Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals (32-20)
John Skelton didn’t exactly conjure up any memories of Kurt Warner last Sunday against Carolina but Larry Fitzgerald did manage to excite despondent fantasy owners across the country as he caught nine balls for 125 yards. Considering how awful Dallas’s secondary is a repeat performance may be in order…assuming Skelty’ boy doesn’t spend the majority of his time under 260 pound DeMarcus Ware. Truth is though, Arizona just lost to the Panthers, and our friend Skelton was out dueled by a certain Jimmy Clausen…how can you come back from that? Truth is: you can’t, because there’s nothing to come back from; Arizona’s season is about as lifeless as Al Davis’s rotting corpse.
New England Patriots @ Buffalo Bills (41-21)
I wrote it in my power rankings and I’ll write it again: The Patriots were PISSED after that poor showing in Green Bay and are treating it like a loss. Everyone knows what happens when the Patriots come off a poor showing: all guns ablazing’. Take their loss against Cleveland for example; the next week they visited Pittsburgh and whupped them 39-26…and the Buffalo Bills aren’t exactly the Pittsburgh Steelers. I see no conceivable way this isn’t a blowout…
New York Jets @ Chicago Bears (20-6)
After a mid-week scare over Mark Sanchez’s ability to play (shoulder) it looks like he’s pretty much a lock to start. After a mid-week report about Rex Ryan’s foot fetish it looks like it’s pretty much a lock that he’ll wear a brown paper bag over his head. Okay, my first and last bad Rex Ryan joke…and that’s a promise.
Rex and his defense aren’t as dominant as it was last year, but you could catch whiffs of that against the Steelers. Most of the problem is due to an inability to create pressure…something that shouldn’t be a problem against the Bear’s less-than-mediocre offensive line. I really think the Jet’s defense can wreak havoc on the Bear’s offense; akin to what the Giants did to them week four.
I trust Mark Sanchez less than I would trust Rex Ryan with my wife’s feet (if I had one) but I can smell an apocalyptic Jay Cutler performance that will propel the Jet’s to their second in a row. GULP.
Baltimore Ravens @ Cleveland Browns (28-10)
Peyton Hillis had a genuine virtuoso evisceration performance against the Ravens week three as he ran for 144 yards on 22 carries and a touchdown on the way to a close loss. Do they let that happen again? Well, defensive captain Ray Lewis had this to say: “a blind cat will find a meal every once in a while” in reference to Hillis’s breakout performance. So Ray Lewis is pissed, and a pissed off Ray Lewis is not a good guy to have to run towards, and threw. The (pretty obvious) key for the Browns is how successful quarterback Colt McCoy is. To beat the suddenly hot Ravens he’ll need to be a little better than efficient, something we haven’t seen from him yet.
Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs (24-13)
The Titans rebounded last week and shellacked a Houston Texans team playing about as lifelessly as the husk of Randy Moss (I promise, no more Randy Moss jokes henceforth). Which equates to the New York Yankees winning the Little League World Series...can you see where I’m going with this? The Chiefs are undefeated at home with the league’s best rushing attack facing the 17th best run defense. In other words, this set’s up perfectly for a Kansas City victory, and maybe, a division title. Oh, and Chief’s HB Jamaal Charles has compiled 1,303 rushing yards on a mere 203 attempts…good for a 6.4 average. Is it just me or is Charles a better version of Chris Johnson, and the best back in the league?
San Francisco 49ers @ St. Louis Rams (20-7)
Reasons that the 49ers are bad: Their quarterback pool consists of Troy Smith and Alex Smith. They have no running game now that Frank Gore is done for the season. They have the 17th worst scoring defense in the NFL. The offensive line has given up 38 sacks: 27th in the league. Alex Smith is the starting quarterback. The starting quarterback is Alex Smith. Alex Smith=starting quarterback.
Reasons that the Rams are bad: Sam Bradford averages less than six yards per pass. The offensive line has given up 30 sacks: 14th in NFL. They’re 18th in the league in third down conversions. They’re leading rusher Steven Jackson averages less than four yards per rush.
I’ll take the Rams for the following three reasons: they’re a different team at home; Sam Bradford is to Alex Smith what New York City is to Fallujah, and my “naughty list” for the 49ers is a tad longer than it is for the Rams.
Detroit Lions @ Miami Dolphins (17-13)
Miami’s the most zigzag team in the league. Seriously: Since their bye week in week five Miami hasn’t won or lost two in a row. They just had a zag against the Bills; shouldn’t they be due for a zig against the mediocre Lions? Sadly, that’s all I got…
Washington Redskins @ Jacksonville Jaguars (30-27)
I wrote the following in my picks last week: “Here’s to hoping Rex Grossman doesn’t confuse himself for Dan Marino”. Well America, it nearly happened. His stat line: 322 yards on 43 attempts with four thrown touchdowns and two interceptions.
My exact reaction, to a tee. Thankfully, we got the best of Rex and the worst of Rex against the Cowboys. A couple sweet passes and reads intermixed with some wildly inaccurate tosses and laughable interceptions. All that was against the Cowboy’s moribund secondary, which means we probably saw the best Grossman has to offer. Fortunately for the Skins, the Jaguars secondary is about as bad as the Cowboys (Cowboy’s: 28th ranked pass defense, Redskins: 30th ranked pass defense). In addition, the Jags will most likely be without star back’ Maurice Jones-Drew (doubtful for Sunday) who functions as THE key cog to their offense. Without him the Jags will be forced to pass, pass, and pass…which all adds up, in my book, to a potential upset.
Indianapolis Colts @ Oakland Raiders (30-17)
I thought the Jags would pound the hell out of Indianapolis on the ground, control the clock, and make the plays to win it. Unfortunately for me, Maurice Jones-Drew managed a “herculean” 46 yards on the ground against the 28th worst run defense in football. Jones-Drew has been dealing with knee troubles all season and is out against the Redskins…could his poor effort be a product of injury rather than an improved Colts run defense? I think that’s a distinct possibility; if you watched him run you could see that he lacked explosiveness. In addition, the Colts built up a quick lead which forced Garrard to have to throw a lot…something I see happening again in Oakland.
Colts go up big fast, force the Raiders to throw, and take the running game right out of it. Fact is, don’t bet against Peyton Manning when he’s fighting for a playoff spot. If you’re still not convinced, who would you go with: Jason Campbell or Peyton Manning?
Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos (34-16)
Good God, this is a 4 o’clock game. Can they flex this to, uhhhh, maybe never? A wonderful chess match between the outmatched Studesville who looks like he wants to get the hell out of dodge and the outmatched Kubiak who once gave the game ball to a player who was ejected mid-game for fighting. And that was my glass half full take. I’m tempted to take Denver because who knows how much damage Tim Tebow can wreak on a poor defense but unfortunately for the Broncos their defense is even worse. The trio of Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson, and Arian Foster should be able to tear it to pieces.
UPDATE: It doesn't look Andre Johnson will play, which of course is a big blow to the Texans. Regardless, I still like the Texans in this one...as long as they can play like they care, for once.
San Diego Chargers @ Cincinnati Bengals (38-20)
Carson Palmer vs. Philip Rivers. Need I say more? San Diego has been good all year…minus their special teams. But as of late that much maligned unit has vaulted out of “worst ever status” into really, really, really bad (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2010/week-15-dvoa-ratings. 5th paragraph) and hasn’t had any cataclysmic screw-ups over the past couple weeks. Unfortunately for the Bengals, the only way they win is if the Chargers have several of those cataclysmic special teams’ screw-ups. If so, look for this:
New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers (23-20)
The Giants are a comedy of errors. Their defense can win games as much as they lose them. They can get seven sacks through three quarters than give the quarterback all day in the fourth. Eli can propel the offense to 30 points than go three and out in the most important drives of the game. And their special teams, well, they’re bad all the time. Long story short, New York can’t string together a solid sixty minute performance. And that is why the Giants can be so hard to call…it looks like they can win a contest on paper, but in reality, they’ll end up giving the game away.
Green Bay has a bunch of quick, good after the catch wideouts…precisely the type that has repeatedly burned the slow Giant’s secondary. With Aaron Rodgers back under center New York will have trouble containing the Packer’s prolific offense.
The big “if” in this contest is how the Giants bounce back from their stomach punch loss to the Eagles. The defeat might have broken them or it may have made them stronger. The answer to that question will determine the outcome of this game, and their season.
Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (19-10)
Josh Freeman looks to rebound from a mediocre performance while Matt Hasselbeck strives to turn around his mediocre season. Although you might not realize it at first glance (why would you want to?) Seattle has a very real shot at winning the division while Tampa Bay still has a chance at a wildcard berth…albeit a slim one. Tampa Bay will win because: The Hawks’ are atrocious on the road (2-4), LaGarret Blount will pound Seattle’s poor run defense, and did I mention Seattle has to travel 5,000 miles across the country? They don’t do that very well…
Minnesota Vikings @ Philadelphia Eagles (31-13)
Once upon a time (last year) you could say with confidence that Minnesota’s front four would make any quarterback’s life miserable. They sure make a quarterback’s life miserable, only it’s their own, as the offense is forced to come back from huge deficits. Not something a certain middle-aged passer and a 24 year old no-name are capable of. Compounding the Viking’s woes is the fact they’re not at home, where the defense tends to play slightly better. One last problem the Vike’s face: a red hot Eagles team that has stolen the moniker “Greatest show on turf” from the 1999-2000 Rams. Fueled by “The Meadowlands Miracle Part II” and the scrambling, cannon armed Michael Vick no one, not even this guy:
New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons (30-24)
Ray Rice eviscerated New Orleans defense last week to the tune of 153 yards on 31 carries…Joe Flacco only had to throw 20 passes. What’s to think Atlanta can’t apply the same formula with the duo of Michael Turner and Jason Snelling (Turner ran for 114 yards in the first meeting)? Oh, and that guy Matt Ryan is pretty damn good at home… (19-1).
The Saints defense lives off of getting turnovers; their not-so-dirty-secret-anymore is that the D isn’t that great. I proclaimed before New Orleans lost to Baltimore that they might be the best team in the NFC…I think I was wrong. Not only is their defense pretty average but with Drew Brees’s 19 interceptions and Reggie Bush’s disappearance the offense isn’t good enough to balance it out. Atlanta is due for a stinker (like the patriots had last week) but I doubt it happens against their division rivals.
Last Week: 8-8
Overall: 126-82
Lock of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER New Orleans Saints
Upset of the Week: Washington Redskins OVER Jacksonville Jaguars
Pounding of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Buffalo Bills
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