at running back may be a sign of how little confidence I have in Seattle. The Saints are so heavily favored I almost want to pick the hawks'. How about this, In Seattle's week 11 contest with the Saints Hasselbeck threw 366 yards, 1 touchdown and no picks for a 104.9 quarterback rating. That's terrifying. Did I mention New Orleans has less running game than Rex Ryan has tact, and thus no ability to protect a lead? I'm picking the Saints out of principle, but this could be a perfect storm...this paragraph needs to end before I change my mind.

New York Jets @ Indianapolis Colts (27-21)

I know Manning's team sucks, and I know the Jets went into the offseason looking to retool specifically so they could beat both the Patriots and Colts. I know this, but here me out. Peyton knows this defense, he knows how to beat it. He's still got Reggie Wayne, Pierre Garcon, and Joseph Addai. Give me Manning and his crippled group of friends any day over Sanchez and his under achieving group of miscreants.

Postseason Bonanza Part II

Seventeen weeks of football are over. That means three things: 1. you’re spared the sight of me as I limp and claw my way to a .500 record as I attempt, foolishly, to predict the outcomes of a sport that is notoriously hard to predict. 2. We may have just witnessed the last slate of regular season games for twenty months. 3. Instead of reading a 2,000 word column attempting to decipher the weeks’ worth of games, you are treated to 4,000 words trying to make sense of the playoffs. Bonus: a three month reprieve from all things Brett Favre, until, you know, a video clip of Favre in a drunken rage suddenly appears on YouTube…


This will be a multi-part feature analyzing the postseason from every possible angle; giving you the classic 3,000 word Blitzswish columns you have come to love hate. Part I will cover the various strengths/weaknesses of every team that has made the tournament, part II will be a preview of the wildcard round, while part III and beyond is to be decided while I sit in front of my computer screen at 3:00 in the morning.

(A note on statistics used: OFF and DEF is total yards gained (OFF) and total yards given up (DEF). Courteous of ESPN.com. DVOA=total team DVOA. OFF. DVOA=offensive DVOA. DEF. DVOA=defensive DVOA. DVOA statistics courteous of http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff).


AFC


Pittsburgh Steelers (12-4)

RANKS: OFF. (14th) DEF. (2nd) DVOA (2nd) OFF. DVOA (5th) DEF. DVOA (1st)

Why they’ll win it all: Dick LeBeau’s defenses are consistently the best in the league, and that’s no different this season. With Troy Polamalu healthy Pittsburgh’s D goes from good to phenomenal. They dominate nearly every defensive statistic there is, from yardage allowed (2nd) to rushing yardage allowed (1st) to QB pressures (1st with 48 sacks) to points allowed (1st with 14.5) to interceptions (5th with 21) to first downs allowed (5th) to third down conversions (tied for 2nd). That’s a really long way of informing you the Steelers defense is the best in the league…by far. They’ve given up more than 22 points only once this season, to the New England Patriots.

Offensively, the Steelers have the weapons to be great. Wideout Mike Wallace topped 1,200 receiving yards and grabbed double-digit touchdowns for the first time in his young career. After a sluggish start to the season for the passing game Roethlisberger seems to be rounding into form. The offense has averaged 26 points per game since week eight. Pittsburgh has recommitted running the ball this year, ranking 11th in rushing yardage after not cracking the top 18 in 2008 and 09’. They’ve found a work horse back in Rashard Mendenhall, diversifying their offense and taking part of the load off Ben Roethlisberger.

Don’t discount the Dick LeBeau effect; he’s the best defensive coordinator in football. There aren’t many people in the world that can formulate a defensive game plan like he can.

Why they won’t win it all: In week ten New England showed us that the Steeler’s defensive backs can be exposed if the quarterback gets excellent protection and is smart with the football. Brady was able to look Polamalu off and attack Pittsburgh’s corners. Not everyone has a quarterback and offensive line the caliber of the Patriots but they developed the blueprint to beat the “Steel Curtain”. I don’t know if another team is as capable of thrashing Pittsburgh’s D like the Pats, but if they meet again in the AFC championship, look out.

Scariest team to play: New England Patriots

Prediction: Appearance in the AFC championship

New England Patriots (14-2)

RANKS: OFF. (8th) DEF. (25th) DVOA (1st) OFF. DVOA (1st) DEF. DVOA (19th)

Why they’ll win it all: According to the football outsiders DVOA statistics the Patriots 2010 offense is the best they have ever recorded (going back to 1993)…even better than their 2007 counterparts. That’s pretty amazing when you consider the 07’ squad put up the most points in NFL history. Here’s the difference: With Moss gone, Brady can spread the ball to a bunch of different wideouts—all who work hard and run precision routes. It’s one of Brady’s greatest strengths, and he finally has an offense to accentuate it.

Enough can’t be said about the versatility and precision of New England’s offense. They have an excellent one-two bunch at runningback, two veteran, experienced receivers, and a pair of exemplary rookie tight ends. With a top five offensive line like the Pats have its hard to throw their offense off its game. The numbers they put up are astonishing. New England has scored at least 31 points in eight straight games, averaging 32 for the season. It’s not just porous defenses they’re taking advantage of—39 against the #1 ranked Steelers, 31 against the #2 ranked Packers, 36 against the #5 ranked Chicago Bears, 45 against the #6 ranked Jets. That’s four of the six best defenses in the NFL…and they have embarrassed each one.

New England’s offense wins games, but the defense has improved dramatically over the second half of the season. Average quarterback rating against the Patriots over the first ten games: 94.7. Over the past six: 56.5. The stat is skewed based on the level of QB they have faced recently, but even average quarterbacks were posting career days against the Pats earlier in the year (I’m looking at you Colt McCoy and Mark Sanchez).

Why they won’t win it all: The defense grew from “ugly” to “serviceable” as the season wore on but it remains young and mistake prone. Can emerging shutdown corner Devin McCourty handle the pressure of the postseason? What about Pat Chung and Brandon Spikes? The young D has played well against the likes of Peyton Manning and Ben Roethlisberger…can they do it again come the postseason? Inconsistency is always an issue with younger squads, especially come playoff time. Because of Bill Belichick and the presence of veterans such as Vince Wilfork I like their chances.

New England has also struggled to stop the run. It’s been covered up thanks to a high scoring offense that forces opponents to pass, but like the Packers showed, control the ball and you have a very good chance of winning. The team that beats the Patriots will run for at least 150 yards, maintain a 2:1 clock advantage, and find a way to grab an extra possession.

Scariest team to play: Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Super Bowl appearance

Baltimore Ravens (12-4)

RANKS: OFF. (22nd) DEF. (10th) DVOA (4th) OFF. DVOA (12th) DEF. DVOA (4th)

Why they’ll win it all: Like Pittsburgh, defense is the strength of the Baltimore Ravens. The fearsome threesome (never again) of Ray Lewis, Haloti Ngata, and Ed Reed has been the heart of the D for over five years. Baltimore gives up only 17 points a game, and Ed Reed leads the league in interceptions—even though he’s missed six games because of injury. Another interesting stat I came across: Baltimore’s four losses were by a combined 16 points…never losing one by more than five. It works the other way too, beating teams by double digits three times. It reminds me of the old Patriots, winning ugly but wining nevertheless.

Why they won’t win it all: Baltimore’s offense has shown flashes of what everyone thought it would be before the season, but overall it’s failed to reach expectations. Anquan Boldin, in particular, has failed to live up to his #1 receiver billing accumulating shy of 850 receiving yards after consecutive 1,000 yard seasons with the Cardinals. Ray Rice also has had a down year coming off a spectacular sophomore campaign. Although he’s broken 1,700 yards from scrimmage for the second straight season, his rushing average has plummeted from 5.3 per carry to 4.0. He’s been handed the ball 53 more times yet has done little to capitalize.

It seems the Raven have an identity crisis, varying between a pass heavy-spread you out attack to a pounding, run heavy style. They need to figure this out quick as they prepare to battle the Chiefs on wildcard week end. If they want to reach the Super Bowl they better hope their offense is better than average…

Scariest team to play: Indianapolis Colts

Prediction: Loss in the divisional round

Kansas City Chiefs (10-6)

RANKS: OFF. (12th) DEF. (14th) DVOA (17th) OFF. DVOA (13th) DEF. DVOA (21st)

Why they’ll win it all: Coming off a hideous 2009 campaign, KC has drastically improved on both sides of the ball (28th in DVOA last year)…a rare feat. Much of it is due to a strong rookie class and Matt Cassel’s MVP-type year. Cassel in particular has really grown into his role as a franchise quarterback after a moribund 2009 year. 2009: 2,924 yards, 16 TD’s, 16 interceptions, 69.9 QB rating. 2010: 3,116 yards, 27 TD’s, 7 interceptions, 93.0 QB rating. An incredible turn around by a guy all Pats fans are rooting for.

Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones form the league’s most effective one-two punch leading the NFL in rushing yardage and finishing amongst the top five in yards per carry. Jones is the wily veteran and an effective goal line runner but Charles might be the best back in the league. He finished the year with the highest per carry average since the merger—a crazy 6.4. Wideout Dwayne Bowe also had his coming out party this season—accumulating over 1,100 receiving yards and catching 15 touchdowns. To make a deep run Kansas City needs to be able to play with balance…limiting Cassel’s drop backs while keeping the two heading monster of Jones and Charles fed. KC can’t beat elite teams if Cassel has to throw 40+ times.

Why they won’t win it all: The Chiefs haven’t put together a consistent string of strong games all season, and they’ve only beaten one playoff team: the Seattle Seahawks. They beat the Rams and Titans convincingly in weeks 15+16 only to get pummeled by the Raiders in the finale. They were shut-out by the Chargers in week 14 and lost four games by double digits.

Defense looks to be the Chief’s biggest weakness; ranking near the middle of the pack in most statistical categories. They couldn’t seem to touch the Raiders week 17, allowing them to accumulate 209 yards on the ground. That’s a bad sign for Kansas City, a team that needs to control the clock and win on the ground. If they can’t stop the run they will lose the clock battle and Cassel will be forced to throw more. He’s had a terrifically efficient year, but not sure he’s capable of leading a team from behind.

Scariest team to play: Baltimore Ravens

Prediction: Loss in wildcard round

Indianapolis Colts (10-6)

RANKS: OFF. (4th) DEF. (20th) DVOA (15th) OFF. DVOA (6th) DEF. DVOA (24th)

Why they’ll win it all: Peyton Manning has singlehandedly dragged the Colts to the playoffs, passing more times and for more yards than he ever has in his career. Not only is he the quarterback, but he calls the plays, comes up with much of the offensive game plan, and possibly coaches the team depending on how alive Jim Caldwell is feeling. As a direct result of his increased responsibilities he’s thrown more picks than he has since 2001. It’s a miracle Manning’s been able to do what he has without Dallas Clark, Jeff Saturday, Austin Collie and the 17 other injured players I’m forgetting to mention.

With Joseph Addai back from injury the Colt’s running game got a huge shot in the arm. It should take some of the load off Manning and improve the play action that is such as integral part of Indianapolis’s offense. They’ve rushed for over 100 yards in three straight games now…

Why they won’t win it all: The Colts defense is bad, really bad. ESPN analyst Trent Dilfer described it better than anyone. His premise was that for the Colts to stop an aspect of someone’s game their entire defense needs to concentrate on stopping that aspect. For example, to stop the run Indianapolis needs to stack the box…making them vulnerable to the pass and vice-versa. That makes the D easy to expose and easy to accumulate yardage and points against. The stats back it up: Indy has given up 24.2 points a game-23rd in the league. Teams have scored at least thirty points five times, and at least 24 in ten. The offense is good, but good enough to make up for a defense that is among the worst in the NFL?

Scariest team to play: Pittsburgh Steelers

Prediction: Loss in divisional round

New York Jets (11-5)

RANKS: OFF. (11th) DEF. (3rd) DVOA (6th) OFF. DVOA (16th) DEF. DVOA (6th)

Why they’ll win it all: I feel like a broken record at this point, but similar to the Steelers and Ravens, defense is New York’s forte. Compared to last year, though, the unit has taken a step back. Part of it is due to the sheer of difficulty of remaining the best defense in the league two straight years but it also stems from Darrelle Revis not replicating last year’s excellence. Still, the Jets defense remains one of the strongest units in the NFL, holding opponents to 19 ppg and near the top of every defensive statistic.

Mark Sanchez is woefully inconsistent but New York’s running game remains one of the best in the league. They’ve racked up over 2,300 yards-3rd, and a 4.4 average. They rank 5th in the Football Outsider’s rushing DVOA. The Jets need to be able to run effectively and control the clock, thus limiting what Mark Sanchez needs to do. New York has shown the ability to win from behind with Sanchez at the helm—but only against poor teams. They need to avoid a situation in which Mark Sanchez has to bring the team back from behind…he hasn’t shown the ability to do that against playoff caliber teams.

Why they won’t win it all: Not to put my foot in my mouth, but the Jets have a difficult road ahead. It’s a passing league and New York has the second most inconsistent quarterback in the postseason (first, would of course be whoever starts for Seattle). The Jets are one of only three teams in the tournament not starting a pro-bowl quarterback—along with the Ravens and Chiefs. Both Flacco and Cassel are coming off better seasons than Sanchez. If it comes down to Mark needing to lead a fourth quarter comeback against say the Steelers, or Ravens I would be worried.

Scariest team to play: Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots

Prediction: Loss in wildcard round

Postseason Bonanza Part I

Seventeen weeks of football are over. That means three things: 1. you’re spared the sight of me as I limp and claw my way to a .500 record while I attempt, foolishly, to predict the outcomes of a sport that is notoriously hard to predict. 2. We may have just witnessed the last slate of regular season games for twenty months. 3. Instead of reading a 2,000 word column attempting to decipher the weeks’ worth of games, you are treated to 4,000 words trying to make sense of the playoffs. Bonus: a three month reprieve from all things Brett Favre, until, you know, a video clip of Favre in a drunken rage suddenly appears on YouTube…


This will be a multi-part feature analyzing the postseason from every possible angle; giving you the classic 3,000 word Blitzswish columns you have come to love hate. Part I will cover the various strengths/weaknesses of every team that has made the tournament, part II will be a preview of the wildcard round, while part III and beyond is to be decided while I sit in front of my computer screen at 3:00 in the morning.

(A note on statistics used: OFF and DEF is total yards gained (OFF) and total yards given up (DEF). Courteous of ESPN.com. DVOA=total team DVOA. OFF. DVOA=offensive DVOA. DEF. DVOA=defensive DVOA. DVOA statistics courteous of http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff).


NFC

Atlanta Falcons (13-3)

RANKS: OFF. (16th) DEF. (16th) DVOA (8th) OFF. DVOA (10th) DEF. DVOA (12th)

Why they’ll win it all: The Falcons remind me of the Peanut Butter & Jelly Sandwich. Boring, simple-yet efficient, ALWAYS good, and always there for you. Atlanta doesn’t turn the ball over (+14 turnover differential-3rd in the league), doesn’t commit many penalties (least amount of penalties in the league with 58), moves the ball exceedingly well (353 first downs-3rd, number of third downs converted-1st), and has converted an insane 11 of 15 fourth downs. They’re exceedingly efficient, relatively mistake free, and can beat you in a multitude of ways.

The ability to win games in different ways is a key ingredient in the postseason. How many teams over the past decade have won it all while only being exceptional at one phase of the game? Zero. The 2007 Patriots are a perfect example. Tom Brady led a prolific passing attack-the best ever-but the offense had a mediocre rushing attack and the defense was merely average. The Falcons can win games in different ways. They’re running game is led by Michael Turner, 3rd in the NFL with 1,371 yards and a 4.1 average. Matt Ryan is an MVP candidate and finished the year with a 91.0 quarterback rating. Roddy White is arguably the best wide out in the game. John Abraham has 13 sacks and spearheads one of the better pass rushes in the league. You get the idea? Stop Turner, and Matt Ryan is fully capable of throwing the Falcons to victory. Concentrate on stopping their passing attack, and the Michael Turner-led running game will control the clock and pound the defense all game. It’s a multi-faceted attack with few weaknesses-on either side of the ball.

Why they won’t win it all: For all Atlanta’s efficiency, they lack explosiveness and that “wow” factor. Matt Ryan averages 6.49 yards per pass-25th among the top 30 quarterbacks in the league. Their running game averages 3.8 yards per rush and they lack a receiver who averages over 12.3 yards per catch (who has caught more than 25 passes). Defensively, Atlanta has even fewer weaknesses. Similarly to the offense, they do everything well, yet nothing spectacularly. The only soft spot could be rushing defense which is ranked 10th in the league in terms of yardage. They allow a 4.6 yards per rush average, one of the highest marks in the NFL.

That was way too many numbers wasn’t it? Moving on…

Scariest team to play: Philadelphia Eagles

Prediction: Super Bowl appearance

Chicago Bears (11-5)

RANKS: OFF. (30th) DEF. (9th) DVOA (16th) OFF. DVOA (28th) DEF. DVOA (5th)

Why they’ll win it all: Three reasons: Special Teams, defense and Jay Cutler. They’ve got the number one special teams unit according to the football outsiders led by the prolific Devin Hester. Along with a top five defense Chicago thrives by winning the field position battle and managing the opponent’s offense just enough for Jay Cutler to either win or lose the game. About Jay Cutler. Chicago’s defense/special teams are great, but Cutler is the heart of the team. If he performs at a high level, the Bears usually win. If he doesn’t they lose. In seven of Chicago’s eleven wins Cutler’s quarterback rating has been greater than 97.0, with only one performance dipping below 82.0. When Chicago loses it has never gone above 69.0. That’s as telling a statistic as we have about the Chicago Bears. Cutler is fully capable of getting hot and throwing the Bears all the way to the Super Bowl, but he is equally capable of having a patented Cutler four interception implosion.

Why they won’t win it all: The Bears have the worst offensive line in football, and it’s not even close. They have given up 56 sacks all year, six worse than the 31st best offensive line. Cutler’s been hit 92 times-24th in the league. When Cutler has been sacked four or more times the Bears are 3-4, sacked six times or more they’re 0-3.

Chicago also lacks a consistent running game. They average only 3.9 yards per carry and 101 yards per game. Matt Forte is a solid back’, sort of a Brian Westbrook clone. He’s a shifty runner who is great in space and an able pass catcher. But they lack a runningback who can complement Forte. They don’t have someone who can pound away between the tackles and get a key third and one. Because of that hole they convert only 32.8% of their third down attempts. They’ve made only 76 first downs via the ground, which would rank 28th in the league. This lack of a potent ground game has turned the Chicago offense into a one-dimensional attack that can beat you one way-through the air. Because of the Bear’s bad pass protection and Cutler’s occasional poor decision making this can back fire on them. Like I’ve said before, if we get the good Cutler the Bears will be dangerous, otherwise look for an early exit.

Scariest team to play: Atlanta Falcons

Prediction: Loss in divisional round

Green Bay Packers (10-6)

RANKS: OFF. (9th) DEF. (5th) DVOA (3rd) OFF. DVOA (7th) DEF. DVOA (2nd)

Why they’ll win it all: Although Aaron Rodgers is undoubtedly the face of the franchise; Green Bay’s defense is the unit that consistently wins them games. They held the Bears and Giants to 20 points in weeks 16 plus 17. They played the Patriots prolific offense better than anyone during New England’s eight game winning streak and offensive tear. The combination of Charles Woodson and Tramon Williams forms perhaps the best cornerback tandem in the league. B.J Raji is one of the best young defensive linemen in the game and golden-locked Clay Mathews has burst onto the scene with a phenomenal sophomore year. The stats speak for themselves; Green Bay’s defense is capable of containing any offense out there.

And that Aaron Rodgers guy, he’s pretty good too. Despite all the weapons Green Bay has lost (like emerging tight end Jermichael Finley and runningback Ryan Grant) Rodgers still has the offense performing at a high level. The Packers 45-17 thumping of the New York Giants in week 16 showcased their offense at its peak. When Aaron Rodgers is given protection (sacked 38 times-18th in the league) he does things like throw for 400 yards and four touchdowns.

Why they won’t win it all: One injury that Green Bay has struggled with is the loss of halfback Ryan Grant. His replacement, Brandon Jackson, has done little to boost the ground game-posting 703 yards with only a 3.7 per carry average. Remember how I said a team needs to be able to win in a multitude of ways? With the lack of a running game (Packers are ranked 24th in the NFL) Green Bay is forced to pass more than average. Aaron Rodgers is fantastic, but can they make a deep postseason run this way? Recent history says it’s possible. The 2009 Indianapolis Colts reached the Super Bowl with the worst rushing attack in the league. The 2008 Cardinals also reached the Super Bowl with the NFL’s last ranked running game. The team that won the 08’ Super Bowl-the Steelers-had the 23rd ranked ground game. Those squads had one thing in common: a top flight quarterback. Is Aaron Rodgers at the level of Kurt Warner, Peyton Manning, and Ben Roethlisberger? History says he’ll need to be for Green Bay to make a run.

One last Green Bay gripe. They can be maddeningly inconsistent. The squad that put up 45 against the Giants was vastly different than the one that managed only ten against Chicago. Both defenses are comparable, why were the Packers able to obliterate one, but struggled against the other? One good sign to take away from the inconsistency: if their offense struggles the defense is capable of picking up the slack and vice-versa. Both sides of the ball will need to be at their best to make it through the NFC…

Scariest team to play: New Orleans Saints

Prediction: NFC championship appearance, loss to Falcons

Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)

RANKS: OFF. (2nd) DEF. (12th) DVOA (5th) OFF. DVOA (3rd) DEF. DVOA (14th)

Why they’ll win it all: Michael Vick. The entire Eagles squad plays as well as their quarterback does. When Vick is on, he wins games all by himself…and it’s amazing to watch. Because of how dependent the Eagles are on the performance of their quarterback, they are a hard team to figure out. I could see them making it to the Super Bowl if Vick is hot, if not, I see them losing to Green Bay in round one.

This team has weapons. LeSean McCoy is Brian Westbrook 2.0 at the halfback position while DeSean Jackson and Jeremy Maclin are a terrific wide receiver pair. This offense can put up points faster than the 49ers canned Mike Singletary. That’s what makes them such a terrifying team to face…they can lay 21 on the scoreboard in only a few plays. Just ask the Redskins.

Why they won’t win it all: I’ve written this before, but I don’t trust the Eagles because of the style of offense they run. It’s predicated on the big play, and if those bombs to DeSean Jackson aren’t working the offense stalls. This is roughly the 567th time I’ve used this analogy (from Michael Lombardi) but Philadelphia’s offense is akin to an NBA team that relies on the three pointer. When they’re falling it’s terrifying…when they’re not the offense is less than great.

With that said, I have two additional worries. The first concern is health. Vick and Jackson have been beat up all season, and with their slight builds it’s a miracle they have been able to stay upright for as long as they have. Because of the way Vick chooses to play his position, and an average offensive line, I wonder if Vick can make it through a deep postseason run. Did you see him against the Vikings a couple of weeks ago? I don’t care if Vick says he’s 100%, I’m surprised he can even move after the beating he took. I also worry about the state of the defense. Before week 17 the Eagle’s D had given up five straight weeks of 24 or more points. The loss of both Nate Allen and Brandon Graham was a big blow as was the likely career ending injury suffered by DB Ellis Hobbs.

Scariest team to play: Green Bay Packers

Prediction: Loss in wildcard round to the Packers

New Orleans Saints (11-5)

RANKS: OFF. (6th) DEF. (4th) DVOA (10th) OFF. DVOA (11th) DEF. DVOA (9th)

Why they’ll win it all: New Orleans defense has become one of the strongest squads in the league. They’re actually better than last year, jumping five spots in defensive DVOA between this year and last. Much of that is due to the emergence of defensive back Malcolm Jenkins-a true shutdown corner.

Drew Brees once again has the offense at the top of the league. New Orleans receiving core goes four deep, and Brees is a perennial 4,000 yard 68% completion passer. With the depth at every offensive position the Saint’s offense may be the most consistent in the NFC. It goes without saying, but Brees is a masterful quarterback, and he’s proven his acumen under pressure. The Saints ability to run out the clock and close the game against Atlanta was telling…I didn’t think they could do it with the NFL’s 28th best ground attack.

Don’t forget about the Sean Payton factor. I love a coach who is willing to make the ballsy calls that most coaches wouldn’t dare try (onside kick after halftime anyone?). He might be the best in the league at devising offensive game plans—don’t think that won’t be a factor as the Saints prepare to make a second postseason run.

Why they won’t win it all: Brees is as good as they come, but he’s thrown 22 interceptions this season…six games with at least two picks and 12 straight with at least one. Some of it has been poor luck, but Brees has had to force the ball more than last year. His receivers aren’t getting as open like they were during the Super Bowl run. Another problem stems from the running game, which has been depleted by injury. News broke Wednesday that Pierre Thomas would be placed on injured reserve, joining rookie revelation Chris Ivory. Tough break for the Saints who will have to rely on Reggie Bush, Julius Jones, and some guy named DeShawn Wynn. The loss of their two starting runningbacks turns the Saints into a one-dimensional offensive team. Last season they enjoyed the sixth best ground attack—meaning Brees passed 514 times; much less than the 658 times he chucked it this year.

Scariest team to play: Chicago Bears

Prediction: Loss in divisional round

Seattle Seahawks (7-9)

RANKS: OFF. (28th) DEF. (27th) DVOA (30th) OFF. DVOA (29th) DEF. DVOA (29th)

Why they’ll win it all: They won’t. They can’t right? Arguably the worst team to ever make the playoffs gets to host the defending champs in the wildcard round. It’s hard to find anything good to say about the Seahawks, but special teams are somewhere to start. Leon Washington is a dynamic return man leading the third best special team’s squad according to the football outsiders. They’ve returned three kicks back for touchdowns-tied for the most in the NFL. Otherwise, no reason to think Seattle can scare anyone. Except the football gods…

Why they won’t win it all: Where to start? The worst ground game in the league. Bottom third passing game. Their two best quarterbacks are Matt Hasselbeck and Charlie Whitehurst. Imagine if the two best movies in your DVD case are Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre. That’s the Seahawks in a nutshell. They’re great at nothing, andddd not really great at anything either. Consider this, in each of Seattle’s nine defeats they’ve lost by at least fifteen points. When it rains it poor’s--and it does that a lot in Washington…

Scariest team to play: Everybody, including “The Tiny Football League”

Prediction: Loss in wildcard round to the Saints

Week 17 Picks

Welcome to week 17, the strangest Sunday in the NFL. Rarely are teams fighting for playoff spots, instead the hopeless are tanking for better draft positions and the contenders-with nothing to lose-give away the game because, well, they have nothing to lose. The hard part is figuring out which of the playoff-bound squads will throw away the game, and which will actually play hard. Figure that out, and you’re golden.


Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (27-6)

With Atlanta losing to the Saints Monday Night they still have not locked up the number one seed. Thus, this game constitutes a must-win, with a victory netting the Falcons that coveted first round bye. Standing in their way is the 2-13 Carolina Panthers-could they play the role of spoiler? I see one problem: Carolina sucks. There, I said it. No way Atlanta loses with what’s at stake playing against such a mediocre team.

And the lesson, as always: don’t take Jimmy Clausen on the road. Just don’t even think about it.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (20-13)

Pittsburgh is beat up but Cleveland has played three very Cleveland-esque games in a row. Peyton Hillis has dropped off dramatically the past three weeks, and in the process lost thousands of people their fantasy championships (do they have therapy for that?). The Steelers have everything to play for, needing a win to clinch their division. Plus, the Browns have lost the luster of a frisky upset pick. Apparently it doesn’t take that long to figure out a rookie quarterback and halfback who hurdles people and fumbles way too much.

Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions (24-10)

Joe Webb was picked in the sixth round, number 199—so was Tom Brady. Unfortunately that’s where the parallels end. But you have to admit, Webb has looked pretty decent the two games he’s been given a chance. Sort of a Travaris Jackson on steroids. The sad part? He might not even get the start, with a certain attention hogging, grey bearded, penis picture taking quarterback breathing down his neck. It doesn’t matter though; I know exactly how this plays out. Favre starts, throws a couple passes, than gets body-slammed by Ndamukong Suh as Jen Sterger and Deanna Favre excitedly hug and congratulate each other. At least, that’s how it plays out in my mind-stay tuned.

The Lions are going for their fourth win in a row, but they may be just too beat up. They will probably without Calvin Johnson-the wideout that makes their offense tick. It also seems like the Vikings genuinely enjoy Leslie Frazier, which could mean they’ll play hard to try to save his job…

Oakland Raiders @ Kansas City Chiefs (30-17)

A Kansas City victory clinches the #3 seed; a loss possibly drops them to the #4 seed. What would you rather do? Host the Jets and travel to Pittsburgh (3 seed situation) or host Baltimore and travel to New England (4 seed situation)? That’s a pretty massive difference, so expect the Chiefs to go all out in this one. In other news, the Raiders could be the first team in seven centuries to go 6-0 in their division yet not make the playoffs. Only the Raiders, only the Raiders…

Miami Dolphins @ New England Patriots (30-10)

New England’s in the F-you zone, Chad Henne is in the I’m F’ed zone. The Patriots won’t rest their starters until the third-fourth quarter, so expect New England to jump to a comfortable lead for our boy Hoyer to work with. Never underestimate a man fighting for his job-as we saw from Jimmy Clausen two weeks ago-but the Patriots are just too locked in for this Miami squad…

Belichick is all about momentum; don’t expect him to just roll over in front of a division rival.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints (23-13)

Sean Payton has a history of resting his guys week 17, and with nothing to gain with a win (barring a miraculous loss by Atlanta), expect nothing different this time around. Josh Freeman and company can make the postseason with a win and divine intervention, so expect them to go all out as the Saints rest their guys by the third quarter once they realize Atlanta is beating Carolina 96 to 3.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets (24-10)

Rex Ryan essentially confirmed he was resting the majority of his starters against the Bills in his last press conference. And you know what, the Bills aren’t terrible, and I think they’ll want to close the season strong after a hideous defeat to the New England Patriots. In fact, I think Buffalo might be able to beat the Jet’s starters at this point-never mind they’re JV squad.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (21-14)

It’s a sad day for Blitzswish; I can no longer make fun of everyone’s favorite bad quarterback. In the most stunning three hours of the season Palmer threw for 300 yards along with four touchdowns—I also lit my left hand on fire. I hope he doesn’t have a repeat performance; otherwise I will be typing with stumps.

Baltimore isn’t like San Diego; they know what’s at stake (a possible division title) and won’t fold like the Bolts.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans (28-14)

It’s really, really hard for me to pick the Houston Texans under any circumstances. In fact, if there were to be a matchup between the “Tiny Football League” and the Texans, I would probably pick the Texans. But I would have to think about it.

Jacksonville will be playing without its two best players: Maurice Jones-Drew and David Garrard-Trent Edwards is his backup. That’s like going from a filet-mignon dinner to SPAM. We know how the Jags perform without their star halfback, how do you think they’ll look without their quarterback?

New York Giants @ Washington Redskins (34-21)

A defeat to the Rex Grossman led Redskins would finish an excruciating three weeks of Giants football. An improbable defeat against the Eagles capped off by a punt return of all things, a severe beating at the hands of the Packers in which Eli definitely looked like the ugly, stunted brother of the Manning dynasty, then a defeat at the hands of Rex Grossman of all people. Would Giants fans ever recover? It can’t happen, right? The football Gods (and Roger Goodell) would never allow it, right? RIGHT???

Dallas Cowboys @ Philadelphia Eagles (31-27)

Here’s an interesting one. This game is essentially Kevin Kolb’s audition for a starting job next year-you don’t think he’ll take this very seriously? Other key Philadelphia starters besides Vick such as DeSean Jackson and LeSean McCoy will likely sit also, meaning Kolb will be throwing to third and fourth string receivers. On the other side we’ve got Stephen McGee starting at quarterback-who didn’t look half bad against Arizona. I like the Cowboys because they have everything to play for (namely Jason Garrett’s job) while the Eagles have nothing (except a frantic Kevin Kolb trying to pass for 450 yards and four touchdowns).

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers (24-9)

Here’s what we’ve learned this season: under no circumstances can you trust a bad quarterback on the road. At home, maybe, against another bad team-on the road, forget about it. For that reason, and that reason alone I like the 49ers. And by like I mean they’ve killed my picks record all season but why not close the year out in style?

Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers (26-17)

This was set up to be a tremendous game, until Philadelphia decided to lose to the Vikings and destroy the entire NFC playoff picture. Now, Chicago has clinched the division and a first round bye-meaning they have nothing to play for. Green Bay has everything to play for, needing this win to earn a playoff berth. Lovie Smith has been preaching all week that the Bears wouldn’t just roll over in this one, but it would be murder to go all out against a rapid Packers team backed against the wall. And aren’t the Packers too good not to make the playoffs?

Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (38-7)

Ok. So now the Titans have a rookie quarterback named Rusty Smith, an emotionally unstable (to put it lightly) quarterback named Vince Young, and a 37 year old veteran who likes to nail innocent defensive ends sitting on the bench with errant incompletions. The Titans season in a nutshell…the only thing better? If Kerry Collins happened to nail Randy Moss with an errant incompletion as he was rotting away on the bench. If you like the Titans in this one, shame on you. You honestly think Peyton Manning loses this game with a postseason berth on the table? It’s not gonna’ happen…even if there is a special place in hell reserved for Peyton Manning. Which there is, definitely.


San Diego Chargers @ Denver Broncos (27-16)

Since first seeing Tebow start in the NFL I’ve been searching for a comparison that makes sense…he just seems so unique. Well, I finally found it. He’s like Michael Vick (pre dog-fighting indictment) with a slightly weaker arm, but better intangibles. He’s got a throwing motion that doesn’t seem like it should be possible and he’s sneaky, sneaky fast.

This game is near impossible to figure out. The Chargers have been a mystery all season, they’re on pace to be the first team in history to finish .500 while having the number 1# ranked defense and #2 offense. But the biggest mystery of all: How does Norv Turner still have a job? This season’s result has been building up for a long time, every single year his team’s start slow. Only this time there was a team strong enough to overtake the Bolts. At some point, A.J Smith has to realize that for all Norv’s offensive acumen his teams have never done anything.

Why I like the Broncos: Like the rest of the country, I’ve got a bit of a Teboner. How can you not believe in a missionary/stud/hunk quarterback? The Chargers are dead: take it to the bank, lock it down. They’ll fold over easier than the Giants after a DeSean Jackson punt return.

St. Louis Rams @ Seattle Seahawks (23-6)

Have you ever driven by an awful car accident, didn’t want to look, but looked anyway because you were inexplicably drawn to it? That’s what this game is. It’s going to be awful, it will be ugly, and might even involve some broken glass and fire.

Bright-side-that-I’m-not-sure-is-even-bright: We’re spared the sight of Matt Hasselbeck jogging into the endzone then inexplicably injuring his ass in the process. Why it isn’t so bright: His backup is Charlie Whitehurst, affectionately known as the clipboard Jesus. FYI: he sucks.

That Sam Bradford guy? He’s not too bad…

Last Week: 8-7

Overall: 134-89

Lock of the Week: St. Louis Rams OVER Seattle Seahawks

Upset of the Week: Buffalo Bills OVER New York Jets

Pounding of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Carolina Panthers