Here’s the key to week two: don’t overreact to anything that happened in week one. Don’t bury the Steelers if you really like them just because they played the sloppiest game of their collective lives against a hungry division rival. You can’t really glean anything useful until week four. With that in mind, here are my week two picks…
Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions -8
I thought the Chiefs would be bad, but not losing by 34 to a non-contender bad. Consider how Kansas City Coach Todd Haley decided to rest his starters throughout the preseason and reportedly did nothing but conditioning drills through training camp, and I guess it’s not really a surprise that they lost handily to the Bills. Now that safety Eric Berry is done for the year, how can anyone expect the Chiefs to walk into Detroit and beat the Lions?
Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills -2.5
Did you know that Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard?! According to the always reliable Wikipedia, Fitzpatrick finished in the top one percent of his high school class and was named the 5th smartest professional athlete by Sporting News. I don’t know what this means, but I sure am tired of ESPN stuffing this information down our throats.
In other news, Oakland’s top two wideouts are out and Jason Campbell is still the Quarterback. Oakland might actually throw it less than they did against Denver. Buffalo owned last year’s 31st ranked run defense, and they’ll need to show improvement against the Raiders or else Darren McFadden will make a lot of fantasy owners VERY happy.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 @ Minnesota Vikings
This game is like throwing crap against the wall—of course that’s pretty much what Donovan McNabb did last week against the Chargers. It’s almost hard to throw for only 39 yards in today’s NFL. Last Sunday, 14 quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards and four threw for over 400. Essentially, McNabb was outplayed by Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Rex Grossman, and Kevin Kolb. Until McNabb shows any signs of life I simply can’t trust the Vikings.
Chicago Bears +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints
Are we sure the Saints can play defense anymore? Drew Brees could make a quadriplegic monkey look competent at wide receiver but surely the offense will suffer without Marques Colston, New Orleans top wideout. Chicago probably won’t get a defensive score and two other turnovers again, but the way the Saints defense looked last weekend even Donovan McNabb could pose as Tom Brady.
Baltimore Ravens -6 @ Tennessee Titans
If the Titans—or one of my fantasy teams—have a hope this season, they need better than 24 yards on nine carries from Chris Johnson. On the bright side, Matt Hasselbeck looked decent throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns. He threw a duck to lose the game and it was against the Jaguars, but that was as promising a start as you could hope for. But the Ravens dominated what many perceived to be the best team in the NFL, and until they show us otherwise, I’m riding the Ravens. To where, who knows.
Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts +1.5
What do you think Peyton Manning did while the Colts were getting massacred by the Texans? Is his expression a permanent ‘Manning face’ at this point? I’ll go with the Colts only because Cleveland looked so deplorable against the Bengals.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets -9
I don’t have to write anything for this one, do I? It’s Luke McCown vs. the Jets defense! It’s a wide receiver who no one has ever heard of trash-talking Darrelle Revis! What could possibly go wrong?
Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers -13
Angry Mike Tomlin press conferences are terrifying. Angry Mike Tomlin in the locker room must be crap-your-pants scary. Most coaches are either belligerent and short on patience after losses (think Todd Haley) or quiet and steaming (Bill Belichick). Tomlin is neither, he’s more crazy guy, ‘I’ll start throwing chairs at people’ angry. Those are the guys I’m most afraid of. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tomlin gorilla-glued a football to Roethlisberger’s hand this week after he was responsible for five of Pittsburgh’s seven turnovers. In short, expect the Steelers to annihilate the Seahawks—not just to save their season—but because of crazy guy Mike Tomlin.
Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Washington Redskins
STAY AWAY FROM THIS GAME. I’m all caught up in Cardinal-mania (if there is such a thing), but we really don’t know how good either of these teams are. That’s the thing about week one—Arizona may have looked brilliant because they played the Panthers and Washington may have gotten their one good Grossman game of the year. Speaking of Rex, recall these stats I presented HERE regarding his famed inconsistency.
Consider yourself warned…
Green Bay Packers -12 @ Carolina Panthers
I’ve got absolutely nothing against Cam Newton but I can’t wait until his inevitable collapse against the Packer’s defense just so I don’t have to hear about how ‘magical’ his week one performance was. And believe me, this is probably the most difficult matchup Cam could ask for. Dom Capers is known for his complicated zone blitz schemes, and Newton is not necessarily known for dissecting defenses with the precision of a surgeon.
Dallas Cowboys -6 @ San Francisco 49ers
Tony Romo’s interception to essentially seal Dallas’ fate Sunday night was comically bad (I read it the whole way), but let’s all remember that San Francisco needed two moments of Ted Ginn brilliance to win. Against the Seahawks. Despite THREE Seattle turnovers and ELEVEN penalties. Alex Smith threw for only 120 yards, and according to the Football Outsiders, Frank Gore had the worst rushing performance of the week.
Here’s what I’m taking way too long to get at: Dallas is good but choked in miserable fashion and San Francisco is worse than mediocre because they needed a duo of incredible special team’s plays to eke out a victory against possibly the league’s worst team.
San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots -3
Two nights ago I dreamt that Tom Brady threw for 731 yards against the Chargers. I swear on the life of my unborn children that this was an actual dream I had. I remember nothing else besides cracking open the newspaper (which I NEVER do), checking the box score, and nearly feinting after seeing the passing total. I don’t know what’s stranger: the fact that I dream about Tom Brady, that I read the newspaper to check stats, or that somewhere in my brain I believe it’s even possible for an NFL quarterback to throw for 700+ yards. But that puts into perspective the kind of night Brady had. The bottom line: I’m riding Brady until he stumbles. Period. The end.
Houston Texans -5 @ Miami Dolphins
Would I be surprised if Houston lost by 20 to the Dolphins? Only mildly, because it’s the Texans and the Wade Philips-Gary Kubiak combo is terrifying.
Tom Brady’s virtuoso evisceration of Miami’s defense Monday night may have us under-valuing the fish, but Houston’s elite offense should also be able to do naughty things to the Dolphins.
Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 @ Denver Broncos
Denver could quite possibly be facing Cincinnati without their three best players: Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, and Brandon Lloyd. Cedric Benson is no Darren McFadden, but Oakland did amass 190 yards on the ground against the putrid Denver defense. Here’s what the Bengals can do reasonably well: run the ball, play defense, and play physical football. Putting any sort of trust in Andy Dalton on the road is only terrifying until you realize Kyle Orton will be playing with Tim Tebow chants ringing in his ears. Poor guy.
Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons +2.5
Upset pick of the week! Atlanta’s defeat looked much more like a product of sloppiness and bad luck last week than an actual regression.
Remember how Stephen Jackson gashed the Eagles on a 40-yard touchdown run the first play of the game week one? The point is: that run defense looks soft. If Atlanta can control the tempo of the game with a healthy dose of Michael Turner (who had ten carries for 100 yards against the Bears) than they’ve got a real chance. That seems like it will be the blueprint all season to beat Philadelphia: control the clock via the run, pound the defense, wear them out, and keep Vick on the sideline as long as possible.
And if I hear one more debate on First Take about how many fans will be wearing Vick jersey’s in the Georgia Dome I might kick a puppy.
St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants -6
What’s worse for the Rams, the fact that Danny Amendola is out with a dislocated elbow or that he is their top wideout—all 5’11 of him? Imagine the Patriots offense if you took away Hernandez, Gronkowski, Branch, Ocho Cinco, and Price, then surrounded Welker with a bunch of mediocre wide receivers who can’t catch. That’s St. Louis’ situation right now. Sure, New York was shredded by Rex Grossman, but now they get Justin Tuck back. I hate this pick.
Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions OVER Kansas City Chiefs
Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Philadelphia Eagles
Pounding of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Seattle Seahawks
Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 8-8
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