Week 5 Picks

RIP Al Davis

I missed my regular ‘Morning After’ column and didn’t finish a ‘NFL at the quarter mark’ piece I had planned. Instead, you’re treated to Sunday picks with a touch of musings at the quarter mark. Enjoy.

Tennessee Titans +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Hasselbeck is quietly on pace to throw for 4,608 yards, 32 touchdowns, and only 12 interceptions. There hasn’t been a more surprising sports resurgence since Brett Favre had arguably his best season as a pro in 2009 (33 touchdown passes to seven interceptions). Raise your hand if you thought Hasselbeck would have an MVP-like start to his 2011 campaign after a miserable three year stretch in Seattle that included a 34 to 44 interception-touchdown ratio. I certainly didn’t.

Pittsburgh is hard to read at this point. Their front seven was absolutely dominated by the Texans last Sunday. Arian Foster broke the 150-yard mark in his return from a nagging hamstring injury. Pittsburgh’s run defense last season was one of the best ever, statistically speaking. It’s hard to believe that they will remain the league’s 27th worst.

Chris Johnson seems to be hitting his groove (101 rushing yards last week), Tennessee’s defense is surprisingly terrific (fourth in the league per DVOA) and the Titans are catching the Steelers at exactly the right time. Roethlisberger is in a walking boot, their offensive line really can’t block anything, they can’t run the ball, James Harrison will be MIA for a few weeks and Mike Wallace is killing my fantasy team. Yup, just like we predicted…

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants -10

The New York Giants, at their best, can beat anyone. At their worst, they look like a bottom-five team. Perhaps the biggest reason for this maddening inconsistency is turnovers. Last season, the Giants coughed up the ball 42 times—three more than the second worst team in the league. In 2011, New York has turned the ball over only four times. Eli Manning, who contributed greatly to that awful turnover differential last season with 25 interceptions, has only thrown two picks through four games. New York—the classic shoot themselves in the foot team—might have finally turned the page. It’s only been four games, but still, it’s a promising development. With their always-strong pass rush, effective passing game (when Eli isn’t throwing it the opposite way), and punishing rushing attack the G-Men might be the best of the NFC East. Seriously.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Here’s why the Bengals are sneaky good: their defense is excellent. Per the Football Outsiders it’s the sixth best in the NFL. They’ve given up the least amount of yards in the game at 1102, and opposing offenses have scored a total of 74 points—fifth best in the league. Rookie Quarterback Andy Dalton—i.e. the Red Rifle—has exceeded all expectations. I can hardly wait for his first Monday Night Football game so we’re treated to three hours of Jon Gruden monologues about Dalton’s heart. “This guy might not have the strongest arm, he might not be the biggest guy on the football field, but this guy has HEART. I LIKE this guy."

New Orleans Saints -9 @ Carolina Panthers

New Orleans is right up there with the Packers as the best team in the NFL. Drew Brees is as steady as ever, Jimmy Graham is enjoying his coming out party, and Darren Sproles is CLEARLY better than Reggie Bush in his jack-of-all-trades role. The Saints defense—which looked like a possible debilitating weakness after week one—has shown improvement each week. Cam Newton may be the king of the Backdoor Cover, but this really feels like a 40-20 romp. It was bound to happen at some point…

Oakland Raiders +4 @ Houston Texans

Andre Johnson means more to the Texans than any other receiver to any other team. In the 13 games Johnson has missed in his career, Houston has gone 5-8. Quarterback Matt Schaub’s numbers with Andre Johnson last Sunday: 114 yards and one touchdown. Without? A mighty 24 yards and zero scores. Also, the Texans can rush the passer but have secretly been very, very bad against the run—30th in the league. Guess what the Raiders can do really, really, really well? Yup, run the ball. As bad of a matchup New England posed, this sets up near perfectly for Oakland.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ Buffalo Bills

Several scattered thoughts on the Eagles and Bills that may eventually resemble an explanation…

1. Philadelphia’s decision to appoint former offensive line coach Juan Castillo as defensive coordinator is more perplexing by the day. They had reasons for the promotion the public isn’t aware of, I’m sure, but how can you expect anyone to build a scheme around a bunch of new acquisitions in like eight weeks—especially when the person in question has coached the offensive side of the ball for the past thirteen years?

2. Nnamdi Asomugha has spent his entire professional career as a man-to-man defensive back. In Philadelphia he’s played some zone, and has even looked like a free safety in some situations. I even wondered before the season how he would integrate with other starting corner Asante Samuel, considering he’s played zone his entire career. It’s not working so far…

3. After a feel-good win over the Patriots, the Bills are regressing to the .500 team they probably should be. They’ve gotten lucky with turnovers and their defense is terrible. Buffalo is frisky, but not playoff bound.

4. Philadelphia can rush the passer and create big plays on offense. So far, that’s about it. Michael Vick hasn’t gotten any protection, the defense can’t stop anyone in the red zone, can’t stop the run, and the offense has been unable to succeed in short-yardage situations.

5. This all sounds very bad, but eventually talent has to win out, right? Buffalo’s greatest strength is passing the ball and Philly has three Pro-Bowl cornerbacks. Plus, Philadelphia might cease to exist if the Eagles lose to the Bills just two days after the Phillies bowed out of the postseason in the first round…

Kansas City Chiefs +1 @ Indianapolis Colts

Am I really picking a squad with a Head Coach and starting Quarterback that nearly came to blows on the sideline? Yes, yes I am. Here we have two teams with mediocre quarterbacks that have been CRUSHED by injury…how do you pick this one?

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings -3



My sleeper pick of the Cardinals isn’t going so well. They can’t close out games, Kevin Kolb has been Orton-esque in the Red Zone, and the back four couldn’t cover Ryan Howard. I hope Kolb has a fun three hours getting crushed by Jared Allen and Minnesota’s pass rush—which, historically, has been much better at home than on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers -2

The Bucs are coming off a short week of practice after playing Monday Night and had to travel cross country to California. Compound that with Tampa Bay’s strange predilection for starting games slowly, and San Francisco is a no-brainer choice.

San Fran is surprisingly good this season. Their defense is the seventh best in the NFL per DVOA and Alex Smith hasn’t been the Alex Smith we’re used to. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he hasn’t made many incapacitating mistakes. That’s the reason I stayed away from them before the season…little did I know Coach Jim Harbaugh has the magical ability to bring the best out of Smith.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots -2.5

The Pats are stunning NINE point favorites according to Pinnacle Sports.

Here’s a jumbled collection of thoughts on Sunday’s game:

-New England’s defense is incredibly bad. They can’t stop the run, can’t defend the pass, can’t tackle, and now are without their best defensive player: middle linebacker Jerod Mayo. In the second quarter of last Sunday’s contest against the Raiders, Pat’s safety Sergio Brown took a tackle angle so ghastly on a 30-yard completion it could best be described as a drunk chimpanzee playing Madden, who thinks it is a good idea to manually control his defensive backs.

This brings me to a quick tangent: why did Belichick decide to cut New England’s second and third best safety’s in the offseason? Meriweather I can understand. Despite inexplicably making the Pro Bowl last year, he was terrible in 2010 and has built a reputation as a head-hunting safety, who tries to make a statement with dangerous helmet-to-helmet collisions rather than sound tackling. Those are the type of players we don’t need in the NFL. James Sanders, on the other hand, certainly isn’t great, but he’s better than New England’s alternatives at this point, right?

-The Jets have given up 252 yards to opposing tight ends and 18 catches through four games. New England runs an inordinate amount of double tight end sets—most in the league. If there’s a weakness in New York’s pass defense—consistently tops in the league—it’s in the middle, covering tight ends. With the improvement Gronkowski has shown in his sophomore season and Hernandez returning from a lingering knee issue, New England is exactly the right team to exploit it.

-As bad as Mark Sanchez looked on Sunday Night Football, the Patriot’s defense has a penchant for making mediocre passing attacks look very, very fearsome. New York will score, it’s simply a matter of whether you think last season’s defensive domination was an aberration or not. I think it was, and this time New England will score in the 30’s.

San Diego Chargers -8 @ Denver Broncos

Kyle Orton is the perfect example of a quarterback you need to watch to fully appreciate his mediocrity. His stats don’t look so bad—945 pass yards, 8 TD’s, 6 interceptions, 60 percent of passes completed—but he’s been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. As Michael Lombardi is fond of saying, he’s a ’20-20’ quarterback, meaning he’s only good until he reaches the red zone. This year, he hasn’t been good anywhere. Pile on Denver’s homefield un-advantage because of Bronco fans pining for Tim Tebow, and I’m surprised Orton has been able to keep it together.

Green Bay Packers -3 @ Atlanta Falcons



How pissed must GM Thomas Dimitroff be at this point? He traded nearly all of his 2011 draft picks for wide receiver Julio Jones in order to improve the offense. Jones has been everything you could want in a rookie wideout, but Roddy White has been invisible and the offense line has allowed Matt Ryan to be sacked 13 times. Shore up one weakness, and several others appear.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions -6

Reasons why it’s tempting to pick Da Bears: Detroit can’t run the ball (74.5 rushing yards per game), their bandwagon is overflowing at this point, Matt Stafford was horrible for the first three quarters of a measuring stick game against the Cowboys—imagine what he’ll look like on Monday Night Football, and Detroit is making a habit out of falling behind big early in games, which you would think would catch up with them at some point.

Reasons why it’s a bad idea: Chicago’s offensive line is really, really bad and Detroit’s defensive line is really, really good. Do you remember the Bear’s week two loss to the Saints, in which Cutler was sacked six times, and the offense accumulated only 246 yards? The type of game Chicago seems to have a few times a season where the offense is just completely inept? EVERYTHING points to another one of those this week…

Upset of the Week: Oakland Raiders OVER Houston Texans

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions OVER Chicago Bears

Pounding of the Week: New York Giants OVER Seattle Seahawks

Last Week: 8-6-2

Overall: 28-34-2

Some bonus quick hits from last Sunday’s games since I missed my regular ‘Morning After’ column…

1. Night games aren’t living up to expectations…

What we’ve been treated to so far:

Week 1: New England crushed the Dolphins and Oakland edges the Broncos in a game featuring 25 penalties.

Week 2: Atlanta beats the Eagles in a close and surprisingly enjoyable game; the Giants crush the offensively inept Rams.

Week 3: Pittsburgh edges the Colts in boring fashion and Dallas Beats Washington with six field goals. The contest featured only one touchdown.

Week 4: We’re treated to Joe Flacco-Mark Sanchez performances so miserable ESPN immediately canceled the ‘Year of the Quarterback’ and we once again have the fortune of watching Curtis Painter on Monday Night Football.

As bad as those first eight games were, it doesn’t get much better. Miami, Minnesota (twice), Indianapolis (twice), Jacksonville, Kansas City (three times) are yet to play, and on December 12th the Seahawks and Rams will play on Monday Night Football. That’s a 6-3 game waiting to happen.

2. A down year in the AFC?

Last year’s AFC playoff teams: the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts. Two of those teams almost assuredly won’t return to the postseason (Colts and Chiefs), two of them have huge question marks right now (Jets and Steelers), which leaves only two looking strong. The Titans, Texans, Chargers, and Raiders look capable, but there isn’t a single AFC team without at least one big question mark. That might change as the regular season rolls on, but right now the NFC looks like the stronger conference.

3. The Jets look lost on offense…



When your quarterback is average at best, you better be able to run the ball and control the clock. That’s not the case with New York, as they’ve rushed for only 284 yards for a 3.1 yards per carry average. When you’ve got a quarterback like Mark Sanchez—who’s on pace to throw the ball 588 times—that’s not good. I wonder whether New York’s strong defense is enough to compete for a playoff spot if the offense continues to suck…Sunday’s meeting with the Patriots will be really telling.