Wait, I’m leading this column with the Bengals? THE BENGALS? Yes, yes I am. Their future is that exciting following a miserable 2010-2011 season. After the draft I thought it was (obviously) very important for one of their top two picks (Wideout A.J Green and Quarterback Andy Dalton) to pan out. That’s not rocket science, I realize this, but I also privately considered the future of the organization if BOTH of them were keepers. The Bengals aren’t exactly the model franchise; as owner Mike Brown is a money grubbing contrarian who is against progress in all forms, but the fans deserve better than what they’ve been treated to for the past decade. In Dalton and Green, Cincinnati might have found themselves a legitimate starting quarterback and a future top-5 wide receiver. Prorate Green’s stats through five games for a full 16 game season and it would look like this: 77 catches for 1,286 yards and ten touchdowns. That’s a more productive rookie campaign than All-Pro wideout’s Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson. Dalton is taking his lumps but he has already shown a knack for fourth-quarter comebacks.
If I’m a Bengal’s fan I’m pretty damn excited for the Red Rifle to AJ Green combination…even if Mike Brown is around to spoil the fun for all eternity.
2. The Giants are reverting back to their natural instincts…
In my Saturday picks column I wrote that the Giants have been good this year because they haven’t turned the ball over—something they did a staggering 42 times last season. That pretty much fell apart when Eli Manning threw three interceptions against the Seahawks and the Giants as a whole turned the ball over five times. Like the Eagles, they’re piling up yards on offense and getting to the quarterback, but they’re failing in every other aspect of the game. As far as enigmas go, the G-Men and Eagles are right at the top of the list. According to the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings through week five, the Giants have the ninth best offense and eight best defense. They’ve gotten to the opposing quarterbacks 18 times—most in the league. Against Seattle they sacked Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst six times. The offense accumulated over 460 yards of offense. Despite Jackson getting punished by the Giant’s defensive lineman to the point of injury, the Seahawk's offense still put up 420+ yards of offense and racked up 22 first downs. It’s a problem that has always plagued the Giants, as they consistently are at the top of most statistical measures except turnover differential. Per DVOA, New York had last year’s eighth best offense and third best defense. Guess what? They missed the playoffs. By a hair, but still, I’d love to believe the Giants can be a contender in the NFC with their level of talent, but past experience tells us they won’t. An embarrassment of riches to say the least.
3. Lions are the most fascinating team of 2011…
They remind me of last season’s Philadelphia Eagles. Nothing, nothing, nothing, touchdown. That’s the Lions offense in a nutshell. There’s a reason they rank only 16th in total offense in terms of DVOA, a statistic that rewards efficiency rather than sheer production. Against the Bears on Monday Night Football, Detroit accumulated 395 yards of total offense…161 of which came on two plays. Compare this to the ruthless efficiency of the Patriots or the methodical approach of the Saints, in which they march steadfastly across the field and score. It’s a surprise when the Pats and Saints don’t have ten play, seven minute scoring drives. Their offenses operate like a mathematical equation…move this here, subtract that, divide this and BOOM, touchdown. It’s almost boring—so, so monotonous.
The Lions are different, and it’s what makes them exciting. Calvin Johnson isn’t Wes Welker, grinding out first downs, carrying the offense, and accumulating yards upon yards after the catch. 31 percent of his catches have gone for touchdowns. When a receiver scores a touchdown on nearly one out of every three catches—as Johnson has—that’s pretty incredible. There’s something almost human about these Detroit Lions, whereas the Saints, Packers and Patriot’s—the league’s three most prolific offenses—operate like machines. They don’t make many mistakes and it’s a little bit unsettling. The Lions commit plenty of gaffes, but they’re making up for them with spectacular play after spectacular play.
Can that take them deep into the postseason? I'm not so sure, but damn does it make for some superb television.
4. Can the Eagles turn it around?
Talent wins out, right? Gobs and gobs of yards and sacks and spectacular Michael Vick plays and fancy stats are important, right? Not if you can’t convert red zone opportunities, can't hold on to the football and can't sustain drives. Philadelphia has only converted 42 percent of their red zone trips into points, they’ve turned the ball over more than anyone in the league (15 times), and they average nearly three interceptions per game. Vick might be on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and run for another grand, but he has turned the ball over a staggering ten times.
So, back to the original question: can the Eagles turn their season around? Red Zone efficiency has never been a hallmark of the Andy Reid offense. Last season, with Vick at the helm, the team ranked 16th in red zone scoring percentage at 52.4 percent. They haven’t been in the top ten since 2004, when they were ranked fourth in the league. Not so coincidentally, that was the season Reid and the Eagles reached the Super Bowl. Without a power back, a great run-blocking offensive line, or a big receiver/tight end to become an elite red zone target, the Eagles will continue to struggle scoring points inside the 20 yard line.
As far as turnovers go, it will get better. Jason Avant and Jeremy Maclin have fumbled at critical times two weeks in a row. Ronnie Brown fumbled in an extremely bizarre play in which Brown tried to toss the football to a teammate as he was being tackled near the goal line. That type of stuff will happen less. There’s certainly a skill aspect in hanging on to the ball, but a lot of it is luck. Soon, you would expect the breaks to start rolling Philadelphia’s way.
Unfortunately for Eagles fans, I don’t like their playoff chances—not with a 1-4 start and a defense in need of a completely new scheme. They’ll get better, but they need another offseason to figure out this defense, acquire a solid red zone target for Michael Vick, and possibly a new coach.
5. I’m officially over the Cardinals…
For those not in ‘the know’ I had a brief fling with the Cardinals before the season. For all the ugly details read this. Here was my reasoning: the Cards have the easiest schedule in the league, they play in the weak NFC West, and Kevin Kolb should be a MASSIVE upgrade over the poo-poo platter of quarterbacks they enjoyed last season. Here’s what went wrong in three parts:
-Kevin Kolb blows. He just does. Kolb is the king of throwing off his back foot. Is there a worse starting quarterback in the league under pressure than Kevin Kolb?
-The secondary is hideous. Defensive Back Patrick Peterson was considered the safest pick of the 2011 draft, but he’s getting burned on a consistent basis.
-The weak NFC West isn’t as weak as we thought. San Francisco is a legitimately strong NFC team (more on them later), Tarvaris Jackson is surprisingly competent, and the Rams…well, the Rams really do suck. So the schedule that looked rather easy has turned out to be not so easy.
6. Examining San Francisco’s stunning rise to contention…
Just read this piece on the New York Time’s Fifth Down Blog, by Chase Stuart. Really fascinating. Stuart’s main points in bullet form:
-Coach Jim Harbaugh’s incredible transformation of Stanford’s football program—a nigh impossible task considering the school’s stringent academic standards. I follow college football on the periphery, thus, I never realized what a feat Stanford’s resurgence as a football powerhouse has been.
-San Fran has improved weekly, leading up to their 48-3 domination of the Buccaneers.
-Not only have the 49er’s been a dominant run-stopping team, but they’ve been fully committed to pounding the rock with running back Frank Gore. As Stuart points out, the 49ers are one of three teams running the ball on at least half of their offensive plays.
Stuart’s piece says it all, but I’d just like to say that I was down on San Francisco before the season mostly because I didn’t trust Quarterback Alex Smith. He hasn’t been good at any point in his professional career, but suddenly he’s the master of efficiency. The man threw 11 interceptions in nine starts his rookie season, and has had a completion percentage above sixty only once…
Sometimes, things need to be seen to be believed.
No comments:
Post a Comment