Week 10 Picks

Baltimore Ravens @ Atlanta Falcons (27-21)

What to make of this game? Since this is a Thursday night game, both squads are coming off short weeks of practice. These teams would seem to match up well together, with both possessing solid passing games backed up by strong rushing attacks while one team has a great pass defense (Baltimore) along with sub-bar rushing defense and the other (Atlanta) has a very strong rush defense along with a bad pass defense. I worry about Atlanta because the only other top-flight team they beat was the Saints (and they won only because of two botched chip-shot field goals). Sure, they beat Tampa Bay but no one would argue they’re on the same level as the Ravens. I’ll go with Baltimore based on the fact they should be able to throw well and there affinity for getting take-aways at the most opportune times (you can thank Ed Reed for that).

Detroit Lions @ Buffalo Bills (31-24)

I was 65% sure the Bills would get there first win against the Bears; I’m 85% sure they’ll get it against Detroit. Detroit is a frisky team, but let’s face it, there completely different when Mathew Stafford isn’t under center. And with Sean Hill not returning for a couple weeks, Drew Stanton will be starting at Quarterback…that’s bad.

Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears (24-3)

Just in case Brad Childress happens to read my blog, here’s his game plan to beat the Bears. It goes like this: Blitz Jay Cutler, send pass rushers after Jay Cutler, attack the offensive line, swarm the line of scrimmage. It’s not that hard, and if Jared Allen doesn’t get at least two sacks in the game I’ll have to start wondering if it’s really Jared Allen.

New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns (20-14)

After Rex Ryan did this: http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/blog/shutdown_corner/post/Picture-Jets-coach-Rex-Ryan-dresses-up-like-his?urn=nfl-284222 I don’t know what to think anymore. For all of Rex Ryan’s failings you have to admit, he’s a pretty funny guy. Now, to ride or not to ride the Brown’s bandwagon (never in a million years did I think I would ever say that)? After two stunning performances against both the Saints and the Patriots it’s hard to imagine why it couldn’t happen again. But Cleveland winning three straight?-preposterous. After two very subpar performances in a row I think the Jets will finally put together a complete game. As much as I would enjoys a Jets loss I just don’t see it happening.

Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins (20-13)

At 4-4 Miami is in a rough place…another loss means they need to run the table the rest of the way; an unlikely situation especially with the way QB Chad Henne is playing. Last week I bought into the “must win game” corollary in thinking Miami would beat Baltimore…we all saw how that prediction worked. With that said I’m officially off the Dolphin’s bandwagon…Chad Henne just isn’t good enough. Meanwhile I’m a believer in the Titans, coming off the bye week with the recent acquisition of Randy Moss. I think Chris Johnson will have a great day going up against a middling rush defense along with Randy Moss taking a defender out of the box.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Indianapolis Colts (27-14)

The Bengals continue to excel in garbage time while the TOcho show continues to be unwatchable…two constants of the 2010 season. Meanwhile Peyton Manning keeps playing at an MVP level while throwing to wideouts who probably never thought they would get a chance to catch a pass in the NFL…never mind passes from Manning. This matchup is the perfect elixir for what ails the Colts…look for Peyton Manning to put up big numbers against a struggling defense and Carson Palmer to once again suck until he’s down by 20…

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars (38-31)

At least coach Kubiak has a vote of confidence from owner Bob McNair (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2010/11/09/texans-owner-says-gary-kubiak-is-doing-a-good-job/) because he doesn’t from just about anywhere else. Another case of a talented team underachieving because they play soft and suffer from questionable decision making…two things you can blame on the coach.

Meanwhile, nobody knows when the Jaguars will show up to play; they’re one of the most inconsistent teams in the league. Considering they blew out the Cowboys last week they seem due to put up a stinker. Houston should be able to put up a ton of points on their defense…but this one could come down to who has the ball last.

Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (24-10)

Could someone remind the Panther’s they had the best rushing attack in the league last year?...thanks. Talk about a negative turnaround, Carolina is 26th in rushing yards per game this season. Tampa Bay is simply a better all-around team…especially at home. I see no conceivable reason to think Carolina even has a chance in this game.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos (16-10)

I still feel like Denver is going to surprise the football world sometime in the coming weeks…with the explosive passing game they’ve got I think they’re frisky. Could this be the week? I think it’s definitely in play, but I may be too scarred from my botched upset picks from last Sunday. Still, Kansas City should be able to run all over the Broncos with Jamaal Charles and Thomas Jones. Expect them to win the time of position battle handily and contain Denver in the red zone.

Seattle Seahawks @ Arizona Cardinals (16-6)

Charlie Whitehurst will be starting this game, and Seattle is on the road…need I say more?

UPDATE: Matt Hasselbeck is healthy enough to get the start...but the Seahawks are still terrible on the road, and the Cardinals have played decent as of late...still like the Cards'.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Giants (34-17)

It’s the Dallas Cowboys…need I say more?

St. Louis Rams @ San Francisco 49ers (17-13)

It seems like quarterback Troy Smith has given the 49er’s a shot in the arm…let’s hope Mike Singletary doesn’t botch this one and start Alex Smith instead. St. Louis has a middling defense (especially against the pass) which could bode well for San Fran’s offense. Another point to consider is St. Louis’s struggles on the road for the season where it hasn’t won a game yet. I don’t think their first road win will come this week either as the 49ers are playing better (and harder) as of late…and with Troy Smith under center anything is possible (I say that only with a touch of sarcasm).

New England Patriots @ Pittsburgh Steelers

I’m a huge homer, that fact has become apparent I’m sure. But I looked at this game as objectively as possible and I think both teams have an equal chance of pulling out the W. The Steelers offense has been sluggish all season, and they don’t seem fully acclimated to Ben Roethlisberger just yet. With several critical injuries across the O-line it seems big Ben is a bit vulnerable. If the Pats can generate a pass rush Sunday, and key on the run as well as they have all season (let’s hope Cleveland was an aberration) they have a great chance of winning. Meanwhile, the Pat’s offense has also struggled lately with wideouts seemingly unable to get open and the running game being stymied. With how great the Steeler’s D has been it will be a match-up to watch. Logic says go with the home team, but I like New England coming off an embarrassing defeat to the Browns.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins (28-17)

Vick is playing too well right now, and Philadelphia’s offense is too explosive for a Washington defense that is ranked 20th against the pass. There also seems to be some friction in Washington’s locker room which never bodes well for a team. I wouldn’t be surprised if this was a blowout…

Overall: 68-46

Last Weeks: 7-6

Upset of the week: Buffalo Bills OVER Detroit Lions (yes, that would be an upset)

Lock of the week: Minnesota Vikings OVER Chicago Bears

Pounding of the week: New York Giants OVER Dallas Cowboys