Week 11 Picks

Yes, that's Tyler Palko, in all his face grabbing glory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers -13

Tampa Bay’s offense continues to slip into oblivion. Surprisingly, their defense is even worse—30th in the league per DVOA. Pairing a painfully slow offense with a painfully inept defense probably isn’t the formula to beating the Packers.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions -4.5

Anyone can drop 30+ on Carolina’s defense. No, seriously, only four teams haven’t. Broken finger and all, Matthew Stafford can still launch a few bombs to Calvin Johnson…who cares if they don’t have a running game this week?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 @ Cleveland Browns

I think the Jaguars are better, but who the hell knows what will happen when two stinkers play each other? This has 9-6 written all over it. Speaking of 9-6, couldn’t LSU beat the Browns on a neutral field 9 out of 10 times?

Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings +3

The AFC West is this year’s version of the 2010 NFC West…meaning pick against them when they venture outside of the division, and when they’re playing each other, for the love of God, look away.

Buffalo Bills +8 @ Miami Dolphins

Buffalo is falling and the fish are rising, but can we PLEASE just remember two very important things? Tony Sparano is still coaching, and Matt Moore is still the Quarterback. Let’s all not jump off the Buffalo bandwagon so quickly, okay? Don't you still believe in FITZMAGIC?

Dallas Cowboys -9 @ Washington Redskins

I live in Virginia; hence the local broadcast always features the Redskins. Every sports bar always features the Redskins. Every Dick’s Sporting Goods sells nothing but Redskins apparel. Why do I live in Virginia again?

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens -5

I wanted to pick the Bengals, I really, really did. If you read this blog with any regularity (which, admittedly, has been sparse as of late) you know I hate the Ravens. But rookie wideout A.J Green is a likely scratch and cornerback Leon Hall is done for the season. Can the Bengals beat a 6-3 team—no matter how over-valued I think they are—without two of their best players? I don’t think so, and that's quite disheartening.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -7

There are some things in life that are simply impossible to comprehend, like John Skelton looking better than Arizona’s 60 million dollar man—Kevin Kolb—in his first two starts of the season. Can he continue the magic in his third straight start? Wait, you trust him on the road against arguably the best defense in football? Yeah, I thought so.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams -2

Will anyone watch this game? Why should I be forced to pick the outcome, and, if I’m wrong, suffer accordingly? Why is life so unfair?

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5

Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on 4th and 1 on his own 30 in overtime was an inexcusably poor move (and I'm somewhat of a connoisseaur of irrantionally ballsy moves), but let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Falcons are probably the league’s best boring team. And yes, that’s kind of a compliment. They’ve lost by only an average of 8.75 points, and in a loss to Green Bay; they held them to their second lowest point total of the year. I think they’ll take care of business and stay alive in the NFC South.

San Diego Chargers @ Chicago Bears -6

I love the Bears. I love that we’re finally appreciating Jay Cutler’s talent now that he’s got some time to actually throw the ball. It’s clear that Cutler is one of the five most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL, right? In other news, it’s clear that the Chargers aren’t anything close to contenders, and as physically intimidating as their pass catchers are, they can’t stay on the field.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants -5

Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin have both been ruled OUT for Sunday Night’s game. This is a slam dunk, right? That’s Philly’s star quarterback and most reliable wide receiver—both out. Oh, and Vince Young is getting the start. Gulp.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots -14

Who is Tyler Palko? Well, he’s going to be starting at Quarterback for the Chiefs against one of the five best teams in the league.

From the ever-reliable Wikipedia:

“Tyler Palko (born August 9, 1983 in Imperial, Pennsylvania) is an American football quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs of the National Football League. He was signed by the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted free agent in 2007. He played college football for the University of Pittsburgh.

Palko was the starting quarterback at Pittsburgh from 2004 to 2006. He was not selected in the 2007 NFL Draft, but was signed by the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted free agent. After spending the 2007 season on the Saints practice squad and occasionally the active roster, Palko did not play football in 2008. He joined the Arizona Cardinals on a future contract in December 2008 before being waived in September 2009. Palko then joined the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League before signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers in November 2009. He signed a future contract with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2010 but spent most of the 2010 season on the practice squad before being elevated to the active roster near the end of the season. He entered the 2011 season as the back-up to Matt Cassel. Due to a hand injury that Cassel suffered in week 10, Palko will start his first game in the NFL on November 21, 2011.”

Upset of the Week: Minnesota Vikings OVER Oakland Raiders

Lock of the Week: New York Giants OVER Philadelphia Eagles

Pounding of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Kansas City Chiefs

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 73-69-8

Week 10 Picks

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles -10

I don’t really need to go into detail here, do I? You’re comfortable with Philadelphia’s pass rush vs. Arizona’s offensive line? You’re okay with Arizona’s secondary (According to the Football Outsiders, the league’s 29th ranked pass defense) vs. Philly’s speedy wideouts? Speaking of Arizona’s secondary, I noticed that rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson was on Michael Lombardi’s midseason All-Pro team. Yes, he’s an incredible punt returner, but have you seen him in coverage?

Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers -2

Let’s get something straight: the Titans aren’t good. Chris Johnson doesn’t even deserve to be a starting halfback at this point, and without Kenny Britt, Tennessee’s passing attack has fallen off a cliff…and so has their defense. Whereas it was a top five defense during the first half of the season, it has now plummeted to 21st in the league.

Houston Texans -5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let’s get something else straight: The Bucs aren’t as bad as the Titans, but they aren’t great either. Quarterback Josh Freeman’s touchdown to interception ratio plummeted from 25-6 last season to 8-10 this season. Wide Receiver Mike Williams—a borderline Pro Bowl candidate last year—is averaging below ten yards a catch and has snagged only one touchdown pass. That sums up Tampa Bay’s current offensive struggles quite succinctly.

Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins -1

I will NEVER understand what possessed Matt Moore to throw for 244 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions last Sunday against the Chiefs. Here’s what I DO understand: John Beck is horrendous. So is Rex Grossman. We deal in absolutes here, and as far as we know, the Dolphins have the edge in the Quarterback battle. Alright, that’s all I’ve got. I suggest you avoid this game…

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts +10

Can you F’ing believe the Colts are eight losses away from drafting the greatest pro prospect since John Elway? This pick stems from the simple belief that karma won’t allow the Colts to ‘earn’ the number one pick, just like karma decided to make the Raiders semi-competent the year the Patriots owned their first round pick. Let’s go Curtis Painter!

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs -4

The Chiefs were just blown out by the previously hapless Dolphins…that means they’re storming back with a dominating win to restore confidence only to lose again the following week, right?

Buffalo Bills +9 @ Dallas Cowboys

Here’s the thing about Buffalo’s loss last week to the Jets: it wasn’t that the Bills looked so bad, more so that the Jet’s defense looked so good. Thankfully for the Bills, Dallas’ defense has seen a drastic drop-off the past couple of weeks. Especially against the run game, where the Cowboys were once ranked in the top five but now reside at 23rd overall. Have at it, Fred Jackson.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5

Are we sure the Saints are good? According to the Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, the Saints defense is only a smidge better than the Patriots—widely regarded as one of the worst units in the NFL. They’re especially weak against the run, and the Falcons have one of the better running backs in the league. Quietly, Atlanta’s defense has had a solid season…despite the lack of a consistent pass rush.

St. Louis Rams +7 @ Cleveland Browns

I picked the Rams last week because I liked what I saw from a dominating win over the Saints. Predictably, they fell flat on their face. BUT, keep in mind that if it wasn’t for a botched field goal, they would have won. They’re better than the Browns, they just are.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Something else we need to get straight: The Bengals are good, not great. You realize the teams they’ve beaten are a combined 16-32, right? This is a pretty obvious back-down-to-Earth game for the Bengals. Now that I’ve said that I’m looking forward to a 23-20 Cincinnati win. Just call me Nostradamus.

Baltimore Ravens -6 @ Seattle Seahawks

I suppose this is a possible let down game after narrowly escaping with a win over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. But what the hell, it’s the Seahawks, the league’s 26th ranked offense up against the league’s best defense. That matchup is too one-sided to argue with.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers -3

East to West coast, possible let-down game for the Giants, a bad matchup for their defense, and what will be an invisible running game all add up to a Giants loss. If that sounds ridiculously arbitrary, it is. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from picking games the past two years, it’s that the smarter you try to become the worse your picks turn out. Don’t ask me why, the NFL is crazy yo.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears -4.5

I think the Bears might be a good team. For all the hate we toss Jay Cutler’s way he’s right up there with Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Michael Vick as one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL. He really is good enough to carry Chicago’s offense now that the Bears have, you know, decided to protect him. As a famous philosopher once said, he’s pretty good when he’s on his two feet.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets -2.5

The Jets are flat-out better this season. Their secondary is good enough to shut down New England’s cadre of pass catchers, and Rex Ryan has always been able to get pressure on Brady with exotic blitz packages. Oh, and New England’s defense has a habit of making even the most mediocre quarterbacks look really, really good. Say hello to the first three game losing streak in a long, long, long time Patriots Nation…

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -9

The Patriots fan in me refuses to believe that the Packers will go 16-0 (that’s my record, dammit!), but tomorrow night ain’t gonna be their first loss. In other news, let’s stop with the ‘Packers might be the greatest team in history’ bullshit that will surely crescendo to a fever pitch if the Pack manage to reach 10-0. You’ll be hearing a lot more from me if that happens…

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts OVER Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock of the Week: New York Jets OVER New England Patriots

Pounding of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles OVER Arizona Cardinals

Last Week: 6-7-1

Overall: 65-61-8

The Morning After—Week 9

1. Calm down there, Mr. Rodgers, you’re making me wistful…



He’s been nothing short of incredible. Just from watching him do his thing, it appears that quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having a season unlike any other in history. Do the numbers back this up?

Brady’s numbers at the midpoint of his legendary 2007 season:
2,431 yards, 30 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, 74 percent of passes completed, 9.1 yards per attempt.

And here are Rodgers numbers through eight games:
2,619 yards, 24 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, 72.5 percent of passes completed, 9.9 yards per attempt.

Rodgers has thrown six less touchdowns, one more interception, and is just short of Brady’s completion percentage, but he has thrown for more yards, and is flirting with double digit yards per attempt…which hasn’t been done since the fifties. The Football Outsiders go into some great depth HERE on Rodger’s season, but suffice to say if he continues on this pace, he’ll finish with the greatest season of quarterbacking in history, and it’s not even as close as you’d think.

Now, enough with numbers…they’re boring. What about watching him? Has there ever been a quarterback able to throw as accurately and as powerfully as Rodgers can on the run? Take THIS throw against the Chargers for example, where he rolls out of the pocket, immediately feels the pressure, and launches a 64 yard bomb to Jordy Nelson for the game winning touchdown. That was on the run, three yards from the sideline, half a second away from being smashed into the turf by Chargers linebacker Travis LaBoy. I couldn't do that with a tennis ball.

2. The All-second half team…

It happens every season: a team gets hot in the second half after a poor start and makes it into the playoffs completely unexpectedly. Last year it was the Packers, and before them, the Chargers. Who will it be this year? A relatively pointless endeavor, as it’s almost impossible to predict, but what the hell, I’ll give it a shot. The candidates…

-San Diego Chargers: The Charger’s defense is putrid; let’s just get that out of the way. It sucks; it isn’t the unit that finished last year ranked seventh in the Football Outsider’s defensive efficiency rankings. As many others have said, it’s pretty clear this Chargers team just isn’t as good as last year’s squad that probably should have made the playoffs if it weren't for a horrid special teams unit.

-Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys were gifted a fairly pedestrian schedule over the remaining half of the season. They get to play the Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, and the frisky Bills. Plus, they’ve still got both games against the division-leading Giants, one of which is on the last week of the season, possibly to decide the NFC East. They’re a good team that can’t seem to put it all together with any kind of consistency. But I don’t care, I’m enthralled by their talent, and with much of the public discourse directed at other things besides Tony Romo’s deficiencies, the Cowboys could be primed for a run while not under the spotlight. With Romo and the Cowboys, that’s always a good thing.

-Philadelphia Eagles: They’re pretty damn good by most statistical measures, but as I wrote above, their margin of error is slim to none. They’d need to go at least 7-1 the rest of the way, with games against the Patriots, Cowboys, Jets, and Giants left on the schedule. That’s tough…probably too tough.

-Tampa Bay Buccaneers: For whatever reason, the Bucs can’t seem to get there passing game together. After a brilliant 2010 season, quarterback Josh Freeman has thrown only eight touchdowns to 10 interceptions, is averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt, and has the Tampa Bay offense scoring just north of 18 points per game—24th in the league. You can’t win without offense, and no team in last season’s playoff field averaged less than 20 points a game during the regular season.

So there you go, I like the Cowboys to be the second half’s “Surprise team”. Am I looking forward to Tony Romo trade rumors and Jerry Jones canning Jason Garrett after a 2-6 finish? You bet!

3. Why we should absolutely write the Eagles off, and why we should absolutely not write the Eagles off…



Let’s take a quick look at the NFC playoff picture for the sake of argument:

NFC North: At 8-0, with Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, the Packers are winning this division. You can safely jot that down with permanent marker. The Lions are 6-2, and a prime candidate for the first wildcard spot. The Bears, at 5-3, looked strong last night. To everyone’s chagrin, they’re also a contender.

NFC South: In all likelihood, the Saints and Falcons will battle it out for the division, and the loser could play a role in the wildcard race. Both could finish with at least 10 wins, especially considering Atlanta’s relatively easy schedule going forward.

NFC West: The 49ers are 7-1, will win the division easily, and will battle it out all season with the Packers for the NFC’s number one seed.

NFC East: The Giants are 6-2, have a two game lead on the division, and are coming off three straight solid victories. The Cowboys—at 4-4 and super talented—could make a run.

That’s eight teams all with varying degrees of playoff chances, and then we have the Eagles. Oh, the Eagles. Based on the field I just listed, Philadelphia needs to go 7-1 the rest of the way. Anything less and they’ve got no chance. At 3-5 there room for error is nonexistent.

So why shouldn’t we write them off? The Giants have been known to blow big division leads. Last season, the Giants also started 6-2, but went 4-4 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs by a smidge. The season before that the Giants started off 5-0, then finished 3-8, missing the postseason. That’s two straight seasons of fast starts and poor finishes…give me one good reason that’s not in play for a third straight season?

4. Examining the Patriots loss and what it means for the rest of the season…

I wrote about the Patriots HERE a few days before they lost to the New York Giants. For those who haven’t read it, here’s the Cliffnotes version: The Patriots have a lot of problems that probably can’t be corrected this season. As fulfilling as it is to see my writing validated, it was miserable watching all my criticisms unfold on the football field. The offensive line couldn’t protect Brady (especially up the middle, where starting center Dan Koppen was lost for the season in week one), big plays down the field were at a premium, and the defense couldn’t make stops when it mattered. That’s about it. Unless Chad Ochocinco is imbued with the spirit of Randy Moss circa 2007 and the Ravens inexplicably ship Ed Reed to the Patriots for Kyle Arrington, New England’s prospects look bleak. That suction sound? That was the toilet as I attempted to flush my head down the toilet…

5. You’re also not gonna’ believe this, but the Jets are peaking after a rough start…



Do you remember when the Jets were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens by 17 points and Mark Sanchez completed only 11 passes out of 35 attempts? Do you remember how the Jet’s offense managed only seven first downs and 150 total yards of offense? You remember that offensive implosion, the nine point loss to the rival Patriots next week, and a 2-3 record heading into week six? That feels like a very long time ago…thus, is the National Football League.

We’ve been conditioned to believe in offense over defense, that it’s a passing league, and that quarterbacks are the face of the NFL. By and large, it’s all true. But for the third year in a row, the Jets are breaking the rules. According to the Football Outsiders, New York ranks first in overall DVOA, above the 8-0 Packers. I’ll leave it to the FO guys to explain exactly why that is, but suffice to say their offense isn’t as bad as you would think—discounting that pathetic performance against the Baltimore Ravens, of course.

And then there’s Mark Sanchez—the much-maligned GQ model-by-offseason. No one is talking about it, but just like Sanchez improved from his rookie campaign to his sophomore season, he has made another incremental jump. For a full season his stats prorate to 3,550 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Nothing spectacular, but a better Sanchez means a better Jets team. Considering they’ve made the AFC championship the past two seasons, could this be their year? *Barf*

Week 9 Picks

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Has a team ever been outscored 89-10 its first two games, then gone on a 4-1 run? Suddenly, the Chiefs are right in thick of the playoff hunt. The Dolphins are not, and despite a competitive two game streak, no team likes to play the Chiefs on the road. You heard the crowd in Monday night’s contest against the Chargers, right?

Atlanta Falcons -7 @ Indianapolis Colts

Quietly, despite the lack of a pass rush, and inconsistent play from rookie wide receiver Julio Jones, the Falcons find themselves ranked 13th and 6th in offense and defense, respectively. The Colts are sitting pretty at 24th and 32nd. Moving on…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints -6

The Saints just lost to the 0-6 Rams. Do you honestly think they’re losing this game?

New York Jets -1 @ Buffalo Bills

I trust the Jets defense more than I trust the Bills offense. Buffalo’s defense would be amongst the worst in the league if it wasn’t for their mighty turnover differential (they’ve forced 19 turnovers, second most behind the Jets). History and the laws of statistics say that Buffalo’s turnover differential returns to the mean.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys -10

Can someone explain how Tony Romo didn’t even target wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin last Sunday against the Eagles until the second half? He realizes it’s arguably the best pass catching tandem in the league, right?

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans -11

After reading THIS about the Brown’s offense, I’ll struggle to favor them again the rest of the season. I mean, seriously?

San Francisco 49ers -5 @ Washington Redskins

Wasn’t that 3-1 start fun? The Redskins have been outscored 76-33 since the fast start, including being shut out by the Buffalo Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans -1

Another gut feeling. Tennessee isn’t as bad as they’ve shown the past couple of weeks.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders -4

As long as Tim Tebow keeps doing Tim Tebow like things (meaning throwing wildly inaccurate passes, taking comical amounts of sacks, and ripping off a handful of spectacular runs per game) I’ll keep picking against the Broncos.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots -6

The blueprint for beating the Patriots: play lots of man coverage, pressure Brady without blitzing, and control the time of possession battle handily. New York can rush the passer with their vaunted front four, but their pass defense is a middling 15th in the NFL.

St. Louis Rams +7 @ Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb is listed as doubtful for Sunday, which means John Skelton will get his first start of the season. In five games last season, Skelton completed 47.6 percent of his passes for 662 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He averaged less than four yards per pass attempt in two games. I rest my case.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ San Diego Chargers

Michael Lombardi had this money quote in his Wednesday column, “A few years ago the Chargers gained a reputation for being an extremely talented team that underachieved. But now it seems everyone still thinks they are that elite team, while in reality they are a team in transition, in need of more talent.” I think that sums it up quite succinctly.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Historically, this is a close game. But I don’t trust Baltimore’s offense at all. AT ALL. I didn’t before the season, and I surely don’t now.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles -8

Philadelphia has gotten to opposing quarterbacks 22 times—sixth in the league. I fear for Jay Cutler’s life anytime he has to face an elite pass rushing defense.

Upset of the Week: New York Jets OVER Buffalo Bills

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Baltimore Ravens

Pounding of the Week: Houston Texans OVER Cleveland Browns

Last Week: 6-7

Overall: 59-54-7

Can the Patriots Win the Super Bowl?

After fears of a shortened NFL season subsided this summer and visions of Patriot’s football began dancing in my head, I became very excited. Irrationally excited, in fact, because my Patriots looked better than last year, where they went 14-2 only to be shocked by the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs. As your typical whiny, entitled New England fan, I was DESPERATE for another title, even though the Pats are only seven years removed from their last. Now, at the halfway point of the season, familiar doubts are manifesting themselves, and frankly, the same old issues are appearing right before our eyes.

So what are they?

No ability to beat press coverage…

We’ve heard this on a consistent basis ever since Randy Moss hung up the cleats. With no one to stretch the field and put the fear of god in opponents, defenses can focus solely on press coverage and not worry about receivers getting far up the field. Suddenly, the Patriots are struggling to rack up big plays against elite defenses. Wes Welker can get up the field against the Dolphins and Bills—28th and 17th ranked defenses respectively—but not against the Steelers or Cowboys.

Last Sunday, Pittsburgh stifled New England’s potent attack by playing more man coverage than they ever have before. Dick LeBeau—Pittsburgh’s long-time defensive coordinator—is famed for his zone blitz scheme, considering he practically invented it. Lots of man-to-man coverage isn’t something you often see from a LeBeau-led defense. Yet he knew it was the best way to contain the Patriot’s passing attack after giving up over 30 points to it last year, and it worked. Beautifully. Brady averaged less than six yards per pass and the Patriots had only one “big play” of over twenty yards.

If one of the most renowned defensive minds in history changes his entire scheme because he knows how to beat you, that’s probably not a good thing.

Perfect offensive execution all game, every game…

Matthew Stafford tosses a 50 yard bomb to Calvin Johnson at least once per game, usually when he’s bracketed by two defenders. It always works. Aaron Rodgers occasionally rolls out of the pocket and rockets a pass to one of his 67 viable receiving options down the field for a huge gain. Cam Newton likes to toss long balls to Steve Smith just to see how Smith manages to haul it in and what kind of fight inevitably breaks out between Smith and the poor defensive back in coverage (see: Roman Harper).

Tom Brady hasn’t had the luxury of a game breaking receiver since the Moss era. Brady has Wes Welker, a fast-improving duo of tight ends, and the ever reliable Deion Branch. Welker is fantastic, but he is a slot receiver. 5’9 slot receivers can only do so much. Deion Branch is about as explosive as a Giraffe. As good as tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are—which is very—they aren’t beating any cornerbacks on a fly route down the field.

The offense, as far as I can tell, relies on precise route running, an encyclopedic knowledge of the playbook, and a telepathic relationship with the quarterback. Against a zone defense, with good protection, Brady shreds it. They don’t stand a chance. His savvy receivers find the soft spots in the zone, Brady fires precision passes with impeccable timing, and we can all look forward to more Ugg commercials and enlightening Belichick press conferences.

But here’s the problem, when that execution breaks down, when mistakes are made, New England’s offense grinds to a halt. Brady fires short passes through impossibly small windows and the whole operation looks decidedly ugly. It’s like the opposite of the Eagles or Lions—squads that live or die by the big play. Besides Brady—the maestro that controls the operation—there isn’t a single, jaw-dropping talent on the offensive side of the ball. Sometimes, in a league as even and competitive as the NFL, execution isn’t enough. Sometimes, it all comes down to what the body can accomplish, not the mind. The Patriots lack the sort of game-breaking skill position player the Eagles, Lions, and Chargers seem to have in abundance. Not every defense has the personnel to follow Pittsburgh’s blueprint, but when they do, the Patriots don’t stand a chance.

Perennially Spinning the "Wheel of Mediocre Cornerbacks"
Besides Devin McCourty and Pat Chung, can you name anyone else in the Patriot’s secondary? Have you ever heard of Kyle Arrington, Antwaun Molden, Phillip Adams, and James Ihedigbo? If you haven’t, don’t feel bad. I’m also trying hard to acquaint myself with New England’s secondary, only it has been difficult because it changes week to week.

Considering the Patriots have spent 11 picks in the first three rounds of the draft over the past five seasons on defensive players, and only three are currently starting, it’s no wonder the defense blows chunks. Occasionally, teams hit it big with undrafted players and low-round draft picks, but generally (and I do stress generally), players are picked high in the draft for a reason: they are very talented. New England has managed to whiff on the majority of high round defensive picks, and all those players picked off the scrap heap aren’t working out. Somehow, I’m not surprised.

Not enough pressure on the opposing quarterback…

It’s the fourth year of the defensive rebuilding project, and it’s the fourth year without a pass rush. Year after year pundits predict the Pats will select a pass rushing linebacker or defensive linemen in the first couple rounds of the draft, and draft after draft they disappoint. Why do the Patriots neglect this gaping hole in the roster every year? The answer is they don’t…they just turn to free agency rather than the draft. Belichick seems to prefer aging defensive lineman and other castoffs and misfits to high-grade pass rushing talent. I have no explanation. Seriously, I don’t. But mediocre secondary play and a non-existent pass rush is a dreadful combination. Season-killing in fact.

The cold hard truth…

You’d think Devin McCourty, coming off of a Pro Bowl rookie season, would be able to shake his super sophomore slump. You’d think the return of All-Pro middle linebacker Jerod Mayo would provide a huge boost to the defense. Hell, you’d almost think Albert Haynesworth would be able to regain some of his old mojo. In short, you’d think New England’s defense will be a stronger unit over the last nine games of the season than the first seven. That’s the good, but the bad? Read on…

The Jets, in last year’s divisional showdown, unveiled the blueprint for containing the Patriot’s offense. Play man coverage, be physical with the receivers, get pressure on Brady without blitzing, and keep them off the field with your offense so Brady and Belichick don’t have enough time to figure it out. Easier said than done, I know, but there are a handful of teams with the personnel to do so. Those teams happen to be a strong Super Bowl contender and a division rival. New England’s offense couldn’t do anything against the Jets in last year's playoffs, and then faced with a similar game plan against the Steelers, once again looked lost.

They say you should never make the same mistake twice. Well, the Patriots did, and they have yet to convince anyone they wouldn’t make it a third time…or a fourth…or a fifth…

Week 8 Quick Picks

What follows is a slightly abbreviated and jumbled compilation of my week eight picks. Happy Halloween everybody!



Arizona Cardinals @ Baltimore Ravens -10

A 34-10 barnburner. I don’t like Kevin Kolb against the best defense in the league; I don’t like it at all. Also, cue pundits declaring the Ravens “back in business” after laying a 30-burger on one of the more inept defenses in the NFL.

Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers -3

To the guy who spent like four dollars on Cam Newton in my fantasy auction league: you lucky bastard! Watching Cam play last Sunday, I was struck not just by the strength of his arm or his escapability (both are certainly estimable), but by his accuracy. As a rookie, he’s completing 60 percent of his passes. That’s better than Peyton Manning in his first season. Remember when we felt bad for the Panthers having the first pick in this draft? FUN TIMES.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans -6

This feels like the type of game where the sucky team that has been able to hang with the best in the league is finally blown out. I don’t know why, just a gut feeling.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Giants -7

More than any other team I’m rooting for the Dolphins to land the number one pick. They’ve sucked for far too long. They need a ‘new Marino’. Just get Tony Sparano out of their so he doesn’t decide to give Reggie Bush the ball 25 times a game with Andrew Luck under center.

New Orleans Saints -14 @ St. Louis Rams

I’m not gonna’ lie, I was pulling for the Saints to score 70 last week. Am I a cruel human being? Probably, but it hasn’t been done since 1966. What!? I’m a fan of history!

Indianapolis Colts @ Tennessee Titans -2.5

Do you know how tempted I am to pick the Colts? I really believe the Colts aren’t as bad as they showed last week, and the Titans haven’t been good since they upset Baltimore. So what’s stopping me? After last week’s 62-7 loss to the Saints, Jim Caldwell stumbled around the field like he just witnessed the execution of his family. I’m afraid the Colts are toast…if we didn’t know that already.

Detroit Lions -3 @ Denver Broncos

Tebow threw some flummoxing passes in his first start of the season. I’m sure you’ve seen the lowlights by now, but at one point he lofted a ball 15 yards over his WIDE OPEN target. There are multiple third string quarterbacks in the league that could make that throw with ease. And even Tebow’s comeback was ugly to watch. That winning touchdown throw was as poor as I’ve seen. I still don’t understand how it worked.

Washington Redskins @ Buffalo Bills -4

John Beck has no FITZMAGIC. The Bills have it in abundance. Also, can we give some love to Fred Jackson? He’s been Buffalo’s MVP of the season, NOT Fitzpatrick. I wish there was a rule where undeserving and underperforming players had to forfeit their huge contracts for more deserving players. That way, Jackson would get Johnson’s 60 million and CJ would get paid as much as a back’ averaging 2.9 yards per carry should get paid.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Seattle Seahawks +6

This is simple: The Seahawks have been surprisingly good at home since the beginning of last season, and the Bengal’s are merely frisky. Remember that very important distinction. They’re not good, they’re frisky.

Cleveland Browns @ San Francisco 49ers -4.5

If you enjoy terrible offenses facing off against superb defenses, then by all means, enjoy this game. No, really, please do.

New England Patriots -2.5 @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Tom Brady kills the Steelers, he just does. Last year, when New England visited Heinz Field in one of the marquee games of the season, Brady shredded the best defense in the league to the tune of 350 yards and 3 touchdowns. The Patriots rushed for 103 yards against a defense that allowed an average of 62.8 rushing yards per game. For whatever reason, the Patriots have Pittsburgh’s defense figured out.

Dallas Cowboys +7 @ Philadelphia Eagles

This is a total coin flip. The Eagles do a lot well, the Cowboys do a lot well, yet both teams are great at finding unique ways to lose. I’m riding the “bye weeks may be detrimental” theory even though Andy Reid is 12-0 after bye weeks. Also, the Cowboys have the league’s third best defense.

San Diego Chargers -9 @ Kansas City Chiefs

I had the Chiefs winning this one for the past hour…but I’m not ready to give up on the Chargers. I believe in Philip Rivers, he’s gonna’ snap out of it. I believe in that offense, I really do. I continue to believe that San Diego is going to make a run the second half of the season into the postseason.

Lock of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Pittsburgh Steelers

Pounding of the Week: New Orleans Saints OVER St. Louis Rams

Upset of the Week: Seattle Seahawks OVER Cincinnati Bengals

Last Week: 6-6-1

Overall: 53-47-3

Week 7 Picks

San Diego Chargers +4 @ New York Jets



As strange as it sounds, the 4-1 Chargers need this one. They’ve made a living squeaking out close wins against mediocre teams for the first five weeks, and Philip Rivers—a favorite for MVP before the season—is on pace for one of his worst seasons as a pro. I find this perplexing, and you’ve gotta’ thing he’ll turn it around—especially because Antonio Gates is making his return this week. New York’s offense scares me to the point that I’m leaning towards picking against them whenever they play a team with a reasonably competent defense and a good offense. The Chargers fit that bill very well…

Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5.5

This one’s being played in London…what does that mean? I have absolutely no idea, but I hate everything about the Bears. Anytime your quarterback is screaming at someone on the sideline to tell your offensive coordinator “f*** him”!, chemistry might be an issue.

Washington Redskins @ Carolina Panthers -1



Yup, it’s officially the John Beck show for week seven. You can’t convince me to trust John Beck, you simply can’t.

Atlanta Falcons +7 @ Detroit Lions

Look, Detroit isn’t as good as their record indicates. They can’t run the ball, and with Jahvid Best likely out for a long time, it’s about to get worse. As I’ve written before, Detroit’s offense relies on the big play, and when they don’t get it, they lose. Atlanta’s been only average at stopping the big play, but this is simply a gut feeling. As Dan Gilbert would say, trust my gut.

Seattle Seahawks +2 @ Cleveland Browns

Seattle’s defense is secretly decent and Cleveland’s offense is not so secretly very bad. In terms of DVOA, Seattle’s defense is ranked 13th in the league—third against the run. Considering Colt McCoy is averaging less than six yards per pass, the Browns are one of the worst big play offenses in the league (only 8 passes of 20+ yards, and one over 40), Peyton Hillis is adding a new dimension to the ‘Madden Curse’, and Charlie Whitehurst is likely starting at quarterback for the Seahawks, and this game is likely the flagship for what is a terrible slate of week seven games.

Denver Broncos +1 @ Miami Dolphins

I wish Brandon Marshall would start doing crazy Brandon Marshall things again, because this game is about as bad as it gets. Remember when Marshall had three straight 100 catch seasons? Vaguely, now he just drops very makeable touchdown grabs. I can’t wait until the Patriots trade a sixth round pick for him in 2012…

Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans -2

Matt Schaub was really beat up against the Ravens last Sunday (4 sacks, 5 hits) to the point where he needed an MRI on his foot and missed some practice time. I can’t pick the Andre Johnson-less Texans over a fully-rested Titans team coming off the bye. Poor Houston fans…

Kansas City Chiefs +5 @ Oakland Raiders



My reasoning: either a 30 year-old journeyman will be starting at quarterback for the Raiders, or a guy who has been retired for nine months and has had five days to learn the playbook. They’re obviously going to ride McFadden, but the Chiefs have been reasonably competent at stopping the run (allowing only 3.8 yards per carry).

On the Carson Palmer trade: Palmer hasn’t given us any indication over the past two seasons that he’s a franchise quarterback again. You only trade a first round pick and a second if you know exactly what you’re getting, and you know the player will unequivocally improve your team. He’ll certainly be better than the next best alternative (Kyle Boller), but I’m not so sure Palmer is better than a healthy Jason Campbell.

The Raiders obviously think they’re a playoff-caliber team; otherwise they wouldn’t have panicked and given up the kitchen sink for Palmer. That’s exactly what this was: a panic move. Oakland mortgaged its future for a quarterback who has been mediocre since 2006, all because Campbell went down to injury, and they needed SOMETHING living and breathing at quarterback to take them to the postseason. Are we even sure they’re a playoff team? This move becomes an absolute failure if the Raiders fail to qualify for the postseason, and then don’t have a pick in the first FOUR rounds of the 2012 draft.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 @ Arizona Cardinals

A mildly suspicious game. I don’t totally trust the Steelers yet, and there’s a chance the Cardinals could be frisky at home. But then I looked at Arizona’s secondary and I shed a tear, both for Cardinals fans, and my own failed sleeper prediction. Only you Kevin Kolb, only you.

Green Bay Packers -9 @ Minnesota Vikings

It’s very likely the Vikings will be without their two starting cornerbacks Sunday, Chris Cook because of trouble with the law, and Antoine Winfield because of injury. Minnesota literally can’t stymie arguably the best passing offense in the NFL without their two starting corners, and truthfully, probably couldn’t do it with them.

St. Louis Rams @ Dallas Cowboys -10

Of all the teams that could have used Brandon Lloyd, the freaking RAMS get him? The Rams that have ZERO chance of making the playoffs? You know some team (possibly the Titans, my sources tell me) is going to sign Terrell Owens and he’s obviously going to be terrible because he’s 38 and held a strange ‘intervention’ style interview with the one and only Stephen A. Smith to drum up interest in his return to the NFL. Why the Jets didn’t dump the corpse of Plaxico Burress (seriously, watch him run routes. I use run for a lack of a better word, it’s more like shamble) and trade a fourth-rounder for Brandon Lloyd I’ll never know. You’ve seen this catch, right?

UPDATE: Sam Bradford is OUT. Gulp.

Indianapolis Colts @ New Orleans Saints -14

Jesus, the games are so bad this week I have to ramble on about something other than the games lest I cause you to bludgeon yourself to death with a Curtis Painter action figure.

Baltimore Ravens -10 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

If you decide to torture yourself like I will by watching this game, I suggest you cover your eyes anytime Blaine Gabbert and the Jaguar’s offense take the field. Remember when the Jets’ offense imploded a couple of weeks ago against the Raven’s on Monday Night Football? Baltimore’s defense is that good, only Gabbert is quarterbacking the league’s worst offense. This has the feel of a classic 34-3, two-interception Ed Reed game.

Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Detroit Lions

Lock of the Week: Baltimore Ravens OVER Jacksonville Jaguars

Pounding of the Week: Green Bay Packers OVER Minnesota Vikings

Last Week: 9-4

Overall: 47-41-2