Week 7 Picks

San Diego Chargers +4 @ New York Jets



As strange as it sounds, the 4-1 Chargers need this one. They’ve made a living squeaking out close wins against mediocre teams for the first five weeks, and Philip Rivers—a favorite for MVP before the season—is on pace for one of his worst seasons as a pro. I find this perplexing, and you’ve gotta’ thing he’ll turn it around—especially because Antonio Gates is making his return this week. New York’s offense scares me to the point that I’m leaning towards picking against them whenever they play a team with a reasonably competent defense and a good offense. The Chargers fit that bill very well…

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5

This one’s being played in London…what does that mean? I have absolutely no idea, but I hate everything about the Bears. Anytime your quarterback is screaming at someone on the sideline to tell your offensive coordinator “f*** him”!, chemistry might be an issue.

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers -1



Yup, it’s officially the John Beck show for week seven. You can’t convince me to trust John Beck, you simply can’t.

Atlanta Falcons +7 @ Detroit Lions

Look, Detroit isn’t as good as their record indicates. They can’t run the ball, and with Jahvid Best likely out for a long time, it’s about to get worse. As I’ve written before, Detroit’s offense relies on the big play, and when they don’t get it, they lose. Atlanta’s been only average at stopping the big play, but this is simply a gut feeling. As Dan Gilbert would say, trust my gut.

Seattle Seahawks +2 @ Cleveland Browns

Seattle’s defense is secretly decent and Cleveland’s offense is not so secretly very bad. In terms of DVOA, Seattle’s defense is ranked 13th in the league—third against the run. Considering Colt McCoy is averaging less than six yards per pass, the Browns are one of the worst big play offenses in the league (only 8 passes of 20+ yards, and one over 40), Peyton Hillis is adding a new dimension to the ‘Madden Curse’, and Charlie Whitehurst is likely starting at quarterback for the Seahawks, and this game is likely the flagship for what is a terrible slate of week seven games.

Denver Broncos +1 @ Miami Dolphins

I wish Brandon Marshall would start doing crazy Brandon Marshall things again, because this game is about as bad as it gets. Remember when Marshall had three straight 100 catch seasons? Vaguely, now he just drops very makeable touchdown grabs. I can’t wait until the Patriots trade a sixth round pick for him in 2012…

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans -2

Matt Schaub was really beat up against the Ravens last Sunday (4 sacks, 5 hits) to the point where he needed an MRI on his foot and missed some practice time. I can’t pick the Andre Johnson-less Texans over a fully-rested Titans team coming off the bye. Poor Houston fans…

Kansas City Chiefs +5 @ Oakland Raiders



My reasoning: either a 30 year-old journeyman will be starting at quarterback for the Raiders, or a guy who has been retired for nine months and has had five days to learn the playbook. They’re obviously going to ride McFadden, but the Chiefs have been reasonably competent at stopping the run (allowing only 3.8 yards per carry).

On the Carson Palmer trade: Palmer hasn’t given us any indication over the past two seasons that he’s a franchise quarterback again. You only trade a first round pick and a second if you know exactly what you’re getting, and you know the player will unequivocally improve your team. He’ll certainly be better than the next best alternative (Kyle Boller), but I’m not so sure Palmer is better than a healthy Jason Campbell.

The Raiders obviously think they’re a playoff-caliber team; otherwise they wouldn’t have panicked and given up the kitchen sink for Palmer. That’s exactly what this was: a panic move. Oakland mortgaged its future for a quarterback who has been mediocre since 2006, all because Campbell went down to injury, and they needed SOMETHING living and breathing at quarterback to take them to the postseason. Are we even sure they’re a playoff team? This move becomes an absolute failure if the Raiders fail to qualify for the postseason, and then don’t have a pick in the first FOUR rounds of the 2012 draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 @ Arizona Cardinals

A mildly suspicious game. I don’t totally trust the Steelers yet, and there’s a chance the Cardinals could be frisky at home. But then I looked at Arizona’s secondary and I shed a tear, both for Cardinals fans, and my own failed sleeper prediction. Only you Kevin Kolb, only you.

Green Bay Packers -9 @ Minnesota Vikings

It’s very likely the Vikings will be without their two starting cornerbacks Sunday, Chris Cook because of trouble with the law, and Antoine Winfield because of injury. Minnesota literally can’t stymie arguably the best passing offense in the NFL without their two starting corners, and truthfully, probably couldn’t do it with them.

St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys -10

Of all the teams that could have used Brandon Lloyd, the freaking RAMS get him? The Rams that have ZERO chance of making the playoffs? You know some team (possibly the Titans, my sources tell me) is going to sign Terrell Owens and he’s obviously going to be terrible because he’s 38 and held a strange ‘intervention’ style interview with the one and only Stephen A. Smith to drum up interest in his return to the NFL. Why the Jets didn’t dump the corpse of Plaxico Burress (seriously, watch him run routes. I use run for a lack of a better word, it’s more like shamble) and trade a fourth-rounder for Brandon Lloyd I’ll never know. You’ve seen this catch, right?

UPDATE: Sam Bradford is OUT. Gulp.

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints -14

Jesus, the games are so bad this week I have to ramble on about something other than the games lest I cause you to bludgeon yourself to death with a Curtis Painter action figure.

Baltimore Ravens -10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

If you decide to torture yourself like I will by watching this game, I suggest you cover your eyes anytime Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguar’s offense take the field. Remember when the Jets’ offense imploded a couple of weeks ago against the Raven’s on Monday Night Football? Baltimore’s defense is that good, only Gabbert is quarterbacking the league’s worst offense. This has the feel of a classic 34-3, two-interception Ed Reed game.

Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Detroit Lions

Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens OVER Jacksonville Jaguars

Pounding of the Week: Green Bay Packers OVER Minnesota Vikings

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 47-41-2