Thursday, October 7, 2010

Week 5 Picks...Done Right

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills (20-17)

Toughest game of the week to predict (in fact I wondered if it was even worth it, I mean, do they show Jacksonville play on T.V?). The Jags’ are like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde…which version is going to show up? Unfortunately, they rarely piece together two strong performances (especially on the road) in a row, and after such a strong performance in Indy it would be quite logical to call for the Bill’s first (and possibly only) win of the season. But Jacksonville just has too many strong matchups across the board to go with the Bison. The Bills have the worst run defense in the league…Jacksonville has Maurice Jones-Drew, you do the math.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Cincinnati Bengals (30-17)

Cincinnati isn’t a great team…neither is Tampa Bay. But I like the cats to come out angry at home (after an embarrassing loss), and finally put some of their decent offensive talent to use.

Atlanta Falcons @ Cleveland Browns (17-14)

Another tough contest to call; the browns have been playing well as of late, while Atlanta is coming off of two games they had no business winning. But with Cleveland coming off an emotional win against division rival Cincinnati, and the chance that the Falcons might actually get it together I’m going with Atlanta…even on the road (we’re they were 3-5 last year). When a game seems this close, I go with the more talented roster, and that’s got to be the Falcons.

St. Louis Rams @ Detroit Lions (27-20)

Sam Bradford has looked really good so far…like really, really good. The Lion’s secondary has been really awful so far, like horrendous. That’s a matchup that undoubtedly favors St. Louis. The Rams defense has also played surprisingly well, which in my mind gives them the edge. With Best (if he’s a 100%) and Megatron Detroit has an explosive offense which points to a fairly high scoring game. I like the Rams in a shootout based on a superior matchup against Detroit’s defense.

Kansas City Chiefs @ Indianapolis Colts (24-17)

The suspense is palpable as the league’s last remaining undefeated team goes up against 2009’s last undefeated team. Although it would be awesome for Kansas City’s improbable run to continue, it will be nearly impossible for them to beat a pissed-off Manning led Colts team. This might be one of those games where Manning just won’t let them lose, no matter the injuries or adversity.

Green Bay Packers @ Washington Redskins (30-20)

What do we make of the Green Bay Packers? Once a trendy Super Bowl pick, they just look like another underachieving playoff hopeful. The loss of Ryan Grant has made their offense one dimensional, and the season ending injury suffered by MLB Nick Barnett hurts the defense. There are certain things powerful teams NEED to do, and that is to beat teams they’re better than (thanks captain obvious). I like this to be a statement game for the Pack as they walk into Fed-Ex field and put up thirty (as long as they don’t have eighteen penalties).

Chicago Bears @ Carolina Panthers (13-3)

Todd Collins is the starting quarterback…I don’t have anything funny to say, it’s just bad. After witnessing the atrocity that occurred Monday Night (Yes, the Giants were terrible to, they were fortunate to face an offensive line that couldn’t block a charging Yorkshire terrier), It’s hard to pick Chicago to win another game, ever. But….The Panther’s pass rush hasn’t exactly been awesome through four games, which should give Collins time back in the pocket to make some reads, and miss his receivers. For his sake, you better hope Matt Forte has a big game…which is like asking Randy Moss for a little loyalty (that’s the first of hundreds of cheap shots that will be thrown at Randy Moss over the next several months…I’m sorry, but its all part of the grieving process). In addition, Chicago, having one of the better run defenses in the NFL should be able to put a stop to Carolina’s greatest (only) strength. And with the loss of Steve Smith Carolina’s offense went from worst to worstest.

Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens (27-21)

Denver has the league’s most prolific aerial game, while the Ravens possess its most feared pass defense…something’s got to give. With literally no semblance of a running game, Denver will once again have to throw, throw, and throw. The Raven’s perceived weak secondary has far exceeded expectations yet has faced the feared quartet of Mark Sanchez (not the same man week one as he has been of late), Carson Palmer, Seneca Wallace, and Charlie Batch. Thus, it’s not a stretch to say they will face they’re toughest challenge yet against Orton and company. Denver has struggled mightily in the Red Zone this year, which could prove to be the difference in the game. Look for both teams to put up some serious yardage, yet for Baltimore to pull this one out based on Denver’s red zone woes, and the ability to run the ball (thus, control the clock).

New York Giants @ Houston Texans (24-16)

Is the Giants offense as ghastly as it looked Monday night, or was that merely a product of how stunned they were that they’re defense was resuscitated? I don’t know, but I’m sure Eli felt Cutler’s pain (I sure did). With Houston’s left tackle Duane Brown still completing his suspension, I don’t see them controlling New York’s fearsome front four. It won’t be nearly as ugly as it was against Chicago, but they will definitely put a lot of pressure on Schaub. And with the possibility that Andre Johnson misses the game, I see the Texan’s offense struggling. In addition, Houston has had the worst pass defense in the league, which could lead to Eli Manning having a big day. All this should lead to the Giants putting a clamp on a surging (yet undermanned) Texans team.

New Orleans Saints @ Arizona Cardinals (38-10)

Remember what I said about statement games for play-off teams? If New Orleans wants to rid themselves of the Super Bowl hang-over stink, a good first step would be to annihilate the abysmal Cardinals. After poor performances against the combined 0-8 49ers and Panthers, that’s exactly what should happen. I like the Saints to come out angry and quickly jump the Cardinals for a huge lead by half time. I think New Orleans will abuse recently named starter Max Hall (as Larry Fitzgerald continues to plead to Kurt Warner to return…just kidding, that’s not happening…as far as we know), and win BIG.

San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders (35-24)

San Diego has won their last twelve meetings with the Raiders…no reason that should change this Sunday. The Chargers have so many advantageous matchups across the board, and are so vastly more talented that they should massacre Oakland.

Tennessee Titans @ Dallas Cowboys (30-17)

CJ2.5K needs to rush for 178.5 yards per game to reach his proclaimed mark of 2500. At his current rate he might not be able to do that in two seasons. With defenders putting extra men in the box to stop Johnson, it will be up to Vince to keep defenses honest with not only his arm, but his legs. Without a decent passing game, it’s just impossible for the running game to succeed, even with a back of Chris Johnson’s caliber. I don’t have enough reason to believe Vince can do that, and Dallas should be able to engineer a fearsome pass rush on the emotionally sensitive QB. As long as the Cowboy’s offense builds on its excellent offensive performance against Houston they will be fine, and coming off a bye week Dallas has the clear edge.

Philadelphia Eagles @ San Francisco 49ers (20-13)

Three things have really upset me this year: 1. the departure of Randy Moss (though I’m coming to terms) 2. The injury to Michael Vick; who was making an inspirational return to the NFL 3. The horrible play of the San Francisco 49ers. Two of those are in play for this game, which means I will be watching. With Vick out for at least another week, I think the 49ers will finally get a much needed win. I mean, did you see how Kevin Kolb played last week?...it wasn’t pretty. Also, did anyone else notice DeSean Jackson moping around towards the end of the game? I’m surprised he didn’t do this:

Will this be DeSean Jackson on Sunday?...it's definitely in play.


Minnesota Vikings @ New York Jets (20-14)

The most interesting game of the season thus far. So many things are in play…does Moss open up the Vikings offense enough to allow All Day to run roughshod?...do Favre and Moss immediately connect and create the prolific passing attack Vikings fans everywhere are imagining?...does Brett Favre fire Brad Childress? Two and a half extremely viable occurrences…we’ll see how it plays out. That’s what makes this game so challenging to call, on one hand the Moss acquisition will make it difficult for the Jet’s defense to game plan, but on the other its impossible to know how the Minnesota offense will perform. Based on the past three games I’ll go with the hot hand…your New York J-E-T-S

Last Week: 9-5

Overall: 25-21 (better, better)

Lock of the week: Dallas Cowboys OVER Tennessee Titans

Upset of the week: New York Giants OVER Houston Texans

Pounding of the week: New Orleans Saints OVER Arizona Cardinals

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