Confession: I’m a poor-ass college student. I save money in every way possible. When I go to Subway I forgo the combo to save $2 bucks. I eat peanut butter and jelly sandwiches so often Buddy the Elf is envious. I re-wear socks because I try to do as little laundry as possible. I occasionally dabble in the drug business…kidding. But here’s one thing I frankly cannot go without: NBA basketball. And two or three games a week is simply not enough, I need it EVERY freaking night. I suck the stuff up like Charlie Sheen and a line of cocaine. NBA League Pass is a logical solution, only I can never quite afford the full version on my laptop…so I settle for the crap one: you choose seven teams, only seven, and you can NEVER switch. Why is this relevant, and why should you care about my financial situation? Because I made the mistake of going with seven elite teams—how newbish of me. Why is this bad? Two reasons: Elite teams are always on national television, and I can’t follow the crazy race for the final four spots in the West playoffs.
(Quick tangent/rant: NBA League Pass SUCKS. First, random games are blacked out. For instance, two weeks ago I expected to tune into a Celtics game, only the dreaded “blackout” title came up. I was incensed; there’s an 85 percent chance my laptop will be destroyed by June. I paid good money to watch any basketball game I want, now let me watch any damn basketball game I want. And why won’t League Pass show games on NBA TV? I’m sure it’s got something to do with T.V contracts, but to my lesser brain NBA TV is run by the league and so is League Pass, so logically, since I paid money to watch any damn basketball game I want, I should be able to watch any damn basketball game I want. Here’s my second gripe: Once you pick your seven teams, you’re SCREWED—you can’t change. What if someone starts to peter off or another team gets hot? What if we have a change of heart ten days later? We should be able to switch two teams within three weeks of purchase. That’s reasonable, isn’t it?)
If you’re not following the tight race between Denver, Portland, New Orleans, Memphis, Phoenix, Utah, and Houston you absolutely should, unless of course, you’re more interested in the Heatles crying habits. But seriously, it’s one of the most under-rated and un-appreciated storylines in the NBA right now—kind of like the impending lockout.
Without further ado, a breakdown of the seven teams in contention for those final four seeds:
Denver Nuggets: 38-27, 5th in West
Who would have thought the Nuggets would rip off a 5-2 run after the Carmelo heist (And get this, Denver was 3-5 in February up until the Melo’ trade. Weird)? And during that (admittedly short) stretch Denver had quality wins over the Grizzlies Celtics, Hawks, and took the Trailblazers to overtime. They’re still scoring better than anyone in the league (104.6 ppg since the Carmelo trade, 107.3 for the season) and actually playing some semblance of defense (holding opponents to 94.2 ppg). It’s an atrociously short sample size, but impressive nonetheless. No one, NO ONE gave Denver much of a chance…
The Nuggets are a great team to watch for pure comedies sake. Chris Anderson looks like he survived an explosion at a Crayola Factory, Kenyon Martin has a giant pair of lips tattooed on his neck, Danillo Gallinari looks like he smokes a bong before every game (don’t discount that), and J.R Smith is always an adventure. Ty Lawson plays like a five year-old on a sugar high, and Raymond Felton, well, Raymond Felton looks unhappy.
Prognosis: Denver has the fortune of playing nine lottery teams the rest of the season, yet they still have to play the Spurs, Lakers, Heat, Magic, Mavericks, and two contests against the Thunder. Let’s say the Nuggets win eight of their nine lottery games and win four against the playoff-bound teams. Denver has to really screw up to miss the playoffs, but don’t be surprised if they drop a bit in the standings.
Portland Trailblazers: 37-27, tied 5th in West
No doubt you’ve heard this before, but LaMarcus Aldridge is playing OUT OF HIS FREAKING MIND. If Brandon Roy gives them anything Portland’s got a serious chance to upset someone in the first round (More on that later). And good news for Blazer fans: Brandon Roy is showing signs of life. He hit two clutch threes down the stretch to beat Denver, scored 14 points in 23 minutes against the Heat, and is playing less corpse-like every passing game. With LA showing he can be every bit a franchise player, Roy is reinventing himself as Portland’s closer, clutch shooter, emotional leader, and best marksman.
Nothing comes easy to the Blazers, but they’re great defensively (8th in points allowed at 95.3 per game) and have to be in the top two or three of “most floor burns per night”. Once Gerald Wallace gets comfortable (and Nate McMillan realizes having him come off the bench is ludicrous) and Camby returns to full health the Blazers have THREE starters capable of grabbing double-digit rebounds any given night.
Prognosis: Portland’s remaining schedule is brutal. The winning percentage of their opponents for the rest of the season is tops in the league at .570 percent. They also have nine games against the top four teams in each conference—four of which come at the tail-end of back-to-backs. BUT, despite all that, I think Portland is the best of the seven teams vying for playoff spots—enough to retain the 5th seed, or even overtake Denver. Plus, how can you EVER bet against the Portland Trailblazers? They seem to suffer a tornado of injuries ever year, yet just push through like nothing happened. They’re the Jack Bauer of NBA franchises.
New Orleans Hornets: 38-29, 7th in West
Chris Paul, the proverbial straw that stirs the cup, suffered a scary concussion last weekend but will thankfully return shortly. Without him, New Orleans looks like these guys on offense. Oh, and Chris Paul might be my favorite player in basketball.
Seriously, I could watch Chris Paul pass for the rest of eternity. In fact, I procrastinated writing the rest of this column watching this video.
Prognosis: They’ve only got five road games left, and ten of their next sixteen are against teams on this list. If the Hornets don’t make it they’ve got no one to blame but themselves.
Memphis Grizzlies: 36-30, 8th in West
I have an inordinate amount of love for this team. I don’t know if it’s because I went through a love/hate relationship with Tony Allen through his tenure in Boston and enjoy seeing him ascertain some success, or if it’s because Zach Randolph—after so many years of underachieving—is finally dominating on a regular basis, or even if it’s because Marc Gasol is the goofiest basketball player in America. Whatever it is, I can’t get enough of the Memphis Grizzlies—until, you know, Tony Allen shuts down Kevin Durant and I have to unearth my Danny Ainge voodoo doll.
Memphis, right now, is in the final play-off spot in the West, only two games behind fifth seeded Denver and one ahead of Phoenix. That’s deceptive though, as the Grizz are a very respectable 22-12 since January, with only three losses coming by double digits. They’ve even gone 5-3 since Rudy Gay—arguably the Grizzlie’s best player—went down to injury. Speaking of Rudy, he should be set to return by late March which bodes well for the Grizzlies final push for the postseason.
Prognosis: With their final ten games at home and only four against title contenders, the Grizz are not only primed to make a push for the playoffs, but to move up the standings. Assuming they can only get better once Gay returns, and O.J Mayo and Allen don’t come to further blows, I would bet on Memphis making a strong push for the sixth/fifth seed.
Phoenix Suns: 33-30, 9th in West
Nobody loves the floppy-haired Canadian more than I do, but the Suns are in a rough spot despite a recent stretch of solid play (11-6 since February). The loss to Denver last night hurt, and forward Channing Frye will likely have to sit for two-three weeks. That’s a big loss for Phoenix, especially because Frye will miss several VERY important head-to-head matchups with the Hornets, Rockets, Thunder, Lakers, and Mavs. Frye’s injury means the Suns will have to rely more on Hakeem Warrick and Grant Hill’s spaghetti knee ligaments. GULP. Also, anyone else fascinated by Nash’s March so far? Only 31 minutes a game and just under seven shot attempts. At a time when Phoenix needs him more than ever, you’d think he would bear a larger part of the offensive burden.
Prognosis: Phoenix is a lively group of underdogs, but they don’t have a prayer unless Steve Nash goes into virtuoso evisceration mode. They’ve got few quality wins all season, and while Memphis, Portland, Denver, and Houston are peaking at the right time, Phoenix is going the other direction. At least that’s a lottery pick in the worst draft ever!
Utah Jazz: 34-31, 10th in West
Since the Deron Williams trade Al Jefferson is averaging a 28-10 with 2.4 blocks. Can anyone explain that? Jefferson starts playing up to his potential AFTER the best point guard in basketball is traded? I’m more confused by this than Charlie Sheen’s twitter feed.
Unfortunately, Jefferson’s great play isn’t coinciding with wins. Since the beginning of February the Jazz are a miserable 5-11 with their five wins coming against the Raptors, Kings, Pacers, Kings again, and Rockets. Ewww
Prognosis: Things look bleak for the Jazz with a rough upcoming schedule featuring a double dose of the Lakers, and contests against the Bulls and Thunder. On the bright side, missing out on the postseason leaves the Jazz with two lottery picks in the worst draft in recent memory.
Houston Rockets: 33-33, 11th in West
As far as having an eclectic group of players and personalities, Houston might be tops in the league. It’s always interesting to see how Daryl Morey—at the forefront of the analytics in sports revolution—constructs his team. Luis Scola was an absolute FREAKING heist of a draft pick (seriously, the guy is outplaying Chris Bosh-LINK), and Kyle Lowry is having a killer March. They lack star power, but they’ve got a bunch of interesting pieces. One of the most entertaining teams to watch right now…
Prognosis: That recent 7-2 stretch got Houston back in the playoff race, but I doubt it will be enough to overtake the Blazers, Nuggets, Grizzlies, or Hornets—all who have at least three game leads. 11 of their 17 remaining games are at home, but they likely have to win 12+ of their next 17 to grab the eight-seed. Not likely…
Here’s how I think the West ultimately looks come playoff time:
1. San Antonio Spurs
2. Dallas Mavericks
3. Los Angeles Lakers
4. Oklahoma City Thunder
5. Denver Nuggets
6. Portland Trailblazers
7. Memphis Grizzlies
8. New Orleans Hornets
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