Week 8 Quick Picks

What follows is a slightly abbreviated and jumbled compilation of my week eight picks. Happy Halloween everybody!



Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens -10

A 34-10 barnburner. I don’t like Kevin Kolb against the best defense in the league; I don’t like it at all. Also, cue pundits declaring the Ravens “back in business” after laying a 30-burger on one of the more inept defenses in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers -3

To the guy who spent like four dollars on Cam Newton in my fantasy auction league: you lucky bastard! Watching Cam play last Sunday, I was struck not just by the strength of his arm or his escapability (both are certainly estimable), but by his accuracy. As a rookie, he’s completing 60 percent of his passes. That’s better than Peyton Manning in his first season. Remember when we felt bad for the Panthers having the first pick in this draft? FUN TIMES.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans -6

This feels like the type of game where the sucky team that has been able to hang with the best in the league is finally blown out. I don’t know why, just a gut feeling.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants -7

More than any other team I’m rooting for the Dolphins to land the number one pick. They’ve sucked for far too long. They need a ‘new Marino’. Just get Tony Sparano out of their so he doesn’t decide to give Reggie Bush the ball 25 times a game with Andrew Luck under center.

New Orleans Saints -14 @ St. Louis Rams

I’m not gonna’ lie, I was pulling for the Saints to score 70 last week. Am I a cruel human being? Probably, but it hasn’t been done since 1966. What!? I’m a fan of history!

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans -2.5

Do you know how tempted I am to pick the Colts? I really believe the Colts aren’t as bad as they showed last week, and the Titans haven’t been good since they upset Baltimore. So what’s stopping me? After last week’s 62-7 loss to the Saints, Jim Caldwell stumbled around the field like he just witnessed the execution of his family. I’m afraid the Colts are toast…if we didn’t know that already.

Detroit Lions -3 @ Denver Broncos

Tebow threw some flummoxing passes in his first start of the season. I’m sure you’ve seen the lowlights by now, but at one point he lofted a ball 15 yards over his WIDE OPEN target. There are multiple third string quarterbacks in the league that could make that throw with ease. And even Tebow’s comeback was ugly to watch. That winning touchdown throw was as poor as I’ve seen. I still don’t understand how it worked.

Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills -4

John Beck has no FITZMAGIC. The Bills have it in abundance. Also, can we give some love to Fred Jackson? He’s been Buffalo’s MVP of the season, NOT Fitzpatrick. I wish there was a rule where undeserving and underperforming players had to forfeit their huge contracts for more deserving players. That way, Jackson would get Johnson’s 60 million and CJ would get paid as much as a back’ averaging 2.9 yards per carry should get paid.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks +6

This is simple: The Seahawks have been surprisingly good at home since the beginning of last season, and the Bengal’s are merely frisky. Remember that very important distinction. They’re not good, they’re frisky.

Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers -4.5

If you enjoy terrible offenses facing off against superb defenses, then by all means, enjoy this game. No, really, please do.

New England Patriots -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Tom Brady kills the Steelers, he just does. Last year, when New England visited Heinz Field in one of the marquee games of the season, Brady shredded the best defense in the league to the tune of 350 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Patriots rushed for 103 yards against a defense that allowed an average of 62.8 rushing yards per game. For whatever reason, the Patriots have Pittsburgh’s defense figured out.

Dallas Cowboys +7 @ Philadelphia Eagles

This is a total coin flip. The Eagles do a lot well, the Cowboys do a lot well, yet both teams are great at finding unique ways to lose. I’m riding the “bye weeks may be detrimental” theory even though Andy Reid is 12-0 after bye weeks. Also, the Cowboys have the league’s third best defense.

San Diego Chargers -9 @ Kansas City Chiefs

I had the Chiefs winning this one for the past hour…but I’m not ready to give up on the Chargers. I believe in Philip Rivers, he’s gonna’ snap out of it. I believe in that offense, I really do. I continue to believe that San Diego is going to make a run the second half of the season into the postseason.

Lock of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Pittsburgh Steelers

Pounding of the Week: New Orleans Saints OVER St. Louis Rams

Upset of the Week: Seattle Seahawks OVER Cincinnati Bengals

Last Week: 6-6-1

Overall: 53-47-3

Week 7 Picks

San Diego Chargers +4 @ New York Jets



As strange as it sounds, the 4-1 Chargers need this one. They’ve made a living squeaking out close wins against mediocre teams for the first five weeks, and Philip Rivers—a favorite for MVP before the season—is on pace for one of his worst seasons as a pro. I find this perplexing, and you’ve gotta’ thing he’ll turn it around—especially because Antonio Gates is making his return this week. New York’s offense scares me to the point that I’m leaning towards picking against them whenever they play a team with a reasonably competent defense and a good offense. The Chargers fit that bill very well…

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5

This one’s being played in London…what does that mean? I have absolutely no idea, but I hate everything about the Bears. Anytime your quarterback is screaming at someone on the sideline to tell your offensive coordinator “f*** him”!, chemistry might be an issue.

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers -1



Yup, it’s officially the John Beck show for week seven. You can’t convince me to trust John Beck, you simply can’t.

Atlanta Falcons +7 @ Detroit Lions

Look, Detroit isn’t as good as their record indicates. They can’t run the ball, and with Jahvid Best likely out for a long time, it’s about to get worse. As I’ve written before, Detroit’s offense relies on the big play, and when they don’t get it, they lose. Atlanta’s been only average at stopping the big play, but this is simply a gut feeling. As Dan Gilbert would say, trust my gut.

Seattle Seahawks +2 @ Cleveland Browns

Seattle’s defense is secretly decent and Cleveland’s offense is not so secretly very bad. In terms of DVOA, Seattle’s defense is ranked 13th in the league—third against the run. Considering Colt McCoy is averaging less than six yards per pass, the Browns are one of the worst big play offenses in the league (only 8 passes of 20+ yards, and one over 40), Peyton Hillis is adding a new dimension to the ‘Madden Curse’, and Charlie Whitehurst is likely starting at quarterback for the Seahawks, and this game is likely the flagship for what is a terrible slate of week seven games.

Denver Broncos +1 @ Miami Dolphins

I wish Brandon Marshall would start doing crazy Brandon Marshall things again, because this game is about as bad as it gets. Remember when Marshall had three straight 100 catch seasons? Vaguely, now he just drops very makeable touchdown grabs. I can’t wait until the Patriots trade a sixth round pick for him in 2012…

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans -2

Matt Schaub was really beat up against the Ravens last Sunday (4 sacks, 5 hits) to the point where he needed an MRI on his foot and missed some practice time. I can’t pick the Andre Johnson-less Texans over a fully-rested Titans team coming off the bye. Poor Houston fans…

Kansas City Chiefs +5 @ Oakland Raiders



My reasoning: either a 30 year-old journeyman will be starting at quarterback for the Raiders, or a guy who has been retired for nine months and has had five days to learn the playbook. They’re obviously going to ride McFadden, but the Chiefs have been reasonably competent at stopping the run (allowing only 3.8 yards per carry).

On the Carson Palmer trade: Palmer hasn’t given us any indication over the past two seasons that he’s a franchise quarterback again. You only trade a first round pick and a second if you know exactly what you’re getting, and you know the player will unequivocally improve your team. He’ll certainly be better than the next best alternative (Kyle Boller), but I’m not so sure Palmer is better than a healthy Jason Campbell.

The Raiders obviously think they’re a playoff-caliber team; otherwise they wouldn’t have panicked and given up the kitchen sink for Palmer. That’s exactly what this was: a panic move. Oakland mortgaged its future for a quarterback who has been mediocre since 2006, all because Campbell went down to injury, and they needed SOMETHING living and breathing at quarterback to take them to the postseason. Are we even sure they’re a playoff team? This move becomes an absolute failure if the Raiders fail to qualify for the postseason, and then don’t have a pick in the first FOUR rounds of the 2012 draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 @ Arizona Cardinals

A mildly suspicious game. I don’t totally trust the Steelers yet, and there’s a chance the Cardinals could be frisky at home. But then I looked at Arizona’s secondary and I shed a tear, both for Cardinals fans, and my own failed sleeper prediction. Only you Kevin Kolb, only you.

Green Bay Packers -9 @ Minnesota Vikings

It’s very likely the Vikings will be without their two starting cornerbacks Sunday, Chris Cook because of trouble with the law, and Antoine Winfield because of injury. Minnesota literally can’t stymie arguably the best passing offense in the NFL without their two starting corners, and truthfully, probably couldn’t do it with them.

St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys -10

Of all the teams that could have used Brandon Lloyd, the freaking RAMS get him? The Rams that have ZERO chance of making the playoffs? You know some team (possibly the Titans, my sources tell me) is going to sign Terrell Owens and he’s obviously going to be terrible because he’s 38 and held a strange ‘intervention’ style interview with the one and only Stephen A. Smith to drum up interest in his return to the NFL. Why the Jets didn’t dump the corpse of Plaxico Burress (seriously, watch him run routes. I use run for a lack of a better word, it’s more like shamble) and trade a fourth-rounder for Brandon Lloyd I’ll never know. You’ve seen this catch, right?

UPDATE: Sam Bradford is OUT. Gulp.

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints -14

Jesus, the games are so bad this week I have to ramble on about something other than the games lest I cause you to bludgeon yourself to death with a Curtis Painter action figure.

Baltimore Ravens -10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

If you decide to torture yourself like I will by watching this game, I suggest you cover your eyes anytime Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguar’s offense take the field. Remember when the Jets’ offense imploded a couple of weeks ago against the Raven’s on Monday Night Football? Baltimore’s defense is that good, only Gabbert is quarterbacking the league’s worst offense. This has the feel of a classic 34-3, two-interception Ed Reed game.

Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Detroit Lions

Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens OVER Jacksonville Jaguars

Pounding of the Week: Green Bay Packers OVER Minnesota Vikings

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 47-41-2

Say No to Compromise

I can’t tell you what has gone on behind closed doors in “negotiations” between NBA ownership and the players association. I haven’t done any interviews, I haven’t collected any quotes, nor am I in any way close to these labor talks. But like any other fan of professional basketball, I have a vested interest in the outcome. I want basketball, you want basketball, the players want basketball, and the owners want basketball…IF they get EXACTLY what they want.

We can talk until we’re blue in the face about the fundamental issues separating the two sides. I’ve written thousands and thousands of words about revenue sharing, the split of basketball related income, and every other dispute—small and large—that is at the heart of professional basketball’s financial operating system. But that doesn’t matter anymore. We know what’s wrong, what’s right, and how both sides could find the middle ground. Throw it all out of the window, because these so-called ‘negotiations’ have escaped rational thought or logic.

Bless my heart; I tried as hard as I could to defend the owners. I argued in favor of revenue sharing, and I even defended the owner’s hard stance. I wrote endlessly about parity, the divide between two factions of NBA owners, and how the NBA’s financial system needs to be fixed for the sake of the league’s future. I actually wrote that a brand new collective bargaining agreement was necessary because the NBA couldn’t continue its exponential growth thanks to a flawed financial system.

Unfortunately, I forgot one very, very, very important snippet of information: the owners are idiots. Morons. They’ve alienated the pro-basketball watching world, lost the public relations war in a more devastating manner than LeBron lost the love of sports fans everywhere, and have destroyed any semblance of understanding thanks to their perverted and asinine negotiating tactics. Losing the public relations battle, in particular, is unbelievable. The players are the ones that should struggle to gain the sympathy of the public; they’re the folks that are making millions upon millions of dollars to play basketball and are now not giving into the owners demands. Essentially, the players are preventing us from watching NBA basketball. The player's union could fold, bang out a new CBA with David Stern and the owners in a couple of days, and hoops would be back. I’m not saying I believe it, but it’s what you would expect the majority of the public following the lockout on the periphery to believe. Yet somehow, the owners managed to screw that up.

If you’ve been following the labor negotiations, at some point you probably realized this: both sides deserve to take the blame for this extended basketball-free period. There’s no ‘good guy’ here. But the owners are absolutely murdering themselves with their utter disdain for negotiation. Some of their demands are actually understandable; for instance, owners want no less than a 50-50 split of all basketball related income (BRI). The union, however, is unwilling to go below a 53-47 split in favor of the players. That even 50-50 split seems almost shockingly reasonable…especially considering the players enjoyed a 57-43 split under the last collective bargaining agreement. But last night, in the final hours of negotiation and federal mediation for the foreseeable future, the owners took a hardline stance and demanded the players agree to the 50-50 split or else there would be no need for further talks. Negotiation at its finest! Take a stand and refuse to back down from it! Say no to compromise (actually, I think that should be the owner’s new slogan)!!!

The owners destroyed any shred of understanding they still had the moment they declared, “my way, or the highway”. They took their enviable and logical position, smashed it up into little bits, and tossed it in the public’s face. The players, according to various reports, went into last night’s negotiations, to, uh, negotiate. The owners weren’t having it unless the players union immediately consented to the 50-50 split. Hold on, I need to tie my hands down lest I bludgeon myself to death with this David Stern voodoo doll.

I honestly don’t know what happens at this point. Both sides seemed to be making progress with three straight days of negotiations, but then the board of governors meeting happened, and the owners decided to give the middle finger to anyone who cares about professional basketball. Federal mediator George Cohen bailed out of the talks last night because, “no useful purpose would be served by requesting the parties to continue the mediation process at this time”. Hold on; allow me to bandage my hand after shoving it in a pot of boiling water.

So yeah, the time for understanding and logical discourse has passed. We have moved on to the he said, she said, finger pointing part of the process. Both sides will simmer and stew and rest on their laurels until the other side breaks. Let’s all give a round of applause to the owners for butchering their very rational demands and give a loud f#@& you! to the hardliners. At a time when compromise should be of the utmost importance, pugnacity, stubbornness, and greed are winning the day.

Week 6 Picks

San Francisco 49ers +7 @ Detroit Lions

One of these young, upstart squads has to falter at some point. Detroit’s offense has gotten off to slow starts each of the past three weeks. Eventually, as I’ve written, that has to catch up with them. San Francisco has the team to take advantage. They can run the ball, control the pace, and have the defense to tamp down on Detroit’s offensive attack.

St. Louis Rams @ Green Bay Packers -14



The Packers are a full-blown juggernaut while the Rams are…what’s the opposite of juggernaut? Bottom-feeder? That doesn’t have the same ring to it. I propose the word “Lucktastic”!

Carolina Panthers +5.5 @ Atlanta Falcons

Purely a feel pick, as you really shouldn’t trust rookies on the road. My defense:

-its Cam freaking’ Newton!

-It’s in a dome and the Falcons can’t play defense.

-Julio Jones has been ruled out meaning the Falcons are down to Roddy White and…and…and…

-One last point: overlook Carolina’s offense at your own risk. It’s extremely legitimate.

Indianapolis Colts @ Cincinnati Bengals -2

I know, I know, the Bengal’s accomplished the rare feat of making the Jaguars look competent, but still, they’re a decent squad. As I wrote in my ‘Morning After’ column, the Andy Dalton-AJ Green draft picks are working out pretty well. I tried to come up with a reason to like the Colts, but then I realized their defense allowed Kansas City Quarterback Matt Cassel to have this line: 21 of 29, 257 yards with 4 TD’s and 0 picks. Oh, and in that same game running back Jackie Battle—who you have probably never heard of—ran for 119 yards on 19 carries. I rest my case.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Giants -1.5

Here’s what we know: The Giants are incredibly inconsistent, they struggle to run the ball, their pass rush is fierce, and the Bills are good at forcing turnovers but that’s about it defensively. After a miserable outing against the Seahawks it’s time for the Giants to convince everyone they’re good again, right? Oh, and here are some stats because I’m obligated to be informative: Per DVOA, the Bills own the league’s 20th best run defense. Could this be the game New York finally gets its ground game on track?

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Pittsburgh Steelers -11

The Jaguars are a painful team to watch—don’t let their semi-competent game against the Bengal’s fool you. THEY SUCK.

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ Washington Redskins

We’ve got two rather powerful psychological factors in play for this contest: a revenge game for the Redskins after getting slaughtered by the Eagles on Monday Night Football last season, and an Eagles team with its back to the wall—in desperate need of a win. If Philadelphia loses they’ll likely need to go at least 9-1 the rest of the way to secure a playoff spot. I see an Eagles win here, even if Washington’s pass rush scares the hell out of me.

Houston Texans @ Baltimore Ravens -6.5

You don’t run on the Ravens, you just don’t. Are we sure the Texans can sustain a passing attack again the best pass defense in the NFL without Andre Johnson? I highly doubt it.

Cleveland Browns @ Oakland Raiders -5



Oakland’s the best running team in the league while the Browns are giving up over 120 yards a game on the ground. That simple stat tells me all I need to know…

Dallas Cowboys @ New England Patriots -1

This Rob Ryan vs. the Patriots offense narrative is actually starting to scare me. He DID devise a scheme capable of shutting down New England’s vaunted offense with the Browns, who happened to be last year’s 17th ranked defense. Imagine what he’ll be able to devise with the talent of the Cowboy’s defense?

Here’s what’s keeping me from taking Dallas: their secondary. New England’s spread attack is the perfect offensive scheme to take advantage of that defensive weakness. This game could easily go into the seventies—or even eighties, and I trust the Patriot’s offense just a little bit more.

New Orleans Saints -7 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

The Buccaneers aren’t as bad as they showed in a 45 point loss to the 49ers. I firmly believe that, HOWEVER, if you can’t throw you can’t beat the Saints—their offense is simply too good. Tampa Bay Quarterback Josh Freeman has averaged 231 pass yards per game, half a touchdown, and an interception. I rest my case.

Minnesota Vikings +3 @ Chicago Bears



New rule: under no circumstances shall you put faith (or money) in the Chicago Bears if they’re up against an elite pass rush. Just don’t do it. Cutler was—dare I say heroic—against the Lions fierce pass rush on Monday Night Football, but he can’t do it two weeks in a row, can he?

By the way, here’s a good under the radar story if you’re tired of ESPN force-feeding us the same tired narratives of Tony Romo, Brandon Marshall is insane, the Packers are kinda good, and Tony Romo: Jared Allen is having a MONSTER season. 8.5 sacks, a forced fumble, and an interception. Fairly certain the Bears don’t have a soul that can block him.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets -9

As many things that have gone wrong for the Jets in 2011, pass defense is not one of them. Despite giving up over 300 yards to Tom Brady last week, the Jets still have the league’s second best pass defense per the Football Outsiders DVOA metric. Recall that the Dolphins are starting Quarterback Matt Moore (a journeyman at best…although he did throw 8 TD’s to 2 interceptions in 2009) and Brandon Marshall has vowed to get ejected by the middle of the second quarter. Yup, he’s still crazy, and the Dolphins still suck.

Last Week: 10-3

Overall: 38-37-2

Upset of the Week: San Francisco 49ers OVER Detroit Lions

Lock of the Week: Minnesota Vikings OVER Chicago Bears

Pounding of the Week: Green Bay Packers OVER St. Louis Rams

The Morning After—Week 5

1. Could the future of the Bengals be any brighter?



Wait, I’m leading this column with the Bengals? THE BENGALS? Yes, yes I am. Their future is that exciting following a miserable 2010-2011 season. After the draft I thought it was (obviously) very important for one of their top two picks (Wideout A.J Green and Quarterback Andy Dalton) to pan out. That’s not rocket science, I realize this, but I also privately considered the future of the organization if BOTH of them were keepers. The Bengals aren’t exactly the model franchise; as owner Mike Brown is a money grubbing contrarian who is against progress in all forms, but the fans deserve better than what they’ve been treated to for the past decade. In Dalton and Green, Cincinnati might have found themselves a legitimate starting quarterback and a future top-5 wide receiver. Prorate Green’s stats through five games for a full 16 game season and it would look like this: 77 catches for 1,286 yards and ten touchdowns. That’s a more productive rookie campaign than All-Pro wideout’s Larry Fitzgerald, Calvin Johnson and Andre Johnson. Dalton is taking his lumps but he has already shown a knack for fourth-quarter comebacks.

If I’m a Bengal’s fan I’m pretty damn excited for the Red Rifle to AJ Green combination…even if Mike Brown is around to spoil the fun for all eternity.

2. The Giants are reverting back to their natural instincts…



In my Saturday picks column I wrote that the Giants have been good this year because they haven’t turned the ball over—something they did a staggering 42 times last season. That pretty much fell apart when Eli Manning threw three interceptions against the Seahawks and the Giants as a whole turned the ball over five times. Like the Eagles, they’re piling up yards on offense and getting to the quarterback, but they’re failing in every other aspect of the game. As far as enigmas go, the G-Men and Eagles are right at the top of the list. According to the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings through week five, the Giants have the ninth best offense and eight best defense. They’ve gotten to the opposing quarterbacks 18 times—most in the league. Against Seattle they sacked Tarvaris Jackson and Charlie Whitehurst six times. The offense accumulated over 460 yards of offense. Despite Jackson getting punished by the Giant’s defensive lineman to the point of injury, the Seahawk's offense still put up 420+ yards of offense and racked up 22 first downs. It’s a problem that has always plagued the Giants, as they consistently are at the top of most statistical measures except turnover differential. Per DVOA, New York had last year’s eighth best offense and third best defense. Guess what? They missed the playoffs. By a hair, but still, I’d love to believe the Giants can be a contender in the NFC with their level of talent, but past experience tells us they won’t. An embarrassment of riches to say the least.

3. Lions are the most fascinating team of 2011…

They remind me of last season’s Philadelphia Eagles. Nothing, nothing, nothing, touchdown. That’s the Lions offense in a nutshell. There’s a reason they rank only 16th in total offense in terms of DVOA, a statistic that rewards efficiency rather than sheer production. Against the Bears on Monday Night Football, Detroit accumulated 395 yards of total offense…161 of which came on two plays. Compare this to the ruthless efficiency of the Patriots or the methodical approach of the Saints, in which they march steadfastly across the field and score. It’s a surprise when the Pats and Saints don’t have ten play, seven minute scoring drives. Their offenses operate like a mathematical equation…move this here, subtract that, divide this and BOOM, touchdown. It’s almost boring—so, so monotonous.

The Lions are different, and it’s what makes them exciting. Calvin Johnson isn’t Wes Welker, grinding out first downs, carrying the offense, and accumulating yards upon yards after the catch. 31 percent of his catches have gone for touchdowns. When a receiver scores a touchdown on nearly one out of every three catches—as Johnson has—that’s pretty incredible. There’s something almost human about these Detroit Lions, whereas the Saints, Packers and Patriot’s—the league’s three most prolific offenses—operate like machines. They don’t make many mistakes and it’s a little bit unsettling. The Lions commit plenty of gaffes, but they’re making up for them with spectacular play after spectacular play.

Can that take them deep into the postseason? I'm not so sure, but damn does it make for some superb television.

4. Can the Eagles turn it around?

Talent wins out, right? Gobs and gobs of yards and sacks and spectacular Michael Vick plays and fancy stats are important, right? Not if you can’t convert red zone opportunities, can't hold on to the football and can't sustain drives. Philadelphia has only converted 42 percent of their red zone trips into points, they’ve turned the ball over more than anyone in the league (15 times), and they average nearly three interceptions per game. Vick might be on pace to throw for 4,000 yards and run for another grand, but he has turned the ball over a staggering ten times.

So, back to the original question: can the Eagles turn their season around? Red Zone efficiency has never been a hallmark of the Andy Reid offense. Last season, with Vick at the helm, the team ranked 16th in red zone scoring percentage at 52.4 percent. They haven’t been in the top ten since 2004, when they were ranked fourth in the league. Not so coincidentally, that was the season Reid and the Eagles reached the Super Bowl. Without a power back, a great run-blocking offensive line, or a big receiver/tight end to become an elite red zone target, the Eagles will continue to struggle scoring points inside the 20 yard line.

As far as turnovers go, it will get better. Jason Avant and Jeremy Maclin have fumbled at critical times two weeks in a row. Ronnie Brown fumbled in an extremely bizarre play in which Brown tried to toss the football to a teammate as he was being tackled near the goal line. That type of stuff will happen less. There’s certainly a skill aspect in hanging on to the ball, but a lot of it is luck. Soon, you would expect the breaks to start rolling Philadelphia’s way.

Unfortunately for Eagles fans, I don’t like their playoff chances—not with a 1-4 start and a defense in need of a completely new scheme. They’ll get better, but they need another offseason to figure out this defense, acquire a solid red zone target for Michael Vick, and possibly a new coach.

5. I’m officially over the Cardinals…

For those not in ‘the know’ I had a brief fling with the Cardinals before the season. For all the ugly details read this. Here was my reasoning: the Cards have the easiest schedule in the league, they play in the weak NFC West, and Kevin Kolb should be a MASSIVE upgrade over the poo-poo platter of quarterbacks they enjoyed last season. Here’s what went wrong in three parts:

-Kevin Kolb blows. He just does. Kolb is the king of throwing off his back foot. Is there a worse starting quarterback in the league under pressure than Kevin Kolb?

-The secondary is hideous. Defensive Back Patrick Peterson was considered the safest pick of the 2011 draft, but he’s getting burned on a consistent basis.

-The weak NFC West isn’t as weak as we thought. San Francisco is a legitimately strong NFC team (more on them later), Tarvaris Jackson is surprisingly competent, and the Rams…well, the Rams really do suck. So the schedule that looked rather easy has turned out to be not so easy.

6. Examining San Francisco’s stunning rise to contention…



Just read this piece on the New York Time’s Fifth Down Blog, by Chase Stuart. Really fascinating. Stuart’s main points in bullet form:

-Coach Jim Harbaugh’s incredible transformation of Stanford’s football program—a nigh impossible task considering the school’s stringent academic standards. I follow college football on the periphery, thus, I never realized what a feat Stanford’s resurgence as a football powerhouse has been.

-San Fran has improved weekly, leading up to their 48-3 domination of the Buccaneers.

-Not only have the 49er’s been a dominant run-stopping team, but they’ve been fully committed to pounding the rock with running back Frank Gore. As Stuart points out, the 49ers are one of three teams running the ball on at least half of their offensive plays.

Stuart’s piece says it all, but I’d just like to say that I was down on San Francisco before the season mostly because I didn’t trust Quarterback Alex Smith. He hasn’t been good at any point in his professional career, but suddenly he’s the master of efficiency. The man threw 11 interceptions in nine starts his rookie season, and has had a completion percentage above sixty only once…

Sometimes, things need to be seen to be believed.

Week 5 Picks

RIP Al Davis

I missed my regular ‘Morning After’ column and didn’t finish a ‘NFL at the quarter mark’ piece I had planned. Instead, you’re treated to Sunday picks with a touch of musings at the quarter mark. Enjoy.

Tennessee Titans +3 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Matt Hasselbeck is quietly on pace to throw for 4,608 yards, 32 touchdowns, and only 12 interceptions. There hasn’t been a more surprising sports resurgence since Brett Favre had arguably his best season as a pro in 2009 (33 touchdown passes to seven interceptions). Raise your hand if you thought Hasselbeck would have an MVP-like start to his 2011 campaign after a miserable three year stretch in Seattle that included a 34 to 44 interception-touchdown ratio. I certainly didn’t.

Pittsburgh is hard to read at this point. Their front seven was absolutely dominated by the Texans last Sunday. Arian Foster broke the 150-yard mark in his return from a nagging hamstring injury. Pittsburgh’s run defense last season was one of the best ever, statistically speaking. It’s hard to believe that they will remain the league’s 27th worst.

Chris Johnson seems to be hitting his groove (101 rushing yards last week), Tennessee’s defense is surprisingly terrific (fourth in the league per DVOA) and the Titans are catching the Steelers at exactly the right time. Roethlisberger is in a walking boot, their offensive line really can’t block anything, they can’t run the ball, James Harrison will be MIA for a few weeks and Mike Wallace is killing my fantasy team. Yup, just like we predicted…

Seattle Seahawks @ New York Giants -10

The New York Giants, at their best, can beat anyone. At their worst, they look like a bottom-five team. Perhaps the biggest reason for this maddening inconsistency is turnovers. Last season, the Giants coughed up the ball 42 times—three more than the second worst team in the league. In 2011, New York has turned the ball over only four times. Eli Manning, who contributed greatly to that awful turnover differential last season with 25 interceptions, has only thrown two picks through four games. New York—the classic shoot themselves in the foot team—might have finally turned the page. It’s only been four games, but still, it’s a promising development. With their always-strong pass rush, effective passing game (when Eli isn’t throwing it the opposite way), and punishing rushing attack the G-Men might be the best of the NFC East. Seriously.

Cincinnati Bengals +1 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Here’s why the Bengals are sneaky good: their defense is excellent. Per the Football Outsiders it’s the sixth best in the NFL. They’ve given up the least amount of yards in the game at 1102, and opposing offenses have scored a total of 74 points—fifth best in the league. Rookie Quarterback Andy Dalton—i.e. the Red Rifle—has exceeded all expectations. I can hardly wait for his first Monday Night Football game so we’re treated to three hours of Jon Gruden monologues about Dalton’s heart. “This guy might not have the strongest arm, he might not be the biggest guy on the football field, but this guy has HEART. I LIKE this guy."

New Orleans Saints -9 @ Carolina Panthers

New Orleans is right up there with the Packers as the best team in the NFL. Drew Brees is as steady as ever, Jimmy Graham is enjoying his coming out party, and Darren Sproles is CLEARLY better than Reggie Bush in his jack-of-all-trades role. The Saints defense—which looked like a possible debilitating weakness after week one—has shown improvement each week. Cam Newton may be the king of the Backdoor Cover, but this really feels like a 40-20 romp. It was bound to happen at some point…

Oakland Raiders +4 @ Houston Texans

Andre Johnson means more to the Texans than any other receiver to any other team. In the 13 games Johnson has missed in his career, Houston has gone 5-8. Quarterback Matt Schaub’s numbers with Andre Johnson last Sunday: 114 yards and one touchdown. Without? A mighty 24 yards and zero scores. Also, the Texans can rush the passer but have secretly been very, very bad against the run—30th in the league. Guess what the Raiders can do really, really, really well? Yup, run the ball. As bad of a matchup New England posed, this sets up near perfectly for Oakland.

Philadelphia Eagles -3 @ Buffalo Bills

Several scattered thoughts on the Eagles and Bills that may eventually resemble an explanation…

1. Philadelphia’s decision to appoint former offensive line coach Juan Castillo as defensive coordinator is more perplexing by the day. They had reasons for the promotion the public isn’t aware of, I’m sure, but how can you expect anyone to build a scheme around a bunch of new acquisitions in like eight weeks—especially when the person in question has coached the offensive side of the ball for the past thirteen years?

2. Nnamdi Asomugha has spent his entire professional career as a man-to-man defensive back. In Philadelphia he’s played some zone, and has even looked like a free safety in some situations. I even wondered before the season how he would integrate with other starting corner Asante Samuel, considering he’s played zone his entire career. It’s not working so far…

3. After a feel-good win over the Patriots, the Bills are regressing to the .500 team they probably should be. They’ve gotten lucky with turnovers and their defense is terrible. Buffalo is frisky, but not playoff bound.

4. Philadelphia can rush the passer and create big plays on offense. So far, that’s about it. Michael Vick hasn’t gotten any protection, the defense can’t stop anyone in the red zone, can’t stop the run, and the offense has been unable to succeed in short-yardage situations.

5. This all sounds very bad, but eventually talent has to win out, right? Buffalo’s greatest strength is passing the ball and Philly has three Pro-Bowl cornerbacks. Plus, Philadelphia might cease to exist if the Eagles lose to the Bills just two days after the Phillies bowed out of the postseason in the first round…

Kansas City Chiefs +1 @ Indianapolis Colts

Am I really picking a squad with a Head Coach and starting Quarterback that nearly came to blows on the sideline? Yes, yes I am. Here we have two teams with mediocre quarterbacks that have been CRUSHED by injury…how do you pick this one?

Arizona Cardinals @ Minnesota Vikings -3



My sleeper pick of the Cardinals isn’t going so well. They can’t close out games, Kevin Kolb has been Orton-esque in the Red Zone, and the back four couldn’t cover Ryan Howard. I hope Kolb has a fun three hours getting crushed by Jared Allen and Minnesota’s pass rush—which, historically, has been much better at home than on the road.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers -2

The Bucs are coming off a short week of practice after playing Monday Night and had to travel cross country to California. Compound that with Tampa Bay’s strange predilection for starting games slowly, and San Francisco is a no-brainer choice.

San Fran is surprisingly good this season. Their defense is the seventh best in the NFL per DVOA and Alex Smith hasn’t been the Alex Smith we’re used to. He hasn’t been spectacular, but he hasn’t made many incapacitating mistakes. That’s the reason I stayed away from them before the season…little did I know Coach Jim Harbaugh has the magical ability to bring the best out of Smith.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots -2.5

The Pats are stunning NINE point favorites according to Pinnacle Sports.

Here’s a jumbled collection of thoughts on Sunday’s game:

-New England’s defense is incredibly bad. They can’t stop the run, can’t defend the pass, can’t tackle, and now are without their best defensive player: middle linebacker Jerod Mayo. In the second quarter of last Sunday’s contest against the Raiders, Pat’s safety Sergio Brown took a tackle angle so ghastly on a 30-yard completion it could best be described as a drunk chimpanzee playing Madden, who thinks it is a good idea to manually control his defensive backs.

This brings me to a quick tangent: why did Belichick decide to cut New England’s second and third best safety’s in the offseason? Meriweather I can understand. Despite inexplicably making the Pro Bowl last year, he was terrible in 2010 and has built a reputation as a head-hunting safety, who tries to make a statement with dangerous helmet-to-helmet collisions rather than sound tackling. Those are the type of players we don’t need in the NFL. James Sanders, on the other hand, certainly isn’t great, but he’s better than New England’s alternatives at this point, right?

-The Jets have given up 252 yards to opposing tight ends and 18 catches through four games. New England runs an inordinate amount of double tight end sets—most in the league. If there’s a weakness in New York’s pass defense—consistently tops in the league—it’s in the middle, covering tight ends. With the improvement Gronkowski has shown in his sophomore season and Hernandez returning from a lingering knee issue, New England is exactly the right team to exploit it.

-As bad as Mark Sanchez looked on Sunday Night Football, the Patriot’s defense has a penchant for making mediocre passing attacks look very, very fearsome. New York will score, it’s simply a matter of whether you think last season’s defensive domination was an aberration or not. I think it was, and this time New England will score in the 30’s.

San Diego Chargers -8 @ Denver Broncos

Kyle Orton is the perfect example of a quarterback you need to watch to fully appreciate his mediocrity. His stats don’t look so bad—945 pass yards, 8 TD’s, 6 interceptions, 60 percent of passes completed—but he’s been one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the league. As Michael Lombardi is fond of saying, he’s a ’20-20’ quarterback, meaning he’s only good until he reaches the red zone. This year, he hasn’t been good anywhere. Pile on Denver’s homefield un-advantage because of Bronco fans pining for Tim Tebow, and I’m surprised Orton has been able to keep it together.

Green Bay Packers -3 @ Atlanta Falcons



How pissed must GM Thomas Dimitroff be at this point? He traded nearly all of his 2011 draft picks for wide receiver Julio Jones in order to improve the offense. Jones has been everything you could want in a rookie wideout, but Roddy White has been invisible and the offense line has allowed Matt Ryan to be sacked 13 times. Shore up one weakness, and several others appear.

Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions -6

Reasons why it’s tempting to pick Da Bears: Detroit can’t run the ball (74.5 rushing yards per game), their bandwagon is overflowing at this point, Matt Stafford was horrible for the first three quarters of a measuring stick game against the Cowboys—imagine what he’ll look like on Monday Night Football, and Detroit is making a habit out of falling behind big early in games, which you would think would catch up with them at some point.

Reasons why it’s a bad idea: Chicago’s offensive line is really, really bad and Detroit’s defensive line is really, really good. Do you remember the Bear’s week two loss to the Saints, in which Cutler was sacked six times, and the offense accumulated only 246 yards? The type of game Chicago seems to have a few times a season where the offense is just completely inept? EVERYTHING points to another one of those this week…

Upset of the Week: Oakland Raiders OVER Houston Texans

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions OVER Chicago Bears

Pounding of the Week: New York Giants OVER Seattle Seahawks

Last Week: 8-6-2

Overall: 28-34-2

Some bonus quick hits from last Sunday’s games since I missed my regular ‘Morning After’ column…

1. Night games aren’t living up to expectations…

What we’ve been treated to so far:

Week 1: New England crushed the Dolphins and Oakland edges the Broncos in a game featuring 25 penalties.

Week 2: Atlanta beats the Eagles in a close and surprisingly enjoyable game; the Giants crush the offensively inept Rams.

Week 3: Pittsburgh edges the Colts in boring fashion and Dallas Beats Washington with six field goals. The contest featured only one touchdown.

Week 4: We’re treated to Joe Flacco-Mark Sanchez performances so miserable ESPN immediately canceled the ‘Year of the Quarterback’ and we once again have the fortune of watching Curtis Painter on Monday Night Football.

As bad as those first eight games were, it doesn’t get much better. Miami, Minnesota (twice), Indianapolis (twice), Jacksonville, Kansas City (three times) are yet to play, and on December 12th the Seahawks and Rams will play on Monday Night Football. That’s a 6-3 game waiting to happen.

2. A down year in the AFC?

Last year’s AFC playoff teams: the Patriots, Jets, Steelers, Ravens, Chiefs, and Colts. Two of those teams almost assuredly won’t return to the postseason (Colts and Chiefs), two of them have huge question marks right now (Jets and Steelers), which leaves only two looking strong. The Titans, Texans, Chargers, and Raiders look capable, but there isn’t a single AFC team without at least one big question mark. That might change as the regular season rolls on, but right now the NFC looks like the stronger conference.

3. The Jets look lost on offense…



When your quarterback is average at best, you better be able to run the ball and control the clock. That’s not the case with New York, as they’ve rushed for only 284 yards for a 3.1 yards per carry average. When you’ve got a quarterback like Mark Sanchez—who’s on pace to throw the ball 588 times—that’s not good. I wonder whether New York’s strong defense is enough to compete for a playoff spot if the offense continues to suck…Sunday’s meeting with the Patriots will be really telling.

Week 4 Picks

I went 3-13 last week. God help me if that ever happens again. Betting against the spread is harder than it looks people.

Without further ado, my week four picks:

Detroit Lions +1.5 @ Dallas Cowboys



We’re here folks; we’re at the point where Calvin Johnson can singlehandedly swing games. Dallas doesn’t have a soul who can cover him and as we saw against the Buccaneers, he WILL win games. In other news, Tony Romo is still hurting, Miles Austin is out, Dez Bryant is a likely scratch (and even if he does play he won’t be close to 100 percent) and Felix Jones continues to play with a dislocated shoulder. That's basically every key player on their offense either out or seriously hurting.

Carolina Panthers @ Chicago Bears -5

Last season the Bears went 8-3 against non-playoff teams. They might not be great and they certainly can’t protect jay Cutler, but they’re good enough to beat the Panthers at home—trust me. Don’t get swept up in this Carolina upset pick; Chicago is the better team.

Buffalo Bills -2.5 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Occasionally, you just have to ride it. I’ve doubted Fitzpatrick for three straight weeks now and each week he has politely shoved it back into my face. I’m riding Fitzmagic until his wizardry subsides…

Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns +3

I can’t believe I’m saying this, but Colt McCoy is like a poor man’s Ryan Fitzpatrick. He’s definitely got some FITZMAGIC in him. But enough to beat the Titans? Tentatively, I think so. How long can Tennessee rely on Matt Hasselbeck, considering he hasn’t played a full 16 game season in four years? Chris Johnson hasn’t shown us anything—ANYTHING—in three games, and I’m afraid he might not turn it around this season. With the loss of Kenny Britt Tennessee’s offense will take a step back and the Browns will be there to capitalize.

Minnesota Vikings -6 @ Kansas City Chiefs

Kansas City is an awful, awful team. Not only are they unwatchable, but somewhere along the way Todd Haley angered the football gods. How else can we explain the multitudes of injuries they’ve suffered? Minnesota could be 3-0 right now if they figured out how to play football in the second half. Just be careful if they lead the Chiefs 24-3 at halftime. You were warned.

Washington Redskins -7 @ St. Louis Rams

Rex Grossman is the most predictable quarterback on Earth. As Grossman rolled out of the pocket Monday night with Anthony Spencer hot on his trail, I knew instantaneously that a strip-sack for the game was coming. But give Grossman a decent lead ask him to milk it? He can do that. There’s no way St. Louis can score on the surprisingly great Washington defense.

New Orleans Saints -10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Jacksonville quarterbacks have averaged 124 passing yards per game and have thrown one passing touchdown to five interceptions. Are they version 2.0 of the 10’-11’ Cardinals? I think that tells you everything you need to know. Can we move on?

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Houston Texans -3

Do you know how excited I was when Houston put up 13 quick points on the Saints? Do you know how bitter and full of snark I was when they lost? They’re a good team, they just need to figure out how to score in the red zone…otherwise they would have laid 40+ points on the Saints. Meanwhile, the Steelers beat the Colts only because of the Kerry Collins-Curtis painter dynamic. Imagine if Peyton Manning was playing...

San Francisco 49ers @ Philadelphia Eagles -4.5

San Francisco is blessed with a strong defense and is always a few Ted Ginn kick returns away from blowing the game open, but per the Football Outsiders, their offense is the 29th best in the NFL. They can’t run the ball and Alex Smith has been efficient yet decidedly unspectacular (504 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception on the season). This will all be tested by Philly’s elite pass defense on Sunday.

New York Giants -5 @ Arizona Cardinals

Look, the Giants can do one thing really, really well: rush the passer. Kevin Kolb is skittish under pressure, loves to throw off his back foot and if it weren’t for the greatness of Larry Fitzgerald would be in some seriously deep crap right now. It hurts my soul, but I’ve got to go with the Giants.

Atlanta Falcons -5 @ Seattle Seahawks



It’s true; Atlanta has been mediocre to start the 2011 season. They lost to Tampa Bay last Sunday because they were called for encroachment on a play in which the Bucs were going to simply kneel the football to take some more time off the clock. But it’s also true that Tarvaris Jackson is still quarterbacking the Seahawks. That doesn’t sit well with me…

Miami Dolphins +1 @ San Diego Chargers

It happens every year; the Chargers simply suck in September. Pencil it in with permanent marker as long as Norv Turner is coaching. San Diego blew a game in New England because of four turnovers, barely beat the Chiefs and needed a second-half comeback to defeat the Vikings. Oh, and Philip Rivers has quietly had a bad three weeks. He’s thrown six interceptions to four touchdowns, and for the first time since 2007 he doesn’t have a Quarterback Rating above 100. The Chargers are gonna’ blow this one; I can feel it.

New England Patriots -8 @ Oakland Raiders

This contest will go one of two ways:

Option A: Darren McFadden has a dominant day on the ground; Oakland accumulates 180+ rushing yards and control the time of possession something like 34 to 27. They keep Brady off of the field, pressure him all day with that stellar front four, and don’t allow him to pick their weak—and injured—secondary apart. They win 31-28.

Option B: Belichick’s defense does what it does best (take away the opponent’s greatest strength, like how the Patriots eliminated Antonio Gates in week two) and contains Oakland’s number one ranked rushing attack. Jason Campbell can’t get it done through the air and Brady puts together a masterpiece performance after the Buffalo debacle. New England wins 38-20.

The Oakland pick is cute, but historically, you shouldn’t pick against the Patriots after a loss. Seriously, since the Brady-Belichick era began they’ve only lost back-to-back games five times, and only twice since 2006. Make the safe pick.

Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers -10



Tom Brady has put up video game-like numbers in 2011, but Aaron Rodgers has very quietly been the best player in football. His stat line: 917 yards, 8 touchdowns, 1 interception, 72 percent of passes completed and 8.9 yards per attempt. There is no way he doesn’t light up the 29th best pass defense in football. NO CHANCE.

New York Jets +1 @ Baltimore Ravens

The Jets have been a little disconcerting through three weeks of football. They can’t run the ball (26th per DVOA), struggled to stop the run against Oakland and seem to be missing an identity. They used to rely on the running game and a stellar defense, but they seem to be moving towards a pass heavy offense. Mark Sanchez hasn’t shown us that he’s ready. I trust that New York can turn it around and right the ship, but running back Shonn Greene’s lack of production has to be concerning. He’s gone for only 134 yards on 41 attempts this season. LaDainian Tomlinson has been terrific, but we saw how he broke down late in the 2010 season.

But I trust Baltimore even less and this is the best defense they’ve faced all year. I think the Jets will be fired up for this one…aren’t you excited for Rex Ryan’s jiggling neck fat?!?!

Indianapolis Colts @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6

Bet against THE PAINTER at all costs. Also, isn’t there a way Goodell can pull some strings and replace the Colt’s FOUR night games with something better? Just remember after Painter throws three picks and the Colts offense accumulates under 200 yards of offense that we get this three more times during the season. What did ESPN do to deserve this?

Last Week: 3-13

Overall: 20-28

Upset of the Week: Miami Dolphins OVER San Diego Chargers

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions OVER Dallas Cowboys

Pounding of the Week: Green Bay Packers OVER Denver Broncos