Because of how compelling the offseason was with the “Summer of LeBron” and more star player movement than you could shake Greg Gumbel’s hairpiece at, the expectations for 2010-2011 were through the roof. More people had at least a passing interest in professional basketball than I could ever remember.
Some of the biggest and juiciest storylines heading into the season:
1) The Heatles: From Dwyane Wade creating some form of suspense by callously visiting the Bulls a second time to convince the world the Bulls had a chance, to LBJ taking his talents to South Beach on live television, to the trio holding a narcissistic championship celebration before anything was actually accomplished, to ESPN creating the Heat Watch to specifically cater to America’s voracious appetite for Heat-related news—the foundation was laid for the Miami Heat to become sport’s most hated franchise. And then every ESPN analyst this side of Bill Simmons decided Miami was the championship favorite and some even thought they had 70+ wins in them.
2) The Thunder: Kevin Durant was the pre-ordained MVP and the Thunder were everyone’s trendy pick to win the west. Could they eclipse sixty wins, overtake the Lakers maybe? For my money the most entertaining team to watch in basketball.
3) Blakemania: There were rumblings from Blake Griffin’s summer league appearances that Griffin was truly something special. No one expected Blake to devastate rims at a rate rivaled only by Shawn Kemp and Dominique Wilkins. As the season wore on and Griffin continued to ravage rims and foreign centers it appeared with more and more certainty that Twitter’s ultimate purpose was chronicling Blakemania.
4) Melo-drama: Here’s what we knew for sure heading into the season: Carmelo Anthony wanted out of Denver, absolutely didn’t want to play for the New Jersey Nets, and absolutely wanted to play for the New York Knicks. Up until the trade deadline we were taken for a roller-coaster ride as we were alternatively led to believe Melo was going to stay in Denver, then that he was going to the Nets but wouldn’t sign a long-term contract, then that he was going to stay after all, again we thought he might be traded to the Nets, and finally after every analyst decided Melo to New York was not feasible for Denver, he of course, was traded to the New York Knicks. And just to screw all the NBA analysts a little bit more the Nuggets embarked on a rollicking 18-6 stretch after the trade in which they finally seemed to play a brand of fast-paced ball the team was meant to all along. You couldn’t make this stuff up.
Without further ado, how I see the playoff teams, from worst to first:
You don’t stand a chance:
Indiana Pacers: Undeniably the worst team in the postseason, the Pacers received the unholy gift of playing Chicago round one. An admirable effort by this guy to make a case for the Pacers, but really, they don’t stand a chance unless Larry Bird rips off his suit and scores 40 a game.
One quick tangent before I move on: did ANYONE expect Tyler Hansbrough to be this good—well—ever? His overall numbers weren’t spectacular, but that 29-12 against Chicago? 27-10 against the Nuggets? Or his string of five straight 20+ point games? Totally unexpected. With Danny Granger, Roy Hibbert, Hansbrough, and Darren Collinson the Pacers have a pretty solid core, and with one or two smart acquisitions it could be the core of a perennial playoff squad.
New Orleans Hornets: If you keep up with this blog with any kind of regularity (all 12 of you), then you know I’m an unabashed, head over heels Chris Paul lover. I love how he plays the game, I love how he’s as great a passer as Rajon Rondo but commits less turnovers, I love how he’s barely six feet tall but can launch a smooth-as-silk jumper over Tyson Chandler like he was 6’1” rather than 7’1”, and I love how damn amazing he is with the basketball. So you can imagine my utter dismay with Paul’s recent injury trouble.
When a basketball player wears this:
It’s a bad sign. And when he dons it for a full season? Oh boy.
He’s shown flashes (like his 17-11-5 average in March and his 28-10-9 against the Rockets last week), but athletically he’s just not the same. Not quite to the same extent as Brandon Roy, but his first step has deteriorated and his speed is gone. That’s fine for a 33 year-old—say Paul Pierce—but not for a 25 year-old guard coming off one of the best seasons of the past twenty years before his injury. Chris Paul’s spaghetti knees are a crime against humanity.
And just to depress Hornets fans a little bit more, David West suffered an ugly, ugly season ending injury in the midst of a career year. Chris Paul may have been the straw that stirs the drink, but West was the drink itself. Because of Paul’s injury woes, New Orleans ran the offense through West…and he responded.
I should probably move on because that open window is looking awful tempting…
Playoff Purgatory:
Atlanta Hawks: Make a list of Atlanta’s five best players; here’s mine, from best to worst: Al Horford, Josh Smith, Joe Johnson, Jamal Crawford, Marvin Williams. It makes it all the more astonishing that Johnson, third on my list, not only has the biggest contract on the team at $123 million but makes almost twice as much as Josh Smith and Al Horford will over the next three years combined.
Some more fun facts about Johnson’s contract (thanks to ShamSports):
-He’s making more this year than LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Paul, Deron Williams, Carlos Boozer, and Chris Bosh.
-Johnson will make nearly $25 million in the last year of his contract, which is more than Kobe Bryant is currently making, the highest paid player in the NBA.
-Al Horford, undeniably Atlanta’s most talented player (oh, and he’s only 24), recently signed a very reasonable six year deal worth $65 million. That’s almost twice as less as the 29 year-old Joe Johnson will make in the same amount of time.
-When Johnson reaches the last year of his contract—when he will earn nearly $25 million—he’ll be 35 years old.
So yes, this is why we need a lockout.
And the worst part about Atlanta’s situation? They’re perpetually stuck in second gear; a lock to win 45-48 games a year, a lock to make the playoffs, and a lock to get swept by Orlando in the first round. The Hawks like to torture fans by operating under the illusion they can make noise in the NBA at least once per season. Last year, it was Atlanta sweeping the Celtics, continuous title favorites, during the regular season and this year it was a scalding 6-0 start and 9-4 January.
Allow me one last Hawks-related nugget: Along with the Pacers, they’re the only postseason squad with an overall negative +/- differential of -0.8.
New York Knicks: After a miserable 1-9 stretch in March, the Knicks seem to be kinda-sorta clicking and won seven in a row leading up to a two game tank job. Granted, the competition was crap, but it’s something, right?
I have one Knicks-related nugget (punny, right?) to expound upon: There’s no way they’re beating the Celtics like some are saying. The Celtics match up so well with New York it makes me giddy. Pierce can score at will on Carmelo, Garnett can handle Amare, and Rondo, assuming he starts trying again, should be able to ravage the corpse of Chauncey Billups.
For the six people that actually watched Boston’s victory over the Knicks a couple days ago in their regular season finale, both teams rested their best players—Melo, Amare, and Billups for the Knicks; Rondo, Pierce, Allen, and Garnett for the Celtics. Boston’s scrubs, and I mean that in the most affectionate way possible, absolutely handled New York’s scrubs. Unfortunately for the Knicks, those scrubs actually have to play in the playoffs, while in Boston, those guys will be gathering flies at the end of the bench. The Knicks problems in a nutshell…
Scrappy Bastards:
Philadelphia 76er’s: I love Coach Doug Collins; absolutely love the guy. He doles out more hugs on the sideline than anyone I can remember and he's given us some epic meltdowns. My favorite was a couple weeks ago during the 76er’s most recent loss to the Boston Celtics. In a fit of rage after an Evan Turner turnover Collins mercilessly tore up a folded up piece of paper, and had the look of a man desperately trying to drop a monster turd while watching Tony Parker do unspeakable things to his wife. I wish I had video evidence of this, but sadly, my endless Google/YouTube searches have been fruitless. DAMN.
I’ll make the case for Collins as coach of the year in four parts:
-He’s turned Thaddeus Young into a legit sixth man of the year candidate.
-He could have used 2011 as a rebuilding year. But no, as badass as Coach Collins is, he decided to milk every single scrap of talent and effort from his middling squad and turn them into an ultimate force of destruction that could not be stopped. Maybe a little overboard, but you get the idea.
-No one has done more with less. Hollins has done great things with Memphis, but they have Zach Randolph; a legit monster down low. Thibodeau has been phenomenal for Chicago, but his squad is super talented. George Karl has likewise been exceptional, but Denver is loaded with depth. The 76er’s best player is Andre Iguodala, a 27 year old 2-guard known more for his perimeter defense than his offensive skills. Oh, and starting at center for the Philadelphia 76er’s? SPENCER HAWES!!!
-Philly started the year 5-13. 5-13!
Memphis Grizzlies: I understand why San Antonio started tanking a week ago. No, no I know what you’re thinking. They were resting their stars right? Making sure they were healthy and ready to go for the playoffs…classic Popovich. You’re wrong actually, it’s because they were desperately trying to avoid the Memphis Grizzlies in round one.
It sounds crazy, but Memphis is, beyond all comprehension, good. Tony Allen and Shane Battier are two of the top five perimeter defenders in the league. Allen is even a legit defensive player of the year candidate. Zach Randolph is a crazy beast in the post. Marc Gasol, somehow, is a quality NBA center. O.J Mayo is a streaky shooter off the bench, and Mike Conley, defying all expectations, is almost playing up to the numbers of his lofty contract. What are the chances all that happened for the Grizz this season? What are the chances Mayo kept trying hard after nearly getting traded away at the deadline, Tony Allen stopped committing horrendous turnovers, and Zach Randolph began acting like a sane human being? 500-1, 600-1?
Now think about the Spurs. Tim Duncan, with 1,200+ games on his odometer, accepted a much reduced role in the offense this season and instead concentrated on playing his normal exceptional defense, passing out of the post, and trying hard not to get injured. The Spurs suddenly relied on guard play and three point shooting rather than feeding The Big Fundamental. Am I a complete lunatic to believe the Grizzlies, with two of the best perimeter defenders in the game, can give San Antonio a hard time?
And they all have playoff beards. Crazy, ridiculously awesome playoff beards.
Inglorious Bastards:
Denver Nuggets: Along with the Grizzlies, is there a more eclectic gathering of individuals than in Denver? Chris Anderson, Kenyon Martin, J.R. Smith, Al Harrington…that’s four of the ten craziest guys in the NBA, right? And then there’s Danilo Gallinari who’s probably slept with every celebrity short of Michelle Obama. The fact that George Karl has been able to control these guys—not just coach them into a formidable basketball force—is astonishing.
The more I consider Denver’s amazing post-Melo’ trade run, the more I think it’s a bit fluky. The team just isn’t built for conventional postseason success. Here’s the proven formula for playoff success: a top five half-court defense, a proven clutch scorer who is confident enough to take-and make crucial shots in the last five minutes of a close game (say what you want about Carmelo Anthony, but he was one of the best closers in basketball), a solid post scorer, and one-two solid defenders in the paint. Denver’s defense is mediocre at best, they’re end-of-game scoring is run by committee, and their only OK post defender is Kenyon Martin. Denver’s fast as hell, and can run teams off the court, but when has that led to a deep playoff run?
And of course, the feel good Nuggets have the misfortune of playing the Thunder in round one, just the kind of young, athletic team that can keep pace with the Nuggets.
Portland Trailblazers: Just like the Denver Nuggets aren’t built for postseason success, the Portland Trailblazers are built to make a deep run. 6th in points allowed, 13th in defensive efficiency, the Blazers are solid in the half-court and play a slow, plodding offensive game—averaging just under 91 possessions per game, well below the league average of 94.5. In the playoffs, as the game slows down, transition opportunities are limited and half-court play rules, the Portland Trailblazers would seem to be primed for a solid postseason.
Forget about the stats for a minute; Portland just seems like a frustrating team to play. Ever play on an intramural team full of tall lanky dudes who seem impossible to score against because of their absurdly long arms? Isn’t that the Portland Trailblazers in a nutshell? Portland’s front line of Gerald Wallace, Nicolas Batum, LaMarcus Aldridge, and Marcus Camby is truly frightening. That’s four, FOUR players capable of grabbing 10+ boards any given night. Aren’t the Lakers, with a healthy Bynum, the only other team that can boast the same rebounding prowess?
My only concern is the long scoring droughts Portland seems to go through once per half. They should have beaten the Lakers by thirty a couple weeks ago, but instead, they missed about fifty jumpers in a row, and Los Angeles made it interesting in the fourth quarter. You can thank Rudy Fernandez for that, who is 4-764 from deep since early March.
On the cusp:
Orlando Magic: The Magic truly are an enigma. Dwight Howard is the best defensive player in basketball, an unequaled defensive force who—all by himself—makes the Magic a really good defensive team. Think about that for a minute. A team of many, many guys I could probably take off the dribble look good in large part because of Howard’s defensive dominance. That, along with Howard’s improved offensive game, has got a lot of advanced metric advocates having Howardgasms. Here’s why I can’t give it to him: He’s missed TWO games—yes two—because of technical fouls. Sorry, but my MVP candidate can’t miss games because he throws tantrums like my six year-old niece when she can’t have cake for dinner.
Dallas Mavericks: Has there been a more devalued three seed in history? Put it this way, we think Portland got lucky drawing the Mavs in round one.
Here’s where Dallas is in trouble: everyone except Dirk, Tyson Chandler, and Rodrigue Beaubois is past their prime and playing like it. Jason Kidd, after having a career three-point shooting year last season, has been corpse-like the past month. And if Beaubois can’t go? DeShawn Stevenson is starting, Moses beard, neck tattoos and all. So with Stevenson instead of Beaubois at the two-guard, that gives Dallas the most unathletic starting five in history, right?
It’s weird that the Mavs—a 57 win team that started the year off at 23-7 and went on an 18-1 run in February and March—isn’t given much of a chance to beat a six seed. But they just don’t matchup well. Portland can throw ridiculous length at Dirk and bother their shooters. We all deserve a Mavericks-Lakers series—which Marc Stein pointed out hasn’t happened in the Dirk era—but it looks like Portland plays the role of spoiler.
Poor Dirk.
The Contenders:
Boston Celtics: A month and a half later I still can’t put a coherent series of paragraphs together about the Boston Celtic’s demise. What follows is a jumbled stream of consciousness; my depression given form:
A. The most fascinating part of the trade? Exactly the area you would most expect to suffer—defense—has been just as great as it was pre-trade and in seasons past. Offensively, though, Boston has been horrendous. Why is it that the loss of Perkins, a marginal offensive player at best, drastically affected the Celtics ability to score? First, remember that Boston’s best stretch of the season, in which they went 33-10 and were stellar on both sides of the ball, did not include Perkins. Rondo, Boston’s A+ point guard, was on a record setting pace during that 33-10 stretch. In Rondo’s first twenty games he handed out 10+ dimes in SEVENTEEN contests, and 24 in one. During this ugly stretch when Boston plummeted to the three seed, Rondo has been anything but spectacular. It’s no secret that he’s the maestro that makes Boston’s offense hum; his indifferent and lackadaisical play is a likely root of Boston’s scoring conundrum.
But I can’t help but wonder whether the Celtics miss Perkins screen-setting—of which he was one of the best in the league. Is that why Ray Allen, whose entire offense is predicated on coming off solid screens for open jumpers, has been a forgotten part of the offense? I can’t remember Allen EVER dribbling as often as he does now in the time he’s worn Celtic’s green. Nenad Kristc and Jeff Green don’t exactly set bone-crushing picks…
B. Why couldn’t the C’s have gotten Gerald Wallace; he was certainly there to be had…just ask Portland. Portland gave up two future first-round picks (which will be mid-round at best), Joel Pryzbilla (a 10th man at best), and Dante Cunningham (wait…who?). Package Glen Davis, Semih Erden, a future first-rounder, and three million; who says no? Charlotte gets a young forward for cheap, a mega-project center, and a future first-rounder. Most importantly, Charlotte saves a ton of money, their primary goal in the trade. Boston gets Wallace, an elite defender, an elite rebounder, and another enforcer. The C’s were searching for an adequate sixth man who could give solid minutes behind Paul Pierce, Wallace is that. Plus, unlike the young Jeff Green, doesn’t Wallace immediately connect with Boston’s old vets?
This is the type of stuff that keeps me up at night…
C. What terrifies me the most about these new-look Celtics isn’t the bad losses to bottom feeders, not the loss of the top seed…it’s the way they were CRUSHED by the Bulls and Heat in consecutive games by double-digits. Chicago played a more physical game, and simply out-classed the Celtics. No excuses, the Bulls were just better. I remember Kurt Thomas decking Ray Allen, defending him off a screen, and just standing over him, jaw locked, beady eyes focused on his hated rival. That’s the type of thing the Celtics were known for…not anymore.
San Antonio Spurs: It’s pretty astonishing how the Spurs completely altered the way they approach basketball, and succeeded. San Antonio used to be known for defense and Tim Duncan; now it’s three-point shooting, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. It speaks to Popovich’s coaching ability that he redefined his philosophy based on the players he had, and coaxed a solid season from Richard Jefferson after a miserable one last year.
That said, the Spurs can’t hang with the Lakers and Bulls. They just don’t have the size. Remember when the Orlando magic reached the Finals a couple years ago and lost to the Lakers? Dwight Howard and a bunch of shooters couldn’t handle Los Angeles and all their length. The Spurs are better than that, but isn’t the principle the same? Who can defend Bynum, Odom, and Gasol?
Oklahoma City Thunder: It’s not hard to pick Chicago and Los Angeles to reach the Finals, but I can’t help but wonder, “why not OKC”? Seriously, why not? The trade of Jeff Green and acquisition of Perkins did more than just give them an interior presence…the Thunder just feel right now, don’t they? James Harden is finally getting the playing time he deserves (17 ppg in March), Serge Ibaka slides to the four, starts, and can spend more time roving the paint and blocking shots (3.6 blocks per game in March, 3.1 in April), and Durant never has to play the four again. This team always felt like it was missing something…not anymore.
Miami Heat: Remember the panic six weeks ago when the Heat couldn’t win a close game? Have they done anything different since then except not get in some of those close games? Chris Bosh is the same old Chris Bosh, Mike Miller still looks frightened (and still hasn’t been able to buy a shot), and their bench is the worst in the postseason. I know Miami still has LeBron James, but give me one good reason they can beat the elite. And as the games slow down in the playoffs and transition opportunities become scarcer, can Miami score?
One interesting point John Hollinger brought up: Miami has rarely ran the LeBron James-Dwyane Wade pick-and-roll, by accounts one of the most feared plays in basketball. Of note though, is that Miami has gone to it more and more as the playoffs approach. Hollinger wondered whether Miami was saving it for the postseason—could their offense be totally different in the playoffs? Do the ultimate basketball villains have a secret weapon?
Los Angeles Lakers: As long as Los Angeles has the incredible length and skill of Andrew Bynum, Pau Gasol, and Lamar Odom they’re title favorites. So why are they second to the Chicago Bulls? On paper the Bulls are better. Derrick Rose is to Derek Fisher what Beyoncé is to Rebecca Black, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah should in theory, be able to matchup with Bynum and Gasol. But Los Angeles has won two titles in a row, and they know they can win a third. Chicago, as confident as they may be, don’t know if they can win the title. That’s a subtle, yet important point. L.A has the swagger of a team that’s won two titles in a row. What happens if Chicago goes down 2-1 in a series; I know Los Angeles is fine, but is Chicago?
The Favorite:
Chicago Bulls: Chicago’s got it all. They’re big, they’re long, they’re mean, and they defend. They’re nasty; they push you around, they frustrate you. From Boozer’s Just for Men beard, to Joakim’s Noah obnoxiousness, to Kurt Thomas’s physical defense. They get under your skin, and as games wear on, that makes a difference. It’s what the Boston Celtics used to be with Kendrick Perkins and Tony Allen.
We scrutinize them, we over-analyze them, and the only dent in Chicago’s armor we can find is inexperience. I don’t buy it. Noah and Rose were baptized in the fire of war two years ago, when they took the Boston Celtics to seven games in the most epic first-round series ever. Conventional wisdom holds that you need to experience defeat; you need to take a hit in the mouth, experience what it’s like to lose in the biggest stage imaginable, and you need the drive to NEVER want to experience that feeling again. Rose took a hammer to the face in that aforementioned series two years ago, got swept by the Cavaliers last year, and is back with his most inspired season yet. These guys have the freakin’ look.
Chicago Bulls OVER Oklahoma City Thunder in SEVEN
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