Also, I’m a huge fan of the Football Outsiders and their work with advanced football statistics. Unless I say otherwise, I take my stats exclusively from the Football Outsiders. In short, they’re way, way more accurate and informative than anything you can get on ESPN or from the NFL. I urge you to click HERE, and check out their work. To learn more about DVOA, their basic stat, click HERE.
THE DECLINERS
Here are teams I believe will be noticeably worse than last year. There will be non-playoff teams from last season that actually get worse, but that’s way too depressing and unimportant. Here I’m just covering playoff teams that will decline. NOTE: this doesn’t necessarily mean they will miss the postseason; just that they will be worse. CHICAGO BEARS (11-5)*
It was hard to like the Bears in 2010 and it’s even harder to like them in 2011. Dig into the stats and you’ll like them even less. Consider their offensive line and we might as well just move on.
Chicago’s line play was obviously horrific, so to fix it they drafted a right tackle and cut their best lineman in center Olin Kreutz. Then, to “improve” the 28th best pass offense of 2010 the Bears traded tight end Greg Olsen and grabbed Roy Williams off of the scrap heap. Williams hasn’t caught more than 40 balls once in four years and has failed spectacularly wherever he’s played. And reports indicate that’s it’s not going well in Chicago.
Now factor in the new kickoff rules and it looks like Chicago’s greatest weapon will be at least partially eliminated. According to Football Outsiders Chicago had the best special teams unit of 2010 and the threat of a Devin Hester run back is probably Chicago’s greatest strength. With kickoffs moved to the 35 it shouldn’t be a factor. Their second greatest strength is the sixth best defense in the NFL. Unfortunately, their best defensive players—Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs—are all 30 years or older.
The bottom line: Chicago’s offense will continue to be amongst the worst in the league, their defense is another year older (though it should still be good), and their greatest strength was virtually eliminated from the game. A few writers way more “in the know” than myself are drinking the Kool-Aid about the Bear’s improved offensive line, but it’s really, really hard to imagine them making a huge jump this season; especially considering the amount of inexperience and the type of pass rushers they face in the NFC North.
Now that Green Bay is healthy and primed to win a lot of regular season games and Detroit is semi-respectable, it’s hard to envision Chicago making the playoffs for a second year in a row—or even get to .500.
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6)*
The Manning face! I couldn't resist...
Look, everyone outside of Indiana is chomping at the bit to knock Indianapolis off its high horse. They’ve been good for an unnaturally long time. Remember those numbers I presented in part one about how rare it’s been over the past five years for teams to have back-to-back 12+ win seasons? The Colts are the big exception. They’ve been grabbing high playoff seeds over the past decade like it’s easy.
Last season it was hip to pick the Texans over the Colts. Everyone who jumped on the bandwagon looked smart after the Texans won two in a row, but then Peyton Manning threw for 4,700 yards, coached the team, coached the offense, cooked team meals, drove the bus, flew the plane, and convinced Gary Kubiak to throw the season. So here we are in 2011, possibly falling into the same trap, bemoaning the Colt’s talent level, and doubting Peyton Manning’s ability to play.
But doesn’t it set up so perfectly? Manning is officially doubtful (UPDATE: He’s officially out) for week one and his status is rather shaky beyond that. The Colt’s talent level besides Manning has been weak for years, and Houston seems like the better all-around team.
The bottom line: Indianapolis has to travel to Houston for week one; a game that will surely not feature Peyton Manning. It hasn’t happened yet, but I think this is the year injury, a trilogy of sucktastic drafts, and a sub-par collection of talent finally catches up to the Colts. Believe me, it’s as difficult as ever to pick against the Colts, but unless you think old greybeard Kerry Collins has it in him to run the Colts offense after two weeks of practice, than be my guest.
BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4)*
The hardest team to read. They’re inscrutable. Here’s what we know:
-Ed Reed is an all-timer. He had eight picks and 16 pass deflections in ten games last season. Ten games. No other player in the league except Troy Polamalu can give you that sort of production in a full season! A full 16 games of Reed is bigger than most people realize…
-Joe Flacco had his best year yet in 2010, but the offense declined from 8th to 12th in DVOA. Baltimore attempted to solidify their receiving group with Lee Evans, but he hasn’t produced in three years and he was in a walking boot as recently as last week. Without him Flacco’s got Anquan Boldin (who had his worst season since 2004), Ray Rice out of the backfield, and, and…some other wideouts I guarantee you can’t name.
-MAJOR questions along the offensive line. Michael Oher is back at right tackle after originally playing the blindside in high school and college, switching to the right side his rookie season, then going back to the left last year. Unfortunately it’s not because he’s known for his versatility, rather his play protecting Joe Flacco’s blindside was so ugly last season that he failed to solidify himself as a franchise left tackle. Instead, free agent Bryant McKinnie—who was cut by the Vikings—will play left tackle. Anytime you can start a guy who was cut by a mediocre 6-10 team and plug him in at one of the most important positions in football you’ve got to do it.
The bottom line: It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Ravens nab a wildcard spot, but I don’t see them even sniffing 12 wins again. They’ve got questions along the offensive line, amongst the receiving group, in the secondary, and in generating a pass rush. That’s a lot of questions.
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-5)*
The sexy regression pick. Everyone and their mother think the Chiefs will crash back down to earth after a 2010 playoff berth.
Two reasons why they’ll be fantastically mediocre this season:
-The Chiefs got hit with the third hardest schedule in the league. Not only that, but the Chiefs went 2-4 in the AFC West during a down year in which no other team got past nine wins. This year, with a budding juggernaut in San Diego, a revamped squad in Denver and an always feisty team in Oakland, Kansas City could have an even worse division record.
-Matt Cassel threw an interception on only 1.6 percent of his passes. Read that again. That’s close to 2010 Tom Brady’s equally unsustainable .81 percent interception rate, and Brady is a hall of fame quarterback. Considering the slate of pass defenses Cassel faced in 2010 (11 in the bottom half of the league and 7 ranked 25th or worse) it’s reasonable to assume Cassel will take a step back.
The bottom line: I’ll wear a Lakers jersey for a week if the Chiefs win the division for a second year in a row. How badly Cassel regresses is the question that will determine the Chief’s fate. If he regresses back to his 2009 numbers (his first year as a Chief)—2,924 yards, 16 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a 69.9 quarterback rating—than it will be a long year in Kansas City.
*Those are last year’s records
So far we’ve covered teams on the rise and teams on the decline. Now we’ll get into my misguided predictions on Super Bowl contenders, playoff participants, and who will represent in the Super Bowl. Caveats apply…
THE FAVORITES
New England Patriots
After taking a slight step back in 2010, New England’s defense should be better in 2011. If even one of their 76 new defensive lineman can make a significant impact expect a big jump. With Leigh Bodden returning after missing all of 2010, and with the addition of rookie Ras-I-Dowling the Patriot’s secondary looks to also improve. With Belichick switching to a 4-3 as his base defense and using middle linebacker Jerod Mayo in a more aggressive role the unit could have a whole new look. If the unit can break into the top ten the Patriots could be the best team in the league.
New Orleans Saints
New Orleans made a ton of solid personnel decisions over the offseason and kept the core of their veteran team together in a year where the most veteran squads might have an advantage thanks to continuity. By his own standard set the past four years Drew Brees was not very good in 2010. He threw 22 interceptions (his highest total ever) and his YPA (yards per attempt) was only 7.02—well, well below the 8.54 number he posted during the Super Bowl winning year. Furthermore, Brees threw the ball 658 times—144 more passes than he threw in 2009—when the Saints featured a more balanced offense (5th in pass DVOA and first in rushing DVOA). In 2010 the Saints rushing attack plummeted to 25th overall and their offense went from the second ranked to the 11th. With Mark Ingram on board and the backfield as a whole finally healthy expect a massive improvement on the ground, leading to a more balanced offense and less of a burden on Brees’ right arm.
San Diego Chargers
I wrote a lot about them in Part I (click HERE), but suffice to say I LOVE the Chargers. They’re healthy, Ryan Mathew’s looks better; first round pick Corey Liuget looks super legit, and their special teams woes are so 2010. The only thing holding me back from crowning them the inevitable champions is their history of playoff flops under Norv Turner. On second thought, let’s just move on before I change my mind…
Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers
I’m lumping these two together because they’re both eligible “Super Bowl Hangover” candidates. Green Bay looks primed to be the first repeat champion since the 03’-04’ Patriots. It’s difficult to imagine how they even won the championship with the injuries they sustained throughout the season. Jermichael Finley’s return is gigantic, as he’s one of the four or five best tight ends in the league. Considering how prolific Green Bay’s offense was last year, imagine what it will look like with a pro-bowl caliber tight end in the lineup.
Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs every season after they’ve played in the Super Bowl this decade, but top to bottom their roster looks solid. Football Outsiders DVOA projection system thinks Pittsburgh will hover somewhere around 13 wins when the regular season is finished. That should give you an indication of what Pittsburgh’s roster looks like. Factor in Mike Wallace’s inevitable assent to top-5 wide receiver status and a full 16 games of Roethlisberger and the Steelers look as good, or better than in 2010. The only questions remaining are the aging defense, ramshackle offensive line (didn’t stop them last year), and the threat of the ever present Super Bowl hangover.
Philadelphia Eagles
Their offensive line is a mess. Casey Mathews looks completely overwhelmed as the mike linebacker. Michael Vick looked frustrated all preseason. The defense hasn’t quite clicked. For all the talent they’ve assembled, the Eagles look like they really could have used the entire offensive program to assimilate their new players. Factor in their tough opening schedule (at St. Louis, at Atlanta, vs. New York Giants, vs. San Francisco) and a 2-2 start or worse is a real possibility. Furthermore, I’m worried that Vick will regress in 2011. After avoiding interceptions for the first seven games of 2010, Vick threw a pick in six straight games—including one against Green Bay in the playoffs that ended his season. He seemed to return to his old self at times down the stretch and was banged up all season.
That sounds horribly pessimistic, but then I look at Philadelphia’s talent laden roster and I have to pick my jaw up off the floor. Their crop of cornerbacks is easily tops in the league and their offense is causing spontaneous orgasms in fantasy players everywhere. Perhaps the biggest storyline of the season will be how long it takes for the Eagles new collection of talent to “click”. It’s been every columnist’s narrative of choice throughout the preseason, but there really are some scary parallels between the Eagles and 2010 Miami Heat. Team building is hard in the NFL; we’ll see how it works out…
SUPER BOWL PICK
San Diego Chargers OVER Green Bay Packers
Look for my Thursday night picks on Twitter (@Owens992), my weekly picks column every Friday (or Saturday if I am feeling irrationally lazy), and for my “The Morning After” weekend review every Tuesday. I hope you’re as excited as I am for Andy Dalton interceptions, more Gus Johnson, the Gary Kubiak-Wade Phillips combo of ultimate apathy, and at least 93 columnists drawing parallels between the Heat and Eagles. To paraphrase Bart Scott, CAN’T WAIT!
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