A Truly Epic NFL Preview--Part I

Thanks Roger and DeMaurice for giving me a chance to write about the NFL again, even if I kind of hated you for four months. You were right; we did all come back fast! Let’s make this the last mention of the NFL lockout ever, OK? Is that a deal?

Also, I’m a huge fan of the Football Outsiders and their work with advanced football statistics. Unless I say otherwise, I take my stats exclusively from the Football Outsiders. In short, they’re way, way more accurate and informative than anything you can get on ESPN or from the NFL. I urge you to click HERE, and check out their work. To learn more about DVOA, their basic stat, click HERE.


A lot of people go through life thinking they know everything. This is especially true in the field of sports analysis where talking heads and “experts” bloviate endlessly over the most miniscule minutiae. Any sports fan understands this and the truly enlightened among us realize we know nothing. NOTHING. I might think the Patriots will have a successful season, but I’m as confident in this assertion as I am that Phil Simms will receive the Rozelle Award. Ok, I’m probably a little more confident in my beloved Patriots than Simms winning the NFL’s most prestigious broadcasting award, but my point stands. The National Football League is the definition of insanity, and that’s 90 percent of the league’s success in a nutshell. It’s impossible to predict. Crazy shit happens. There’s an Arian Foster and Brandon Lloyd every year.

So with that out of the way, welcome to my first annual Mega-NFL Preview! I hope you’ve come with an open mind, because that’s the first ingredient required to have a successful and healthy viewing experience. The second is faith, because Super Bowl winners rarely (by rarely I mean never) look like bonifide contenders the entire season. And if they do, something inevitably goes horribly, horribly wrong. 2007 Patriots, I’m looking at you. So do your research, pick your favorites, and stick to your guns regardless of the wild, capricious ride that is the regular season. If you’re constantly reevaluating your choices and adapting to the ever-changing NFL landscape you will not only end up favoring two-thirds of the NFL at various points, but you’ll drive yourself insane. Trust me, I’ve been there, done that.

Three massively important theories to live by:

1) It’s hard to win 12+ games in the NFL. Going back to 2002, only the Colts, Patriots, and Eagles have had back-to-back 12+ win seasons. In the past three seasons it’s only happened once—by the 08’-09’ Colts, in the last year of their incredible streak of five seasons with at least twelve victories.

In short, expect 12+ win teams to take a step back rather than improve on their win totals. It doesn’t necessarily mean they’re less talented, but Super Bowl hangovers, harder schedules, and better divisions are always likely culprits.

2) The NFC East beats the hell out of each other. Not counting the Redskins, who are on a prolonged streak of suckiness, here’s the records of the top three teams over the past five seasons:

2010: 10-6, 10-6, 6-10

2009: 11-5, 11-5, 8-8

2008: 12-4, 9-6-1, 9-7

2007: 13-3, 10-6, 9-7

2006: 10-6, 9-7, 8-8

And another fun little fact: Over the past five seasons no team has gone a perfect 6-0 within the division and 5-1 was reached only once, by the 2006 Eagles.

I could keep going, but suffice to say rarely does an NFC East squad truly separate itself from competition within its own division. So if you expect the Eagles to run rampant, you may want to reevaluate your reasoning. History tells us otherwise.

3) There will be sleepers. It may seem painfully obvious, but it’s worth repeating. It’s easy to look back at last year’s standings and fall in love with 2010’s great squads but realize that going back to 1996 at least five teams that made the playoffs one year were left behind the next. Expect the unexpected!

Here are teams that have lost five or more games than they did the previous season over the past five years:

2010: Cowboys (-5), Vikings (-6), Cardinals (-6), Bengals (-6)

2009: Titans (-5)

2008: Packers (-7), Seahawks (-6), Patriots (-5), Browns (-6), Jaguars (-6)

2007: Bears (-6), Jets (-6), Ravens (-8)

2006: Redskins (-5), Buccaneers (-7)

Keep those fun facts in mind as we delve into the coming season…

THE RISERS

These are teams I believe will show marked improvement from last year, and have a chance to do damage in the postseason. Risers can’t have made the playoffs last year and will have to win three more games than they did the previous season to qualify. Here they are, in no particular order, followed by my SUPER SLEEPER, which you will learn more about soon enough…

DETROIT LIONS (6-10)*



I’ve been trying incredibly hard to NOT buy into all the hype surrounding the Lions. Remember the Texans last year or the Falcons from the season before? Occasionally, the weight of expectations is simply too heavy. And the Lions for once actually have some hope, and hope in the sports world always equates to increased expectations.

It’s hard not to like Detroit, with the preseason Quarterback Matt Stafford has enjoyed and the promising beginning to the 2010 season that ended way prematurely due to injury. Stafford nearly led his Lions past the 5-2 Jets with 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions before being taken out with a separated shoulder that landed him on the PUP list. That’s quite a performance against the seventh best pass defense of 2010. And in four preseason games this season Stafford has thrown for 395 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. It’s only the preseason, but all available signs point to a BIG 2011 for Stafford—you know, assuming he isn’t injured for the third straight season. And that’s the first big if.

The second one? The secondary. Thanks largely to Ndamukong Suh and Detroit’s vastly improved defensive line, they ranked 19th in pass defense. Because the Lions did virtually nothing to improve their secondary during the offseason, Detroit’s defensive backfield will likely continue to be a liability. Suh, Vanden-Bosh, and Fairley will blow through offensive lines all season but they’ll struggle against teams with solid lines and a quarterback who can quickly get rid of the ball and attack the secondary.

The Bottom Line: Assuming Matt Stafford isn’t the Greg Oden of football (minus dong shots), there’s no reason NOT to think he’ll finish the year amongst the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. At the risk of sounding like John Gruden, this guy’s got all the tools. He’s a bad, bad man. But the secondary is a problem, and with the Packers likely taking the division Detroit will need to nab a wildcard spot. That means they’ll need to beat out teams from the NFC South (Saints and Falcons) and NFC East (Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants). It’s certainly not out of the question, but I think the Lions need another year…

DALLAS COWBOYS (6-10)*



Wade Phillips is gone. Breathe easy Cowboys fans, and remember that the always apathetic, sleepy, and slightly confused Phillips has gone to torment some other team from Texas on the sidelines. Once Jason Garrett started to call the real plays, the Cowboys averaged 29 points a game over their last eight games last season. And that was with John Kitna at the helm. Without Dez Bryant. With an overweight and ineffectual Felix Jones. Just check my fantasy teams and you’ll see what I think of Dallas’ offense now that it’s healthy. It’s gonna be good—crazy good.

But it’s going to have to be prolific because the Cowboys didn’t do much of anything to improve the 28th best pass defense in the NFL. The Boys’ were this close to landing Nnamdi and solidifying their defensive backfield with a true shutdown corner, but alas, he was the one who got away. And oh, how they need him. According to the Football Outsider’s cornerback charting stats Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman—Dallas’ two starting corners—were amongst the worst in the league in 2010. Jenkins was fantastic in 2009 (19 pass deflections and five interceptions) but was visibly terrible last season and rumor has it that the Cowboys were close to cutting Newman before they lost the Nnamdi sweepstakes.

The bottom line: The whole “I’ll just score more points than you can keep up with” philosophy never really works. The most prolific offenses of the past decade, the 1999 Rams, 2001 Rams, 2007 Patriots were all complemented by some of the best defenses in the league with the first, eighth, and 17th ranked defenses respectively (the Pats had the 5th best pass defense in 2007). That means Mike Jenkins may be the key to the Cowboy’s Super Bowl hopes. In 2009, when Jenkins made the Pro Bowl, Dallas rode the 12th best defense along with a high-powered offense to a playoff berth. If he can play at a pro bowl level once again, Dallas’ fearsome pass rush should be enough to at least improve the defense to league average. Coupled with what I see as the best offense in the NFL, the Cowboys will return to prominence.

But damn, imagine if they got Nnamdi…

HOUSTON TEXANS (6-10)*

I know, I know, we go through this every year. Every season it seems like it’s their time. The Texans are so loaded we wait and wait for them to overtake the Colts. Two things seem to stand in their way: Peyton Manning and an inability to close the deal. Toughness has always seemed like a huge cliché in the NFL to me; meaningless jargon “football men” use to inspire their own team and taunt the opposition.



It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what Houston’s problem is. Their team seems to be cleverly constructed and at the most important position in football—quarterback—the Texans are set. The Colts are perennial contenders but they’ve left the door open ever so slightly these past two seasons. This year, it’s been blown wide open. During the offseason Houston pinpointed their most obvious weakness (pass defense) and signed Jonathan Joseph, one of the best young cornerbacks in football. They’re all in—no excuses. If the Texans can’t capitalize on the Manning-less Colts than Kubiak is gone and the team needs an overhaul.

That’s why I keep going back to this toughness thing. Houston has blue-chip level pieces at nearly every position. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Owen Daniels, Mario Williams; that’s a fantasy dream team. Watching the Texans lose to the Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Titans—five teams with a combined record of 32-48—was truly pathetic. Even more so after all the “they’ve arrived” stories we were treated to after a 2-0 start and a convincing victory over the Colts. But predictably, they crashed hard and fast; so fast in fact that they were out of the playoff race by week 10. Good teams—dare I say tough teams—take care of business against lesser opposition. This year, the Texans need to put their money where their mouth is.

The bottom line: Bill Simmons wrote this in his 2010 season preview regarding the Colts:

“Don't be a hero. Let them tell us when they're done. Then, and only then, can you start picking against them.”

I couldn’t agree more, but the hard part is figuring out just when they’re done. Simmons says we should wait until they tell us; well, isn’t Peyton Manning’s ongoing neck-saga the latest and most damning omen yet that the Colts will miss the playoffs for the first time in 83 years (all numbers approximate)? More on the Colts later, but if they truly are on the down-turn like I believe that means someone in the AFC South has to capitalize. I doubt it’s the Jaguars, who didn’t use the offseason to dramatically improve and are working in a rookie quarterback around a declining veteran. The Titans are a semi-hip sleeper pick, but remember that Matt Hasselbeck is their starting quarterback. Also note that Hasselbeck hasn’t been good for four years. The only logical choice is the Texans. They’re loaded, they addressed their biggest weaknesses over the offseason, and they’ve got a quarterback in the prime of his career. The Gary Kubiak-Wade Phillips combo has the chance to be devastating in the worst way possible, but the Colts made the Super Bowl two years ago with a manikin for a coach, so there.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (9-7)*

As I’m sure you’re tired of reading by now, the Chargers finished last year as the number one ranked offense and defense. Even by the Football Outsiders more accurate advanced metrics the Chargers finished the season ranked fourth and seventh, respectively. As I’m sure you’ve also heard, San Diego had one of the worst special teams units in history, which included allowing four kick return touchdowns, four punts blocked (one deflected), and a laundry list of injured or ineffectual long-snappers. In short, they were not only historically terrible, but also un-lucky. Regardless of how San Diego’s revamped special teams unit performs expect a return to the mean. Allowing four return touchdowns and four blocked punts goes beyond skill. It’s like getting struck by lightning—twice.

As good as San Diego’s offense was last year, they were without wideout Vincent Jackson for 11 games, number two receiver Malcom Floyd for five, and Antonio Gates for six. There were games when Philip Rivers was without his three most dangerous pass catchers—yet he still managed to lead the league with over 4,700 passing yards. Simply put, using virtually every metric available the Chargers were a playoff caliber team, even with all the injuries on offense.

The bottom line:

Consider the following:

-Of the Charger’s seven losses last season five were be eight points or less (two were by field goals) and five were against teams that finished the year with losing records. They lost to the Cincinnati Bengal’s by 14 points and the Oakland Raider’s by 15.

-After losing to eventual division champion Kansas City 21-14 in a Monsoon week one, San Diego crushed them 31-0 in week 14, when the division was very much up for grabs.

-At least, AT LEAST two games were decided by special teams and it’s not even an argument. In week three the Seahawks won 27-20 on the back of two (yes, two) kicks returned for touchdowns. Then, in week five the Raiders won 35-27 after blocking two punts that led to a safety and a long touchdown drive.

-San Diego was swept by the Raiders. Heading into the season the Raiders were riding a 13 game losing streak to the Bolts.

Make San Diego’s special team’s unit average and they’re 11-5 (at least). Make Jackson, Floyd, and Gates (who was enjoying his best season to date before his injury) healthy and who knows what happens? Now factor in sophomore running back Ryan Mathew’s effective preseason and a possible resurgence of the running game and it’s hard not to get a hard-on for the Chargers—just like we do every year.

*Those are last year’s records

SUPER SLEEPER
It's that time you've all been waiting for, AREN'T YOU EXCITED!?!? Before I delve into who I like as my sleeper, remember that a sleeper has to be a team that people aren’t talking about. That means the Lions, Chargers, and Cowboys are out—even if they missed the playoffs last year and finished with losing records. A true sleeper team is one people don’t see coming—think 2008 Cardinals, 2010 Seahawks, or 2009 Jets.

For my 2011 season Super Sleeper I first looked hard at the Vikings. Adrian Peterson isn’t just good, he’s historically great. Hyperbole much, you say? Last season he became the fifth fastest player ever to reach 5,000 rushing yards and his average of 97 rushing yards per game is third behind Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. It’s a passing league as the saying goes, but anytime you’ve got a back’ on a historically good tear you deserve my wandering attention. Minnesota was weighed down by its poo-poo platter of quarterback play, so they traded for Donovan McNabb as a short-term answer. McNabb was only average last season, but he was a Redskin. And he didn’t have a back’ like Peterson (has he ever?), or a receiver the caliber of Percy Harvin.

But unfortunately they’re stuck in a division with last year’s champion, the rising Detroit Lions, and the NFC runners-up. They would have to grab a wild-card spot and I just don’t see them beating out anyone from the NFC East or NFC South to get it.

I thought about the Titans but then I remembered that Hasselbeck hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2007, and since then he’s thrown more interceptions then touchdown passes. The Redskins are an interesting team, but again, their options at quarterback are light to put it nicely. Truthfully, I trust Rex Grossman and John Beck less than I would count on Rob Ryan to keep his mouth shut.

That leaves me with the Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers—the tattered mess that comprises the NFC West (I’m not even counting the Seahawks, not because they made the postseason last year, but because of Tarvaris Jackson). St. Louis is an exciting team, with the gallant Sam Bradford coming off a promising rookie campaign and the acquisition of a couple more offensive weapons. With Josh McDaniel’s in the fold (who has improved every offense he’s worked on) and the possibly very dangerous defensive pairing of defensive ends Chris Long and rookie Robert Quinn St. Louis has serious potential. But they’re young, inexperienced, and were unfortunate enough to land a difficult schedule. Their division might be the worst in the league, but amongst their other ten opponents they have to play the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Packers, Cowboys, Saints, and Steelers. That’s a murderer’s row of opponents including three consecutive weeks against Super Bowl caliber teams. With the first eight weeks of the season against the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Redskins, Packers, Cowboys, Saints and Cardinals respectively, a 2-8 start or worse is very possible. San Francisco is always interesting but then remember Alex Smith. Got it? Good.



This leaves us with the Arizona Cardinals—my 2011 Super Sleeper pick. Let’s start off with the basics; they’re in the worst division in football. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL, as the combined winning percentage of their opponents is a paltry .441. That’s .16 percentage points worse than the next easiest schedule. Not only do they enjoy six games against their own division but they get to play the Panthers, Redskins, Vikings, Browns, and Bengals. Their only games against solid contenders are home against the Steelers off of the bye week, home against the Cowboys, and a road contest against the Eagles. A 3-0 start and a 4-0 finish are reasonable assumptions as they begin the year against the Panthers, Redskins, and Seahawks and finish it off against the 49er’s, Browns, Bengals, and Seahawks.

Furthermore, why couldn’t this team be half-decent with Kevin Kolb at the helm instead of Derek Anderson and that Max Hall guy? I have no reasonable explanation for Kolb’s struggles last year, but he’s had a solid preseason and by all accounts was “everything the Cardinals hoped for” in training camp. He’s got Larry Fitzgerald, an average running game, and what has been an above-average offensive line as recently as 2009—when Kurt Warner was quarterback.

And that right there is the crux of my argument. Arizona’s quarterback play was so incredibly bad last season that it skewed the entire team downward. According to the Football Outsider’s Arizona’s passing attack was the worst in the NFL last season. Dig into the stats a little bit, and they’re truly horrifying. Arizona’s quarterbacks combined (all four that started at various points) to throw for 3,264 yards, complete 50.8 percent of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, and threw 10 touchdowns to 19 interceptions. Poor Max Hall managed only a 35.7 Quarterback rating through six games. Derek Anderson gave us one of the all-time great post-game press conferences. It was a massive cluster-f***. If Kevin Kolb can bring some stability (I think he can) and put up average numbers (let’s say 3,500 yards, 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions) why couldn’t the Cardinals capitalize on their schedule and ride an 11-5 record to a quick out in the postseason?

Join me tomorrow for my Decliners, playoff predictions, and who I like for the Super Bowl. Hopefully I can Peter King it, but chances are my Super Bowl pick will be horribly, horribly wrong. Until next time…