Playoff Ponderings

This is long overdue...

Every postseason has a theme. An identity. A motif. That term paper you wrote about The Great Gatsby in 11th grade might come in handy after all. In 2008, we had the resurgence: two all-time franchises reclaiming their glory once again. In 2009, it was the year of LeBron as James grabbed his first MVP trophy and barnstormed the league to the tune of a 66-16 regular season record. Last year, it was the switch as both the Celtics and Lakers proved true greatness can manifest itself at the whim of the legendary.

This year, it’s the changing of the guard. I’m not the first person to write about it, nor will I be the last. But when searching for a thread that connects the season you can’t ignore the three greatest franchises of the decade that have been, or are very close to falling without even a sniff of the conference finals. The San Antonio Spurs lost to an eight seed, the Los Angeles Lakers were swept by the Mavericks and went out as anything but champions, and the Boston Celtics are on the precipice of defeat; down 3-1 against a team they nearly swept during the regular season. Surging towards the Finals are the Oklahoma City Thunder (with a median age of 22.4 amongst the starting unit), the Memphis Grizzlies (no starters over thirty), the Chicago Bulls (captained by the youngest basketball MVP ever), and the Miami Heat (boasting two of the five best players in the league, Dwyane Wade and LeBron James, ages 29 and 26 respectively).

For the Celtics, Lakers, and Spurs this might have indeed been “The last stand” as Phil Jackson coined his final season on LA’s bench. Boston’s three stars are ages 35, 34, and 33. If you’ve read the tea leaves it looks like Los Angeles is prepared to dissemble its current roster and restock for the future. San Antonio couldn’t beat an eight seed, and their foundation, their rock—Tim Duncan—simply didn’t have a fifth gear to switch to in the playoffs like we all thought he did. The NBA’s recent talent flux—its youth infusion—is finally catching up with the old staples that have captured our attention for the better part of a decade. Say goodbye to the Paul Pierces, Kobe Bryant’s, and Tim Duncan’s; welcome the Kevin Durant’s and Derrick Rose’s.

Now that I’ve put myself in a dark enough mood, let’s answer some of the most biting questions, let’s recap the most endearing moments, and let’s try to make sense of the best NBA postseason ever.

1. Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant WILL figure this out; it’s just a matter of when…

The Jordan era Chicago Bulls basically invented the classic championship-team formula. It goes like this: 1 alpha-dog who can be relied upon at the end of close games + 1 to 2 elite players who can contribute in multiple ways + 4 to 5 role players who have one elite skill=title. Look at any championship team over the past 25 years and I guarantee it follows that formula—almost to a tee. But just like this season is a changing of the guard, it may also be the year we look back on as the conception of a new winning formula.

We all want Russell Westbrook to fit conveniently into the role of Scottie Pippen to Kevin Durant’s Jordan. We want the Thunder to fit nicely into the prototypical winning formula of basketball. But you know what? Maybe that’s not meant to be for these two. Maybe Russell and Durant will redefine what we know about the NBA and what it takes to win a championship. Maybe they’ll signal the beginning of a new era of basketball champions. It’s pretty clear that Westbrook is too good to simply defer to Durant…he’s no game manager.

Westbrook takes a prohibitive amount of shit for his perceived recklessness. Just the way he explodes to the hoop or forgoes the simple pass to charge into the paint irks people. “He’s got Kevin Durant on his team!” people say. “Why does he take 25 shots a game when he plays with the NBA’s two time scoring champ?” we wonder. But that’s Westbrook, and where would the Thunder be without his relentless drives and timely buckets?

Durant and Westbrook, LeBron and Wade—they’re changing the way we think about basketball. They’re challenging the conventional wisdom. Until now, we’ve never seen a team find success this way. The pairing of Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant could prove to be unstoppable, or it could fall apart. I’m already reading comparisons to the apocalyptic Marbury-Garnett pairing of the early 2000’s. Somehow, I think they’ll figure it out.

2. You want parity? You got parity…

Throughout the season much has been devoted to the gap between small-market and big-market clubs. How can anyone compete with the Celtics, Heat, and Bulls in the east or the Lakers and Mavericks out west? The Thunder, Hawks, Grizzlies, and Blazers have something to say about that.

Oklahoma became relevant not only because they snagged a franchise player in Kevin Durant, but because GM Sam Presti has been conservative with contracts and hasn’t spent big bucks on any free agents. He’s no David Kahn. He’s built the Thunder almost solely through the draft, and consequently, the Thunder have no starters over 27. The gap is still a pressing issue in the NBA, but the Thunder, Grizz, and Blazers have laid out the blueprint on how to smartly build a championship contending team.

Unlike previous seasons, there isn’t a clear favorite. Remember how Los Angeles rolled through the postseason last year or how Boston kept on beating everyone? Every team remaining has at least one big hole. I can think of a few reasons why each team won’t win the title—and it’s maddening.

Here’s how I see it:

-Boston Celtics: Too old. Kevin Garnett can’t consistently bring it and Rajon Rondo—no matter how large his hands may be—can’t play at a high level with one arm.

-Memphis Grizzlies: Pack the paint and defend their bigs. Memphis lacks outside shooting and elite guard play so how do they cope? Oklahoma City laid out the blueprint when they destroyed the Grizzles for the first three quarters of game three.

-Chicago Bulls: Chicago lacks a second play-maker outside of Derrick Rose, and there’s a gaping, cavernous hole at the 2-guard spot. Without Rose their offense goes from pretty good to holy balls awful.

-Atlanta Hawks: An unnatural fascination with isolation plays for Joe Johnson and Jamal Crawford. Not enough ball movement.

-Dallas Mavericks: Jason Kidd is about as incapable of defending fast point guards as an oak tree. DeShawn Stevenson is starting at the 2 spot. Yes, DeShawn Stevenson. Do they have enough offensive options?

Oklahoma City Thunder: Does the Russell Westbrook-Kevin Durant dynamic work itself out like I think it will? Kendrick Perkins said himself that he’s playing at 60 percent—is that enough?

-Miami Heat: Can the Heat really win a title with LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh playing well below expectations, Joel Anthony(!), and a bunch of role-players not fitting well into their roles?

3. What happened to Pau Gasol?

Rumors were swirling across the internet that a recent brake-up between Gasol and his girlfriend and a rift with Kobe Bryant was to blame for Gasol’s like-a-Bosh playoff performance. Unsurprisingly, and most unfortunately, those rumors were proven false after ESPN tracked Gasol down for comment. He blamed his lackluster ten playoff games on tired legs and some tweaks to the offense.

That “tweaks to the offense” comment is particularly interesting, as it became painfully evident that the Lakers usual beautiful triangle offense was not working. Luke Walton also had some interesting comments on the offense, saying, “It was basic this year, a lot of simple aspects of the offense, not the second and third and counter options that make it so hard to guard especially in a playoffs series, when everyone else runs sets and we know what sets they’re running, where they’re going to go.”

For those unfamiliar with the triangle concept, Tex Winter (its creator) described it like this, “It relied upon quick passing and very few play calls, so the idea was uncomplicated. Players moved the ball quickly while they moved to certain spots on the floor. Since they weren’t running plays, but instead using tendencies, the defense couldn’t anticipate their movement, and the tendencies depended on where the defense moved.”

It makes you wonder what went wrong with the Lakers after a memorable three-year run and whether simply mastering the offense and a greater commitment to defense would spur another run to a championship banner.

NBA: the National Bat-shit crazy Association

Ten things NO ONE expected to happen in these playoffs:

1. Peja Stojakovic playing a crucial role on a title contender: Dallas needed a stone-cold shooter to space the floor for Dirk and Terry. Beyond all comprehension, Stojakovic is playing that role to a tee. Let’s not forget, this is the same guy who was once waived by the Raptors, traded to the Pacers for Ron Artest after the Brawl, and was once traded for the draft rights to Andrew Betts. If you don’t know who Andrew Betts is, it’s okay, because I don’t either.

2. Mike Miller scoring fewer points than Joel Anthony: Joel Anthony, through the playoffs has scored 41 points. Miller has scored three. Excuse me?

3. Marc Gasol being the best Gasol: Marc’s averages during the Oklahoma City series: 19 points, 13 rebounds, 3 assists, 3 blocks, and 1.5 steals. Pau’s averages during the Dallas series: 13 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists, 0.8 blocks, and 0.5 steals. Aren’t brotherly rivalries great?!

4. J.J Berea gave a post-game sideline interview: Yes, yes he did.

5. Rajon Rondo cemented his status as the most badass, balls-out, hardcore mother f’'er in the league: Recall this (#6) story from 2008, when the Celtics won the championship. Rondo suffered a bone bruise in game three of the Finals that was so painful he could barely move. But, he played. And then his arm bent the wrong way after he awkwardly landed on it in game 3 against the Heat and he continued to play—and make a difference. A Chuck Norris-ian effort.

6. Shaq making little difference: I’m just kidding, everyone expected a hobbled Shaq to make about as much difference on the court as a limbless Rajon Rondo would. I will now dive into a bathtub of sulfuric acid.

7. The Hawks contending: It looked like they quit on their coach a month ago. Now they’re in a tight battle with the Chicago Bulls for a crack at the conference finals. Their playbook consists of Joe Johnson—Jamal Crawford Iso’s and Jeff Teague floaters, but still. Pretty impressive.

8. Carlos Boozer becoming many, many people’s least favorite basketball player on Earth: It may be the spray-on beard, it may be the way he screams like a crazed wildebeest after every rebound, every bucket, or anything that ever happens on the court, or it may be the way he wears a towel on his head on the bench, but Carlos Boozer has become America’s least favorite basketball player. LeBron James, you have been spared.

9. Jeff Teague’s improbably great play: Not only is his face the size of a volleyball, Teague has played better than Atlanta’s injured starting point guard, Kirk Hinrich. The man has scored 17 points a game against Chicago and has hit approximately 456 floaters in the lane. Seriously, no one in the league can shoot a floater quite like Jeff Teague. He’s the FREAKING MASTER.

10. TWO Laker cheap shots in the deciding game four, none of which were made by Ron Artest: Two of the most mellow guys you’ll ever hear of off the court out-crazied Ron Artest. I have no explanation for Andrew Bynum’s recent slew of dangerous shots, but I would surmise the Kardashians nefarious influence has poisoned Lamar Odom. Quick, TRADE HIM.

FEARLESS PREDICTIONS

Simply because I enjoy embarrassing myself, here’s how I think the rest of the playoffs play out. Considering I picked Kansas to win the big dance, approach with caution.

For the sake of argument, let’s assume Miami takes care of Boston (that sound you hear is the toilet as I attempt to flush my head down it), Chicago beats Atlanta (not-that-big of an assumption), and Oklahoma City beats Memphis ( a kind of big assumption). If any of that doesn’t happen my predictions immediately go to shit, but whatever. Let the meaningless conjecturing commence!

Conference Finals

Oklahoma City Thunder OVER Dallas Mavericks in 6

Weird, I know. My reasoning boils down to the matchups. Here’s the way I see it:

1. Serge Ibaka vs. Dirk Nowitzki: There’s no way Ibaka can lock him down, but he can at least hope to contain him. Ibaka is precisely the type of long, athletic defender Nowitzki historically has some difficulty with. Considering the Mavs are on a streak of proving the pundits wrong, maybe I’m the next victim, but Serge should fare better than the corpse of Pau Gasol. Of that, I’m certain. Kind of.

2. Kevin Durant vs. whoever: Here’s where Dallas REALLY misses Caron Butler—a very capable defender. Shawn Marion is the likely matchup (BLEGH), or the Mavs will dust off Corey Brewer, thus destroying the offense. Either way, Dallas loses.

3. Russell Westbrook vs. Jason Kidd: Oh God. Kidd has had the great fortune of defending Andre Miller (age 35), Derek Fisher (36), and Kobe Bryant (whose first-step is gone) the first two rounds. Now he’s drawn Russell Westbrook, EXACTLY the type of guard he can’t deal with. This could get ugly.

4. James Harden vs. either Jason Terry or DeShawn Stevenson: Harden can defend both and has the size advantage on Terry to either take him into the post or shoot over. Plus, he’s a very capable defender.

I’d love to see Dirk win a title as much as anyone, but I think Oklahoma City has matchup advantages across the line-up. Mark Cuban will now bathe himself in liquid nitrogen.

Miami Heat OVER Chicago Bulls in 7

I don’t want to believe the Heat can win a title in a season this competitive with two and a half guys. But I think they can, and I think they’ll beat the Chicago Bulls. When Kyle Korver is on the floor, Chicago’s offense is better. Unfortunately, Korver couldn’t defend George Washington. Dwyane Wade will do everything short of stick Korver’s head on a totem pole and eat his heart for lunch if he gets the chance. But if Korver doesn’t get minutes, Chicago’s offense will suffer, especially against a defense the caliber of Miami’s. Quite a conundrum for Coach Tom Thibodeau—and against Atlanta he’s chosen the Keith Bogans, Ronnie Brewer duo over Korver. Either way, Chicago loses.

Finals

Oklahoma City Thunder OVER Miami Heat in 7

Two of the more unconventional teams in the NBA go head-to-head—I like it. Here’s my greatest fear about Oklahoma City: they’re just not ready. Talent-wise, I think they’re totally there, but we just don’t know if this is the year they can put it all together. If the Westbrook-Durant dynamic doesn’t work itself out than the Thunder haven’t got a chance. But like Wade and LeBron have figured it out, I think Durant and Westbrook will do the same.

I’ll doubt Wade and LeBron’s title chances until they’re bathed in confetti and bear-hugging Pat Riley at mid-court just because this Miami squad violates every basketball principle I’ve ever learned. Like: you need 8-9 legitimate players to win, and you need a clearly defined alpha-dog/crunch time scorer, and you need an elite post presence, and if your third best player is terrified of a raucous crowd because he’s never played in a remotely important game in his entire life you’re probably screwed.

I hoped and prayed my Boston Celtics would be that indomitable force to knock them on their ass and send LeBron back to south beach in tears.

Oklahoma City, you’re all I have left.