Wait, am I really picking the Texans to beat the Saints in the Superdome even though Drew Brees has been near perfect through two weeks, and week three was where all of Houston’s dreams were shattered last season? Yes, yes I am. The Texans are gambling in a nutshell. You’re beat up as hell, continuously losing money and close to selling your dog just for one more crack at the blackjack table because this is the time you strike gold. You just KNOW it is. This year, I KNOW the Texans are going to be good.
Please Houston, don’t let me down…
New York Giants -3 @ Philadelphia Eagles
I’d love to take the Giants…if they were healthy. They’re down Domenik Hixon and Mario Manningham—two of Eli’s best weapons. BUT, BUT, the Giants can run the ball (9th in DVOA so far), and can rush the passer (six sacks and 17 quarterback hits). What do we know about the Eagles? They struggle stopping the run and can't protect Michael Vick. I don’t like this pick, but it seems logical.
Jacksonville Jaguars +4 @ Carolina Panthers
Are we overvaluing the Panthers? Their rushing attack—once the strength of the team—is only the 17th best per DVOA, and DeAngelo Williams has gone for 43 yards on 17 attempts. In both games combined. Remember when he ran for 18 touchdowns and over 1,500 yards in 2008? Neither do I…
New England Patriots -9 @ Buffalo Bills
Does Ryan Fitzpatrick piss excellence; do his tears cure cancer; is there any truth to the rumor that Fitzpatrick was a member of Seal Team Six and killed Osama bin Laden with his Harvard diploma? Based on ESPN’s recent coverage of the Bills, it’s a distinct possibility. I’m glad the Bills are ‘back on the map’, but I’m going to be the douche who thinks it stops Sunday. The Raiders put up 35 on the Bills; couldn’t the Pats drop a 50-burger?
Miami Dolphins +1 @ Cleveland Browns
Miami’s ineptitude at home—1-9 at Sun Life Stadium since the beginning of last season—is one of the strangest ongoing streaks in sports. It is virtually unexplainable. But hey, I’ll go with it, especially because the Fish get a tasty road contest against the Browns, a team with less offensive talent than the Florida Marlins.
San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals -2
I hate going with rookie quarterbacks. I hate going with Alex Smith even more. I’ll go with Cincinnati, but both quarterbacks are liable to throw three picks any given Sunday.
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans -6
One of the most intriguing sub-plots this season has been the Titan’s ability to win (ok, it was only against the Ravens, but still) with literally nothing from Chris Johnson. His longest run from scrimmage has been 11 yards and he’s averaging only 2.3 yards per carry. To put that into perspective, in 2009, he had long runs of 32, 91, and 30 yards the first three weeks, respectively. Once a threat to break a big play at any given time, now he looks like Laurence Maroney in the backfield. Considering the Broncos have given up 262 rushing yards the past two weeks, this could be Johnson’s best chance yet to return to his old form.
Detroit Lions -8 @ Minnesota Vikings
I want to pick the Vikings, I really, really do. This is the first elite defense the Lions have faced yet. As PFT points out here, Lion’s left tackle Jeff Backus hasn’t been great, despite Matthew Stafford being sacked all of zero times this young season. Now he has to block Jared Allen, about as touch a matchup as they come, and the interior line will have its hands full with Kevin Williams, who is making his return after a two game suspension.
But then consider Donovan McNabb, who if it wasn’t for Luke McCown would win the ‘most uncomfortable quarterback to watch’ award in a landslide. How can you put any trust into a guy who threw for 39 yards in a game and averaged 2.6 yards per attempt? Memo to the Vikings: this isn’t 1936.
Baltimore Ravens -7 @ St. Louis Rams
Watching the Rams Monday night, I felt completely validated for not slobbering all over them in my preseason predictions. They simply cannot score points, and they were rewarded for not making the postseason in 2010 with a BRUTAL schedule that doesn’t get any better until week nine. The sad part? They could STILL win the NFC West if my Cardinals don’t step it up. Wait, did I just call them ‘my Cardinals’? I need to stop.
New York Jets -4 @ Oakland Raiders
Hugh Jackson is using that Mark Sanchez hotdog-eating incident as motivation for his team? Of course he is, it’s the Raiders. The Jets are better, and because we know nothing about the season yet, I'll ride the stronger team. It gets better, I promise.
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers -13
Michael Floyd is doubtful and Antonio Gates is out, but San Diego could hang 35 on the Chiefs with Fat Albert and Kermit the Frog catching balls.
Arizona Cardinals -2 @ Seattle Seahawks
Kevin Kolb>Tarvaris Jackson. Arizona offense>Seattle offense. Pee Wee football league>Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons +2 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
I’m not entirely sure how the Falcons beat the Eagles. For 50 minutes, Atlanta was borderline pathetic on offense. Remember, though, that Philadelphia’s got the best trio of cornerbacks in the league. Tampa Bay however, does not. I’m banking on Atlanta’s offense having their first big game of the season.
Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ Chicago Bears
Green Bay is the most blitz-happy defense in the league, and Chicago’s offense line is by far the worst around. What am I missing?
Pittsburgh Steelers -13.5 @ Indianapolis Colts
In 2009 the Colts made Donald Brown the 27th pick of the draft, passing over wide receivers Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is coming off a 1000-yard, 11 touchdown season and Kenny Britt amassed over 700 yards and nine touchdowns in only 12 games. In 2007 the Colts drafted the perennially injured Anthony Gonzalez 32nd overall over players like Zack Miller (38), Eric Weddle (37), and Kevin Kolb (36). In 2010, the Colts tabbed Jerry Hughes with the 31st pick. He’s gone on to amass seven tackles in two seasons. It's a good thing they have Peyton Manning...oh, wait.
Washington Redskins +3 @ Dallas Cowboys
As much as I like the Cowboys (a lot), every one of their major skill-position players is either out or questionable. And I sort of, kind of, maybe, possibly believe the Redskins are a quality football team. In other news, Rex Grossman is slowly luring me into a false sense of security. It’s only a matter of time until he throws four picks, loses a fumble, and goes 11-32 in a disastrous loss. I hope it isn’t this week…but since I’m showing faith in the Redskins, it probably will be.
NOTE: Couldn't find a line for this one, so where going to go ahead and pretend the Cowboys were favored.
Upset of the Week: New York Giants OVER Philadelphia Eagles
Pounding of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Indianapolis Colts
Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Last Week: 9-7
Overall: 17-15
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