Will We Ever Understand Boston's Collapse?

As humans we attempt to rationalize everything that goes on in our lives. It’s how we work. It keeps us sane. It’s comforting. Yesterday, as I was walking with a friend to dinner, bird feces dropped from the sky and landed on his hand and wrist. I found this incredibly amusing, but my friend, however, did not. As we searched frantically for the nearest restroom (we eventually landed in the campus ministry building) we tried to make sense of his misfortune. We realized that above the scene of the crime was a power line where dozens and dozens of birds were congregating. Still, though, this was amazing to us. Of all the birds lined up side by side, one decided to defecate and my friend happened to be directly under the trajectory of the feces. How could this happen? Incredibly poor luck we reasoned; my friend is probably safe from airborne bird poop for the rest of his life. That’s how rare it is, once you get your one hit-by-flying-poop experience out of the way you’re set for forever. Just as we were leaving the building, I remarked half-jokingly, “dude, that’s a bad omen”.

This leads us to last night, a night in which four teams had everything to play for. The Red Sox were looking for one more chance to reverse a disastrous collapse, the Rays were trying to complete an epic comeback, the Braves were in a dead heat with the Sox for most embarrassing September swoon and the Cardinals were following the Rays blueprint. You’ve heard this 4,629,488 times on Sportscenter, but this is really unprecedented in Baseball history. Never has there been this much at stake on the last night of the regular season. Rarely do things like this ever live up to the hype. The Red Sox could just as easily win 11-1 and the Yankees could blow the Rays out, and BOOM, the race is over. On to October.

The night started innocently enough, as New York raced out to a 7-0 lead and Boston was hanging on by a point over the Orioles. So far so boring; I went as far as to flip the channel to ABC and watch an awfully acted show about a woman getting her revenge, cleverly titled Revenge. Three seconds before turning the television off--my hand hovering over the power button--I flipped to ESPN. 7-7. Tie ball-game. WHAT? In between terrible television shows, I missed a Tampa Bay comeback that included a home run smashed on the last out, before the last strike, literally in the last moment of the Ray’s season? We watch sports SPECIFICALLY for these moments that come along only ever so often, AND I MISSED ONE?

Bad news is usually delivered slowly…in short, measured sentences. Every syllable bleeding innuendo as the truth dawns on the recipient. You don’t say, “Hey Dad, last night I was drunk, decided to drive anyway, and smashed your 69’ Charger into a telephone pole”. It’s more like, “I…uh…made some bad decisions last night, and well, I drank a little too much, and my friends made me drive. I promise, I told them it wasn’t a good idea…but, uh, they made me, so I uh…kind of got in a little, uh, fender-bender with your car”. We probably do this because a flood of terrible news is overwhelming. We can’t process it. You know that old cliché in movies and soap operas where someone finds out a loved one is dead, they refuse to believe it, and either attempt to talk to them, call them, or otherwise act like nothing unusual/tragic happened? That’s exactly what I mean.

Sports fandom follows a similar pattern. Take, for example, last Sunday’s Pats-Bills game. I wasn’t able to watch it live (having to settle with Game Rewind after the fact) for a myriad number of reasons I won’t bore you with, but I followed along on ESPN’s Gamecast and received constant updates via text from the father. By the time New England led by 21 in the middle of the second quarter and a 250-yard, 4-touchdown Tom Brady performance by halftime was not only feasible but highly likely, I was feeling quite chipper. Take that Buffalo! We’re the MOTHER FACKIN’ Patriots. We don’t give a damn about no Havad’ graduate! But then Brady threw a pick, Buffalo gained 60 yards in like three seconds, and it was 21-10 at the break. That’s a possible 10 point swing. I’ve followed sports long enough to know that was a turning point. It’s one of those sixth senses' you get as a sports fan where you know the specific point your team lost the game, before the game is even lost.

And then Brady threw another pick. This one was particularly surreal, as it was identical to a pass Brady threw earlier in the contest that resulted in a touchdown to Tight End Rob Gronkowski. This time he didn’t get enough air under the ball, it sunk too fast and the corner leapt and picked the pass off. After an unreal ten quarters of quarterbacking, Brady finally made a mistake. This wasn’t going well. You could feel it.

Then he threw another one; this time the receiver’s fault as Ochocinco didn’t seem to run the route properly. A trio of picks—just a year after Brady threw four the entire 2010 season? Was this really happening? Then, not two minutes later, my Dad texted, “Brady picked for six”. I understood; it seemed almost logical. Over two quarters of Brady interceptions, bad defense, and a Bills comeback I slowly began to accept that the Patriots were going to lose. It was just the way the game was going; Brady NEVER throws this many interceptions. I had accepted it.

Last night was different and the same altogether. The Red Sox have looked like a defeated ball club for four weeks and Tampa Bay has looked invigorated ever since they leapt back into the playoff race. A Red Sox loss and Tampa Bay victory would be a fitting end to a confusing season. But still, even as I braced for impact, I had hope. I had even more hope when the Yankees held a sizable lead heading into the bottom of the eighth and the Red Sox were holding on by the slimmest of margins.

A drop and a crack. That’s what ended my night. It happened quickly; Carl Crawford, in the last game of his miserable season, dropped a catch a man making nine figures should make. A run was scored. 4-3 Orioles. Boston needed the Yankees to come through with a run in extra innings to force a 163rd game—a playoff between the Rays and Sox for the wildcard spot. Two minutes later, Evan Longoria—a woefully underpaid superstar—smashed a ball to left-field. A home run. The season was over. Just like that, no build up—nothing. Boom, boom, ball-game. Mouth a-gape, I crawled into bed, set my alarm and forced my brain to process what just happened. Sportscenter wasn’t much help as Scott Van Pelt and Mike Tirico were just as flabbergasted as I was. Neither was Twitter.

Just like bird crap falling from the sky, this hit everyone hard, fast, and with a poignant ‘sploosh’. Even as rational people, striving to understand everything around us, last night was incomprehensible. Sometimes, it seems like an entity upstairs is pulling all of the strings, because the way it all ended was simply too perfect.

The Morning After--Week 3

1. In today’s NFL, Oakland’s style of play is refreshing…


Photo courteous of Sports Illustrated

In week three, 11 Quarterbacks threw for at least 300 yards. In week two, nine QB’s accomplished the feat. You’re no doubt tired of hearing this, but quarterbacks are pretty prolific in the modern-day NFL. That’s why it’s so fun to watch the Oakland Raiders play football. They’ve allowed running back Darren McFadden (who has to be a top-three back’ at this point) to carry the team; something the Vikings—with the consensus best running back in the game—haven’t done. And this doesn’t seem fluky; the Raiders just gashed the Jets (per DVOA, 2010’s 2nd best run defense) for 234 yards on the ground.

Not only can they run the ball, but the Raiders seem to have a revolving door of monstrous defensive lineman. Get this: Oakland’s smallest starting defensive lineman is the 6’5, 270-pound Matt Shaughnessy. The four linemen have five sacks combined, and the defense as a whole has got to the quarterback ten times—good for third in the league. I don’t have any cool statistics to back this one up, but Oakland’s defense just seems mean. They’ve got some of the hardest hitting players in the game in Rolando McClain, Michael Huff, and Tommy Kelley. They’re demonstrative. They’re huge. They might not always be perfect, but they hit hard as hell, and that’s gotta’ count for something.

I haven’t dumped the Cardinals, but I’m definitely flirting with the Raiders. Another game like that and it could be getting hot and heavy.

2. Should we be concerned with the Pittsburgh Steelers?

Pittsburgh had two consensus ‘question marks’ heading into 2011: the offensive line and the aging defense (eight defensive starters at least 30-years old). After an incredible performance in 2010, the defense seems to be nearly as good (excluding a bad week one loss to the Ravens) as Father Time hasn’t yet shown his face. The offensive line, however, is another story entirely. Many others (including me) dismissed the issue because Pittsburgh was able to reach the Super Bowl last year with essentially the same problem. Why exactly, couldn’t they do it again with the same group? So far, we seem to have been sorely mistaken. Roethlisberger has already been sacked nine times and the running game just isn’t working. The Steelers were the 14th best rushing offense in 2010, but this season they’ve managed only 257 yards and a yards per carry average of 3.3. After suffering a seeming endless barrage of injuries across the line in 2010 the curse has struck again. Sunday night, Jonathan Scott, Marcus Gilbert, and Doug Legursky were all taken out of the game with various ailments. It’s too early to determine what this will do to Pittsburgh’s offense, but it sure wasn’t pretty Monday night against the Colts. If it weren’t for the Curtis Painter experience, Indianapolis might have snuck out a victory. Oh, Curtis…

3. What happened to Philadelphia’s explosiveness?

Michael Lombardi of the NFL Network and NFL.com loves to compare the Eagles to a fast break-oriented basketball team. They’re fast, live or die by the big play, and rely on their playmakers to make incredible plays. If you’re searching for answers regarding Philadelphia’s 1-2 start, look no further than their lack of big-play production. Last season, Michael Vick led the league with 40+ yard pass plays (12) and DeSean Jackson was third in the league with eight catches of at least 40 yards. Running back LeSean McCoy was tops in the league with five runs of at least 40 yards, and as a whole, Philadelphia averaged 6.0 yards per play, second in the league. That was a lot of math to tell you what you already know.

This season, through three games, Philly’s offense has been anything but explosive. They’ve had only 14 plays of 20 yards or longer. For comparison’s sake, the league’s best offense, the New England Patriots have recorded 24 said plays. Even more telling, DeSean Jackson—one of the league’s premier deep threats—is averaging only 15.3 yards per catch after averaging 22.5 last year and he’s caught only one pass that has gone for more than 20 yards. Plenty of offenses succeed without legitimate homerun threats, but Philadelphia thrived last season with one of the best big play combinations in the NFL: Michael Vick to DeSean Jackson. Thanks to a shoddy offensive line they aren’t making the connection…

4. Beginning to question New England’s personnel strategy...



In a land before time the Patriots were known for their defense, their ability to befuddle Peyton Manning, and for a coach considered by many to be a ‘defensive genius’. And cut-off hoodies. Lots, and lots of cut-off hoodies. Per the Football Outsiders DVOA statistic, New England hasn’t possessed a top ten defense since 2006. That’s a far cry from the Super Bowl winning years, when the Pat’s owned the 13th, 2nd, and 6th best defenses, respectively. The biggest reason for the defensive dry spell, I suspect, is the loss of talent. In 2008 New England traded defensive lineman Richard Seymour to Oakland for a first round pick. Seymour, since the trade, has accumulated 12 sacks and went to the Pro Bowl in 2010. In his last season in New England Seymour had one his best years yet with eight sacks. The Patriot’s brain trust is famous for dumping players for serious value just before they decline, but Seymour at 31, continues to play at a Pro Bowl level. You think the Patriots could use him with their anemic pass rush?

That, of course, is a bit of a red herring because with the pick from the Seymour trade New England took tackle Nate Solder with the 17th pick in the 2011 draft. Solder, although a rookie, is bursting with ability and promise. If he’s a franchise Left Tackle two-three years down the road, who can really say it was a failed trade? You can’t. But instead of messing around with over-the-hill free agents to generate a pass rush, the Patriots would already have a premier defensive lineman.

5. The Texans aren’t going anywhere if they can’t score in the Red Zone…

As Pro Football Talk points out HERE, the Texans have been poor in the Red Zone through three games, and unsurprisingly that’s nothing new. This season Houston has scored a touchdown on only 3 of their 13 trips. Over the past three seasons Houston has ranked third, second, and third in yards per game. In terms of scoring offense, the Texans have ranked ninth, tenth, and seventeenth in those same seasons. They can move the ball, they simply struggle to score. That issue was painfully obvious against the Saints, as they kicked four field goals—three of which came inside the Saint’s ten yard line. You simply can’t be that inefficient against an offense as efficient as the Saints. With the amount of talent Houston enjoys, there is no reason they shouldn’t win the AFC South…handily.

6. What if the Buffalo Bills hadn’t whiffed on two straight top 11 draft picks?



In 2009 the Bills took Aaron Maybin with the 11th pick of the draft. He was cut this past offseason, picked up by the Jets, than once again cut from the roster. Two picks later the Redskins selected Brian Orakpo, who has since been to two straight Pro Bowls. In 2010 Buffalo selected running back C.J Spiller 9th overall. While it may be too early to call him a bust, Spiller has only accumulated 365 yards and two touchdowns in 17 career games. Three picks later the Chargers selected Ryan Mathews: a 2011 revelation. What’s done is done, but you can’t help wonder how great the 3-0 Bills would be if they nailed even one of those picks.

7. The cleverest play you’ve ever seen…

…that didn’t count. Because the officials called a phantom holding penalty on a player who wasn’t within ten yards of another soul. If only this happened in a playoff game…or the Super Bowl.

ALSO: Could Joe Buck have sounded any less excited? I know there was a flag thrown early on, but that's one of the top five greatest plays I've ever seen. It was BRILLIANT.

Week 3 Picks

Houston Texans +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints



Wait, am I really picking the Texans to beat the Saints in the Superdome even though Drew Brees has been near perfect through two weeks, and week three was where all of Houston’s dreams were shattered last season? Yes, yes I am. The Texans are gambling in a nutshell. You’re beat up as hell, continuously losing money and close to selling your dog just for one more crack at the blackjack table because this is the time you strike gold. You just KNOW it is. This year, I KNOW the Texans are going to be good.

Please Houston, don’t let me down…

New York Giants -3 @ Philadelphia Eagles

I’d love to take the Giants…if they were healthy. They’re down Domenik Hixon and Mario Manningham—two of Eli’s best weapons. BUT, BUT, the Giants can run the ball (9th in DVOA so far), and can rush the passer (six sacks and 17 quarterback hits). What do we know about the Eagles? They struggle stopping the run and can't protect Michael Vick. I don’t like this pick, but it seems logical.

Jacksonville Jaguars +4 @ Carolina Panthers



Are we overvaluing the Panthers? Their rushing attack—once the strength of the team—is only the 17th best per DVOA, and DeAngelo Williams has gone for 43 yards on 17 attempts. In both games combined. Remember when he ran for 18 touchdowns and over 1,500 yards in 2008? Neither do I…

New England Patriots -9 @ Buffalo Bills

Does Ryan Fitzpatrick piss excellence; do his tears cure cancer; is there any truth to the rumor that Fitzpatrick was a member of Seal Team Six and killed Osama bin Laden with his Harvard diploma? Based on ESPN’s recent coverage of the Bills, it’s a distinct possibility. I’m glad the Bills are ‘back on the map’, but I’m going to be the douche who thinks it stops Sunday. The Raiders put up 35 on the Bills; couldn’t the Pats drop a 50-burger?

Miami Dolphins +1 @ Cleveland Browns

Miami’s ineptitude at home—1-9 at Sun Life Stadium since the beginning of last season—is one of the strangest ongoing streaks in sports. It is virtually unexplainable. But hey, I’ll go with it, especially because the Fish get a tasty road contest against the Browns, a team with less offensive talent than the Florida Marlins.

San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals -2

I hate going with rookie quarterbacks. I hate going with Alex Smith even more. I’ll go with Cincinnati, but both quarterbacks are liable to throw three picks any given Sunday.

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans -6

One of the most intriguing sub-plots this season has been the Titan’s ability to win (ok, it was only against the Ravens, but still) with literally nothing from Chris Johnson. His longest run from scrimmage has been 11 yards and he’s averaging only 2.3 yards per carry. To put that into perspective, in 2009, he had long runs of 32, 91, and 30 yards the first three weeks, respectively. Once a threat to break a big play at any given time, now he looks like Laurence Maroney in the backfield. Considering the Broncos have given up 262 rushing yards the past two weeks, this could be Johnson’s best chance yet to return to his old form.

Detroit Lions -8 @ Minnesota Vikings



I want to pick the Vikings, I really, really do. This is the first elite defense the Lions have faced yet. As PFT points out here, Lion’s left tackle Jeff Backus hasn’t been great, despite Matthew Stafford being sacked all of zero times this young season. Now he has to block Jared Allen, about as touch a matchup as they come, and the interior line will have its hands full with Kevin Williams, who is making his return after a two game suspension.

But then consider Donovan McNabb, who if it wasn’t for Luke McCown would win the ‘most uncomfortable quarterback to watch’ award in a landslide. How can you put any trust into a guy who threw for 39 yards in a game and averaged 2.6 yards per attempt? Memo to the Vikings: this isn’t 1936.

Baltimore Ravens -7 @ St. Louis Rams

Watching the Rams Monday night, I felt completely validated for not slobbering all over them in my preseason predictions. They simply cannot score points, and they were rewarded for not making the postseason in 2010 with a BRUTAL schedule that doesn’t get any better until week nine. The sad part? They could STILL win the NFC West if my Cardinals don’t step it up. Wait, did I just call them ‘my Cardinals’? I need to stop.

New York Jets -4 @ Oakland Raiders

Hugh Jackson is using that Mark Sanchez hotdog-eating incident as motivation for his team? Of course he is, it’s the Raiders. The Jets are better, and because we know nothing about the season yet, I'll ride the stronger team. It gets better, I promise.

Kansas City Chiefs @ San Diego Chargers -13

Michael Floyd is doubtful and Antonio Gates is out, but San Diego could hang 35 on the Chiefs with Fat Albert and Kermit the Frog catching balls.

Arizona Cardinals -2 @ Seattle Seahawks

Kevin Kolb>Tarvaris Jackson. Arizona offense>Seattle offense. Pee Wee football league>Seattle Seahawks

Atlanta Falcons +2 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

I’m not entirely sure how the Falcons beat the Eagles. For 50 minutes, Atlanta was borderline pathetic on offense. Remember, though, that Philadelphia’s got the best trio of cornerbacks in the league. Tampa Bay however, does not. I’m banking on Atlanta’s offense having their first big game of the season.

Green Bay Packers -6.5 @ Chicago Bears



Green Bay is the most blitz-happy defense in the league, and Chicago’s offense line is by far the worst around. What am I missing?

Pittsburgh Steelers -13.5 @ Indianapolis Colts

In 2009 the Colts made Donald Brown the 27th pick of the draft, passing over wide receivers Kenny Britt and Hakeem Nicks. Nicks is coming off a 1000-yard, 11 touchdown season and Kenny Britt amassed over 700 yards and nine touchdowns in only 12 games. In 2007 the Colts drafted the perennially injured Anthony Gonzalez 32nd overall over players like Zack Miller (38), Eric Weddle (37), and Kevin Kolb (36). In 2010, the Colts tabbed Jerry Hughes with the 31st pick. He’s gone on to amass seven tackles in two seasons. It's a good thing they have Peyton Manning...oh, wait.

Washington Redskins +3 @ Dallas Cowboys

As much as I like the Cowboys (a lot), every one of their major skill-position players is either out or questionable. And I sort of, kind of, maybe, possibly believe the Redskins are a quality football team. In other news, Rex Grossman is slowly luring me into a false sense of security. It’s only a matter of time until he throws four picks, loses a fumble, and goes 11-32 in a disastrous loss. I hope it isn’t this week…but since I’m showing faith in the Redskins, it probably will be.

NOTE: Couldn't find a line for this one, so where going to go ahead and pretend the Cowboys were favored.

Upset of the Week: New York Giants OVER Philadelphia Eagles

Pounding of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Indianapolis Colts

Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Last Week: 9-7

Overall: 17-15

The Morning After--Week 2

As always, we say goodbye to week two slightly more confused than when it began. In a way, the NFL is like a season of Lost—more questions than answers, a confusing plotline, and a few ‘where-the-hell-did-that-come-from?’ story arcs. In the spirit of the unfathomable NFL season and my favorite television show ever, let’s bang out some questions and answers…

1. Are the Patriots doing something unprecedented on offense?



I’ve never seen an offense operate like these 2011 Patriots. Starting tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are on pace to combine for 2,696 receiving yards, 40 touchdowns, and a few dozen footballs spiked to the rafters. Have you ever seen an offense combine a pair of such prolific receiving tight ends? Even better, they complement each other perfectly. Hernandez is fast becoming Brady’s favorite target with 14 receptions (second only to Branch’s 15) while Rob Gronkowski is the big, soft-handed red zone threat New England has been missing since Moss lost it.

Besides the blinding pace with which Brady operates the offense, Gronkowski and Hernandez present frightening matchup problems. Wideouts Deion Branch and Wes Welker demand attention outside, leaving nickel corners, safeties, and linebacker’s to deal with the tight ends. It’s a frightening prospect, and something I have never seen before. Double tight end sets normally indicate a power formation but with New England, it’s practically a spread attack. Do you see the matchup advantages this gives New England and the ridiculous flexibility it allows Tom Brady? The Patriots can line up in a ‘12’ personnel package (one back and two tight ends) and will be in an effective package to either run or spread the defense out and pass.

2. An update on my beloved Cardinals…

As you should know by now, I’ve got way too much riding on the Cardinals this season. I’ve got no personal attachment to the team, but I went with them as my 2011 sleeper pick. In part because of the Kevin Kolb upgrade, but also because they play in the ‘remedial English’ division of football. So how did they look week two? Arizona’s defense is worse than I ever imagined, and top five draft pick Patrick Peterson is doing everything well except covering receivers. And for whatever reason, Defensive Coordinator Ray Horton has decided to send blitzes from the secondary with wild abandon…probably not the best idea if your defense couldn’t cover Vince Wilfork running a fly pattern.

Offensively, Arizona began the game with some strange play-calling, including three straight passes on their first drive. But once they decided to run the ball, Beanie Wells got going and accumulated 93 rushing yards on only 14 carries—good for a 6.6 average. With St. Louis and Seattle sitting at 0-2, and the 49ers at 1-1 with a date against the surprisingly decent Bengals upcoming, things are looking up for KEVIN KOLBBBBB!!!!! and the Arizona Cardinals.

3. Do the Chargers have the best receiving corps in the league?



New England—for the most part—covered the Chargers receivers well. They eliminated all-pro tight end Antonio Gates from the game, didn’t blow any coverages, and Ras I Dowling and Devin McCourty were stuck like glue to Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on who you are), San Diego’s wideouts make catching footballs look pitifully easy. Philip Rivers seems to have a great repertoire with his pass catchers, and he throws it to places where the 6’3 Jackson and 6’5 Floyd can go get it. Because of their height, they’re usually the only ones in position to make the catch. If/when San Diego stops turning the ball over, they could have the league’s best offense; not New England or Green Bay. They’ve certainly got the talent…

4. Are the Indianapolis Colts really going to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes?

Remember that old grade school adage, “Leave some water for the fish”? I’m using it here for the Colts; they’ve already got a quarterback, leave Andrew Luck for the teams that are desperate. Let me ask you a question (Colts fans please leave the room). Would you rather have Andrew Luck sit on the Indianapolis bench for three to five years or watch him transform the 49ers into a contender? Having an immense talent sitting behind your hall of famer is no doubt an excellent move (see: Green Bay Packers), but that’s one more perennial dreg that will remain a perennial dreg without a franchise signal-caller. As far as the league is concerned, that's probably not a good thing.

5. What happened in Nashville?

As great as Baltimore looked coming off of a dominant win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Titans looked just as bad off of a week one loss to the Luke McCown led Jaguars (whom, I might add, threw four interceptions against the Jets). What happened? Matt Hasselbeck tore apart last year’s sixth best pass defense (per DVOA), Baltimore managed only two QB hits on Hasselbeck and no sacks, Kenny Britt continued his ascent towards stardom, and Joe Flacco was miserable all day. Flacco went 15 of 32 for 197 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Of his 15 completions, only three went for 20 or more yards, one of which was a check down to running back Ray Rice who worked his magic and took it 31 yards to the house. Furthermore, only nine balls were caught by wide receivers/tight ends—the rest were to running backs. While Baltimore couldn’t manufacture any pressure at all, the Titans managed to sack Flacco three times and added five quarterback hits. After a dominant performance vs. the Steelers, Baltimore’s offense returned to its inconsistent ways.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense was stellar despite Chris Johnson’s second straight bad game. Johnson was given the ball 24 times yet only gained 53 yards and his longest run from scrimmage was a mighty…seven yards. Do you remember the days when he was the most explosive player in the league? When you weren't willing to pry your eyes off the television screen because CJ2K was a threat to break a long one every play?

6. Cam Newton…is balling?



Not only has he thrown for 400+ yards in two straight games, but he’s managed to resuscitate the corpse of Steve Smith, who is leading the league in receiving yards. Here’s what has surprised me the most about Newton: his likeability. I follow college football on the peripheral, so Newton was merely an ideal to me until the season started; a player with all the talent followed by all the drama. I certainly didn’t do my due diligence, and based solely on what I heard from ESPN Cam Newton struck me as arrogant and maybe a bit entitled. I was getting strong, strong whiffs of Jamarcus Russell from the Auburn product.

But now, almost two weeks have gone by and just like everyone else, I find myself inexplicably drawn to the aura surrounding Cam Newton. I think its two parts his demeanor (calm and collected), four parts his humble attitude towards the NFL (his comments about the Packers), and five parts his eye-popping talent. As you know from this piece, I’ve been in situations surrounded by people better than I am. For myself, it’s better writers; for Cam Newton, it’s better quarterbacks. The strong and driven among us learn from the experience, while the weak drown under the pressure.

So far, I think it's safe to say Professor Newton is doing everything but drowning...

7. Believe in the Bills at your own risk…

I’m such a douche; I just can’t soak in the glow of a feel-good-story and relish in the rise of the under-dog Harvard graduate, can I? I’m sure I’ll burn in hell at some point for this, buttttt…

The Bills were dominant against a Kansas City team that is far, far worse than the most hated of the haters could have predicted. Not only are they naturally bad, but their best offensive (Jamaal Charles) AND defensive player (Eric Berry) are done for the season. After the football gods were done with Indianapolis, they obviously set their sights on Kansas City.

After a 41-7 thrashing of the Chiefs, the Bills went on to eke out a victory against the Oakland Raiders. It was certainly heroic, as the stoic Chan Gailey can attest to, but they were down 21-3 at one point. If the RAIDERS hung 35 points on Buffalo’s defense; imagine what the Patriots will do, or any other above average offense.

But with Fitzpatrick tossing frozen ropes and Fred Jackson becoming 2011’s don’t-look-away-or-you-might-miss-an-insane-touchdown-run running back, the Buffalo Bills are a hell of a lot of fun to watch. We haven’t been able to say that for a while…

Week 2 Picks

It’s week two, which means we’re that much closer to a clearer picture of the NFL landscape. Will the Bills return to mediocrity; does Kerry Collins right the ship; do the Texans begin their customary disappearing act after a dominant opening weekend victory?

Here’s the key to week two: don’t overreact to anything that happened in week one. Don’t bury the Steelers if you really like them just because they played the sloppiest game of their collective lives against a hungry division rival. You can’t really glean anything useful until week four. With that in mind, here are my week two picks…

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions -8

I thought the Chiefs would be bad, but not losing by 34 to a non-contender bad. Consider how Kansas City Coach Todd Haley decided to rest his starters throughout the preseason and reportedly did nothing but conditioning drills through training camp, and I guess it’s not really a surprise that they lost handily to the Bills. Now that safety Eric Berry is done for the year, how can anyone expect the Chiefs to walk into Detroit and beat the Lions?

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills -2.5



Did you know that Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard?! According to the always reliable Wikipedia, Fitzpatrick finished in the top one percent of his high school class and was named the 5th smartest professional athlete by Sporting News. I don’t know what this means, but I sure am tired of ESPN stuffing this information down our throats.

In other news, Oakland’s top two wideouts are out and Jason Campbell is still the Quarterback. Oakland might actually throw it less than they did against Denver. Buffalo owned last year’s 31st ranked run defense, and they’ll need to show improvement against the Raiders or else Darren McFadden will make a lot of fantasy owners VERY happy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 @ Minnesota Vikings

This game is like throwing crap against the wall—of course that’s pretty much what Donovan McNabb did last week against the Chargers. It’s almost hard to throw for only 39 yards in today’s NFL. Last Sunday, 14 quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards and four threw for over 400. Essentially, McNabb was outplayed by Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Rex Grossman, and Kevin Kolb. Until McNabb shows any signs of life I simply can’t trust the Vikings.

Chicago Bears +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints

Are we sure the Saints can play defense anymore? Drew Brees could make a quadriplegic monkey look competent at wide receiver but surely the offense will suffer without Marques Colston, New Orleans top wideout. Chicago probably won’t get a defensive score and two other turnovers again, but the way the Saints defense looked last weekend even Donovan McNabb could pose as Tom Brady.

Baltimore Ravens -6 @ Tennessee Titans

If the Titans—or one of my fantasy teams—have a hope this season, they need better than 24 yards on nine carries from Chris Johnson. On the bright side, Matt Hasselbeck looked decent throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns. He threw a duck to lose the game and it was against the Jaguars, but that was as promising a start as you could hope for. But the Ravens dominated what many perceived to be the best team in the NFL, and until they show us otherwise, I’m riding the Ravens. To where, who knows.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts +1.5



What do you think Peyton Manning did while the Colts were getting massacred by the Texans? Is his expression a permanent ‘Manning face’ at this point? I’ll go with the Colts only because Cleveland looked so deplorable against the Bengals.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets -9

I don’t have to write anything for this one, do I? It’s Luke McCown vs. the Jets defense! It’s a wide receiver who no one has ever heard of trash-talking Darrelle Revis! What could possibly go wrong?

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers -13



Angry Mike Tomlin press conferences are terrifying. Angry Mike Tomlin in the locker room must be crap-your-pants scary. Most coaches are either belligerent and short on patience after losses (think Todd Haley) or quiet and steaming (Bill Belichick). Tomlin is neither, he’s more crazy guy, ‘I’ll start throwing chairs at people’ angry. Those are the guys I’m most afraid of. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tomlin gorilla-glued a football to Roethlisberger’s hand this week after he was responsible for five of Pittsburgh’s seven turnovers. In short, expect the Steelers to annihilate the Seahawks—not just to save their season—but because of crazy guy Mike Tomlin.

Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Washington Redskins

STAY AWAY FROM THIS GAME. I’m all caught up in Cardinal-mania (if there is such a thing), but we really don’t know how good either of these teams are. That’s the thing about week one—Arizona may have looked brilliant because they played the Panthers and Washington may have gotten their one good Grossman game of the year. Speaking of Rex, recall these stats I presented HERE regarding his famed inconsistency.

Consider yourself warned…

Green Bay Packers -12 @ Carolina Panthers

I’ve got absolutely nothing against Cam Newton but I can’t wait until his inevitable collapse against the Packer’s defense just so I don’t have to hear about how ‘magical’ his week one performance was. And believe me, this is probably the most difficult matchup Cam could ask for. Dom Capers is known for his complicated zone blitz schemes, and Newton is not necessarily known for dissecting defenses with the precision of a surgeon.

Dallas Cowboys -6 @ San Francisco 49ers

Tony Romo’s interception to essentially seal Dallas’ fate Sunday night was comically bad (I read it the whole way), but let’s all remember that San Francisco needed two moments of Ted Ginn brilliance to win. Against the Seahawks. Despite THREE Seattle turnovers and ELEVEN penalties. Alex Smith threw for only 120 yards, and according to the Football Outsiders, Frank Gore had the worst rushing performance of the week.

Here’s what I’m taking way too long to get at: Dallas is good but choked in miserable fashion and San Francisco is worse than mediocre because they needed a duo of incredible special team’s plays to eke out a victory against possibly the league’s worst team.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots -3

Two nights ago I dreamt that Tom Brady threw for 731 yards against the Chargers. I swear on the life of my unborn children that this was an actual dream I had. I remember nothing else besides cracking open the newspaper (which I NEVER do), checking the box score, and nearly feinting after seeing the passing total. I don’t know what’s stranger: the fact that I dream about Tom Brady, that I read the newspaper to check stats, or that somewhere in my brain I believe it’s even possible for an NFL quarterback to throw for 700+ yards. But that puts into perspective the kind of night Brady had. The bottom line: I’m riding Brady until he stumbles. Period. The end.

Houston Texans -5 @ Miami Dolphins

Would I be surprised if Houston lost by 20 to the Dolphins? Only mildly, because it’s the Texans and the Wade Philips-Gary Kubiak combo is terrifying.

Tom Brady’s virtuoso evisceration of Miami’s defense Monday night may have us under-valuing the fish, but Houston’s elite offense should also be able to do naughty things to the Dolphins.

Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 @ Denver Broncos

Denver could quite possibly be facing Cincinnati without their three best players: Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, and Brandon Lloyd. Cedric Benson is no Darren McFadden, but Oakland did amass 190 yards on the ground against the putrid Denver defense. Here’s what the Bengals can do reasonably well: run the ball, play defense, and play physical football. Putting any sort of trust in Andy Dalton on the road is only terrifying until you realize Kyle Orton will be playing with Tim Tebow chants ringing in his ears. Poor guy.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons +2.5



Upset pick of the week! Atlanta’s defeat looked much more like a product of sloppiness and bad luck last week than an actual regression.

Remember how Stephen Jackson gashed the Eagles on a 40-yard touchdown run the first play of the game week one? The point is: that run defense looks soft. If Atlanta can control the tempo of the game with a healthy dose of Michael Turner (who had ten carries for 100 yards against the Bears) than they’ve got a real chance. That seems like it will be the blueprint all season to beat Philadelphia: control the clock via the run, pound the defense, wear them out, and keep Vick on the sideline as long as possible.

And if I hear one more debate on First Take about how many fans will be wearing Vick jersey’s in the Georgia Dome I might kick a puppy.

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants -6

What’s worse for the Rams, the fact that Danny Amendola is out with a dislocated elbow or that he is their top wideout—all 5’11 of him? Imagine the Patriots offense if you took away Hernandez, Gronkowski, Branch, Ocho Cinco, and Price, then surrounded Welker with a bunch of mediocre wide receivers who can’t catch. That’s St. Louis’ situation right now. Sure, New York was shredded by Rex Grossman, but now they get Justin Tuck back. I hate this pick.

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions OVER Kansas City Chiefs

Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Philadelphia Eagles

Pounding of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Seattle Seahawks

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 8-8

The Morning After--Week 1

Do things ever really change in the NFL? Tony Romo is still inconceivably frustrating, the Chargers STILL can’t defend a kickoff return, Donovan McNabb and Kerry Collins are more washed up than a beached whale, Rex Ryan is as repulsive ever, and Rex Grossman remains a perennial MVP candidate.



WAIT, WHAT?

Okay, okay, maybe things change. Occasionally. Let’s get right to it…

1. Rexy is looking awfully sexy...

I’m not willing to crown Grossman the next Dan Marino quite yet, but he was mighty impressive against the Giants—even if they were down their best defensive player in Justin Tuck. However, I would be weary if I was a Redskin fan as Rex has ever been an inconsistent one. In 2006—his career year—Grossman had eight games with a quarterback rating better than 98.0. Unfortunately, he finished the season with a 73.9 rating because he had four sub-37.0 games including a 10.3 gem against the Cardinals and a 1.3 debacle against the Vikings.

With that said, he was PHENOMENAL Sunday. He made some jaw-dropping beautiful throws usually reserved for Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the best. That fade to Anthony Armstrong with 40 seconds left in the half was absolutely perfect, and that’s probably the hardest throw in the game.

2. Dissecting Kevin Kolb and Arizona’s performance…



I have a lot riding on the Cardinals this season (like my reputation), and that’s probably not a good thing.

Here’s what I took away from game one:

-Kevin Kolb was impressive. Not only did he pass the stats test (18/27, 309 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero picks), but he looked good also. He tossed a couple of errant passes (like a near interception in the red zone) but he also beat the blitz multiple times (once for a touchdown) and made some nice plays on the run. It’s easy to dismiss a solid performance against the Panthers, but Carolina’s defense is finally healthy—and they still got shredded. The real test comes next week against Washington…

-Beanie Wells looks roughly 748 percent better than he did last season. Sure, he completely muffed a toss in the red zone, but he ran for 90 yards on 18 carries and punched it in on a seven yard run.

-Arizona’s secondary looks truly awful. Houston’s 2010 defensive backfield might have company as one of the worst in recent memory. Rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson is wildly athletic, but he was beaten constantly by Steve Smith. Unfortunately for the Cardinals he’s probably their best option at corner. Let’s hope he grows into the role…

3. Can anyone explain Baltimore’s decision to go for two up 27-7?

This may seem minor, but why would Baltimore waste a nifty play to have in their back pocket to lead Pittsburgh by 29 rather than 27? I can’t think of one logical reason other than it would be fun to humiliate the Steelers even further…

4. Regarding kickoffs…

Kicks are sailing eight-nine yards deep into the end zone yet players are still taking the ball out and attempting a return. Under the old rules, where balls were kicked from the 30 rather than the 35 and boomers that went deep into the end zone were much less common, returners would rarely attempt to return such deep kicks. Yet here they are, practically catching the ball under the field goal post, and attempting returns when the opponent’s coverage team is already at the 10 when they’re crossing the plain of the end zone.

Most ‘experts’ thought that the new kickoff rule would virtually remove the return game as a serious weapon. Yet on opening weekend FIVE kicks were returned for touchdowns. But for as many home runs as we got, there were just as many duds that resulted in drives starting from the 10-15 yard line—a starting point usually reserved for excellent punts; not kickoffs. Are players choosing to return these kicks out of boredom, or perhaps because they would like to prove the doubters wrong? I can’t imagine either the head coach or special team’s coordinator being comfortable with such a high-risk, high-reward type of play.

As far as why five kicks were taken to the house? I have a theory that it’s due to more momentum and more time for blockers to get in position. We need a Sports Science segment on this…

5. Matthew Stafford and friends aced test number one…

That was a massive win for Detroit. A big loss in week one could have brought an abrupt end to the momentum accrued from a fantastic preseason. Stafford started things off with an overthrown ball that resulted in a pick six, but after that he was flawless. Of course, throwing to Calvin Johnson always helps. Johnson is the best receiver in football, right? Check out this catch:

This game wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Take away the defensive touchdown and a Mike Williams toe-tap score with under two minutes left, and Tampa Bay would have scored only six points. In the first three quarters Tampa Bay’s drives went like this: field goal, punt, interception, punt, field goal, punt, punt, punt. The Buccaneers had FIVE three-and-outs in the first three quarters.

6. What—if anything—should we make of the Pittsburgh debacle?



Pittsburgh turned the ball over seven times. I would be surprised if the Steelers turned the ball over that may times ever again in the Roethlisberger era. The entire offense looked out of synch (exhibit A: when Mendenhall got crushed by Ngata just as he was receiving the hand-off and fumbled the ball) and the defense couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback, couldn’t tackle, and couldn’t stop the run. How many times do you hear that about a Pittsburgh defense…especially this particular one? Baltimore certainly seemed more prepared and focused, but this type of visceral defeat won’t happen to the 2011 Steelers again.

7. Cramps, cramps, and more cramps…

By my completely unofficial count these are the players I noticed suffering from cramps: Jared Allen, Josh Freeman, Dez Bryant, Darelle Revis, Vontae Davis, Sean Smith, and Brandon Marshall. Shortened offseason, anyone?

8. Why the Falcons shouldn’t be worried…

Let’s play a little game: which team—either the Falcons or Bears—got the most first downs on Sunday, ran more plays, gained more total yards, and ran for more yards? It wasn’t the Bears. Atlanta moved the ball well (only two three-and-outs, and three drives of ten plays or longer), but was crushed by turnovers and a huge defensive touchdown by Brian Urlacher. Thanks to a 13 point deficit by the half and an insurmountable 24-point hole heading into the final period, Atlanta was forced to throw the ball for much of the game. That’s a shame considering Michael Turner gained 100 yards on the ground on only ten carries. Chicago certainly made the big plays to win, but just like Pittsburgh, Atlanta’s mistakes were correctable.

Week 1 Picks

It has been eight months since year one of the weekend pick em’ column finished up. Now, after a lockout, a gut-wrenching postseason that saw my beloved Patriots lose to their arch-rivals, and a furiously fast offseason we’re back in action. This year, it’s gonna’ be better than ever. Rather than attempting to discern the exact score of every game (about as likely as Gisele Bundchen walking through my front door) I’m moving to a more gambler friendly format. I’m predicting games against the spread not because I’m a degenerate gambler, but because it’s more challenging than simply picking the winners every Sunday. If you have no idea how the ‘spread’ or ‘odds’ work click HERE.

One last note: week one is always HIGHLY unpredictable. Every year we get at least one crap-your-pants shocker. Last season it was the Colts losing to the Texans by double digits and San Francisco losing to Seattle by 25 points. You really can’t call these things correctly unless you simply go through the list and pick every winner randomly. Therefore, I like to stick to my guns, wait it out, and see what happens. I go with the teams I simply think are better. It's not until week four that we can get a real feel for the NFL landscape.

Atlanta Falcons -6.5 @ Chicago Bears

If Atlanta fancies themselves Super Bowl contenders they need to take care of business against the decidedly mediocre Chicago Bears. This one has trap game written all over it, but I’m being a good degenerate NFL fan and sticking to the squad I like better. That would be the Falcons.

What to watch: Julio Jones. He’s been off to a fast start by all accounts, but how does he acclimate to real, game-time pro football? Atlanta traded most of their 2011 draft, and reportedly sold the rights to Matt Ryan’s unborn child for the wideout, so they need him to break the mold of recent rookie wide receivers and put up big numbers immediately.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns -3



Andy Dalton vs. Colt McCoy—the matchup you’ve all been waiting for, live on CBS! Combine a shortened offseason program, a rookie quarterback passing to a rookie wideout, a sophomore quarterback passing to no one, two semi-strong running games, and this one has 7-3 written all over it.

What to watch: Peyton Hillis if you hit the bong before your fantasy draft and took him higher than the fourth round. But for the rest of us, the Andy Dalton-A.J Green combo. Both are rookies, both are highly touted, and both are playing positions that are historically quite unfriendly to rookies.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs -6

Kansas City certainly looks mediocre, but they can’t blow a home game against the Bills, right? Wait, can they? CAN THEY? They probably can…but first let me throw a stat at you. Buffalo was last year’s 31st best rushing defense. Kansas City owned the league’s 9th best rushing attack. Buffalo drafted unreasonably large Marcell Dareus with the third pick in the draft to put next to pro-bowl defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Their run defense should be better, but not good enough to stop one of the game’s better rushing attacks.

What to watch: An uninteresting game to put it mildly, but I would like to see my ‘Kansas City will suck’ theory put to the test. It’s not likely to happen this week as the Bills are even awful-er, but if it does, oh boy…

Philadelphia Eagles -2 @ St. Louis Rams

Remember the whole ‘sticking to your guns in week 1’ theory? That’s being tested right now. Philadelphia hasn’t figured out how to integrate all their pieces and looked really messy throughout the preseason. The offensive line and linebackers in particular, looked shaky. And now they’re on the road, against a possible playoff squad that can rush the passer. Not to beat a dead horse, but I’m going with the more talented squad—on paper at least.

What to watch: A few things I’m interested in. First, I would like to see how far Sam Bradford has progressed since his rookie campaign. Second, of course, I’d like to see if the Eagles actually look like a team. I’m particularly interested in that defense, and how Asante Samuel (a zone corner who likes to jump passing routes) and Nnamdi (a prototypical man coverage corner) play together.

Detroit Lions +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Where can I lay odds on all 300 pounds of Gerald McCoy landing on Matt Stafford and injuring his shoulder? There’s got to be somewhere, right?

Although I’m not completely sold on Detroit as the next team to crash the party, I strongly believe that the Buc’s are in line to take a step back. Not only did they catch some good breaks last year; but I haven’t liked the vibes emanating from Tampa Bay. I can smell their complacency from 600 miles away.

What to watch: Matthew Stafford. Detroit’s season rests on his shoulders. A fantastic preseason has set the bar way, way too high and I’m not sure Stafford can meet it. I’d like to see if he can.

Tennessee Titans +6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I really think this is going to be an ugly season in Jacksonville. If their games were being blacked out when they were in the thick of the playoff hunt last year, what’s going to happen when they’re 2-8 come November? Anytime you can waive David Garrard for Luke McCown you HAVE to do it!

What to watch: How does Matt Hasselbeck look after having no more than a month to learn a new offense and develop a repertoire with his receivers? Tennessee’s season looks a whole lot less hopeful with Jake Locker under center rather than Hasselbeck…

Pittsburgh Titans +1 @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is getting way too much respect against Pittsburgh—even if they are at home. Their offense is going to be bad people, really bad. These contests are always brutal—that’s why I’m giving Pittsburgh only a point—but I see the Steelers running away with the division this year. Baltimore’s thrown together offensive line doesn’t have a prayer against the Steeler’s pass rush. Anytime you have to call an offensive line ‘thrown together’ you should be weary.

What to watch: Keep a lookout for any signs of the Super Bowl-losers hangover. I’m keeping this line low out of respect, but really, the Steeler’s better talent dictates something like a 24-13 victory.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans -10

This one needs little explanation. If Houston loses this, I’m ditching the bandwagon and driving it into the Gulf of Mexico. Is their season over if they lose to the Manning-less Colts week one?

What to watch: If you didn’t fully appreciate Peyton Manning before, behold the Indianapolis offense without ‘the professor’ under center.

New York Giants @ Washington +3



The vibes coming out of New York are a little too similar to the 10’ Redskins for my taste. Players are unhappy with their contracts, Manning’s security blanket receiver Steve Smith is gone, Plaxico Burress continues to haunt the team off the field, and a recent rash of injuries has all jeopardized New York’s playoff hopes. If Sexy Rexy can hold the fort for a season, there is a chance the Giants could slip all the way to fourth place in the division. In short, Washington is catching Big Blue at exactly the right time.

What to watch: Grossman’s stats have always been ugly. His career year was average, but if he can play at a competent level Washington has a chance to be in the playoff hunt come December. Sunday is our first opportunity to see Grossman at work.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49er’s -6

Tarvaris Jackson vs. Alex Smith…not exactly the Brady-Manning bowl. This one will come down to which quarterback screws up the least, and for some reason, I find myself gravitating towards Alex Smith. That’s probably not a good thing.

What to watch: You probably shouldn’t, but if you do, let me know if Jackson is a competent quarterback. According to the Seattle Media, he’s Captain Composure.

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers -10

Slow starts: the beat the Chargers have marched to for three years. It’s concerning, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for the third straight season.

San Diego should annihilate the Vikings. They’ve got better players at every position but running back, and Minnesota’s second best player—defensive tackle Kevin Williams—is out serving a suspension.

What to watch: San Diego’s offense. Is Ryan Mathews as good as he’s looked through the preseason; is Vincent Jackson primed to have a huge year; does the unit look like it’s clicking? All questions I want answers to.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals -6

I touted the Cardinals in my season preview (which you can read HERE). If they lose to the Panthers I might need to wear a bag over my head for the season. This one might look like a crap-fest but I’ve got WAY too much riding on Kevin Kolb being a competent quarterback. I think he will be, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t lost a considerable amount of sleep over it.

What to watch: This one should be pretty obvious: Kevin Kolb! Is he Johnny Unitas reincarnate or Derek Anderson 2.0? I think he’ll fall somewhere in between—maybe a destitute man’s Drew Brees. We shall see on Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets -4

An intriguing matchup if it weren't for the surreal number of injuries Dallas has sustained over the past week. Rookie tackle Tyron Smith is out, starting corner Terrence Newman is out, and corner Mike Jenkins is questionable. Mark Sanchez may actually be able to complete some passes. Oh, and did I mention that the Jets have added motivation thanks to the comments Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan made about his brother’s foot fiasco? Remember the last time someone made fun of his foot fetish? That didn’t end too well.

What to watch: The quarterbacks. Is Tony Romo his old 4000-yard passing self? My fantasy team sure hopes so. Is Mark Sanchez the same old Mark Sanchez, or did his summer photo shoot for GQ leave him a changed man?

New England Patriots -9 @ Miami Dolphins

Miami’s defense remains strong, but their offense actually got worse this offseason. They went from a Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams backfield to Reggie Bush and the ill-favored Daniel Thomas. Thomas is questionable for Sunday and Reggie Bush is still Reggie Bush—meaning he likes to dance, is a decent receiving threat out of the backfield, and probably can’t carry the rock 20+ times a game (As an aside, I purposely avoided the obvious Kim Kardashian joke. You're welcome) . It’s always concerning when an offense doesn’t have a real strength, and the Dolphins certainly do not.

What to watch: Nate Solder and the Patriot’s offensive line. Sebastian Vollmer hasn’t practiced in a week thanks to a back injury, so it looks like Nate Solder will be thrown into the fire week one. It’s not necessarily a bad thing as Solder looked good throughout the preseason, but rushing the passer is one of Miami’s greatest strengths. Cameron Wake had 14 sacks last season. If New England experiences a pass-blocking disaster akin to what we’ll call ‘Ndamukong-gate’, Miami has a shot in the dark.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos -2.5

I think Denver will be much improved this season. Maybe not 8-8 improved, but they should be entertaining at the very least. Kyle Orton is competent under center and John Fox should bring some order to the chaos left by Josh McDaniels.

Oakland, on the other hand, continues to be Oakland.

What to watch: The Von Miller-Elvis Dumervil combo, which has a chance to become really impressive.

And check out Von Miller, that man has style.



Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals OVER Carolina Panthers

Upset of the Week: Washington Redskins OVER New York Giants

Pounding of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Miami Dolphins