Week 1 Picks

It has been eight months since year one of the weekend pick em’ column finished up. Now, after a lockout, a gut-wrenching postseason that saw my beloved Patriots lose to their arch-rivals, and a furiously fast offseason we’re back in action. This year, it’s gonna’ be better than ever. Rather than attempting to discern the exact score of every game (about as likely as Gisele Bundchen walking through my front door) I’m moving to a more gambler friendly format. I’m predicting games against the spread not because I’m a degenerate gambler, but because it’s more challenging than simply picking the winners every Sunday. If you have no idea how the ‘spread’ or ‘odds’ work click HERE.

One last note: week one is always HIGHLY unpredictable. Every year we get at least one crap-your-pants shocker. Last season it was the Colts losing to the Texans by double digits and San Francisco losing to Seattle by 25 points. You really can’t call these things correctly unless you simply go through the list and pick every winner randomly. Therefore, I like to stick to my guns, wait it out, and see what happens. I go with the teams I simply think are better. It's not until week four that we can get a real feel for the NFL landscape.

Atlanta Falcons -6.5 @ Chicago Bears

If Atlanta fancies themselves Super Bowl contenders they need to take care of business against the decidedly mediocre Chicago Bears. This one has trap game written all over it, but I’m being a good degenerate NFL fan and sticking to the squad I like better. That would be the Falcons.

What to watch: Julio Jones. He’s been off to a fast start by all accounts, but how does he acclimate to real, game-time pro football? Atlanta traded most of their 2011 draft, and reportedly sold the rights to Matt Ryan’s unborn child for the wideout, so they need him to break the mold of recent rookie wide receivers and put up big numbers immediately.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns -3



Andy Dalton vs. Colt McCoy—the matchup you’ve all been waiting for, live on CBS! Combine a shortened offseason program, a rookie quarterback passing to a rookie wideout, a sophomore quarterback passing to no one, two semi-strong running games, and this one has 7-3 written all over it.

What to watch: Peyton Hillis if you hit the bong before your fantasy draft and took him higher than the fourth round. But for the rest of us, the Andy Dalton-A.J Green combo. Both are rookies, both are highly touted, and both are playing positions that are historically quite unfriendly to rookies.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs -6

Kansas City certainly looks mediocre, but they can’t blow a home game against the Bills, right? Wait, can they? CAN THEY? They probably can…but first let me throw a stat at you. Buffalo was last year’s 31st best rushing defense. Kansas City owned the league’s 9th best rushing attack. Buffalo drafted unreasonably large Marcell Dareus with the third pick in the draft to put next to pro-bowl defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Their run defense should be better, but not good enough to stop one of the game’s better rushing attacks.

What to watch: An uninteresting game to put it mildly, but I would like to see my ‘Kansas City will suck’ theory put to the test. It’s not likely to happen this week as the Bills are even awful-er, but if it does, oh boy…

Philadelphia Eagles -2 @ St. Louis Rams

Remember the whole ‘sticking to your guns in week 1’ theory? That’s being tested right now. Philadelphia hasn’t figured out how to integrate all their pieces and looked really messy throughout the preseason. The offensive line and linebackers in particular, looked shaky. And now they’re on the road, against a possible playoff squad that can rush the passer. Not to beat a dead horse, but I’m going with the more talented squad—on paper at least.

What to watch: A few things I’m interested in. First, I would like to see how far Sam Bradford has progressed since his rookie campaign. Second, of course, I’d like to see if the Eagles actually look like a team. I’m particularly interested in that defense, and how Asante Samuel (a zone corner who likes to jump passing routes) and Nnamdi (a prototypical man coverage corner) play together.

Detroit Lions +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Where can I lay odds on all 300 pounds of Gerald McCoy landing on Matt Stafford and injuring his shoulder? There’s got to be somewhere, right?

Although I’m not completely sold on Detroit as the next team to crash the party, I strongly believe that the Buc’s are in line to take a step back. Not only did they catch some good breaks last year; but I haven’t liked the vibes emanating from Tampa Bay. I can smell their complacency from 600 miles away.

What to watch: Matthew Stafford. Detroit’s season rests on his shoulders. A fantastic preseason has set the bar way, way too high and I’m not sure Stafford can meet it. I’d like to see if he can.

Tennessee Titans +6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I really think this is going to be an ugly season in Jacksonville. If their games were being blacked out when they were in the thick of the playoff hunt last year, what’s going to happen when they’re 2-8 come November? Anytime you can waive David Garrard for Luke McCown you HAVE to do it!

What to watch: How does Matt Hasselbeck look after having no more than a month to learn a new offense and develop a repertoire with his receivers? Tennessee’s season looks a whole lot less hopeful with Jake Locker under center rather than Hasselbeck…

Pittsburgh Titans +1 @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is getting way too much respect against Pittsburgh—even if they are at home. Their offense is going to be bad people, really bad. These contests are always brutal—that’s why I’m giving Pittsburgh only a point—but I see the Steelers running away with the division this year. Baltimore’s thrown together offensive line doesn’t have a prayer against the Steeler’s pass rush. Anytime you have to call an offensive line ‘thrown together’ you should be weary.

What to watch: Keep a lookout for any signs of the Super Bowl-losers hangover. I’m keeping this line low out of respect, but really, the Steeler’s better talent dictates something like a 24-13 victory.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans -10

This one needs little explanation. If Houston loses this, I’m ditching the bandwagon and driving it into the Gulf of Mexico. Is their season over if they lose to the Manning-less Colts week one?

What to watch: If you didn’t fully appreciate Peyton Manning before, behold the Indianapolis offense without ‘the professor’ under center.

New York Giants @ Washington +3



The vibes coming out of New York are a little too similar to the 10’ Redskins for my taste. Players are unhappy with their contracts, Manning’s security blanket receiver Steve Smith is gone, Plaxico Burress continues to haunt the team off the field, and a recent rash of injuries has all jeopardized New York’s playoff hopes. If Sexy Rexy can hold the fort for a season, there is a chance the Giants could slip all the way to fourth place in the division. In short, Washington is catching Big Blue at exactly the right time.

What to watch: Grossman’s stats have always been ugly. His career year was average, but if he can play at a competent level Washington has a chance to be in the playoff hunt come December. Sunday is our first opportunity to see Grossman at work.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49er’s -6

Tarvaris Jackson vs. Alex Smith…not exactly the Brady-Manning bowl. This one will come down to which quarterback screws up the least, and for some reason, I find myself gravitating towards Alex Smith. That’s probably not a good thing.

What to watch: You probably shouldn’t, but if you do, let me know if Jackson is a competent quarterback. According to the Seattle Media, he’s Captain Composure.

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers -10

Slow starts: the beat the Chargers have marched to for three years. It’s concerning, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for the third straight season.

San Diego should annihilate the Vikings. They’ve got better players at every position but running back, and Minnesota’s second best player—defensive tackle Kevin Williams—is out serving a suspension.

What to watch: San Diego’s offense. Is Ryan Mathews as good as he’s looked through the preseason; is Vincent Jackson primed to have a huge year; does the unit look like it’s clicking? All questions I want answers to.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals -6

I touted the Cardinals in my season preview (which you can read HERE). If they lose to the Panthers I might need to wear a bag over my head for the season. This one might look like a crap-fest but I’ve got WAY too much riding on Kevin Kolb being a competent quarterback. I think he will be, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t lost a considerable amount of sleep over it.

What to watch: This one should be pretty obvious: Kevin Kolb! Is he Johnny Unitas reincarnate or Derek Anderson 2.0? I think he’ll fall somewhere in between—maybe a destitute man’s Drew Brees. We shall see on Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets -4

An intriguing matchup if it weren't for the surreal number of injuries Dallas has sustained over the past week. Rookie tackle Tyron Smith is out, starting corner Terrence Newman is out, and corner Mike Jenkins is questionable. Mark Sanchez may actually be able to complete some passes. Oh, and did I mention that the Jets have added motivation thanks to the comments Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan made about his brother’s foot fiasco? Remember the last time someone made fun of his foot fetish? That didn’t end too well.

What to watch: The quarterbacks. Is Tony Romo his old 4000-yard passing self? My fantasy team sure hopes so. Is Mark Sanchez the same old Mark Sanchez, or did his summer photo shoot for GQ leave him a changed man?

New England Patriots -9 @ Miami Dolphins

Miami’s defense remains strong, but their offense actually got worse this offseason. They went from a Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams backfield to Reggie Bush and the ill-favored Daniel Thomas. Thomas is questionable for Sunday and Reggie Bush is still Reggie Bush—meaning he likes to dance, is a decent receiving threat out of the backfield, and probably can’t carry the rock 20+ times a game (As an aside, I purposely avoided the obvious Kim Kardashian joke. You're welcome) . It’s always concerning when an offense doesn’t have a real strength, and the Dolphins certainly do not.

What to watch: Nate Solder and the Patriot’s offensive line. Sebastian Vollmer hasn’t practiced in a week thanks to a back injury, so it looks like Nate Solder will be thrown into the fire week one. It’s not necessarily a bad thing as Solder looked good throughout the preseason, but rushing the passer is one of Miami’s greatest strengths. Cameron Wake had 14 sacks last season. If New England experiences a pass-blocking disaster akin to what we’ll call ‘Ndamukong-gate’, Miami has a shot in the dark.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos -2.5

I think Denver will be much improved this season. Maybe not 8-8 improved, but they should be entertaining at the very least. Kyle Orton is competent under center and John Fox should bring some order to the chaos left by Josh McDaniels.

Oakland, on the other hand, continues to be Oakland.

What to watch: The Von Miller-Elvis Dumervil combo, which has a chance to become really impressive.

And check out Von Miller, that man has style.



Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals OVER Carolina Panthers

Upset of the Week: Washington Redskins OVER New York Giants

Pounding of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Miami Dolphins