Week 12 Picks

Houston Texans -5.5 @ Jacksonville Jaguars

If you’ve seen Blaine Gabbert play and you’ve seen Houston’s defense, you know why this pick is so easy. Even if it is Matt Leinart at the helm for the Texans…

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets -2.5

The human brain is an amazing thing, it really is. Sometime over the past seven weeks I thought the Bills were legit because of their offense, thought they were a possible wildcard because of their offense, than now think they will miss the final wildcard spot because of their offense and horrid defense. It was fun while the Bills were gifted piles of tipped ball interceptions, but now that it’s over, we’ve seen what their defense really looks like.

Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals -6

Note to Brown’s management: rookie hazing that borders on mental abuse probably isn’t the most effective way to cultivate your starting quarterback. 

Minnesota Vikings @ Atlanta Falcons -9

In my little Thanksgiving piece I forgot to mention one other thing I’m thankful for: the Atlanta Falcons. Why is that? Because the Falcons are one of the few teams in which we know exactly what we are getting. They’ve got a solid ground game; they’re a decent ball control offense, play solid defense (eighth in the league per DVOA), and boast a relatively efficient passing game. They’re good but not great at anything; a blessing considering the state of the league at this point.

Arizona Cardinals @ St. Louis Rams -1

Reports indicate Kevin Kolb will make the start today. I ask you this: is that much of an upgrade from John Skelton? That I’m even asking this question ought to indicate the silliness of Kevin Kolb’s sixty million dollar contract. Oh, and my super sleeper pick…

Carolina Panthers -3 @ Indianapolis Colts

If this game isn’t a 35-32 affair or something close, it really demonstrates Curtis Painter's ineptitude because this is a pairing of the league’s worst two defenses per the Football Outsiders.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 @ Tennessee Titans

Hasselbeck hurt his elbow last week, but not to the point where he will be unable to start against the Bucs. It’s a slippery slope and I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a sign of things to come. It’s Matt Hasselbeck we’re talking about, after all.

Chicago Bears -5 @ Oakland Raiders

Oakland’s got a bottom five run defense, perfect for Matt Forte to go to work. Oh, and you just can’t trust Carson Palmer against one of the better defenses in the league.

Washington Redskins @ Seattle Seahawks -2.5

Oof, not exactly America’s Game of the Week. The Seahawks are a different team at home and the Skins’ always find a way to shoot themselves in the foot. Also, I dreamt I was best friends with Brian Orakpo in a past life last night. Weird, right?

Denver Broncos +8 @ San Diego Chargers

Will something bad happen if I continue picking against Tebow and friends? I feel like my Day of Reckoning will be upon me if I don’t right the ship…and soon.

New England Patriots -3 @ Philadelphia Eagles

I had a great joke lined up here about how the Patriots should just go after NBA players to play in their secondary because it would be a hell of a lot better than what they have currently, but then the NBA lockout had to go and actually end. F@#$ the NBA lockout.

Pittsburgh Steelers -11 @ Kansas City Chiefs

Tyler Palko threw three interceptions against one of the league’s worst pass defenses Monday Night. Due to the Transitive Property Palko should throw 12 against the Steelers. Wait, is that right? I was never very good at Math…

New York Giants +7 @ New Orleans Saints

The Giants are the opposite of the Saints—we have absolutely no freaking clue what we’re getting. Will it be the clutch offense and unstoppable pass rush that beat the Patriots, Bills, and Dolphins? Or will it be the mistake prone offense and pass rush anemic defense that lost to the Eagles, 49ers, and Seahawks? If it sounds like I’m talking about two teams, I kind of think I am. I’m thoroughly convinced there are actually three Manning brothers: Peyton, Eli, and Eli’s evil twin. Both Eli’s play for the Giants and God decides who he wants to see every Sunday. It’s the only logical explanation. Based on last week’s horrendous offensive performance against the Eagles I would expect the Giants to drop an easy 40 points on the Saints and for the defense to sack Brees seven times.

Upset of the Week: Denver Broncos OVER San Diego Chargers

Pounding of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Kansas City Chiefs

Lock of the Week: New York Giants OVER New Orleans Saints

Last Week: 7-6

Overall: 80-75-8

Basketball? BASKETBALL? BASKETBALL!!!

Five months. Five months of torture. Five months spent posturing, sniping, manipulating, and leading the basketball watching public on a roller coaster of deception.

On two separate occasions we were all but assured a deal was in place, a few remaining issues had to be hammered out, and basketball would be back. Both those times the talks fell through and we were left with a bitter, bitter taste in our mouths. Actually, that's sugar coating it; I felt like David Stern was hammering a nine inch nail through my sternum. Professional basketball is important to me, and without it there is a void within me that can't be filled by college basketball or any other sport.

And now? It's back...

To catch you up on what's going on I've gathered some links from folks on the front lines reporting the new deal. It's a busy time for me right now, but look for some in-depth NBA writing in the coming weeks. After the "Year of Lockouts" I'm looking forward to writing about actual sports and all that entails. I'm a sports writer, not a lawyer.

Here's the folks over at Pro Basketball Talk with some great stuff on how and why the deal was done now...
http://probasketballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/11/26/why-a-deal-now-pressure-from-the-calendar-mostly/

A useful compilation of what we know about the new deal by Royce Young over at CBS Sports' Basketball Blog, Eye on Basketball...
http://www.cbssports.com/mcc/blogs/entry/22748484/33505522

Ken Berger, perhaps the best reporter covering the lockout, writes about the settlement here...
http://www.cbssports.com/nba/story/16244293/nba-saves-season-to-have-66game-schedule

Adrian Wojnarowski with another good summation of what took place Friday Night while most of us were still recovering from a Thanksgiving eating frenzy...
http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=aw-wojnarowski_nba_lockout_ends-112611

SOME UPDATES...

Salary Cap Maestro Larry Coon analyzing what we know about the new deal...
http://espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/lockout-111126/analyzing-new-nba-labor-agreement

The Heat benefit from the new labor deal perhaps more than anyone. Read it here...
http://espn.go.com/nba/truehoop/miamiheat/story/_/id/7283642/nba-owners-concessions-benefit-miami-heat-mike-miller

Henry Abbott on the winners and losers of the new deal...
http://espn.go.com/blog/truehoop/post/_/id/32302/the-winners-and-losers-of-a-new-cba

Thanksgiving Day Picks

Let’s see if I can run the table…how cool would that be?



Green Bay Packers @ Detroit Lions +9

Lions at home, playing the single biggest game of the season, with the chance to knock off their division rival drawing closer by the week to perfection? Could this game get any better? Could this be any bigger for Detroit? I don’t think it’s unreasonable to say this is the biggest game the Lions have played in at least two decades. A victory would reaffirm the Lion’s standing as a Super Bowl contender while a loss would indicate they still have a ways to go. The 07’ Patriots taught us that undefeated teams generally start to slow down right round this time, and walking into a buzzsaw in Detroit seems way to perfect.

Miami Dolphins @ Dallas Cowboys -2.5

Don’t be too alarmed that Dallas needed a missed kick in overtime to beat the Redskins…their contests have always been close. Okay, be worried, Matt Moore is coming to town and he shows no mercy. But it’s right around this time the Cowboys make their push for the postseason, and at 6-4 tied with the Giants at the top of the division, it’s now or never.

San Francisco 49ers +7 @ Baltimore Ravens

I don’t trust Alex Smith against Ed Reed and that defense. It has been a great run (and it’s not over) but Smith can’t just be a “game manager” to topple the league’s top defense. Flacco isn’t much better, but at least he’s at home, where he has been his best all season.

That's the case for the Ravens. All season long I've been talking myself out of teams I like into teams I don't like because that's what the conventional wisdom says to do. Not this time! I hate the Ravens, and I think the 49ers are really good, so there...49ers it is.

Six reasons I love Thanksgiving…

1. Smoking the Turkey…


2. Telling everyone I need to take a dump to get out of dish washing duty.


3. Food comas


4. Family


5. Telling everyone watching football is “my job” because I write about it for little monetary gain.


6. Stuffing. I can eat it with anything. My favorite thing is a giant spoonful of turkey, mashed potatoes, and stuffing. My mouth is watering just thinking abou it…

Happy Thanksgiving!

The Morning After—Week 11

1. Do the Bills regret spending $59 million on Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Fitzpatrick’s numbers over Buffalo’s three-game losing streak, in which the Bills were outscored 106 to 26: 546 passing yards, 2 touchdown passes and 7 interceptions, and a ghastly 5.4 yards per attempt. If that doesn’t indicate Fitzpatrick’s regression over the latter half of the season, than I don’t know what does. Fitzpatrick’s steadfast refusal to throw the ball down the field has to be concerning for Bills fans, but it’s not like we couldn’t see it coming. He’s never averaged more than 6.9 yards per attempt once during his career.

So, do the Bills regret signing Fitzpatrick to franchise-player type money? In a figurative sense, yes, but monetarily wise? Probably not. According to Pro Football Talk, the Bills could cut or trade Fitzpatrick before the seventh day of the 2012 league year and be exempt from nearly $49 million of it. You can read the details HERE, but suffice to say it’s an extremely team-friendly deal. Imagine this type of deal happening in the NBA…

Some folks (such as NFL.com’s Michael Lombardi) point to Fitzpatrick’s recent struggles as a product of poor pass protection, but I don’t but it. The Football Outsiders have the Bills ranked as the best protecting line in football, and through week 11, Fitzpatrick has been sacked only 11 times—best in the league among Quarterbacks who have started every game. Sacks aren’t the end all-be all of pass rush indicators, but I’ve watched the Bills on numerous occasions, and he’s had time. Please, bring back the FITZMAGIC.

2. Can the Bears succeed without Jay Cutler?



Are you ready for various sports columnists to make the half-hearted case for Jay Cutler as league MVP? It’s coming, believe me. Aaron Rodgers will inevitably win the MVP award as he’s carried the Packers to a perfect record despite one of the league’s worst defenses, but Cutler has been the life force of a very mediocre offense. Matt Forte is a fantastic player, but Chicago’s offense is nothing without Cutler’s incredible arm, mobility, and ability to make plays on the run—which he is forced do to quite often.

Chicago’s offense line has certainly improved from earlier in the season, or last season, where Cutler was sacked a league high 52 times, but Cutler’s skill set is a large part of that improvement. I don’t know if there is anyone with a stronger arm in the league. Cam Newton, Matthew Stafford, and Mike Vick may have an argument, but NO ONE can sling the ball down the field with such power and accuracy off balance. Cutler has fast become my favorite quarterback in the league to watch. Talking Heads and Draftnicks are always drawling on about “the velocity” a Quarterback can put on the ball; sometimes, if you look closely, you can actually see the flames emanating from Cutler’s balls.

I’ve seen Caleb Hanie play once, in last season’s NFC championship game. As the Football Outsiders guys write HERE, he played well considering he was up against the league’s best pass defense. Furthermore, the Bears enjoy a weak slate of pass defenses the rest of the way, and Hanie has one of the best safety valves in the league in Matt Forte. But Cutler is the sole reason Chicago’s offensive line has looked semi-competent, and assuming Hanie doesn’t have the same physical abilities as Cutler (a reasonable assumption—few do), he’ll be under constant pressure. Regardless of what happens we're about to learn the real value of one of the most talented Quarterbacks in football.

3. Kevin Smith is the absurdity of this NFL season in a nutshell…

Let’s approach this from a fantasy perspective: in 2009 Kevin Smith was, on average, selected in the third round, 34th overall according to the Fantasy Football Draft Calculator. But he tore his ACL later in 2009, struggled to fully recover in 2010, and frankly never really looked like the player he was at Central Florida. In his last year of college football, Smith ran for over 2,500 yards and 29 touchdowns—Superstar numbers.

Now consider the day he had on Sunday: 16 carries for 140 yards, 2 rushing touchdowns, 4 catches for 61 yards and a receiving touchdown. Smith, who hasn’t looked like a remotely competent professional football player in two years, had the best rushing performance of the day Sunday, and one of the best of 2011. It makes one throw their hands in the air, exclaim “por que?!” to whatever higher being they worship, and wonder at the absurdity of the NFL. It’s good to have you back Kevin Smith, but please, don’t kill my fantasy football team next time, okay?

4. For the love of God, the 2011 Packers aren’t as good—or better—than the 07’ Patriots…

I’ve wrote that Aaron Rodgers is having the best season a quarterback ever has in past columns—even better than Tom Brady’s legendary 2007 performance. But really, this Packers team is NOT the 07’ Patriots.

Let’s start with their respective running games. The 2011 Packers are the 7th most efficient running team according to the Football Outsiders and 21st overall in terms of total yards. They make the most of their opportunities, but aren’t exactly killing it on the ground. Pretty much what you would expect from a pass-first offense with a Quarterback like Aaron Rodgers. The 2007 Patriots were the 2nd most efficient running team per the Football Outsiders and 13th overall in terms of total yards. A little better than the Packers but pretty much the same story.

So what about the defenses? The Packers possess the league’s 27th ranked defense, below the much maligned Patriots, Bills, and Broncos defensive squads. They’ve given up 390 yards per game, 21 points per game, and 3,918 total yards—30th in the league. The only reason they’re not worse is because they’ve got a +12 turnover differential and are second in the league in takeaways. The 2007 Patriots had the league’s 12th ranked defense. They allowed 288 yards per game, 17 points per game, and 4,613 total yards—third in the league. They were one of the best pass defenses in the NFL that year if you can believe it.

Furthermore, through the first ten weeks of the season Green Bay has, per DVOA, faced on average the 22nd ranked defense while in the same time period New England faced on average the 16th ranked defense. And through those first ten weeks, the 07’ Patriot’s offense was more prolific, scoring a staggering 41 pointer per game. The Packers have managed “only” 35 points per game.

So what can we take away here? The Packers boast an incredible offense, led by a Quarterback having an all-time season carrying a mediocre defense that couldn’t stop a nose bleed. The 07’ Patriots boasted a competent defense, one of the best passing defenses in the league, and statistically speaking, the best offensive attack ever. And that offense, ohhh that offense. I’ve never seen a team blitz the league with such ferocity like those 07’ Pats, and I’ve never been so damn sure that a team couldn’t lose. I’ve never seen a team operate with such precision, such surety, such explosiveness as those 18-1 Pats, and I’m just not getting that feeling from the Packers.

But hey, maybe I’m just a homer…

5. Andy Dalton is…spectacular.



I wrote about how excited Bengals fans should be about Andy Dalton and A.J Green after week five. Incredibly, they’re even better now. I thought Andy Dalton had his best game Sunday against the Ravens despite throwing three interceptions in a losing effort. It looks to me like all the criticism Dalton took about his arm strength before the draft was completely unfounded…the man can sling it. Some of the deep balls he threw against the Ravens were jaw-dropping—Dalton’s accuracy is outstanding. Consider Dalton’s huge day against the Ravens, than remember he was playing the best defense in the NFL without his top receiver, rookie wideout A.J Green. In the 2012 draft the Bengals have their own first round pick plus one from the Raiders. Two first round picks after the year they drafted their franchise quarterback and wide receiver? The Bengals are primed for the best two years of drafting in league history.

Week 11 Picks

Yes, that's Tyler Palko, in all his face grabbing glory.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Green Bay Packers -13

Tampa Bay’s offense continues to slip into oblivion. Surprisingly, their defense is even worse—30th in the league per DVOA. Pairing a painfully slow offense with a painfully inept defense probably isn’t the formula to beating the Packers.

Carolina Panthers @ Detroit Lions -4.5

Anyone can drop 30+ on Carolina’s defense. No, seriously, only four teams haven’t. Broken finger and all, Matthew Stafford can still launch a few bombs to Calvin Johnson…who cares if they don’t have a running game this week?

Jacksonville Jaguars +7 @ Cleveland Browns

I think the Jaguars are better, but who the hell knows what will happen when two stinkers play each other? This has 9-6 written all over it. Speaking of 9-6, couldn’t LSU beat the Browns on a neutral field 9 out of 10 times?

Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings +3

The AFC West is this year’s version of the 2010 NFC West…meaning pick against them when they venture outside of the division, and when they’re playing each other, for the love of God, look away.

Buffalo Bills +8 @ Miami Dolphins

Buffalo is falling and the fish are rising, but can we PLEASE just remember two very important things? Tony Sparano is still coaching, and Matt Moore is still the Quarterback. Let’s all not jump off the Buffalo bandwagon so quickly, okay? Don't you still believe in FITZMAGIC?

Dallas Cowboys -9 @ Washington Redskins

I live in Virginia; hence the local broadcast always features the Redskins. Every sports bar always features the Redskins. Every Dick’s Sporting Goods sells nothing but Redskins apparel. Why do I live in Virginia again?

Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens -5

I wanted to pick the Bengals, I really, really did. If you read this blog with any regularity (which, admittedly, has been sparse as of late) you know I hate the Ravens. But rookie wideout A.J Green is a likely scratch and cornerback Leon Hall is done for the season. Can the Bengals beat a 6-3 team—no matter how over-valued I think they are—without two of their best players? I don’t think so, and that's quite disheartening.

Arizona Cardinals @ San Francisco 49ers -7

There are some things in life that are simply impossible to comprehend, like John Skelton looking better than Arizona’s 60 million dollar man—Kevin Kolb—in his first two starts of the season. Can he continue the magic in his third straight start? Wait, you trust him on the road against arguably the best defense in football? Yeah, I thought so.

Seattle Seahawks @ St. Louis Rams -2

Will anyone watch this game? Why should I be forced to pick the outcome, and, if I’m wrong, suffer accordingly? Why is life so unfair?

Tennessee Titans @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5

Mike Smith’s decision to go for it on 4th and 1 on his own 30 in overtime was an inexcusably poor move (and I'm somewhat of a connoisseaur of irrantionally ballsy moves), but let’s not lose sight of the fact that the Falcons are probably the league’s best boring team. And yes, that’s kind of a compliment. They’ve lost by only an average of 8.75 points, and in a loss to Green Bay; they held them to their second lowest point total of the year. I think they’ll take care of business and stay alive in the NFC South.

San Diego Chargers @ Chicago Bears -6

I love the Bears. I love that we’re finally appreciating Jay Cutler’s talent now that he’s got some time to actually throw the ball. It’s clear that Cutler is one of the five most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL, right? In other news, it’s clear that the Chargers aren’t anything close to contenders, and as physically intimidating as their pass catchers are, they can’t stay on the field.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants -5

Michael Vick and Jeremy Maclin have both been ruled OUT for Sunday Night’s game. This is a slam dunk, right? That’s Philly’s star quarterback and most reliable wide receiver—both out. Oh, and Vince Young is getting the start. Gulp.

Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots -14

Who is Tyler Palko? Well, he’s going to be starting at Quarterback for the Chiefs against one of the five best teams in the league.

From the ever-reliable Wikipedia:

“Tyler Palko (born August 9, 1983 in Imperial, Pennsylvania) is an American football quarterback for the Kansas City Chiefs of the National Football League. He was signed by the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted free agent in 2007. He played college football for the University of Pittsburgh.

Palko was the starting quarterback at Pittsburgh from 2004 to 2006. He was not selected in the 2007 NFL Draft, but was signed by the New Orleans Saints as an undrafted free agent. After spending the 2007 season on the Saints practice squad and occasionally the active roster, Palko did not play football in 2008. He joined the Arizona Cardinals on a future contract in December 2008 before being waived in September 2009. Palko then joined the Montreal Alouettes of the Canadian Football League before signing with the Pittsburgh Steelers in November 2009. He signed a future contract with the Kansas City Chiefs in 2010 but spent most of the 2010 season on the practice squad before being elevated to the active roster near the end of the season. He entered the 2011 season as the back-up to Matt Cassel. Due to a hand injury that Cassel suffered in week 10, Palko will start his first game in the NFL on November 21, 2011.”

Upset of the Week: Minnesota Vikings OVER Oakland Raiders

Lock of the Week: New York Giants OVER Philadelphia Eagles

Pounding of the Week: New England Patriots OVER Kansas City Chiefs

Last Week: 8-8

Overall: 73-69-8

Week 10 Picks

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles -10

I don’t really need to go into detail here, do I? You’re comfortable with Philadelphia’s pass rush vs. Arizona’s offensive line? You’re okay with Arizona’s secondary (According to the Football Outsiders, the league’s 29th ranked pass defense) vs. Philly’s speedy wideouts? Speaking of Arizona’s secondary, I noticed that rookie cornerback Patrick Peterson was on Michael Lombardi’s midseason All-Pro team. Yes, he’s an incredible punt returner, but have you seen him in coverage?

Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers -2

Let’s get something straight: the Titans aren’t good. Chris Johnson doesn’t even deserve to be a starting halfback at this point, and without Kenny Britt, Tennessee’s passing attack has fallen off a cliff…and so has their defense. Whereas it was a top five defense during the first half of the season, it has now plummeted to 21st in the league.

Houston Texans -5 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Let’s get something else straight: The Bucs aren’t as bad as the Titans, but they aren’t great either. Quarterback Josh Freeman’s touchdown to interception ratio plummeted from 25-6 last season to 8-10 this season. Wide Receiver Mike Williams—a borderline Pro Bowl candidate last year—is averaging below ten yards a catch and has snagged only one touchdown pass. That sums up Tampa Bay’s current offensive struggles quite succinctly.

Washington Redskins @ Miami Dolphins -1

I will NEVER understand what possessed Matt Moore to throw for 244 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions last Sunday against the Chiefs. Here’s what I DO understand: John Beck is horrendous. So is Rex Grossman. We deal in absolutes here, and as far as we know, the Dolphins have the edge in the Quarterback battle. Alright, that’s all I’ve got. I suggest you avoid this game…

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts +10

Can you F’ing believe the Colts are eight losses away from drafting the greatest pro prospect since John Elway? This pick stems from the simple belief that karma won’t allow the Colts to ‘earn’ the number one pick, just like karma decided to make the Raiders semi-competent the year the Patriots owned their first round pick. Let’s go Curtis Painter!

Denver Broncos @ Kansas City Chiefs -4

The Chiefs were just blown out by the previously hapless Dolphins…that means they’re storming back with a dominating win to restore confidence only to lose again the following week, right?

Buffalo Bills +9 @ Dallas Cowboys

Here’s the thing about Buffalo’s loss last week to the Jets: it wasn’t that the Bills looked so bad, more so that the Jet’s defense looked so good. Thankfully for the Bills, Dallas’ defense has seen a drastic drop-off the past couple of weeks. Especially against the run game, where the Cowboys were once ranked in the top five but now reside at 23rd overall. Have at it, Fred Jackson.

New Orleans Saints @ Atlanta Falcons -2.5

Are we sure the Saints are good? According to the Football Outsider’s DVOA metric, the Saints defense is only a smidge better than the Patriots—widely regarded as one of the worst units in the NFL. They’re especially weak against the run, and the Falcons have one of the better running backs in the league. Quietly, Atlanta’s defense has had a solid season…despite the lack of a consistent pass rush.

St. Louis Rams +7 @ Cleveland Browns

I picked the Rams last week because I liked what I saw from a dominating win over the Saints. Predictably, they fell flat on their face. BUT, keep in mind that if it wasn’t for a botched field goal, they would have won. They’re better than the Browns, they just are.

Pittsburgh Steelers -5 @ Cincinnati Bengals

Something else we need to get straight: The Bengals are good, not great. You realize the teams they’ve beaten are a combined 16-32, right? This is a pretty obvious back-down-to-Earth game for the Bengals. Now that I’ve said that I’m looking forward to a 23-20 Cincinnati win. Just call me Nostradamus.

Baltimore Ravens -6 @ Seattle Seahawks

I suppose this is a possible let down game after narrowly escaping with a win over the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. But what the hell, it’s the Seahawks, the league’s 26th ranked offense up against the league’s best defense. That matchup is too one-sided to argue with.

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers -3

East to West coast, possible let-down game for the Giants, a bad matchup for their defense, and what will be an invisible running game all add up to a Giants loss. If that sounds ridiculously arbitrary, it is. If there’s one thing I’ve learned from picking games the past two years, it’s that the smarter you try to become the worse your picks turn out. Don’t ask me why, the NFL is crazy yo.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears -4.5

I think the Bears might be a good team. For all the hate we toss Jay Cutler’s way he’s right up there with Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Michael Vick as one of the most physically gifted quarterbacks in the NFL. He really is good enough to carry Chicago’s offense now that the Bears have, you know, decided to protect him. As a famous philosopher once said, he’s pretty good when he’s on his two feet.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets -2.5

The Jets are flat-out better this season. Their secondary is good enough to shut down New England’s cadre of pass catchers, and Rex Ryan has always been able to get pressure on Brady with exotic blitz packages. Oh, and New England’s defense has a habit of making even the most mediocre quarterbacks look really, really good. Say hello to the first three game losing streak in a long, long, long time Patriots Nation…

Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers -9

The Patriots fan in me refuses to believe that the Packers will go 16-0 (that’s my record, dammit!), but tomorrow night ain’t gonna be their first loss. In other news, let’s stop with the ‘Packers might be the greatest team in history’ bullshit that will surely crescendo to a fever pitch if the Pack manage to reach 10-0. You’ll be hearing a lot more from me if that happens…

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts OVER Jacksonville Jaguars

Lock of the Week: New York Jets OVER New England Patriots

Pounding of the Week: Philadelphia Eagles OVER Arizona Cardinals

Last Week: 6-7-1

Overall: 65-61-8

The Morning After—Week 9

1. Calm down there, Mr. Rodgers, you’re making me wistful…



He’s been nothing short of incredible. Just from watching him do his thing, it appears that quarterback Aaron Rodgers is having a season unlike any other in history. Do the numbers back this up?

Brady’s numbers at the midpoint of his legendary 2007 season:
2,431 yards, 30 touchdowns to 2 interceptions, 74 percent of passes completed, 9.1 yards per attempt.

And here are Rodgers numbers through eight games:
2,619 yards, 24 touchdowns to 3 interceptions, 72.5 percent of passes completed, 9.9 yards per attempt.

Rodgers has thrown six less touchdowns, one more interception, and is just short of Brady’s completion percentage, but he has thrown for more yards, and is flirting with double digit yards per attempt…which hasn’t been done since the fifties. The Football Outsiders go into some great depth HERE on Rodger’s season, but suffice to say if he continues on this pace, he’ll finish with the greatest season of quarterbacking in history, and it’s not even as close as you’d think.

Now, enough with numbers…they’re boring. What about watching him? Has there ever been a quarterback able to throw as accurately and as powerfully as Rodgers can on the run? Take THIS throw against the Chargers for example, where he rolls out of the pocket, immediately feels the pressure, and launches a 64 yard bomb to Jordy Nelson for the game winning touchdown. That was on the run, three yards from the sideline, half a second away from being smashed into the turf by Chargers linebacker Travis LaBoy. I couldn't do that with a tennis ball.

2. The All-second half team…

It happens every season: a team gets hot in the second half after a poor start and makes it into the playoffs completely unexpectedly. Last year it was the Packers, and before them, the Chargers. Who will it be this year? A relatively pointless endeavor, as it’s almost impossible to predict, but what the hell, I’ll give it a shot. The candidates…

-San Diego Chargers: The Charger’s defense is putrid; let’s just get that out of the way. It sucks; it isn’t the unit that finished last year ranked seventh in the Football Outsider’s defensive efficiency rankings. As many others have said, it’s pretty clear this Chargers team just isn’t as good as last year’s squad that probably should have made the playoffs if it weren't for a horrid special teams unit.

-Dallas Cowboys: The Cowboys were gifted a fairly pedestrian schedule over the remaining half of the season. They get to play the Dolphins, Cardinals, Redskins, and the frisky Bills. Plus, they’ve still got both games against the division-leading Giants, one of which is on the last week of the season, possibly to decide the NFC East. They’re a good team that can’t seem to put it all together with any kind of consistency. But I don’t care, I’m enthralled by their talent, and with much of the public discourse directed at other things besides Tony Romo’s deficiencies, the Cowboys could be primed for a run while not under the spotlight. With Romo and the Cowboys, that’s always a good thing.

-Philadelphia Eagles: They’re pretty damn good by most statistical measures, but as I wrote above, their margin of error is slim to none. They’d need to go at least 7-1 the rest of the way, with games against the Patriots, Cowboys, Jets, and Giants left on the schedule. That’s tough…probably too tough.

-Tampa Bay Buccaneers: For whatever reason, the Bucs can’t seem to get there passing game together. After a brilliant 2010 season, quarterback Josh Freeman has thrown only eight touchdowns to 10 interceptions, is averaging only 6.5 yards per attempt, and has the Tampa Bay offense scoring just north of 18 points per game—24th in the league. You can’t win without offense, and no team in last season’s playoff field averaged less than 20 points a game during the regular season.

So there you go, I like the Cowboys to be the second half’s “Surprise team”. Am I looking forward to Tony Romo trade rumors and Jerry Jones canning Jason Garrett after a 2-6 finish? You bet!

3. Why we should absolutely write the Eagles off, and why we should absolutely not write the Eagles off…



Let’s take a quick look at the NFC playoff picture for the sake of argument:

NFC North: At 8-0, with Aaron Rodgers playing out of his mind, the Packers are winning this division. You can safely jot that down with permanent marker. The Lions are 6-2, and a prime candidate for the first wildcard spot. The Bears, at 5-3, looked strong last night. To everyone’s chagrin, they’re also a contender.

NFC South: In all likelihood, the Saints and Falcons will battle it out for the division, and the loser could play a role in the wildcard race. Both could finish with at least 10 wins, especially considering Atlanta’s relatively easy schedule going forward.

NFC West: The 49ers are 7-1, will win the division easily, and will battle it out all season with the Packers for the NFC’s number one seed.

NFC East: The Giants are 6-2, have a two game lead on the division, and are coming off three straight solid victories. The Cowboys—at 4-4 and super talented—could make a run.

That’s eight teams all with varying degrees of playoff chances, and then we have the Eagles. Oh, the Eagles. Based on the field I just listed, Philadelphia needs to go 7-1 the rest of the way. Anything less and they’ve got no chance. At 3-5 there room for error is nonexistent.

So why shouldn’t we write them off? The Giants have been known to blow big division leads. Last season, the Giants also started 6-2, but went 4-4 the rest of the way and missed the playoffs by a smidge. The season before that the Giants started off 5-0, then finished 3-8, missing the postseason. That’s two straight seasons of fast starts and poor finishes…give me one good reason that’s not in play for a third straight season?

4. Examining the Patriots loss and what it means for the rest of the season…

I wrote about the Patriots HERE a few days before they lost to the New York Giants. For those who haven’t read it, here’s the Cliffnotes version: The Patriots have a lot of problems that probably can’t be corrected this season. As fulfilling as it is to see my writing validated, it was miserable watching all my criticisms unfold on the football field. The offensive line couldn’t protect Brady (especially up the middle, where starting center Dan Koppen was lost for the season in week one), big plays down the field were at a premium, and the defense couldn’t make stops when it mattered. That’s about it. Unless Chad Ochocinco is imbued with the spirit of Randy Moss circa 2007 and the Ravens inexplicably ship Ed Reed to the Patriots for Kyle Arrington, New England’s prospects look bleak. That suction sound? That was the toilet as I attempted to flush my head down the toilet…

5. You’re also not gonna’ believe this, but the Jets are peaking after a rough start…



Do you remember when the Jets were beaten by the Baltimore Ravens by 17 points and Mark Sanchez completed only 11 passes out of 35 attempts? Do you remember how the Jet’s offense managed only seven first downs and 150 total yards of offense? You remember that offensive implosion, the nine point loss to the rival Patriots next week, and a 2-3 record heading into week six? That feels like a very long time ago…thus, is the National Football League.

We’ve been conditioned to believe in offense over defense, that it’s a passing league, and that quarterbacks are the face of the NFL. By and large, it’s all true. But for the third year in a row, the Jets are breaking the rules. According to the Football Outsiders, New York ranks first in overall DVOA, above the 8-0 Packers. I’ll leave it to the FO guys to explain exactly why that is, but suffice to say their offense isn’t as bad as you would think—discounting that pathetic performance against the Baltimore Ravens, of course.

And then there’s Mark Sanchez—the much-maligned GQ model-by-offseason. No one is talking about it, but just like Sanchez improved from his rookie campaign to his sophomore season, he has made another incremental jump. For a full season his stats prorate to 3,550 passing yards, 26 touchdowns, and 14 interceptions. Nothing spectacular, but a better Sanchez means a better Jets team. Considering they’ve made the AFC championship the past two seasons, could this be their year? *Barf*

Week 9 Picks

Miami Dolphins @ Kansas City Chiefs -2.5

Has a team ever been outscored 89-10 its first two games, then gone on a 4-1 run? Suddenly, the Chiefs are right in thick of the playoff hunt. The Dolphins are not, and despite a competitive two game streak, no team likes to play the Chiefs on the road. You heard the crowd in Monday night’s contest against the Chargers, right?

Atlanta Falcons -7 @ Indianapolis Colts

Quietly, despite the lack of a pass rush, and inconsistent play from rookie wide receiver Julio Jones, the Falcons find themselves ranked 13th and 6th in offense and defense, respectively. The Colts are sitting pretty at 24th and 32nd. Moving on…

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints -6

The Saints just lost to the 0-6 Rams. Do you honestly think they’re losing this game?

New York Jets -1 @ Buffalo Bills

I trust the Jets defense more than I trust the Bills offense. Buffalo’s defense would be amongst the worst in the league if it wasn’t for their mighty turnover differential (they’ve forced 19 turnovers, second most behind the Jets). History and the laws of statistics say that Buffalo’s turnover differential returns to the mean.

Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys -10

Can someone explain how Tony Romo didn’t even target wide receivers Dez Bryant and Miles Austin last Sunday against the Eagles until the second half? He realizes it’s arguably the best pass catching tandem in the league, right?

Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans -11

After reading THIS about the Brown’s offense, I’ll struggle to favor them again the rest of the season. I mean, seriously?

San Francisco 49ers -5 @ Washington Redskins

Wasn’t that 3-1 start fun? The Redskins have been outscored 76-33 since the fast start, including being shut out by the Buffalo Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans -1

Another gut feeling. Tennessee isn’t as bad as they’ve shown the past couple of weeks.

Denver Broncos @ Oakland Raiders -4

As long as Tim Tebow keeps doing Tim Tebow like things (meaning throwing wildly inaccurate passes, taking comical amounts of sacks, and ripping off a handful of spectacular runs per game) I’ll keep picking against the Broncos.

New York Giants @ New England Patriots -6

The blueprint for beating the Patriots: play lots of man coverage, pressure Brady without blitzing, and control the time of possession battle handily. New York can rush the passer with their vaunted front four, but their pass defense is a middling 15th in the NFL.

St. Louis Rams +7 @ Arizona Cardinals

Kevin Kolb is listed as doubtful for Sunday, which means John Skelton will get his first start of the season. In five games last season, Skelton completed 47.6 percent of his passes for 662 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. He averaged less than four yards per pass attempt in two games. I rest my case.

Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ San Diego Chargers

Michael Lombardi had this money quote in his Wednesday column, “A few years ago the Chargers gained a reputation for being an extremely talented team that underachieved. But now it seems everyone still thinks they are that elite team, while in reality they are a team in transition, in need of more talent.” I think that sums it up quite succinctly.

Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Historically, this is a close game. But I don’t trust Baltimore’s offense at all. AT ALL. I didn’t before the season, and I surely don’t now.

Chicago Bears @ Philadelphia Eagles -8

Philadelphia has gotten to opposing quarterbacks 22 times—sixth in the league. I fear for Jay Cutler’s life anytime he has to face an elite pass rushing defense.

Upset of the Week: New York Jets OVER Buffalo Bills

Lock of the Week: Pittsburgh Steelers OVER Baltimore Ravens

Pounding of the Week: Houston Texans OVER Cleveland Browns

Last Week: 6-7

Overall: 59-54-7

Can the Patriots Win the Super Bowl?

After fears of a shortened NFL season subsided this summer and visions of Patriot’s football began dancing in my head, I became very excited. Irrationally excited, in fact, because my Patriots looked better than last year, where they went 14-2 only to be shocked by the Jets in the divisional round of the playoffs. As your typical whiny, entitled New England fan, I was DESPERATE for another title, even though the Pats are only seven years removed from their last. Now, at the halfway point of the season, familiar doubts are manifesting themselves, and frankly, the same old issues are appearing right before our eyes.

So what are they?

No ability to beat press coverage…

We’ve heard this on a consistent basis ever since Randy Moss hung up the cleats. With no one to stretch the field and put the fear of god in opponents, defenses can focus solely on press coverage and not worry about receivers getting far up the field. Suddenly, the Patriots are struggling to rack up big plays against elite defenses. Wes Welker can get up the field against the Dolphins and Bills—28th and 17th ranked defenses respectively—but not against the Steelers or Cowboys.

Last Sunday, Pittsburgh stifled New England’s potent attack by playing more man coverage than they ever have before. Dick LeBeau—Pittsburgh’s long-time defensive coordinator—is famed for his zone blitz scheme, considering he practically invented it. Lots of man-to-man coverage isn’t something you often see from a LeBeau-led defense. Yet he knew it was the best way to contain the Patriot’s passing attack after giving up over 30 points to it last year, and it worked. Beautifully. Brady averaged less than six yards per pass and the Patriots had only one “big play” of over twenty yards.

If one of the most renowned defensive minds in history changes his entire scheme because he knows how to beat you, that’s probably not a good thing.

Perfect offensive execution all game, every game…

Matthew Stafford tosses a 50 yard bomb to Calvin Johnson at least once per game, usually when he’s bracketed by two defenders. It always works. Aaron Rodgers occasionally rolls out of the pocket and rockets a pass to one of his 67 viable receiving options down the field for a huge gain. Cam Newton likes to toss long balls to Steve Smith just to see how Smith manages to haul it in and what kind of fight inevitably breaks out between Smith and the poor defensive back in coverage (see: Roman Harper).

Tom Brady hasn’t had the luxury of a game breaking receiver since the Moss era. Brady has Wes Welker, a fast-improving duo of tight ends, and the ever reliable Deion Branch. Welker is fantastic, but he is a slot receiver. 5’9 slot receivers can only do so much. Deion Branch is about as explosive as a Giraffe. As good as tight ends Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez are—which is very—they aren’t beating any cornerbacks on a fly route down the field.

The offense, as far as I can tell, relies on precise route running, an encyclopedic knowledge of the playbook, and a telepathic relationship with the quarterback. Against a zone defense, with good protection, Brady shreds it. They don’t stand a chance. His savvy receivers find the soft spots in the zone, Brady fires precision passes with impeccable timing, and we can all look forward to more Ugg commercials and enlightening Belichick press conferences.

But here’s the problem, when that execution breaks down, when mistakes are made, New England’s offense grinds to a halt. Brady fires short passes through impossibly small windows and the whole operation looks decidedly ugly. It’s like the opposite of the Eagles or Lions—squads that live or die by the big play. Besides Brady—the maestro that controls the operation—there isn’t a single, jaw-dropping talent on the offensive side of the ball. Sometimes, in a league as even and competitive as the NFL, execution isn’t enough. Sometimes, it all comes down to what the body can accomplish, not the mind. The Patriots lack the sort of game-breaking skill position player the Eagles, Lions, and Chargers seem to have in abundance. Not every defense has the personnel to follow Pittsburgh’s blueprint, but when they do, the Patriots don’t stand a chance.

Perennially Spinning the "Wheel of Mediocre Cornerbacks"
Besides Devin McCourty and Pat Chung, can you name anyone else in the Patriot’s secondary? Have you ever heard of Kyle Arrington, Antwaun Molden, Phillip Adams, and James Ihedigbo? If you haven’t, don’t feel bad. I’m also trying hard to acquaint myself with New England’s secondary, only it has been difficult because it changes week to week.

Considering the Patriots have spent 11 picks in the first three rounds of the draft over the past five seasons on defensive players, and only three are currently starting, it’s no wonder the defense blows chunks. Occasionally, teams hit it big with undrafted players and low-round draft picks, but generally (and I do stress generally), players are picked high in the draft for a reason: they are very talented. New England has managed to whiff on the majority of high round defensive picks, and all those players picked off the scrap heap aren’t working out. Somehow, I’m not surprised.

Not enough pressure on the opposing quarterback…

It’s the fourth year of the defensive rebuilding project, and it’s the fourth year without a pass rush. Year after year pundits predict the Pats will select a pass rushing linebacker or defensive linemen in the first couple rounds of the draft, and draft after draft they disappoint. Why do the Patriots neglect this gaping hole in the roster every year? The answer is they don’t…they just turn to free agency rather than the draft. Belichick seems to prefer aging defensive lineman and other castoffs and misfits to high-grade pass rushing talent. I have no explanation. Seriously, I don’t. But mediocre secondary play and a non-existent pass rush is a dreadful combination. Season-killing in fact.

The cold hard truth…

You’d think Devin McCourty, coming off of a Pro Bowl rookie season, would be able to shake his super sophomore slump. You’d think the return of All-Pro middle linebacker Jerod Mayo would provide a huge boost to the defense. Hell, you’d almost think Albert Haynesworth would be able to regain some of his old mojo. In short, you’d think New England’s defense will be a stronger unit over the last nine games of the season than the first seven. That’s the good, but the bad? Read on…

The Jets, in last year’s divisional showdown, unveiled the blueprint for containing the Patriot’s offense. Play man coverage, be physical with the receivers, get pressure on Brady without blitzing, and keep them off the field with your offense so Brady and Belichick don’t have enough time to figure it out. Easier said than done, I know, but there are a handful of teams with the personnel to do so. Those teams happen to be a strong Super Bowl contender and a division rival. New England’s offense couldn’t do anything against the Jets in last year's playoffs, and then faced with a similar game plan against the Steelers, once again looked lost.

They say you should never make the same mistake twice. Well, the Patriots did, and they have yet to convince anyone they wouldn’t make it a third time…or a fourth…or a fifth…