The Morning After--Week 2

As always, we say goodbye to week two slightly more confused than when it began. In a way, the NFL is like a season of Lost—more questions than answers, a confusing plotline, and a few ‘where-the-hell-did-that-come-from?’ story arcs. In the spirit of the unfathomable NFL season and my favorite television show ever, let’s bang out some questions and answers…

1. Are the Patriots doing something unprecedented on offense?



I’ve never seen an offense operate like these 2011 Patriots. Starting tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are on pace to combine for 2,696 receiving yards, 40 touchdowns, and a few dozen footballs spiked to the rafters. Have you ever seen an offense combine a pair of such prolific receiving tight ends? Even better, they complement each other perfectly. Hernandez is fast becoming Brady’s favorite target with 14 receptions (second only to Branch’s 15) while Rob Gronkowski is the big, soft-handed red zone threat New England has been missing since Moss lost it.

Besides the blinding pace with which Brady operates the offense, Gronkowski and Hernandez present frightening matchup problems. Wideouts Deion Branch and Wes Welker demand attention outside, leaving nickel corners, safeties, and linebacker’s to deal with the tight ends. It’s a frightening prospect, and something I have never seen before. Double tight end sets normally indicate a power formation but with New England, it’s practically a spread attack. Do you see the matchup advantages this gives New England and the ridiculous flexibility it allows Tom Brady? The Patriots can line up in a ‘12’ personnel package (one back and two tight ends) and will be in an effective package to either run or spread the defense out and pass.

2. An update on my beloved Cardinals…

As you should know by now, I’ve got way too much riding on the Cardinals this season. I’ve got no personal attachment to the team, but I went with them as my 2011 sleeper pick. In part because of the Kevin Kolb upgrade, but also because they play in the ‘remedial English’ division of football. So how did they look week two? Arizona’s defense is worse than I ever imagined, and top five draft pick Patrick Peterson is doing everything well except covering receivers. And for whatever reason, Defensive Coordinator Ray Horton has decided to send blitzes from the secondary with wild abandon…probably not the best idea if your defense couldn’t cover Vince Wilfork running a fly pattern.

Offensively, Arizona began the game with some strange play-calling, including three straight passes on their first drive. But once they decided to run the ball, Beanie Wells got going and accumulated 93 rushing yards on only 14 carries—good for a 6.6 average. With St. Louis and Seattle sitting at 0-2, and the 49ers at 1-1 with a date against the surprisingly decent Bengals upcoming, things are looking up for KEVIN KOLBBBBB!!!!! and the Arizona Cardinals.

3. Do the Chargers have the best receiving corps in the league?



New England—for the most part—covered the Chargers receivers well. They eliminated all-pro tight end Antonio Gates from the game, didn’t blow any coverages, and Ras I Dowling and Devin McCourty were stuck like glue to Vincent Jackson and Malcom Floyd. Unfortunately (or fortunately, depending on who you are), San Diego’s wideouts make catching footballs look pitifully easy. Philip Rivers seems to have a great repertoire with his pass catchers, and he throws it to places where the 6’3 Jackson and 6’5 Floyd can go get it. Because of their height, they’re usually the only ones in position to make the catch. If/when San Diego stops turning the ball over, they could have the league’s best offense; not New England or Green Bay. They’ve certainly got the talent…

4. Are the Indianapolis Colts really going to win the Andrew Luck sweepstakes?

Remember that old grade school adage, “Leave some water for the fish”? I’m using it here for the Colts; they’ve already got a quarterback, leave Andrew Luck for the teams that are desperate. Let me ask you a question (Colts fans please leave the room). Would you rather have Andrew Luck sit on the Indianapolis bench for three to five years or watch him transform the 49ers into a contender? Having an immense talent sitting behind your hall of famer is no doubt an excellent move (see: Green Bay Packers), but that’s one more perennial dreg that will remain a perennial dreg without a franchise signal-caller. As far as the league is concerned, that's probably not a good thing.

5. What happened in Nashville?

As great as Baltimore looked coming off of a dominant win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, the Titans looked just as bad off of a week one loss to the Luke McCown led Jaguars (whom, I might add, threw four interceptions against the Jets). What happened? Matt Hasselbeck tore apart last year’s sixth best pass defense (per DVOA), Baltimore managed only two QB hits on Hasselbeck and no sacks, Kenny Britt continued his ascent towards stardom, and Joe Flacco was miserable all day. Flacco went 15 of 32 for 197 passing yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions. Of his 15 completions, only three went for 20 or more yards, one of which was a check down to running back Ray Rice who worked his magic and took it 31 yards to the house. Furthermore, only nine balls were caught by wide receivers/tight ends—the rest were to running backs. While Baltimore couldn’t manufacture any pressure at all, the Titans managed to sack Flacco three times and added five quarterback hits. After a dominant performance vs. the Steelers, Baltimore’s offense returned to its inconsistent ways.

Meanwhile, Tennessee’s offense was stellar despite Chris Johnson’s second straight bad game. Johnson was given the ball 24 times yet only gained 53 yards and his longest run from scrimmage was a mighty…seven yards. Do you remember the days when he was the most explosive player in the league? When you weren't willing to pry your eyes off the television screen because CJ2K was a threat to break a long one every play?

6. Cam Newton…is balling?



Not only has he thrown for 400+ yards in two straight games, but he’s managed to resuscitate the corpse of Steve Smith, who is leading the league in receiving yards. Here’s what has surprised me the most about Newton: his likeability. I follow college football on the peripheral, so Newton was merely an ideal to me until the season started; a player with all the talent followed by all the drama. I certainly didn’t do my due diligence, and based solely on what I heard from ESPN Cam Newton struck me as arrogant and maybe a bit entitled. I was getting strong, strong whiffs of Jamarcus Russell from the Auburn product.

But now, almost two weeks have gone by and just like everyone else, I find myself inexplicably drawn to the aura surrounding Cam Newton. I think its two parts his demeanor (calm and collected), four parts his humble attitude towards the NFL (his comments about the Packers), and five parts his eye-popping talent. As you know from this piece, I’ve been in situations surrounded by people better than I am. For myself, it’s better writers; for Cam Newton, it’s better quarterbacks. The strong and driven among us learn from the experience, while the weak drown under the pressure.

So far, I think it's safe to say Professor Newton is doing everything but drowning...

7. Believe in the Bills at your own risk…

I’m such a douche; I just can’t soak in the glow of a feel-good-story and relish in the rise of the under-dog Harvard graduate, can I? I’m sure I’ll burn in hell at some point for this, buttttt…

The Bills were dominant against a Kansas City team that is far, far worse than the most hated of the haters could have predicted. Not only are they naturally bad, but their best offensive (Jamaal Charles) AND defensive player (Eric Berry) are done for the season. After the football gods were done with Indianapolis, they obviously set their sights on Kansas City.

After a 41-7 thrashing of the Chiefs, the Bills went on to eke out a victory against the Oakland Raiders. It was certainly heroic, as the stoic Chan Gailey can attest to, but they were down 21-3 at one point. If the RAIDERS hung 35 points on Buffalo’s defense; imagine what the Patriots will do, or any other above average offense.

But with Fitzpatrick tossing frozen ropes and Fred Jackson becoming 2011’s don’t-look-away-or-you-might-miss-an-insane-touchdown-run running back, the Buffalo Bills are a hell of a lot of fun to watch. We haven’t been able to say that for a while…

Week 2 Picks

It’s week two, which means we’re that much closer to a clearer picture of the NFL landscape. Will the Bills return to mediocrity; does Kerry Collins right the ship; do the Texans begin their customary disappearing act after a dominant opening weekend victory?

Here’s the key to week two: don’t overreact to anything that happened in week one. Don’t bury the Steelers if you really like them just because they played the sloppiest game of their collective lives against a hungry division rival. You can’t really glean anything useful until week four. With that in mind, here are my week two picks…

Kansas City Chiefs @ Detroit Lions -8

I thought the Chiefs would be bad, but not losing by 34 to a non-contender bad. Consider how Kansas City Coach Todd Haley decided to rest his starters throughout the preseason and reportedly did nothing but conditioning drills through training camp, and I guess it’s not really a surprise that they lost handily to the Bills. Now that safety Eric Berry is done for the year, how can anyone expect the Chiefs to walk into Detroit and beat the Lions?

Oakland Raiders @ Buffalo Bills -2.5



Did you know that Ryan Fitzpatrick went to Harvard?! According to the always reliable Wikipedia, Fitzpatrick finished in the top one percent of his high school class and was named the 5th smartest professional athlete by Sporting News. I don’t know what this means, but I sure am tired of ESPN stuffing this information down our throats.

In other news, Oakland’s top two wideouts are out and Jason Campbell is still the Quarterback. Oakland might actually throw it less than they did against Denver. Buffalo owned last year’s 31st ranked run defense, and they’ll need to show improvement against the Raiders or else Darren McFadden will make a lot of fantasy owners VERY happy.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2 @ Minnesota Vikings

This game is like throwing crap against the wall—of course that’s pretty much what Donovan McNabb did last week against the Chargers. It’s almost hard to throw for only 39 yards in today’s NFL. Last Sunday, 14 quarterbacks threw for over 300 yards and four threw for over 400. Essentially, McNabb was outplayed by Kyle Orton, Chad Henne, Rex Grossman, and Kevin Kolb. Until McNabb shows any signs of life I simply can’t trust the Vikings.

Chicago Bears +2.5 @ New Orleans Saints

Are we sure the Saints can play defense anymore? Drew Brees could make a quadriplegic monkey look competent at wide receiver but surely the offense will suffer without Marques Colston, New Orleans top wideout. Chicago probably won’t get a defensive score and two other turnovers again, but the way the Saints defense looked last weekend even Donovan McNabb could pose as Tom Brady.

Baltimore Ravens -6 @ Tennessee Titans

If the Titans—or one of my fantasy teams—have a hope this season, they need better than 24 yards on nine carries from Chris Johnson. On the bright side, Matt Hasselbeck looked decent throwing for 263 yards and two touchdowns. He threw a duck to lose the game and it was against the Jaguars, but that was as promising a start as you could hope for. But the Ravens dominated what many perceived to be the best team in the NFL, and until they show us otherwise, I’m riding the Ravens. To where, who knows.

Cleveland Browns @ Indianapolis Colts +1.5



What do you think Peyton Manning did while the Colts were getting massacred by the Texans? Is his expression a permanent ‘Manning face’ at this point? I’ll go with the Colts only because Cleveland looked so deplorable against the Bengals.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ New York Jets -9

I don’t have to write anything for this one, do I? It’s Luke McCown vs. the Jets defense! It’s a wide receiver who no one has ever heard of trash-talking Darrelle Revis! What could possibly go wrong?

Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers -13



Angry Mike Tomlin press conferences are terrifying. Angry Mike Tomlin in the locker room must be crap-your-pants scary. Most coaches are either belligerent and short on patience after losses (think Todd Haley) or quiet and steaming (Bill Belichick). Tomlin is neither, he’s more crazy guy, ‘I’ll start throwing chairs at people’ angry. Those are the guys I’m most afraid of. I wouldn’t be surprised if Tomlin gorilla-glued a football to Roethlisberger’s hand this week after he was responsible for five of Pittsburgh’s seven turnovers. In short, expect the Steelers to annihilate the Seahawks—not just to save their season—but because of crazy guy Mike Tomlin.

Arizona Cardinals +3 @ Washington Redskins

STAY AWAY FROM THIS GAME. I’m all caught up in Cardinal-mania (if there is such a thing), but we really don’t know how good either of these teams are. That’s the thing about week one—Arizona may have looked brilliant because they played the Panthers and Washington may have gotten their one good Grossman game of the year. Speaking of Rex, recall these stats I presented HERE regarding his famed inconsistency.

Consider yourself warned…

Green Bay Packers -12 @ Carolina Panthers

I’ve got absolutely nothing against Cam Newton but I can’t wait until his inevitable collapse against the Packer’s defense just so I don’t have to hear about how ‘magical’ his week one performance was. And believe me, this is probably the most difficult matchup Cam could ask for. Dom Capers is known for his complicated zone blitz schemes, and Newton is not necessarily known for dissecting defenses with the precision of a surgeon.

Dallas Cowboys -6 @ San Francisco 49ers

Tony Romo’s interception to essentially seal Dallas’ fate Sunday night was comically bad (I read it the whole way), but let’s all remember that San Francisco needed two moments of Ted Ginn brilliance to win. Against the Seahawks. Despite THREE Seattle turnovers and ELEVEN penalties. Alex Smith threw for only 120 yards, and according to the Football Outsiders, Frank Gore had the worst rushing performance of the week.

Here’s what I’m taking way too long to get at: Dallas is good but choked in miserable fashion and San Francisco is worse than mediocre because they needed a duo of incredible special team’s plays to eke out a victory against possibly the league’s worst team.

San Diego Chargers @ New England Patriots -3

Two nights ago I dreamt that Tom Brady threw for 731 yards against the Chargers. I swear on the life of my unborn children that this was an actual dream I had. I remember nothing else besides cracking open the newspaper (which I NEVER do), checking the box score, and nearly feinting after seeing the passing total. I don’t know what’s stranger: the fact that I dream about Tom Brady, that I read the newspaper to check stats, or that somewhere in my brain I believe it’s even possible for an NFL quarterback to throw for 700+ yards. But that puts into perspective the kind of night Brady had. The bottom line: I’m riding Brady until he stumbles. Period. The end.

Houston Texans -5 @ Miami Dolphins

Would I be surprised if Houston lost by 20 to the Dolphins? Only mildly, because it’s the Texans and the Wade Philips-Gary Kubiak combo is terrifying.

Tom Brady’s virtuoso evisceration of Miami’s defense Monday night may have us under-valuing the fish, but Houston’s elite offense should also be able to do naughty things to the Dolphins.

Cincinnati Bengals +1.5 @ Denver Broncos

Denver could quite possibly be facing Cincinnati without their three best players: Champ Bailey, Elvis Dumervil, and Brandon Lloyd. Cedric Benson is no Darren McFadden, but Oakland did amass 190 yards on the ground against the putrid Denver defense. Here’s what the Bengals can do reasonably well: run the ball, play defense, and play physical football. Putting any sort of trust in Andy Dalton on the road is only terrifying until you realize Kyle Orton will be playing with Tim Tebow chants ringing in his ears. Poor guy.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Atlanta Falcons +2.5



Upset pick of the week! Atlanta’s defeat looked much more like a product of sloppiness and bad luck last week than an actual regression.

Remember how Stephen Jackson gashed the Eagles on a 40-yard touchdown run the first play of the game week one? The point is: that run defense looks soft. If Atlanta can control the tempo of the game with a healthy dose of Michael Turner (who had ten carries for 100 yards against the Bears) than they’ve got a real chance. That seems like it will be the blueprint all season to beat Philadelphia: control the clock via the run, pound the defense, wear them out, and keep Vick on the sideline as long as possible.

And if I hear one more debate on First Take about how many fans will be wearing Vick jersey’s in the Georgia Dome I might kick a puppy.

St. Louis Rams @ New York Giants -6

What’s worse for the Rams, the fact that Danny Amendola is out with a dislocated elbow or that he is their top wideout—all 5’11 of him? Imagine the Patriots offense if you took away Hernandez, Gronkowski, Branch, Ocho Cinco, and Price, then surrounded Welker with a bunch of mediocre wide receivers who can’t catch. That’s St. Louis’ situation right now. Sure, New York was shredded by Rex Grossman, but now they get Justin Tuck back. I hate this pick.

Lock of the Week: Detroit Lions OVER Kansas City Chiefs

Upset of the Week: Atlanta Falcons OVER Philadelphia Eagles

Pounding of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Seattle Seahawks

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 8-8

The Morning After--Week 1

Do things ever really change in the NFL? Tony Romo is still inconceivably frustrating, the Chargers STILL can’t defend a kickoff return, Donovan McNabb and Kerry Collins are more washed up than a beached whale, Rex Ryan is as repulsive ever, and Rex Grossman remains a perennial MVP candidate.



WAIT, WHAT?

Okay, okay, maybe things change. Occasionally. Let’s get right to it…

1. Rexy is looking awfully sexy...

I’m not willing to crown Grossman the next Dan Marino quite yet, but he was mighty impressive against the Giants—even if they were down their best defensive player in Justin Tuck. However, I would be weary if I was a Redskin fan as Rex has ever been an inconsistent one. In 2006—his career year—Grossman had eight games with a quarterback rating better than 98.0. Unfortunately, he finished the season with a 73.9 rating because he had four sub-37.0 games including a 10.3 gem against the Cardinals and a 1.3 debacle against the Vikings.

With that said, he was PHENOMENAL Sunday. He made some jaw-dropping beautiful throws usually reserved for Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the best. That fade to Anthony Armstrong with 40 seconds left in the half was absolutely perfect, and that’s probably the hardest throw in the game.

2. Dissecting Kevin Kolb and Arizona’s performance…



I have a lot riding on the Cardinals this season (like my reputation), and that’s probably not a good thing.

Here’s what I took away from game one:

-Kevin Kolb was impressive. Not only did he pass the stats test (18/27, 309 yards, 2 touchdowns and zero picks), but he looked good also. He tossed a couple of errant passes (like a near interception in the red zone) but he also beat the blitz multiple times (once for a touchdown) and made some nice plays on the run. It’s easy to dismiss a solid performance against the Panthers, but Carolina’s defense is finally healthy—and they still got shredded. The real test comes next week against Washington…

-Beanie Wells looks roughly 748 percent better than he did last season. Sure, he completely muffed a toss in the red zone, but he ran for 90 yards on 18 carries and punched it in on a seven yard run.

-Arizona’s secondary looks truly awful. Houston’s 2010 defensive backfield might have company as one of the worst in recent memory. Rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson is wildly athletic, but he was beaten constantly by Steve Smith. Unfortunately for the Cardinals he’s probably their best option at corner. Let’s hope he grows into the role…

3. Can anyone explain Baltimore’s decision to go for two up 27-7?

This may seem minor, but why would Baltimore waste a nifty play to have in their back pocket to lead Pittsburgh by 29 rather than 27? I can’t think of one logical reason other than it would be fun to humiliate the Steelers even further…

4. Regarding kickoffs…

Kicks are sailing eight-nine yards deep into the end zone yet players are still taking the ball out and attempting a return. Under the old rules, where balls were kicked from the 30 rather than the 35 and boomers that went deep into the end zone were much less common, returners would rarely attempt to return such deep kicks. Yet here they are, practically catching the ball under the field goal post, and attempting returns when the opponent’s coverage team is already at the 10 when they’re crossing the plain of the end zone.

Most ‘experts’ thought that the new kickoff rule would virtually remove the return game as a serious weapon. Yet on opening weekend FIVE kicks were returned for touchdowns. But for as many home runs as we got, there were just as many duds that resulted in drives starting from the 10-15 yard line—a starting point usually reserved for excellent punts; not kickoffs. Are players choosing to return these kicks out of boredom, or perhaps because they would like to prove the doubters wrong? I can’t imagine either the head coach or special team’s coordinator being comfortable with such a high-risk, high-reward type of play.

As far as why five kicks were taken to the house? I have a theory that it’s due to more momentum and more time for blockers to get in position. We need a Sports Science segment on this…

5. Matthew Stafford and friends aced test number one…

That was a massive win for Detroit. A big loss in week one could have brought an abrupt end to the momentum accrued from a fantastic preseason. Stafford started things off with an overthrown ball that resulted in a pick six, but after that he was flawless. Of course, throwing to Calvin Johnson always helps. Johnson is the best receiver in football, right? Check out this catch:

This game wasn’t as close as the score indicates. Take away the defensive touchdown and a Mike Williams toe-tap score with under two minutes left, and Tampa Bay would have scored only six points. In the first three quarters Tampa Bay’s drives went like this: field goal, punt, interception, punt, field goal, punt, punt, punt. The Buccaneers had FIVE three-and-outs in the first three quarters.

6. What—if anything—should we make of the Pittsburgh debacle?



Pittsburgh turned the ball over seven times. I would be surprised if the Steelers turned the ball over that may times ever again in the Roethlisberger era. The entire offense looked out of synch (exhibit A: when Mendenhall got crushed by Ngata just as he was receiving the hand-off and fumbled the ball) and the defense couldn’t get any pressure on the quarterback, couldn’t tackle, and couldn’t stop the run. How many times do you hear that about a Pittsburgh defense…especially this particular one? Baltimore certainly seemed more prepared and focused, but this type of visceral defeat won’t happen to the 2011 Steelers again.

7. Cramps, cramps, and more cramps…

By my completely unofficial count these are the players I noticed suffering from cramps: Jared Allen, Josh Freeman, Dez Bryant, Darelle Revis, Vontae Davis, Sean Smith, and Brandon Marshall. Shortened offseason, anyone?

8. Why the Falcons shouldn’t be worried…

Let’s play a little game: which team—either the Falcons or Bears—got the most first downs on Sunday, ran more plays, gained more total yards, and ran for more yards? It wasn’t the Bears. Atlanta moved the ball well (only two three-and-outs, and three drives of ten plays or longer), but was crushed by turnovers and a huge defensive touchdown by Brian Urlacher. Thanks to a 13 point deficit by the half and an insurmountable 24-point hole heading into the final period, Atlanta was forced to throw the ball for much of the game. That’s a shame considering Michael Turner gained 100 yards on the ground on only ten carries. Chicago certainly made the big plays to win, but just like Pittsburgh, Atlanta’s mistakes were correctable.

Week 1 Picks

It has been eight months since year one of the weekend pick em’ column finished up. Now, after a lockout, a gut-wrenching postseason that saw my beloved Patriots lose to their arch-rivals, and a furiously fast offseason we’re back in action. This year, it’s gonna’ be better than ever. Rather than attempting to discern the exact score of every game (about as likely as Gisele Bundchen walking through my front door) I’m moving to a more gambler friendly format. I’m predicting games against the spread not because I’m a degenerate gambler, but because it’s more challenging than simply picking the winners every Sunday. If you have no idea how the ‘spread’ or ‘odds’ work click HERE.

One last note: week one is always HIGHLY unpredictable. Every year we get at least one crap-your-pants shocker. Last season it was the Colts losing to the Texans by double digits and San Francisco losing to Seattle by 25 points. You really can’t call these things correctly unless you simply go through the list and pick every winner randomly. Therefore, I like to stick to my guns, wait it out, and see what happens. I go with the teams I simply think are better. It's not until week four that we can get a real feel for the NFL landscape.

Atlanta Falcons -6.5 @ Chicago Bears

If Atlanta fancies themselves Super Bowl contenders they need to take care of business against the decidedly mediocre Chicago Bears. This one has trap game written all over it, but I’m being a good degenerate NFL fan and sticking to the squad I like better. That would be the Falcons.

What to watch: Julio Jones. He’s been off to a fast start by all accounts, but how does he acclimate to real, game-time pro football? Atlanta traded most of their 2011 draft, and reportedly sold the rights to Matt Ryan’s unborn child for the wideout, so they need him to break the mold of recent rookie wide receivers and put up big numbers immediately.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns -3



Andy Dalton vs. Colt McCoy—the matchup you’ve all been waiting for, live on CBS! Combine a shortened offseason program, a rookie quarterback passing to a rookie wideout, a sophomore quarterback passing to no one, two semi-strong running games, and this one has 7-3 written all over it.

What to watch: Peyton Hillis if you hit the bong before your fantasy draft and took him higher than the fourth round. But for the rest of us, the Andy Dalton-A.J Green combo. Both are rookies, both are highly touted, and both are playing positions that are historically quite unfriendly to rookies.

Buffalo Bills @ Kansas City Chiefs -6

Kansas City certainly looks mediocre, but they can’t blow a home game against the Bills, right? Wait, can they? CAN THEY? They probably can…but first let me throw a stat at you. Buffalo was last year’s 31st best rushing defense. Kansas City owned the league’s 9th best rushing attack. Buffalo drafted unreasonably large Marcell Dareus with the third pick in the draft to put next to pro-bowl defensive tackle Kyle Williams. Their run defense should be better, but not good enough to stop one of the game’s better rushing attacks.

What to watch: An uninteresting game to put it mildly, but I would like to see my ‘Kansas City will suck’ theory put to the test. It’s not likely to happen this week as the Bills are even awful-er, but if it does, oh boy…

Philadelphia Eagles -2 @ St. Louis Rams

Remember the whole ‘sticking to your guns in week 1’ theory? That’s being tested right now. Philadelphia hasn’t figured out how to integrate all their pieces and looked really messy throughout the preseason. The offensive line and linebackers in particular, looked shaky. And now they’re on the road, against a possible playoff squad that can rush the passer. Not to beat a dead horse, but I’m going with the more talented squad—on paper at least.

What to watch: A few things I’m interested in. First, I would like to see how far Sam Bradford has progressed since his rookie campaign. Second, of course, I’d like to see if the Eagles actually look like a team. I’m particularly interested in that defense, and how Asante Samuel (a zone corner who likes to jump passing routes) and Nnamdi (a prototypical man coverage corner) play together.

Detroit Lions +3 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Where can I lay odds on all 300 pounds of Gerald McCoy landing on Matt Stafford and injuring his shoulder? There’s got to be somewhere, right?

Although I’m not completely sold on Detroit as the next team to crash the party, I strongly believe that the Buc’s are in line to take a step back. Not only did they catch some good breaks last year; but I haven’t liked the vibes emanating from Tampa Bay. I can smell their complacency from 600 miles away.

What to watch: Matthew Stafford. Detroit’s season rests on his shoulders. A fantastic preseason has set the bar way, way too high and I’m not sure Stafford can meet it. I’d like to see if he can.

Tennessee Titans +6 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

I really think this is going to be an ugly season in Jacksonville. If their games were being blacked out when they were in the thick of the playoff hunt last year, what’s going to happen when they’re 2-8 come November? Anytime you can waive David Garrard for Luke McCown you HAVE to do it!

What to watch: How does Matt Hasselbeck look after having no more than a month to learn a new offense and develop a repertoire with his receivers? Tennessee’s season looks a whole lot less hopeful with Jake Locker under center rather than Hasselbeck…

Pittsburgh Titans +1 @ Baltimore Ravens

Baltimore is getting way too much respect against Pittsburgh—even if they are at home. Their offense is going to be bad people, really bad. These contests are always brutal—that’s why I’m giving Pittsburgh only a point—but I see the Steelers running away with the division this year. Baltimore’s thrown together offensive line doesn’t have a prayer against the Steeler’s pass rush. Anytime you have to call an offensive line ‘thrown together’ you should be weary.

What to watch: Keep a lookout for any signs of the Super Bowl-losers hangover. I’m keeping this line low out of respect, but really, the Steeler’s better talent dictates something like a 24-13 victory.

Indianapolis Colts @ Houston Texans -10

This one needs little explanation. If Houston loses this, I’m ditching the bandwagon and driving it into the Gulf of Mexico. Is their season over if they lose to the Manning-less Colts week one?

What to watch: If you didn’t fully appreciate Peyton Manning before, behold the Indianapolis offense without ‘the professor’ under center.

New York Giants @ Washington +3



The vibes coming out of New York are a little too similar to the 10’ Redskins for my taste. Players are unhappy with their contracts, Manning’s security blanket receiver Steve Smith is gone, Plaxico Burress continues to haunt the team off the field, and a recent rash of injuries has all jeopardized New York’s playoff hopes. If Sexy Rexy can hold the fort for a season, there is a chance the Giants could slip all the way to fourth place in the division. In short, Washington is catching Big Blue at exactly the right time.

What to watch: Grossman’s stats have always been ugly. His career year was average, but if he can play at a competent level Washington has a chance to be in the playoff hunt come December. Sunday is our first opportunity to see Grossman at work.

Seattle Seahawks @ San Francisco 49er’s -6

Tarvaris Jackson vs. Alex Smith…not exactly the Brady-Manning bowl. This one will come down to which quarterback screws up the least, and for some reason, I find myself gravitating towards Alex Smith. That’s probably not a good thing.

What to watch: You probably shouldn’t, but if you do, let me know if Jackson is a competent quarterback. According to the Seattle Media, he’s Captain Composure.

Minnesota Vikings @ San Diego Chargers -10

Slow starts: the beat the Chargers have marched to for three years. It’s concerning, but I’ll give them the benefit of the doubt for the third straight season.

San Diego should annihilate the Vikings. They’ve got better players at every position but running back, and Minnesota’s second best player—defensive tackle Kevin Williams—is out serving a suspension.

What to watch: San Diego’s offense. Is Ryan Mathews as good as he’s looked through the preseason; is Vincent Jackson primed to have a huge year; does the unit look like it’s clicking? All questions I want answers to.

Carolina Panthers @ Arizona Cardinals -6

I touted the Cardinals in my season preview (which you can read HERE). If they lose to the Panthers I might need to wear a bag over my head for the season. This one might look like a crap-fest but I’ve got WAY too much riding on Kevin Kolb being a competent quarterback. I think he will be, but that doesn’t mean I haven’t lost a considerable amount of sleep over it.

What to watch: This one should be pretty obvious: Kevin Kolb! Is he Johnny Unitas reincarnate or Derek Anderson 2.0? I think he’ll fall somewhere in between—maybe a destitute man’s Drew Brees. We shall see on Sunday.

Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets -4

An intriguing matchup if it weren't for the surreal number of injuries Dallas has sustained over the past week. Rookie tackle Tyron Smith is out, starting corner Terrence Newman is out, and corner Mike Jenkins is questionable. Mark Sanchez may actually be able to complete some passes. Oh, and did I mention that the Jets have added motivation thanks to the comments Dallas defensive coordinator Rob Ryan made about his brother’s foot fiasco? Remember the last time someone made fun of his foot fetish? That didn’t end too well.

What to watch: The quarterbacks. Is Tony Romo his old 4000-yard passing self? My fantasy team sure hopes so. Is Mark Sanchez the same old Mark Sanchez, or did his summer photo shoot for GQ leave him a changed man?

New England Patriots -9 @ Miami Dolphins

Miami’s defense remains strong, but their offense actually got worse this offseason. They went from a Ronnie Brown-Ricky Williams backfield to Reggie Bush and the ill-favored Daniel Thomas. Thomas is questionable for Sunday and Reggie Bush is still Reggie Bush—meaning he likes to dance, is a decent receiving threat out of the backfield, and probably can’t carry the rock 20+ times a game (As an aside, I purposely avoided the obvious Kim Kardashian joke. You're welcome) . It’s always concerning when an offense doesn’t have a real strength, and the Dolphins certainly do not.

What to watch: Nate Solder and the Patriot’s offensive line. Sebastian Vollmer hasn’t practiced in a week thanks to a back injury, so it looks like Nate Solder will be thrown into the fire week one. It’s not necessarily a bad thing as Solder looked good throughout the preseason, but rushing the passer is one of Miami’s greatest strengths. Cameron Wake had 14 sacks last season. If New England experiences a pass-blocking disaster akin to what we’ll call ‘Ndamukong-gate’, Miami has a shot in the dark.

Oakland Raiders @ Denver Broncos -2.5

I think Denver will be much improved this season. Maybe not 8-8 improved, but they should be entertaining at the very least. Kyle Orton is competent under center and John Fox should bring some order to the chaos left by Josh McDaniels.

Oakland, on the other hand, continues to be Oakland.

What to watch: The Von Miller-Elvis Dumervil combo, which has a chance to become really impressive.

And check out Von Miller, that man has style.



Lock of the Week: Arizona Cardinals OVER Carolina Panthers

Upset of the Week: Washington Redskins OVER New York Giants

Pounding of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Miami Dolphins

A Truly Epic NFL Preview--The Sequel

Welcome to Part II of my 2011 season preview. If you missed Part I just scroll down, or if you’re especially lazy like me, click here. Just like if you were watching Lost for the first time, I highly suggest that you start with Part I.

Also, I’m a huge fan of the Football Outsiders and their work with advanced football statistics. Unless I say otherwise, I take my stats exclusively from the Football Outsiders. In short, they’re way, way more accurate and informative than anything you can get on ESPN or from the NFL. I urge you to click HERE, and check out their work. To learn more about DVOA, their basic stat, click HERE.

THE DECLINERS

Here are teams I believe will be noticeably worse than last year. There will be non-playoff teams from last season that actually get worse, but that’s way too depressing and unimportant. Here I’m just covering playoff teams that will decline. NOTE: this doesn’t necessarily mean they will miss the postseason; just that they will be worse.

CHICAGO BEARS (11-5)*



It was hard to like the Bears in 2010 and it’s even harder to like them in 2011. Dig into the stats and you’ll like them even less. Consider their offensive line and we might as well just move on.

Chicago’s line play was obviously horrific, so to fix it they drafted a right tackle and cut their best lineman in center Olin Kreutz. Then, to “improve” the 28th best pass offense of 2010 the Bears traded tight end Greg Olsen and grabbed Roy Williams off of the scrap heap. Williams hasn’t caught more than 40 balls once in four years and has failed spectacularly wherever he’s played. And reports indicate that’s it’s not going well in Chicago.

Now factor in the new kickoff rules and it looks like Chicago’s greatest weapon will be at least partially eliminated. According to Football Outsiders Chicago had the best special teams unit of 2010 and the threat of a Devin Hester run back is probably Chicago’s greatest strength. With kickoffs moved to the 35 it shouldn’t be a factor. Their second greatest strength is the sixth best defense in the NFL. Unfortunately, their best defensive players—Julius Peppers, Brian Urlacher, Charles Tillman, and Lance Briggs—are all 30 years or older.

The bottom line: Chicago’s offense will continue to be amongst the worst in the league, their defense is another year older (though it should still be good), and their greatest strength was virtually eliminated from the game. A few writers way more “in the know” than myself are drinking the Kool-Aid about the Bear’s improved offensive line, but it’s really, really hard to imagine them making a huge jump this season; especially considering the amount of inexperience and the type of pass rushers they face in the NFC North.

Now that Green Bay is healthy and primed to win a lot of regular season games and Detroit is semi-respectable, it’s hard to envision Chicago making the playoffs for a second year in a row—or even get to .500.

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS (10-6)*


The Manning face! I couldn't resist...

Look, everyone outside of Indiana is chomping at the bit to knock Indianapolis off its high horse. They’ve been good for an unnaturally long time. Remember those numbers I presented in part one about how rare it’s been over the past five years for teams to have back-to-back 12+ win seasons? The Colts are the big exception. They’ve been grabbing high playoff seeds over the past decade like it’s easy.

Last season it was hip to pick the Texans over the Colts. Everyone who jumped on the bandwagon looked smart after the Texans won two in a row, but then Peyton Manning threw for 4,700 yards, coached the team, coached the offense, cooked team meals, drove the bus, flew the plane, and convinced Gary Kubiak to throw the season. So here we are in 2011, possibly falling into the same trap, bemoaning the Colt’s talent level, and doubting Peyton Manning’s ability to play.

But doesn’t it set up so perfectly? Manning is officially doubtful (UPDATE: He’s officially out) for week one and his status is rather shaky beyond that. The Colt’s talent level besides Manning has been weak for years, and Houston seems like the better all-around team.

The bottom line: Indianapolis has to travel to Houston for week one; a game that will surely not feature Peyton Manning. It hasn’t happened yet, but I think this is the year injury, a trilogy of sucktastic drafts, and a sub-par collection of talent finally catches up to the Colts. Believe me, it’s as difficult as ever to pick against the Colts, but unless you think old greybeard Kerry Collins has it in him to run the Colts offense after two weeks of practice, than be my guest.

BALTIMORE RAVENS (12-4)*

The hardest team to read. They’re inscrutable. Here’s what we know:

-Ed Reed is an all-timer. He had eight picks and 16 pass deflections in ten games last season. Ten games. No other player in the league except Troy Polamalu can give you that sort of production in a full season! A full 16 games of Reed is bigger than most people realize…

-Joe Flacco had his best year yet in 2010, but the offense declined from 8th to 12th in DVOA. Baltimore attempted to solidify their receiving group with Lee Evans, but he hasn’t produced in three years and he was in a walking boot as recently as last week. Without him Flacco’s got Anquan Boldin (who had his worst season since 2004), Ray Rice out of the backfield, and, and…some other wideouts I guarantee you can’t name.

-MAJOR questions along the offensive line. Michael Oher is back at right tackle after originally playing the blindside in high school and college, switching to the right side his rookie season, then going back to the left last year. Unfortunately it’s not because he’s known for his versatility, rather his play protecting Joe Flacco’s blindside was so ugly last season that he failed to solidify himself as a franchise left tackle. Instead, free agent Bryant McKinnie—who was cut by the Vikings—will play left tackle. Anytime you can start a guy who was cut by a mediocre 6-10 team and plug him in at one of the most important positions in football you’ve got to do it.

The bottom line: It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Ravens nab a wildcard spot, but I don’t see them even sniffing 12 wins again. They’ve got questions along the offensive line, amongst the receiving group, in the secondary, and in generating a pass rush. That’s a lot of questions.

KANSAS CITY CHIEFS (11-5)*



The sexy regression pick. Everyone and their mother think the Chiefs will crash back down to earth after a 2010 playoff berth.

Two reasons why they’ll be fantastically mediocre this season:

-The Chiefs got hit with the third hardest schedule in the league. Not only that, but the Chiefs went 2-4 in the AFC West during a down year in which no other team got past nine wins. This year, with a budding juggernaut in San Diego, a revamped squad in Denver and an always feisty team in Oakland, Kansas City could have an even worse division record.

-Matt Cassel threw an interception on only 1.6 percent of his passes. Read that again. That’s close to 2010 Tom Brady’s equally unsustainable .81 percent interception rate, and Brady is a hall of fame quarterback. Considering the slate of pass defenses Cassel faced in 2010 (11 in the bottom half of the league and 7 ranked 25th or worse) it’s reasonable to assume Cassel will take a step back.

The bottom line: I’ll wear a Lakers jersey for a week if the Chiefs win the division for a second year in a row. How badly Cassel regresses is the question that will determine the Chief’s fate. If he regresses back to his 2009 numbers (his first year as a Chief)—2,924 yards, 16 touchdowns, 16 interceptions, and a 69.9 quarterback rating—than it will be a long year in Kansas City.

*Those are last year’s records

So far we’ve covered teams on the rise and teams on the decline. Now we’ll get into my misguided predictions on Super Bowl contenders, playoff participants, and who will represent in the Super Bowl. Caveats apply…

THE FAVORITES

New England Patriots

After taking a slight step back in 2010, New England’s defense should be better in 2011. If even one of their 76 new defensive lineman can make a significant impact expect a big jump. With Leigh Bodden returning after missing all of 2010, and with the addition of rookie Ras-I-Dowling the Patriot’s secondary looks to also improve. With Belichick switching to a 4-3 as his base defense and using middle linebacker Jerod Mayo in a more aggressive role the unit could have a whole new look. If the unit can break into the top ten the Patriots could be the best team in the league.

New Orleans Saints

New Orleans made a ton of solid personnel decisions over the offseason and kept the core of their veteran team together in a year where the most veteran squads might have an advantage thanks to continuity. By his own standard set the past four years Drew Brees was not very good in 2010. He threw 22 interceptions (his highest total ever) and his YPA (yards per attempt) was only 7.02—well, well below the 8.54 number he posted during the Super Bowl winning year. Furthermore, Brees threw the ball 658 times—144 more passes than he threw in 2009—when the Saints featured a more balanced offense (5th in pass DVOA and first in rushing DVOA). In 2010 the Saints rushing attack plummeted to 25th overall and their offense went from the second ranked to the 11th. With Mark Ingram on board and the backfield as a whole finally healthy expect a massive improvement on the ground, leading to a more balanced offense and less of a burden on Brees’ right arm.

San Diego Chargers

I wrote a lot about them in Part I (click HERE), but suffice to say I LOVE the Chargers. They’re healthy, Ryan Mathew’s looks better; first round pick Corey Liuget looks super legit, and their special teams woes are so 2010. The only thing holding me back from crowning them the inevitable champions is their history of playoff flops under Norv Turner. On second thought, let’s just move on before I change my mind…

Pittsburgh Steelers and Green Bay Packers

I’m lumping these two together because they’re both eligible “Super Bowl Hangover” candidates. Green Bay looks primed to be the first repeat champion since the 03’-04’ Patriots. It’s difficult to imagine how they even won the championship with the injuries they sustained throughout the season. Jermichael Finley’s return is gigantic, as he’s one of the four or five best tight ends in the league. Considering how prolific Green Bay’s offense was last year, imagine what it will look like with a pro-bowl caliber tight end in the lineup.

Pittsburgh has missed the playoffs every season after they’ve played in the Super Bowl this decade, but top to bottom their roster looks solid. Football Outsiders DVOA projection system thinks Pittsburgh will hover somewhere around 13 wins when the regular season is finished. That should give you an indication of what Pittsburgh’s roster looks like. Factor in Mike Wallace’s inevitable assent to top-5 wide receiver status and a full 16 games of Roethlisberger and the Steelers look as good, or better than in 2010. The only questions remaining are the aging defense, ramshackle offensive line (didn’t stop them last year), and the threat of the ever present Super Bowl hangover.

Philadelphia Eagles



Their offensive line is a mess. Casey Mathews looks completely overwhelmed as the mike linebacker. Michael Vick looked frustrated all preseason. The defense hasn’t quite clicked. For all the talent they’ve assembled, the Eagles look like they really could have used the entire offensive program to assimilate their new players. Factor in their tough opening schedule (at St. Louis, at Atlanta, vs. New York Giants, vs. San Francisco) and a 2-2 start or worse is a real possibility. Furthermore, I’m worried that Vick will regress in 2011. After avoiding interceptions for the first seven games of 2010, Vick threw a pick in six straight games—including one against Green Bay in the playoffs that ended his season. He seemed to return to his old self at times down the stretch and was banged up all season.

That sounds horribly pessimistic, but then I look at Philadelphia’s talent laden roster and I have to pick my jaw up off the floor. Their crop of cornerbacks is easily tops in the league and their offense is causing spontaneous orgasms in fantasy players everywhere. Perhaps the biggest storyline of the season will be how long it takes for the Eagles new collection of talent to “click”. It’s been every columnist’s narrative of choice throughout the preseason, but there really are some scary parallels between the Eagles and 2010 Miami Heat. Team building is hard in the NFL; we’ll see how it works out…

SUPER BOWL PICK

San Diego Chargers OVER Green Bay Packers

Look for my Thursday night picks on Twitter (@Owens992), my weekly picks column every Friday (or Saturday if I am feeling irrationally lazy), and for my “The Morning After” weekend review every Tuesday. I hope you’re as excited as I am for Andy Dalton interceptions, more Gus Johnson, the Gary Kubiak-Wade Phillips combo of ultimate apathy, and at least 93 columnists drawing parallels between the Heat and Eagles. To paraphrase Bart Scott, CAN’T WAIT!

A Truly Epic NFL Preview--Part I

Thanks Roger and DeMaurice for giving me a chance to write about the NFL again, even if I kind of hated you for four months. You were right; we did all come back fast! Let’s make this the last mention of the NFL lockout ever, OK? Is that a deal?

Also, I’m a huge fan of the Football Outsiders and their work with advanced football statistics. Unless I say otherwise, I take my stats exclusively from the Football Outsiders. In short, they’re way, way more accurate and informative than anything you can get on ESPN or from the NFL. I urge you to click HERE, and check out their work. To learn more about DVOA, their basic stat, click HERE.


A lot of people go through life thinking they know everything. This is especially true in the field of sports analysis where talking heads and “experts” bloviate endlessly over the most miniscule minutiae. Any sports fan understands this and the truly enlightened among us realize we know nothing. NOTHING. I might think the Patriots will have a successful season, but I’m as confident in this assertion as I am that Phil Simms will receive the Rozelle Award. Ok, I’m probably a little more confident in my beloved Patriots than Simms winning the NFL’s most prestigious broadcasting award, but my point stands. The National Football League is the definition of insanity, and that’s 90 percent of the league’s success in a nutshell. It’s impossible to predict. Crazy shit happens. There’s an Arian Foster and Brandon Lloyd every year.

So with that out of the way, welcome to my first annual Mega-NFL Preview! I hope you’ve come with an open mind, because that’s the first ingredient required to have a successful and healthy viewing experience. The second is faith, because Super Bowl winners rarely (by rarely I mean never) look like bonifide contenders the entire season. And if they do, something inevitably goes horribly, horribly wrong. 2007 Patriots, I’m looking at you. So do your research, pick your favorites, and stick to your guns regardless of the wild, capricious ride that is the regular season. If you’re constantly reevaluating your choices and adapting to the ever-changing NFL landscape you will not only end up favoring two-thirds of the NFL at various points, but you’ll drive yourself insane. Trust me, I’ve been there, done that.

Three massively important theories to live by:

1) It’s hard to win 12+ games in the NFL. Going back to 2002, only the Colts, Patriots, and Eagles have had back-to-back 12+ win seasons. In the past three seasons it’s only happened once—by the 08’-09’ Colts, in the last year of their incredible streak of five seasons with at least twelve victories.

In short, expect 12+ win teams to take a step back rather than improve on their win totals. It doesn’t necessarily mean they’re less talented, but Super Bowl hangovers, harder schedules, and better divisions are always likely culprits.

2) The NFC East beats the hell out of each other. Not counting the Redskins, who are on a prolonged streak of suckiness, here’s the records of the top three teams over the past five seasons:

2010: 10-6, 10-6, 6-10

2009: 11-5, 11-5, 8-8

2008: 12-4, 9-6-1, 9-7

2007: 13-3, 10-6, 9-7

2006: 10-6, 9-7, 8-8

And another fun little fact: Over the past five seasons no team has gone a perfect 6-0 within the division and 5-1 was reached only once, by the 2006 Eagles.

I could keep going, but suffice to say rarely does an NFC East squad truly separate itself from competition within its own division. So if you expect the Eagles to run rampant, you may want to reevaluate your reasoning. History tells us otherwise.

3) There will be sleepers. It may seem painfully obvious, but it’s worth repeating. It’s easy to look back at last year’s standings and fall in love with 2010’s great squads but realize that going back to 1996 at least five teams that made the playoffs one year were left behind the next. Expect the unexpected!

Here are teams that have lost five or more games than they did the previous season over the past five years:

2010: Cowboys (-5), Vikings (-6), Cardinals (-6), Bengals (-6)

2009: Titans (-5)

2008: Packers (-7), Seahawks (-6), Patriots (-5), Browns (-6), Jaguars (-6)

2007: Bears (-6), Jets (-6), Ravens (-8)

2006: Redskins (-5), Buccaneers (-7)

Keep those fun facts in mind as we delve into the coming season…

THE RISERS

These are teams I believe will show marked improvement from last year, and have a chance to do damage in the postseason. Risers can’t have made the playoffs last year and will have to win three more games than they did the previous season to qualify. Here they are, in no particular order, followed by my SUPER SLEEPER, which you will learn more about soon enough…

DETROIT LIONS (6-10)*



I’ve been trying incredibly hard to NOT buy into all the hype surrounding the Lions. Remember the Texans last year or the Falcons from the season before? Occasionally, the weight of expectations is simply too heavy. And the Lions for once actually have some hope, and hope in the sports world always equates to increased expectations.

It’s hard not to like Detroit, with the preseason Quarterback Matt Stafford has enjoyed and the promising beginning to the 2010 season that ended way prematurely due to injury. Stafford nearly led his Lions past the 5-2 Jets with 240 passing yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions before being taken out with a separated shoulder that landed him on the PUP list. That’s quite a performance against the seventh best pass defense of 2010. And in four preseason games this season Stafford has thrown for 395 yards, five touchdowns, and zero interceptions. It’s only the preseason, but all available signs point to a BIG 2011 for Stafford—you know, assuming he isn’t injured for the third straight season. And that’s the first big if.

The second one? The secondary. Thanks largely to Ndamukong Suh and Detroit’s vastly improved defensive line, they ranked 19th in pass defense. Because the Lions did virtually nothing to improve their secondary during the offseason, Detroit’s defensive backfield will likely continue to be a liability. Suh, Vanden-Bosh, and Fairley will blow through offensive lines all season but they’ll struggle against teams with solid lines and a quarterback who can quickly get rid of the ball and attack the secondary.

The Bottom Line: Assuming Matt Stafford isn’t the Greg Oden of football (minus dong shots), there’s no reason NOT to think he’ll finish the year amongst the top ten quarterbacks in the NFL. At the risk of sounding like John Gruden, this guy’s got all the tools. He’s a bad, bad man. But the secondary is a problem, and with the Packers likely taking the division Detroit will need to nab a wildcard spot. That means they’ll need to beat out teams from the NFC South (Saints and Falcons) and NFC East (Cowboys, Eagles, and Giants). It’s certainly not out of the question, but I think the Lions need another year…

DALLAS COWBOYS (6-10)*



Wade Phillips is gone. Breathe easy Cowboys fans, and remember that the always apathetic, sleepy, and slightly confused Phillips has gone to torment some other team from Texas on the sidelines. Once Jason Garrett started to call the real plays, the Cowboys averaged 29 points a game over their last eight games last season. And that was with John Kitna at the helm. Without Dez Bryant. With an overweight and ineffectual Felix Jones. Just check my fantasy teams and you’ll see what I think of Dallas’ offense now that it’s healthy. It’s gonna be good—crazy good.

But it’s going to have to be prolific because the Cowboys didn’t do much of anything to improve the 28th best pass defense in the NFL. The Boys’ were this close to landing Nnamdi and solidifying their defensive backfield with a true shutdown corner, but alas, he was the one who got away. And oh, how they need him. According to the Football Outsider’s cornerback charting stats Mike Jenkins and Terrence Newman—Dallas’ two starting corners—were amongst the worst in the league in 2010. Jenkins was fantastic in 2009 (19 pass deflections and five interceptions) but was visibly terrible last season and rumor has it that the Cowboys were close to cutting Newman before they lost the Nnamdi sweepstakes.

The bottom line: The whole “I’ll just score more points than you can keep up with” philosophy never really works. The most prolific offenses of the past decade, the 1999 Rams, 2001 Rams, 2007 Patriots were all complemented by some of the best defenses in the league with the first, eighth, and 17th ranked defenses respectively (the Pats had the 5th best pass defense in 2007). That means Mike Jenkins may be the key to the Cowboy’s Super Bowl hopes. In 2009, when Jenkins made the Pro Bowl, Dallas rode the 12th best defense along with a high-powered offense to a playoff berth. If he can play at a pro bowl level once again, Dallas’ fearsome pass rush should be enough to at least improve the defense to league average. Coupled with what I see as the best offense in the NFL, the Cowboys will return to prominence.

But damn, imagine if they got Nnamdi…

HOUSTON TEXANS (6-10)*

I know, I know, we go through this every year. Every season it seems like it’s their time. The Texans are so loaded we wait and wait for them to overtake the Colts. Two things seem to stand in their way: Peyton Manning and an inability to close the deal. Toughness has always seemed like a huge cliché in the NFL to me; meaningless jargon “football men” use to inspire their own team and taunt the opposition.



It’s hard to pinpoint exactly what Houston’s problem is. Their team seems to be cleverly constructed and at the most important position in football—quarterback—the Texans are set. The Colts are perennial contenders but they’ve left the door open ever so slightly these past two seasons. This year, it’s been blown wide open. During the offseason Houston pinpointed their most obvious weakness (pass defense) and signed Jonathan Joseph, one of the best young cornerbacks in football. They’re all in—no excuses. If the Texans can’t capitalize on the Manning-less Colts than Kubiak is gone and the team needs an overhaul.

That’s why I keep going back to this toughness thing. Houston has blue-chip level pieces at nearly every position. Andre Johnson, Matt Schaub, Arian Foster, Owen Daniels, Mario Williams; that’s a fantasy dream team. Watching the Texans lose to the Broncos, Chargers, Cowboys, Jaguars, and Titans—five teams with a combined record of 32-48—was truly pathetic. Even more so after all the “they’ve arrived” stories we were treated to after a 2-0 start and a convincing victory over the Colts. But predictably, they crashed hard and fast; so fast in fact that they were out of the playoff race by week 10. Good teams—dare I say tough teams—take care of business against lesser opposition. This year, the Texans need to put their money where their mouth is.

The bottom line: Bill Simmons wrote this in his 2010 season preview regarding the Colts:

“Don't be a hero. Let them tell us when they're done. Then, and only then, can you start picking against them.”

I couldn’t agree more, but the hard part is figuring out just when they’re done. Simmons says we should wait until they tell us; well, isn’t Peyton Manning’s ongoing neck-saga the latest and most damning omen yet that the Colts will miss the playoffs for the first time in 83 years (all numbers approximate)? More on the Colts later, but if they truly are on the down-turn like I believe that means someone in the AFC South has to capitalize. I doubt it’s the Jaguars, who didn’t use the offseason to dramatically improve and are working in a rookie quarterback around a declining veteran. The Titans are a semi-hip sleeper pick, but remember that Matt Hasselbeck is their starting quarterback. Also note that Hasselbeck hasn’t been good for four years. The only logical choice is the Texans. They’re loaded, they addressed their biggest weaknesses over the offseason, and they’ve got a quarterback in the prime of his career. The Gary Kubiak-Wade Phillips combo has the chance to be devastating in the worst way possible, but the Colts made the Super Bowl two years ago with a manikin for a coach, so there.

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS (9-7)*

As I’m sure you’re tired of reading by now, the Chargers finished last year as the number one ranked offense and defense. Even by the Football Outsiders more accurate advanced metrics the Chargers finished the season ranked fourth and seventh, respectively. As I’m sure you’ve also heard, San Diego had one of the worst special teams units in history, which included allowing four kick return touchdowns, four punts blocked (one deflected), and a laundry list of injured or ineffectual long-snappers. In short, they were not only historically terrible, but also un-lucky. Regardless of how San Diego’s revamped special teams unit performs expect a return to the mean. Allowing four return touchdowns and four blocked punts goes beyond skill. It’s like getting struck by lightning—twice.

As good as San Diego’s offense was last year, they were without wideout Vincent Jackson for 11 games, number two receiver Malcom Floyd for five, and Antonio Gates for six. There were games when Philip Rivers was without his three most dangerous pass catchers—yet he still managed to lead the league with over 4,700 passing yards. Simply put, using virtually every metric available the Chargers were a playoff caliber team, even with all the injuries on offense.

The bottom line:

Consider the following:

-Of the Charger’s seven losses last season five were be eight points or less (two were by field goals) and five were against teams that finished the year with losing records. They lost to the Cincinnati Bengal’s by 14 points and the Oakland Raider’s by 15.

-After losing to eventual division champion Kansas City 21-14 in a Monsoon week one, San Diego crushed them 31-0 in week 14, when the division was very much up for grabs.

-At least, AT LEAST two games were decided by special teams and it’s not even an argument. In week three the Seahawks won 27-20 on the back of two (yes, two) kicks returned for touchdowns. Then, in week five the Raiders won 35-27 after blocking two punts that led to a safety and a long touchdown drive.

-San Diego was swept by the Raiders. Heading into the season the Raiders were riding a 13 game losing streak to the Bolts.

Make San Diego’s special team’s unit average and they’re 11-5 (at least). Make Jackson, Floyd, and Gates (who was enjoying his best season to date before his injury) healthy and who knows what happens? Now factor in sophomore running back Ryan Mathew’s effective preseason and a possible resurgence of the running game and it’s hard not to get a hard-on for the Chargers—just like we do every year.

*Those are last year’s records

SUPER SLEEPER
It's that time you've all been waiting for, AREN'T YOU EXCITED!?!? Before I delve into who I like as my sleeper, remember that a sleeper has to be a team that people aren’t talking about. That means the Lions, Chargers, and Cowboys are out—even if they missed the playoffs last year and finished with losing records. A true sleeper team is one people don’t see coming—think 2008 Cardinals, 2010 Seahawks, or 2009 Jets.

For my 2011 season Super Sleeper I first looked hard at the Vikings. Adrian Peterson isn’t just good, he’s historically great. Hyperbole much, you say? Last season he became the fifth fastest player ever to reach 5,000 rushing yards and his average of 97 rushing yards per game is third behind Jim Brown and Barry Sanders. It’s a passing league as the saying goes, but anytime you’ve got a back’ on a historically good tear you deserve my wandering attention. Minnesota was weighed down by its poo-poo platter of quarterback play, so they traded for Donovan McNabb as a short-term answer. McNabb was only average last season, but he was a Redskin. And he didn’t have a back’ like Peterson (has he ever?), or a receiver the caliber of Percy Harvin.

But unfortunately they’re stuck in a division with last year’s champion, the rising Detroit Lions, and the NFC runners-up. They would have to grab a wild-card spot and I just don’t see them beating out anyone from the NFC East or NFC South to get it.

I thought about the Titans but then I remembered that Hasselbeck hasn’t played a full 16-game season since 2007, and since then he’s thrown more interceptions then touchdown passes. The Redskins are an interesting team, but again, their options at quarterback are light to put it nicely. Truthfully, I trust Rex Grossman and John Beck less than I would count on Rob Ryan to keep his mouth shut.

That leaves me with the Rams, Cardinals, and 49ers—the tattered mess that comprises the NFC West (I’m not even counting the Seahawks, not because they made the postseason last year, but because of Tarvaris Jackson). St. Louis is an exciting team, with the gallant Sam Bradford coming off a promising rookie campaign and the acquisition of a couple more offensive weapons. With Josh McDaniel’s in the fold (who has improved every offense he’s worked on) and the possibly very dangerous defensive pairing of defensive ends Chris Long and rookie Robert Quinn St. Louis has serious potential. But they’re young, inexperienced, and were unfortunate enough to land a difficult schedule. Their division might be the worst in the league, but amongst their other ten opponents they have to play the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Packers, Cowboys, Saints, and Steelers. That’s a murderer’s row of opponents including three consecutive weeks against Super Bowl caliber teams. With the first eight weeks of the season against the Eagles, Giants, Ravens, Redskins, Packers, Cowboys, Saints and Cardinals respectively, a 2-8 start or worse is very possible. San Francisco is always interesting but then remember Alex Smith. Got it? Good.



This leaves us with the Arizona Cardinals—my 2011 Super Sleeper pick. Let’s start off with the basics; they’re in the worst division in football. They have the easiest schedule in the NFL, as the combined winning percentage of their opponents is a paltry .441. That’s .16 percentage points worse than the next easiest schedule. Not only do they enjoy six games against their own division but they get to play the Panthers, Redskins, Vikings, Browns, and Bengals. Their only games against solid contenders are home against the Steelers off of the bye week, home against the Cowboys, and a road contest against the Eagles. A 3-0 start and a 4-0 finish are reasonable assumptions as they begin the year against the Panthers, Redskins, and Seahawks and finish it off against the 49er’s, Browns, Bengals, and Seahawks.

Furthermore, why couldn’t this team be half-decent with Kevin Kolb at the helm instead of Derek Anderson and that Max Hall guy? I have no reasonable explanation for Kolb’s struggles last year, but he’s had a solid preseason and by all accounts was “everything the Cardinals hoped for” in training camp. He’s got Larry Fitzgerald, an average running game, and what has been an above-average offensive line as recently as 2009—when Kurt Warner was quarterback.

And that right there is the crux of my argument. Arizona’s quarterback play was so incredibly bad last season that it skewed the entire team downward. According to the Football Outsider’s Arizona’s passing attack was the worst in the NFL last season. Dig into the stats a little bit, and they’re truly horrifying. Arizona’s quarterbacks combined (all four that started at various points) to throw for 3,264 yards, complete 50.8 percent of their passes, averaged 5.8 yards per attempt, and threw 10 touchdowns to 19 interceptions. Poor Max Hall managed only a 35.7 Quarterback rating through six games. Derek Anderson gave us one of the all-time great post-game press conferences. It was a massive cluster-f***. If Kevin Kolb can bring some stability (I think he can) and put up average numbers (let’s say 3,500 yards, 22 touchdowns and 14 interceptions) why couldn’t the Cardinals capitalize on their schedule and ride an 11-5 record to a quick out in the postseason?

Join me tomorrow for my Decliners, playoff predictions, and who I like for the Super Bowl. Hopefully I can Peter King it, but chances are my Super Bowl pick will be horribly, horribly wrong. Until next time…

A Very Late Recap Of My Hall Of Fame Adventure

How I came to sit in the second row of seats in Fawcett Stadium, surrounded by the unruly mob that was Deion Sander’s family, furiously typing on my Blackberry to confirm my suspicion that the man walking past was in fact the rapper Ice-Cube (why does he always look so angry?), mere feet from the legendary Snoop-Dog, was the least interesting part of my foray to Canton, Ohio.


I was invited by my Uncle Steve Sabol to attend the Hall of Fame enshrinement weekend and all that entails to see his father, Ed Sabol, receive his gold jacket. The experience was fascinating, terrifying, incredible, and a little bit awkward all at the same time. Let me explain…

Everyone likes to feel important, and people spend their entire lives striving to become something that is meaningful. If I sound like your psychology professor, I apologize, but it’s true. When we don’t feel important, we feel threatened, secluded, and futile. It might be hard to notice or easy to deny, but it’s their; lurking somewhere. Trust me. The feeling was overwhelming at times over the weekend as I dined with industry giants such as Sal Paolantonio, Andrea Kramer, and Ray Didinger. Part of me was inspired—let’s says 45 percent—by breathing, eating, and listening to exactly the type of men and women I aspire to become. But the other 55 percent was consumed by, well, sheer terror.

How can you feel like you belong—or are even the least bit important—when the person to your left and right makes more money in a day than you in a year? That feeling, intermixed with admiration, was just part of the experience. At first it was disturbing, but then I realized it was natural and—dare I say—healthy. There isn’t anything wrong with a little bit of humble pie.

Some highlights of the trip…

-Watching Deion Sanders’ enormous family attempt to fit entirely in the first row of seating in Fawcett Stadium (where the enshrinement ceremony was held) and nearly incite violence. Also of note: All the Sanders’ offspring wore jerseys from the different teams Sander’s played for throughout his career. I found this fascinating.

-Ed Sabol’s induction speech. Short (less than three minutes), sweet, and to the point—just the way it should be. On the other hand, the other six enshrinee’s talked for roughly three hours. Note to future inductees: pretend you’re 94 years-old and plan your speech accordingly.

-Juking by Deion Sanders. I’m 100 percent sure he had no idea I did this, but I spun right around Sanders to get past a crowd of people. It doesn’t matter that he didn’t know, just that I can say I did it.

-When I say that the people of Canton Ohio LIVE for this weekend, I mean it. Some 150,000 folks lined the Saturday morning parade route and the majority of folks who “work” for the Hall of Fame over the weekend are in fact volunteers. Considering the amount we utilized the driver service, God bless them.

-Entourages. Holy crap, entourages. If you’re rich and famous, are you required to travel with an entourage?

Anyway, there it is. Unfortunately, I didn’t take any pictures. So yeah, you only get 500 words about the weekend. Congratulations to all the inductees, and if you’re ever in Canton, try the chocolate. It’s delicious.