We're all gonna' die!

What's going on? The Colts are 2-2, the Chiefs are 3-0, Randy Moss is disgruntled (oh wait, that's normal), and the Redskins are mediocre (oops, I can't help myself). Is this it, is judgement day upon us? Has the guy up stairs decided to use the strangest football season in recent memory to signal the advent of Armageddon? Maybe...but probably not.

Parity, defined as close or exact equivalence is the holy grail of sports. Who wants to watch three or four teams continuously dominate their league? If you trash all your team associations and devotion, you will realize that singular dominance is boring; especially if they’re never even challenged. Thankfully, in the 21st century parity in the National Football League has become greater than it ever has before. And threw the first four weeks of the 2010-2011 NFL season the parity is particularly stunning and so, so palpable. It’s truly anyone’s game.


As week four comes to a close, one team remains undefeated: The Kansas City Chiefs. If you took a poll before the season between what do people think is more likely: The Chiefs starting 3-0, or the Colts 2-2, what would people vote for? Probably no one, because they would call you a moron. But in today’s National Football League, with talent so close and injuries such a real threat, crazy things happen. As with salary constraints, free agency, better scouting, and greater player influence it is getting harder and harder for super bowl winning teams to stay together.

Although parity has been a reality in the NFL more than any other sport in the past forty years, dynasties still emerge, and teams continue to dominate. For every decade there is a team that clearly lies above the pack (Patriots of the 2000’s. Cowboys of the 90’s, 49ers of the 80’s, Steelers of the 70’s), but in this new decade who will it be, or better yet, will there be one? It’s a valid question in this new era of sports, and one not easily answered.

But enough with the philosophical questions (don’t want to ramble too much); a better topic is this season. With no clear cut contenders to have emerged over the first quarter of the season (no, the Chiefs aren’t super bowl contenders), parity seems to be at its greatest yet. It’s very early in the season; I realize this, but look at how seasons over the past decade have started. They all follow a similar pattern, and at least one sure fire Super Bowl contender emerges in the first four weeks nearly every time. Let’s look at last season, in which five teams started the season 4-0 (all reached 6-0), with two of them (Colts, Saints) remaining undefeated until weeks fifteen and fourteen, respectively. With high flying offenses and MVP caliber quarterbacks the Saints and Colts were jockeying for spots one and two on power rankings across the country.

Maybe last year was the outlier, but the point remains that threw four weeks there is NO dominant team. Sure, five or six have shown bright, but unlike last year and previous ones there is no clear emerging favorite.

Look at the favorites that have emerged in the first four weeks over the last three years:

2009: Saints (4-0, outscored opponents 144 to 66; won Super Bowl), Colts (4-0, Manning=1,336 passing yards, beat three quality opponents), Vikings (4-0, Favre completes the team to everyone’s surprise on his way to arguably his best season as a pro)

2008: Titans (4-0, hold opponents to 11.5 ppg), Giants (Manning has one of the hottest four game streaks of his pro career: 1,032 yards, 6 TDs-1 interception, 64% completions), Cowboys (3-1, two big NFC wins puts them in command of the division)

2007: Patriots (4-0, 37 ppg, Brady=13 TDs-2 picks; lost in Super Bowl), Colts (4-0, two big division wins, second best offense behind Pats), Cowboys (4-0, outscore opponents 151-72, Romo on fire), Packers (4-0, Favre is on fire)

Some pretty dominant teams reared their heads over the first quarter season right? Already, a picture was forming of who would contend for a spot in the big game within each conference. This year, things are much hazier. Who would you pin as dominant? Most would say the Steelers, but they are by no means dominant. They have a tremendous defense, but still have big questions along the O-line and at the receiver position. The Saints? After nearly losing to two of the five worst teams in the league, who can say they’re contenders? The Patriots? So many question marks along the young defense…The Colts? They are banged up and have already lost to two divisional rivals…The Ravens? Although they have emerged from they’re recent vegetative offensive state, they’re secondary is questionable and Flacco hasn’t necessarily lived up to expectations.

That’s not to say any of the afore mentioned teams can’t assert themselves (I’m sure someone eventually will), it just breaks some major trends that through four weeks of football, the big picture remains so hazy.

Some team will make a run…the Chiefs? I don’t think so…