The same things can be said for week two, and the first three-four games of the season really. The past three seasons the Chargers have started off: 2-3 (then won 11 straight), 0-2, and 1-3. All three years they made the playoffs. In 2003, the Patriots lost their season opener 31-0 to the Bills, and then proceeded to pump out 15 straight wins on their way to another Super Bowl victory. Or how about in 2008 when the Colts started out 3-4 then proceeded to win nine straight games on their way to a playoff berth. If you’re not convinced yet, trust me, there is a lot more examples of bad starts leading to great finishes and playoff berths. This is especially true for established, perennial contenders. So just because a team that makes the playoffs year after year starts poorly don’t overreact and temper your pessimism.
For all the great examples I can give, it doesn’t make it any easier to mitigate those gut over-reactions. It’s our human nature, it’s in our DNA. If someone told you that you failed your chemistry test, your first thought would be of the worst possible scenario, right (shut up all you optimists)? “I failed the test! I should just drop the class! I’m done for, what in God’s name am I gonna do now?!?!?! Woe is me!!!” The same thing happens in professional football. If a team loses a ball game (especially if they lose badly) people are apt to declare the team finished. To combat these gut reactions one must learn to put a loss or poor performance in perspective and realize it is only one game. For instance, it’s not like Napoleon never lost a battle, nor Michael Jordan scored 40 points every game. It’s all a matter of perspective. If the Colts get blown out at home, don’t even begin to predict it will happen next game, because history shows the opposite. Follow the established trends!
But that is not to say ignore the first few weeks of the season and call them meaningless. Merely temper your worry, and believe that the team will turn things around. And that’s not to say you can’t make any conjectures after a football game, because hey, there would be plenty people without a job, right? Now let’s look at a couple ways to interpret the first few weeks:
1. Did the team lose in a way it doesn’t normally lose? Did a previously top ranked defense give up 32 points? Did a frighteningly efficient offense score only 13 points? That’s a sign that it was a fluky performance. Go by the law of averages. If a team scores 30 points per game over a season don’t be surprised if they have a poor performance or two. The 07’Patriots had the highest scoring offense of all time yet still had a game where they scored 20 points. Chris Johnson ran for only 36 yards this past Sunday, do you think that trend will continue throughout the season?…don’t bet on it. The point is, fluky things happen…and teams will lose because they don’t play the way they usually play. If that does occur, you can bet on them continuing based on past trends, rather than fluke occurrences.
2. Take into account other factors such as weather, home field advantage, a short practice week, a lot of travel (etc.). These types of things affect teams more than many people realize. The Jaguars have been outscored 99-16 when traveling to the west coast over the past three seasons. Coincidence? Possibly, because four games is a small sample size yet it is still a telling statistic. Young teams with inexperienced quarterbacks often struggle on the road, as well as warm weather teams often performing poorly in cold weather. You think opponents enjoy playing at Lambeau field in December? Sometimes teams struggle when playing in Mile-High stadium because; well it’s located pretty far above sea level. Just the same, teams can perform subpar when faced with a short week of practice. And you would be naïve to think high powered passing attacks don’t excel playing in domes or suffer in the rain/snow.
3. Similar to number 1, did something really out of the ordinary happen? A special teams/defensive score often swings games immeasurably; by not just putting points on the board but swinging momentum for good. I’m not saying it’s a good thing if these happen to a team, but realize they aren’t usually an every game occurrence. Now if your quarterback throws 4 pick six’s’ in a row it may be something to worry about.
But you’re allowed to start worrying if…
- Your coach has the “Wade Phillips face:
- You don’t know who your starting quarterback is, nor do you know who it should be.
- Reports surface that your team doesn’t “practice well”…
- Your team is starting to look like a frat house, and players are getting DUI’s at 6:30 in the morning…
- Your star wide receiver looks like he might commit a double homicide because of the quarterback he has to play with (see: Larry Fitzgerald).
- Your team has three good running backs yet doesn’t run the ball.
Some week 2 revelations…..
1. For every forty plays that Moss dogs it, he does this….
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xe5od2JTnUc
…holy heck batman…if he did that the other eight times Brady threw it to him…
2. The Houston Texans might have the best offense in the NFL. No, seriously. Matt Schaub threw for 497 yards on Sunday. Yeah, that’s what I said. He threw for nearly 4800 yards last year to transform into one of the league’s best. Oh yeah, and he’s throwing to the best wide receiver in football. I mean, did you see that catch he made on Sunday to tie the game? At this point in their career I think Larry Fitzgerald and Calvin Johnson are the only other guys in NFL that make that catch. Unbelievable. As long as the Texan’s offensive lines continues its strong play, and Arian Foster doesn’t fade away, they will score 30 points a game. And that defense. It’s young, fast, and capable of making huge plays. They won’t be a top ten squad but they will make plays when they need it, and won’t shrink from big moments. Watch out for this team, it’s been a long time coming but the Texans have arrived. (What was I saying about making hasty conjectures…crap)
3. If the 49ers can stop making horrendously stupid plays…then they can make the playoffs and maybe even surprise a team. Seriously, watch this team play. Block out the muffed snaps, fumbles, tipped ball interceptions, delay of game penalties, and the glazed look of Alex Smith and you will see a team that can run the ball, play tough, physical defense, and has some incredible offensive weapons in Vernon Davis, Josh Morgan, and Michael Crabtree. They're a legit quarterback away from the Super Bowl.
4. Brett Favre looks every Nano second of his 40 years of age…Was it really eight months ago that Favre was capping off his best statistical season as a pro? It looks like that party is coming crashing down…fast. Just watch some of the deep balls Favre threw Sunday, they were woefully short and lacked powerful delivery. The question is, can Favre rebound…
5. Not convinced by the Dolphins…They’re 2-0 after beating the worst football team in the league by far and then barely beating a Minnesota team that turned the ball over four times, committed seven penalties and converted five of fourteen third down attempts. Yikes. Those aren’t your Vikings of last year people, forget them. The Dolphins are a decent team. They have a strong running game, an ok quarterback, and a really good defense. However, they won’t make the playoffs. The AFC is too stacked, and with both the Jets and Patriots in division I don’t see a way. We'll see the real Dolphins come out when they face New England and New York.
6. Carson Palmer is far from is 2006 form…I can’t believe the guy has only thrown one pick on the season! I’ve watched both his games this year, and I’ve counted six dropped interceptions. Not even difficult to catch balls, just muffed picks. If it weren’t for Joe Flacco’s ugly meltdown and some awful officiating, the Bengal’s would have lost to Baltimore. The guy just has never looked the same since the knee injury he suffered in the 2006 playoffs. Is it time to downgrade him from elite status? Maybe they could throw in his brother and nobody would notice...
7. I’m not ready to get on the Vick bandwagon just yet…He shredded the Packer’s defense in garbage time, and a Lion’s defense that couldn’t stop the Buffalo Bills. I’ll reserve judgment on Vick until he plays a legit defense for a full game.
8. Buffalo is terrible…Sorry, I couldn’t resist. (And if they somehow beat the Patriots this Sunday I will light myself on fire.)
9. The Dallas Cowboys may be in danger…The Boys’ next six games: @ Texans, vs. Titans, @ Vikings, vs. Giants, vs. Jaguars, @ Packers. That’s four very tough games, and two against teams that are hard to predict. Already in a 0-2 hole, Dallas has left itself NO room for error. Let’s say they split those six games (a lofty goal at this point in time), which would put them at 3-5. At that point they really need to win out the rest of the season; maybe being able to lose another while still making the playoffs. That is a tall order, yet not impossible. The Colts and Chargers have done similar things in the past. Yet I’m not sure the Boys’ are up to it with Wade Phillips at the helm of an undisciplined team. With reports starting to surface that Dallas does not practice well nor take it seriously, they will need a renewed urgency if they hope to be the first to play in the Super Bowl on their turf.
10. Why Tampa Bay can beat Pittsburgh…I’m not jumping on the Buc’s bandwagon quite yet (I’m sure they won’t make the playoffs, and they might not even reach .500), but don’t count them out against the Steelers. Here is my worry for Pittsburgh; we haven’t seen them have to play from behind yet. And all it takes for that to happen is a bomb from Josh Freemen to budding star Mike Williams. This team has shown a knack for big plays thus far, and if they can get one Sunday and go up by a touchdown, can the Steelers respond? That’s my worry. I’m not so sure Chazz Batch is capable of leading this subpar offense on long touchdown drives, or even consistently moving the football against an underrated Buc’s defense. The Pittsburgh defense is fierce, and you have to like them against a second year Quarterback, but every defense gives up the big play once in a while. Right?
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