I’m a Heat hater.
I hate the way Dwyane Wade acted the part of general manager and convinced LeBron James and Chris Bosh to join him in Miami. I hate the way the trio held a championship celebration before a single game was even played. I hate Pat Riley because he’s a douche. I hate LeBron’s receding hairline and I hated LeBron’s narcissistic summer of self-entitlement. Everything about it was eminently hateable. Success doesn’t come easy in life, so why should it for the Heatles?
But then the season started and the Heat struggled. And struggled some more. Then they hit their groove and ripped off a 19-1 streak. Then they struggled again, and according to Eric Spoelstra, players were “crying” in the locker room. It was intoxicating; especially as my beloved Boston Celtics hadn’t lost yet to Miami and the Heat were a paltry 18-20 against playoff teams heading into April.
Deep down, I think I’m afraid. I think every fellow Heat hater across the country is afraid. Why? Because if Miami can manage to win the title with two and a half real players (yes, I am counting Chris Bosh as half a player because no one knows whether screaming, aggressive Bosh will show up, or his more Boozer-like counterpart) and a bunch of cast-offs, underperformers, and 12th men we’re all done—the decade is lost. LeBron, Wade, and Bosh will get some reinforcements—it’s inevitable. Pat Riley will pull some strings, work his magic, and lure some free agents enamored by the powerful trio tearing it up in South Beach. So if the Heat can manage to win it all in year one, when everyone was learning to play with each other, Mike Miller playing at approximately 15 percent effectiveness, Udonis Haslem injured, Joel Anthony starting at center, and AARP member Mike Bibby pretending to play defense then LeBron’s seven-title proclamation might come true after all. God forbid.
In their way stands the Dallas Mavericks. The much maligned Dallas Mavericks many predicted to bow out in the first round to the Portland Trailblazers (including me). The team led by a 32 year-old foreign power forward, a 38 year-old point guard, 33 year-old small forward, oft-injured journeyman center, and a starting two-guard once thought of as the next Jordan. Seriously. Oh, and don’t forget about the 4-foot-6 garden gnome known as J.J Barea who comes off the bench and inexplicably gives Dallas a quick twenty points in half the time. I won’t say this is a battle between the new guard and old guard, because that’s way too corny, but the contrast is stark between the Heat and Mavs.
Mavericks basketball is all about the ball movement, Miami revolves around its two best players—LeBron James and Dwyane Wade—and their ability to create for others. Dallas is ten deep while Miami has maybe, MAYBE five guys you would comfortably go to war with. The Kidd-Nowitzki-Terry triumvirate has been together for three-plus years while LeBron and Wade haven’t played with each other longer than seven months. Dallas has a beautiful offense while Miami boasts a formidable defense. The Heat’s big three has lingering crunch time questions while Dirk shines in the closing minutes. Miami is bombastic while Dallas is reserved.
And then there was 2006…when Miami beat Dallas in the Finals 4-2 after they lost the first two games of the series. You know the rest; Wade got to the line if he was sneezed on, Udonis Haslem abused Dirk Nowitzki so bad defensively a lawsuit was filed, and debated raged concerning the amount of work Pat Riley had done on his face. The consensus was that the better team lost, in part because of the officiating, but also because Nowitzki, up to the Finals, was having one of the all-time great playoff runs averaging a 28-10 and uncorking one patented “Dirk” game with 50 points on 26 shots, five three’s, and 12 boards for taste. Then he imploded against Miami, shooting 39 percent, playing passively, and exhibiting some of the worst body language I’ve ever seen. Think Kevin Durant from the Western Conference Finals only pretend he has blond hair, is white, and shoots awkward fall-away 15-footers off of one leg. That’s Dirk Nowitzki circa 2006.
Thinking about it some more, the similarities between 2006 and 2011 are eerie, aren’t they? Dirk is once again uncorking a playoff run for the ages. Just like 2006 he’s storming into the Finals on one of the better playoff runs ever. I wrote about it in an earlier post, but Dirk’s run has a chance to go down as the best ever assuming his Finals performance lives up to what he’s accomplished the past four weeks. But that’s assuming Dirk doesn’t totally fall apart like he did five years ago.
I don’t think the big German will implode again, and here’s why: He’s more physical. Did you see the way Nick Collison played him in round three? 2006 Dirk would have folded like a lawn chair. He would have bitched because of the foul calls he wasn’t getting. 2011 Dirk could care less. One play is a microcosm of all this: in game four as Dallas was in the midst of a furious comeback Dirk was very clearly bumped by Collison on the way up for a shot. Nowitzki merely adjusted his body and launched some kind of rainbow jumper from his right shoulder that looked like it was being shot from a catapult. He didn’t get the call (which he should have) but it didn’t matter. He nailed it. It didn’t even touch the rim. 2006 Dirk would give up post position just like 2011 Durant. I don’t know if Nowitzki got stronger, savvier, or toughened up but you can’t just bully him out of position anymore. He gets to exactly the spot he likes, backs you down, and then sends home a 15-footer that will rip your heart out. Could you say the same about Dirk Nowitzki five-plus years ago? I don’t think so.
Some unanswered and provoking questions heading into the Finals:
1. Can two guys beat five?
It’s been the question of the season, hasn’t it? Could LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh, and some warm bodies beat the Celtics, Magic, Lakers, or Spurs? So far, the answer has been yes…sort of.
Miami’s path through the postseason has been easier than anyone expected. They drew a Boston squad in round two devastated by injury and trade—with a Rondo playing at MAYBE 25 percent, and a Kevin Garnett unable to totally bring it game after game. Then they played Chicago, a team with a perimeter star defended by a bigger, totally defensively capable superstar. They didn’t have to play Orlando and Dwight Howard, nor did they draw a Lakers team rolling on all cylinders. Last year’s Lakers would have sliced right through the Heat like a hot knife through butter. Andrew Bynum would be giggling on his way to a 20-15 every night.
But I digress; can Miami’s “Big 3” beat the Mavericks “Big 10”? Is LeBron, Wade, and Bosh creating open looks for a bunch of lesser players enough to win an NBA championship? The way they rolled through Philadelphia, Boston, and Chicago you would think so…but…but…there’s just one thing:
2. Is Dirk Nowitzki—right now—the best player in this series?
Dirk is playing at a yet unseen level of efficiency, like ever. He’s shooting 52 percent from the field, 52 percent from deep, and 93 percent at the line. Against Oklahoma City he went 59-61 from the stripe. He’s scoring just over 28 points per game on 18 shot attempts. That is UNREAL. And everything Dallas does on the offensive end goes through Nowitzki. He opens up shots for everybody. His assist numbers might be low (2.7 a game) but if the NBA counted hockey assists, his totals would be through the roof. In fact, I think the stat guys should give Dirk half of Jason Kidd’s assists because Nowitzki opens up such gigantic passing lanes you could fit LeBron’s ego through them. And you know what I love about Dirk more than anything else? He NEVER forces anything; every shot he takes comes in the flow of the game. He’s never a ball-stopper and his passing out of the post is better than ever. In case you can’t tell, my love for Dirk Nowitzki is at an all-time high.
But still, is he playing better than LeBron James—fresh off of shutting down MVP point guard Derrick Rose on one end and hitting clutch shot after clutch shot on the other? By a hair, I’d have to say Nowitzki. So if Dallas has the best player in the series, what’s the problem? Miami has that other guy, Dwyane Wade—you may have heard of him. This takes us back to the original question, is Miami’s big three better than the Maverick’s depth? Is LeBron and Wade’s ability to create for others enough to beat Dirk and the Dirkettes?
I think it could be for one simple reason: Miami’s success and style of play is more replicable and consistent than Dallas’s. Which leads us to the next question…
3. Doesn’t the Maverick’s hot shooting have to cool off at some point?
You would think so, but through a month of basketball at the highest level it has yet to taper off. Dallas is shooting the three-ball at a 39 percent clip, and their best shooters—Nowitzki, Terry, and Peja—are shooting 52, 46, and 40 percent respectively. Considering Dallas hit from deep at a 37 percent clip during the regular season you would think a regression to the mean would be coming at some point. But here’s the kicker, throughout the playoffs Miami has been the third worst team at defending the three-point line, allowing opponents to hit 39 percent of their long-range shots.
I suggest you read this Brian Windhorst piece over at ESPN.com, because he does a fantastic job outlining Miami’s defensive strategy, and why, exactly it could come back to bite them. Windhorst says, “The Heat, meanwhile, play a style of defense designed around bringing help to the middle and leaving long-range shooters open” and, “Otherwise, though, the Heat plan to stick to their defensive style even if it means risking giving up those dangerous 3-pointers.” Miami tends to overcome that weakness with the size, speed, and athleticism of their elite wing players—meaning James and Wade. It worked against Chicago and their paltry three-point shooting but can it do the same against the best three-point shooting team in basketball?
Piggy-backing off the three-point shooting quandary, isn’t what Miami does more sustainable than what Dallas does? Meaning the Heat’s defense will be consistently terrific but will the Mavericks continue to amaze us with their long range marksmanship? LeBron and Wade are consistently brilliant because even if their mid-range games aren’t working they can drive into the paint on a whim and create something out of nothing. And if nothing else, Miami will ALWAYS have their defense to fall back on. I can’t say the same for Dallas.
4. Isn’t all the karma on the Maverick’s side…?
Seriously, that 2006 series was a travesty. Wade got more phantom calls in that one series than Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant did the entire 2010-2011 regular season. And then there’s that whole thing about Dwyane Wade luring James and Bosh to Miami, possibly guilty of all kinds of tampering charges along the way. This is the first year the “Big 2.5” has been together, while Kidd, Nowitzki, and Terry have been knocked out of the postseason early each of the past three seasons. How is it fair that Bosh, Wade, and James win a title together before Nowitzki, Kidd, and Terry? Come on Basketball Gods; is there no justice in the world???
5. How improbable has the Maverick’s success been?
Let’s put this in perspective:
-Peja Stojakovic—who hasn’t played meaningful minutes in two years—is the third wheel in the most devastating shooting triumvirate of the playoffs along with Dirk Nowitzki and Jason Terry. And he’s even had some nifty forays into the paint and played some defense…what is this 2003?
-Jason Kidd is 38 and was playing so poorly towards the end of the season he sat out for ten days and had hip replacement surgery (I’m only kidding about one of those). So it’s particularly improbable that Kidd played terrific defense for two series in a row, knocked down at least half a dozen cold-blooded threes against Oklahoma City, and is playing his best basketball since he arrived in Dallas three years ago.
-Jose Juan Barea—all four feet of him—is contributing HUGE minutes to a Finals team. I keep thinking there’s a catch to his game, like he’s not really that good except he’s so short opponents don’t pay enough attention to him, but I couldn’t be more wrong. Barea is INCREDIBLY crafty at using the rim to lay the ball in—either going with his floater or dropping the ball in HIGH off glass. He never loses his dribble and plays that little pick-and-roll with Dirk to perfection. As a short guy, I’m so jealous…
Regardless of who wins this series, demons will be exercised. Either LeBron James will finally win his title or Dirk Nowitzki will banish the haunting memories of 2006 and take one step closer towards the pantheon of greats.
But who wins? My brain tells me to go with the Heat while my heart yearns for a Dallas title. Logic says that the Maverick’s shooting percentage will regress and that Dirk—in the midst of a flawless postseason—will falter at least once. Logic dictates Miami’s tremendous pick-and-roll defense will put a stop to J.J Barea’s reckless but effective incursions in the paint, and that LeBron James has a better chance than anyone slowing down Nowitzki.
But that’s what logic says, and basketball says screw you to logic.
Dallas in seven, barely. Nowitzki receives his well-deserved Finals MVP trophy and Mark Cuban finally spews all the trash talk and “nobody believed in us!” bullshit we know he’s been holding in.
One more year LeBron, than the decade is officially yours.
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