The Morning After

1. RUSTYYYYY SMITH!!!

I don’t mean to pick on the guy, but really, the Titans are screwed. Rusty Smith is not a good quarterback, to put it nicely. He routinely overthrew, underthrew, and sideways threw his targets. A couple times, I wondered who he was throwing to. Come on Rustyyyy! You’re the leading passer in Florida Atlantic history; surely you can do better than that!

And to the Titans coaching staff: You give Chris Johnson seven touches on the ground? When you’re starting a rookie sixth round pick at quarterback...why? I can understand that you were chomping at the bit after watching film of one of the worst pass defenses in recent memory…you talked yourself into the Rusty era, you thought your sixth round rookie quarterback was > than Houston’s pass “defense”. But you have Chris Johnson on your team; the guy who ran for over 2,000 yards last season. Give him the damn ball.


2. A whole lot of the Manning face…

Last night’s game was surreal. It’s not often you see Peyton Manning look so uncomfortable in the pocket…even rattled. Mad props to Chris Collinsworth and company for showing those great close-ups of Manning’s face in the pocket. If you didn’t have the pleasure of seeing the pictures suffice to know Peyton was flinching at the slightest hint of pressure. He was flustered.

Some thoughts on the Colts: this looks to be a 2009 Patriots type of season for them. They’re beat up as hell (to put it mildly) and are in dire need of a solid influx of young talent. Let’s face it; some of their most recent acquisitions aren’t quite working out. Donald Brown isn’t panning out like they thought, Anthony Gonzalez can’t stay on the field, and Pierre Garcon just hasn’t earned Manning’s trust. Take a lesson from the Pat’s: a tremendous draft can cure all ills (and a little bit of health of course).

3. Vick is mortal…

I wrote all about Vick last week, and that the Giants may have laid out the blue-print on how to stop him. I guess the Bears are either avid readers of my columns or hit the game film pretty hard (I’ll lean towards the later, but only slightly). But Vick still had a decent game, in fact his one interception game from a nice tipped pass by the defense rather than a bad read or poorly thrown ball. The real issue was how Chicago gashed Philadelphia’s defense. Vick and friends did enough offensively to win the ball game, it was the defense that let them down.

Chicago gained 3.9 more yards per pass attempt, and 1.1 more yards per offensive play. Matt Forte had a 61 yard run while averaging 8.4 yards per rush. Three Chicago receivers averaged over 22 yards per catch and each caught a pass of at least thirty yards. The Eagles got destroyed by the big play to put it simply. Philadelphia controlled the game in many ways: six more first downs, fifty more total yards of offense, and won the time of possession battle by almost four minutes. But once again, The Eagles inability to contain Chicago’s offense (which has been mediocre at best) was their death sentence. They’re in trouble if they don’t address that, and fast.

One last note about Philly, if you can stand it. Andy Reid once again showed his skill at game/time management…and by skill I mean good god he’s terrible. Eagles down 31-13 with fourth and goal at the Bear’s four yard line, andddd field goal. I suppose you could argue that it cuts it down to a two score game but with only 13 minutes left in the game, and Chicago’s offense on a roll all day, you have to take the chance. Second instance: Eight minutes left in the game, down by 15, fourth and goal at the 18. I know, that’s a terrible situation. 18 yards to go for a score, no chance of a first down. But you have to go for it right? All a field goal does is cut the deficit down to 12; which means the bird’s still needed two touchdowns…not much better than the situation they were in beforehand. The lesson here as always: Andy Reid sucks at game management.



4. Atlanta doing it “The Patriot way”…

For those among you that dislike the Patriots this isn’t a 200 word slobber fest over New England…merely an observation that Atlanta is winning games like the Patriots of old did. They aren’t dominating, aren’t running up the score, nor are they ranked in the top eight of total defense or offense according to http://www.nfl.com/. They just beat everyone…and play their best in crunch time. Matt Ryan is the anti-Carson Palmer: when the game gets close he gets better. They’ll likely get home field advantage through-out the playoffs, which means they are a dangerous team.



5. The Chiefs are…

…I don’t know. We all know they’re decent, what I can’t figure out is if they are great or just “easy out in the playoffs” material. Let’s do a John Hollinger-esque breakdown of this.

What the Chiefs do well:

1. Run the ball: lead the league in total rushing yards: 1,917. Tied for second in rushing yards per attempt: 4.9. Tied for third in 20+ yard runs and 5th in 40+ yards. Tied for fourth with ten rushing touchdowns.

2. Surprisingly, pass the ball: Matt Cassel is having a terrific year with 2,307 pass yards, 22 touchdowns along with only 4 picks, 7.1 yards per attempt average, and 60.4 completion percentage. Also, Dwyane Bowe is having a ridiculous season with 14 touchdown receptions…and counting. They’re not putting up monster yardage numbers but it’s been efficient and relatively mistake free.

3. Stop the run: Holding opponents to 96.5 rushing yards per game; good for seventh in the league. They’ve done it against some pretty good backs to, holding Peyton Hillis to 35 yards, Frank Gore to 43, Arian Foster to 71, and Maurice Jones-Drew to 47.

4. Stop opponents on third down: Holding them to a 35.7 conversion rate; good for 13th.

5. Beating the NFC west: outscored them by 104 to 47. Oh wait, everyone does that well…

What the Chiefs don’t do well:

1. Defend the pass: Given up 2,711 yards to passers and a 19 to 8 touchdown to interception ratio.

2. Force turnovers: Tied for 17th with nine interceptions, and tied for seventh with 16 forced fumbles. Although it’s not terrible, it’s not very good either.

3. Convert on third down: Tied for 16th in the league while converting 37.8 of their third down attempts.

4. Sack the quarterback: Tied for 16th in the league with 22 quarterback sacks.

So they pass the ball efficiently, run it better than anyone, stop the run, and don’t allow opponents to convert a high percentage of their third down attempts. On the flip side they’re pedestrian at defending the pass, don’t force many turnovers, very middling on third down, and don’t get after the quarterback very well.

They are most definitely the beneficiary of a cream puff schedule with the combined record of teams they’ve played: 48-71 and the combined record of teams they will play: 24-31.

So what to make of them? They can run the ball against anybody with the best one-two punch in the game, and they’re great at stopping the run. Their passing attack has been awesome, but the average ranking of pass defenses they’ve played? 18th, with only 2 in the top 5. We won’t know how “for real” their aerial assault is until they play the San Diego again in week 14. In fact, we won’t be able to really determine this team’s ceiling until that game which will be KC’s first true test since Indianapolis in week 4.

Until I see the Chiefs put together a complete game against a contender I can’t help but feel they will be an easy out in the post season, if in fact, they get in. Monster numbers against crappy teams, do not a good team make…



Deciphering the 2010 playoff picture

Parity has been the word that has defined this most recent of NFL seasons, and you, readers like myself, will probably vomit if you have to read that word again. Still, the playoff picture is as foggy now as my comma and semi-colon use has ever been. It seems like a crap shoot to pinpoint the contenders and pretenders but I belong to the ultra top secret fraternity of sports writers, and that’s what we do. So here goes:

AFC East

1a. New York Jets 1b. New England Patriots (both 9-2)

Really, these two teams are so close right now it’s impossible to predict who takes the east. Fortunately, they play each other next Monday night, in what will likely be the marquee matchup of the season. Whoever wins that game has the inside track to the division title, and likely, the first seed in the AFC playoffs.

AFC South

Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

This is a close race, with Jacksonville leading Indy by a half game and the Texans at 5-6 not completely out of it. Despite how bad the Colts looked last night against the Chargers I won’t give up on them. Even with all the injuries they remain a better team than the Jaguars, and with one game left against the Jags they control their own destiny. A light schedule the rest of the way (two games against Tennessee) certainly helps their cause and once Austin Collie returns (assuming he does) the passing game will start clicking.

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens (8-3)

Like the AFC East this one will come down to next week’s heavy weight fight between the Ravens and Steelers (crap, did I write this a week to early?). As of now, Baltimore boasts the better team…thanks to greater consistency and an offense that is firing on all cylinders. I don’t know that Pittsburgh can contend with such a disparate offensive line (They gave up five sacks against the Bills and Guard Chris Kemoeatu was called for four holding penalties).

AFC West

San Diego Chargers (6-5)

The Chargers have an easy schedule the rest of the way except for a key battle against the Chiefs. Kansas City has an easy schedule the rest of the way except for a key battle against the Chargers. Get the picture? Whoever wins that game likely gets the crown…I give the edge to the Chargers because I trust Philip Rivers roughly 5,948 times more than Matt Cassel and they seem to have ironed out their recent problems. Plus, Gates and V-Jax should be back to full health right around the end of the season. They’re peaking at the perfect time.

Wildcards

1a. New York Jets 1b. New England Patriots (9-2)

See above

Kansas City Chiefs (7-4)

Surprise, surprise! How could I not put Pittsburgh here? Simple, they have three tough games upcoming: Baltimore, New York Jets, and Cleveland Browns. The Chiefs have one: San Diego Chargers. As crazy as it sounds I think the Chiefs have a better chance to grab that last spot in the postseason.

NFC East

Philadelphia Eagles (7-4)

The Giants haven’t looked good in three weeks, while the Eagles just hit a road block in Chicago. Both have similar schedules down the stretch with a boatload of games against the NFC east yet to be played. If you watched Philly Sunday you would know they would have beaten the Bears if they could score in the red zone…something I think they can correct. I give them a mulligan against Chicago and believe they can win out the rest of the season.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons (9-2)

Cream puff schedule the rest of the way (two games against Carolina plus one against Seattle) means they should go at least 12-4. They’ve had two tests the past two weeks: win a tough game on the road against a decent team and win a title fight against the Packers. They passed both. They have three road games in a row upcoming; if they can past this final test they should capture the division crown and win home field advantage throughout the postseason.

NFC North

Green Bay Packers (7-4)

Chicago has a crazy tough schedule the rest of the way: home against New England, at Minnesota, home against the Jets, then on the road against Green Bay. Their only reprieve comes against Detroit, which can be a decent team when it wants to be. Green Bay’s schedule isn’t quite as tough (at New England, then home against the Giants and Bears) which is why I give them the edge. I continue to hate Chicago and they continue to prove me wrong so this should be an interesting one.

NFC West

St. Louis Rams (5-6)

This seems to be a two man race for the crappiest division in football crown, with St. Louis having the edge. None of the teams are great, but the Ram’s own Sam Bradford has been awesome as of late so I’ll take the team with the hottest Quarterback.

Wildcards

New Orleans Saints (8-3)

Rounding into form just in time (although that almost-collapse against Dallas was worrying) with some injured players returning. A 100% Reggie Bush would go a long way to improving the offense and despite the bump against Dallas the defense has played outstanding. They have all the makings of a playoff-caliber team.

Chicago Bears (8-3)

I’m staying away from this team like I would avoid rotten milk. Their defense has returned to the 2006 level, and when the offense plays mistake free they are hard to beat. But it’s hard to say which Bears offense will show up: the one where Cutler throws three picks and gets sacked eight times or the one with huge explosive plays and the deadly return game? Tough to say, but they’ve clawed their way to an 8-3 record which gives them the edge over the Giants for the last wildcard spot.